Kevin Mackay
Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Sure, Ken. With regards to the first part of your question on floating storage, it’s interesting on the crude side of the ledger. It’s really a tale of two different sort of stories. One, the VLCCs, and interestingly, they have maintained a fairly steady level of vessels in that play. At the peak of the market, you had 84 VLCCs, and I think as of last week, there was some 87. So, it dropped a little bit in mid-summer and then pick up again. So, on the B side of the ledger, I would say it’s fairly steady. Where we have seen the declines has been on the Suezmaxes and Aframaxes. And as a relative comparison, you had over 80 Aframaxes that were in storage at the peak in May. And I think, now the latest figure is down sort of in the low 20s, 23, 24 at last count. Certainly, Suezmaxes were down about 60% from where we were at the peak. So, the midsize spaces, given that the cost per barrel storage on those is obviously higher than the VLCC, those are the first classes of ships that you’ve seen unwind. And that’s why I think you’ve seen midsize rates on Suezmaxes come off earlier than what you saw the VLCCs come off. In terms of the typical pickup in seasonality, a lot of it will depend on weather. And we’ve had Q4s that have picked up earlier than now. But, typically, you run into -- when you start getting delays in places like the Bosphorus Canal, you start getting the fog rolling in and out of the U.S. Gulf. That tends to come up the works, logistics, especially on the Aframax, but also on the Suezmaxes. And that sort of eats into supply and at least puts a floor, if not bolsters the supply dynamic, which we’re hoping to get some of during these winter months. But, so far, it’s been relatively benign. I think, the hurricane season has extended longer than we’ve seen in recent years. So, perhaps the fog season in the U.S. Gulf will be a little bit delayed this year. We’ll have to wait and see.