Kevin Mackay
Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead
Thank you, [Doug]. Hello, everyone and thank you very much for joining us today. With me here in Vancouver is Vince Lok, Teekay Tankers' Chief Financial Officer; and Brian Fortier, Group Controller of Teekay Corporation. During today’s call, I will be taking you through Teekay Tankers’ fourth quarter and fiscal year 2015 earnings results presentation, which can be found on our website. Beginning with our recent highlights on Slide 3 of the presentation. During the fourth quarter Teekay Tankers generated strong free cash flow and adjusted earnings recording one of the company's strongest quarters since inception. Teekay Tankers reported adjusted net income of $0.31 per share in the fourth quarter, an increase of 48% in same period of the prior year. The increase is primarily due to stronger spot tanker rates and an increase in fleet size related to the acquisition of 19 modern, mid-size tankers during 2015 and the continued expansion of the company’s in-chartered portfolio in 2015. Although it was a strong result the fourth quarter net income was negatively impacted by a few non-recurring and timing differences related to revenues, vessel operating expenses and G&A expenses totaling approximately $8 million or $0.05 per share. Some of these variances are explained in more detail in the appendix of this presentation. We generated free cash flow of $74 million or $0.48 per share during the quarter, up from $31.7 million or $0.35 per share in the same period of prior year. In December Teekay Tankers announced and implemented a new variable dividend policy and declared a fourth quarter dividend of $0.12 per share up from $0.03 per share in the previous quarter which was paid on February 12th. We're also pleased to announce the acquisition of two modern purpose-built Lightering Aframax tankers in mid December for a total purchase price of $80 million, which complements our recent ship-to-ship transfer business acquisition and further expands our presence in the strategic U.S. Gulf region. Lastly in January we completed the previously announced five-year $900 million long-term debt facility to refinance the majority of the company's fleet. I'll provide more details of this later in the presentation. Turning to Slide 4, I'll discuss our new variable dividend policy. Under our new policy we intend to pay out 30% to 50% of the company's quarterly adjusted net income subject to reserves the Board may determine are necessary for the prudent operation of the company. We'll maintain a minimum quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share. Based on new policy, we significantly increased our fourth quarter cash dividend from $0.03 per share to $0.12. As the two graphs below illustrate, the new policy provides investors the opportunity to directly participate in the strong earnings from the tanker market, while maintaining our ability to delever the balance sheet. We believe this balanced policy will maximize total shareholder returns. The graph on the left shows our projected annual dividend range at payouts of between 30% and 50% of adjusted net income based on varying Aframax equivalents spot TCEs and our current fleet. This illustrates the company's high operating leverage as dividends paid to shareholders increase significantly with rising spot market rates. The graph on the right highlights Teekay Tankers' success in delevering the balance sheet over the past two years from 72% in the fourth quarter of 2013 to 55% by the end of the fourth quarter of 2015. Even with an increased dividend payout under the new policy we project that leverage will decrease to between 40% and 46% by the end of 2016 assuming a 40% dividend payout and Aframax equivalent spot TCEs between $25,000 and $35,000 per day. Delevering remains a top priority as they add shareholders' value by increasing net asset value and providing the company with financial flexibility. Turning to Slide 5, I will expand on how Teekay Tankers is expanding its strategic presence in the U.S. Gulf. During the fourth quarter we built on our recent ship-to-ship transfer business acquisition and expanded our U.S. Gulf and expanded our U.S. Gulf presence by adding three purpose-built Lightering Aframax tankers to our fleet. In December we completed the acquisition of two Lightering Aframax tankers, the Navigator Spirit and the SPT Explorer from Teekay Offshore Partners for an aggregate purchase price of $80 million and in-chartered for five years another Lightering Aframax tanker, which is scheduled to deliver between February and March this year. The acquisition was financed through a combination of the assumption of an attractively priced $50 million revolving credit facility from the seller and the company's existing liquidity. These acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to Teekay Tankers' earnings and free cash flow per share. Both of these transactions position Teekay Tankers well to take advantage of developing import and export activities in the U.S. Gulf related to the recent removal of export restrictions on U.S. crude oil which I'll touch on later in the presentation. Turning to Slide 6, I will highlight the details of our new debt facility. In January of this year, we completed our new five-year $900 million facility, which includes term loan and revolving credit facility components. The new facility which was 1.4 times oversubscribed is used to refinance 36 of the company's existing vessels, including 17 vessels acquired during 2015 that were financed with two bridge loans that mature in early 2016, and the company's main corporate revolving credit facility that was scheduled to mature in 2017. We decided to secure a larger facility at an attractive rate of LIBOR plus 200 basis points to refinance both our near term debt maturities and our main corporate revolver in order to extend the company's debt maturity profile and provide financial flexibility. A graph at the bottom of this slide shows our debt repayment profile before and after refinancing. As can be seen, our scheduled repayments are being extended over the next five years in comparison to our previous profile which had a majority of debt coming due over the next two years. Turning to Slide 7, we look at developments in the crude tanker spot market. 2015 developed into the strongest market since 2008 as low fleet growth and surging demand combined to provide consistently strong rates throughout the year. Starting with the supply side, the overall tanker fleet grew by approximately 3.3% in 2015. However fleet growth was weighted towards the product tanker sectors with the crude tanker fleet growing by a more modest 2%. Looking at mid-size sectors, the Suezmax fleet grew by just under 2% in 2015, while the [un-coded] Aframax fleet was unchanged from previous year. Although fleet growth was certainly a contributor to the strong rates last year, main catalysts came from tanker demand side. Global oil production increased by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2015, the highest level of supply growth in 11 years. The increase in supply from OPEC was particularly beneficial to the crude tanker market with Saudi Arabia and Iraq supplying an additional 1 million barrels per day between them. As Middle East OPEC countries are located far from the main refining centers in the U.S., Europe and the Far East, an increase in OPEC crude supply is generally positive for tanker ton mile demand. On the demand side global oil consumption grew by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2015, the highest growth rate since the post-financial crisis rebound in 2010. One of the main drivers of this strong demand growth was low oil prices which averaged just $52 per barrel last year. This was the lowest average oil price seen in 11 years, which stimulated higher consumption of refined products particularly for gasoline. Low oil prices led to a number of additional benefits for the crude tanker market including higher refineries throughput, taking advantage of strong refining margins, an increase in commercial and strategic stockpiling and lower bunker fuel costs which led to significantly lower operating costs and stronger earnings for tanker owners. Turning to Slide 8, take a look at demand fundamentals for the year ahead. We believe that many of the strong demand fundamentals which drove tanker rates higher in 2015 will remain in place during 2016. Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2016. While this is a decrease from the 1.7 million barrels per day of gross seen last year, it is above the average growth rate of about 1 million barrels per day seen over the last decade. Similarly global oil production is expected to remain high with the potential for even higher volumes from OPEC as Iranian production increases following the lifting of sanctions. The Iranian government has stated that they could raise production by up to 1 million barrels per day in 2016, though most analysts see an increase of 0.5 million barrels per day as being more realistic. This additional oil will add to crude export volumes while also helping to keep oil prices low. Looking at the balance between oil supply and demand, the expectation is for another year of oversupply in 2016, meaning more oil heading into inventories. As the chart on the top right of the slide shows, global oil inventories are projected to build at 370 million barrels according to IEA estimates which is more than the theoretical amount of available storage capacity. As such we believe that ullage delays will continue to be a factor in 2016 while demand for floating storage may also emerge as storage capacity limits are reached in certain regions. In fact we've already seen inquiries for floating storage in the U.S. Gulf as inventories in the region have topped 250 million barrels, pushing the WTI curve into a steep contango. The use of ships as floating storage removes vessels from the spot trading fleet, thus tightening the supply-demand balance and leading to an increase in rates. Finally a significant oversupply of oil in 2016 should keep bunker fuel costs low, which means continued low operating costs for tanker owners. Overall the demand side fundamentals appear very favorable for tankers in 2016. Turning to Slide 9, we look at the changing trade dynamics for mid-size tankers in light of lifting of the U.S. crude oil export ban and the impending completion of the Panama Canal expansion project. In late 2015, the U.S. lifted the ban on oil exports which have been in place since the 1970s. The U.S. is now free to export crude to international markets with the most likely destinations being to Europe on Aframaxes and to Asia on both Aframaxes and Suezmaxes by an expanded Panama Canal which is scheduled to be completed in June 2016. While the initial volumes of U.S. crude exports have been quite limited thus far, with just a few test cargos being sold, the biggest impact has been seen on U.S. crude imports which perhaps counter intuitively have increased since the crude export ban has been lifted. This is because of price of WTI in early January increased to parity with Brent crude meaning if seaborne crude imports into the U.S. Atlantic Coast became more economical, than well movements of domestic shale oil from Bakken. These changes illustrate some fluid trade dynamics which are developing for mid-size tankers, with U.S. crude imports and exports expected to fluctuate depending on the relative arbitrages between U.S. shale oil and different grades of international crude. For U.S. Gulf refiners this gives the ability to export some of the light sweet crude which is less suitable for the U.S. Gulf region refineries, taking in more heavy crudes from places such as Venezuela and the Middle East. We believe that these changes will benefit the U.S. Gulf ship-to-ship transfer market as more lightering vessels will be required to accommodate the influx of larger deep draft vessels carrying heavy crude from afar. Conversely an increase in crude exports from the U.S. Gulf could then lead to increased requirements for the reverse lightering whereby small parcels of crude are transferred to larger vessels for more economic export to international markets. The expansion of the Panama Canal from Q2 of this year should also be a positive for the mid-size tanker sector as it creates transshipment opportunities for Aframaxes and LR2s. This could include U.S. crude moving west to Asian markets as well as West Coast South American crudes moving into the Caribbean and vice versa. In sum we believe that these developments are very positive for mid-size tanker demand and believe that Teekay Tankers as the world's leading operator and owner of mid-sized tankers is well positioned to capitalize on the changing trade dynamics in both the Atlantic and Pacific regions going forward. Turning to Slide 10, we present our outlook for tanker fleet utilization in 2016. As you can see from the chart on the slide, tanker fleet utilization increased by 4 percentage points to approximately 89% in 2015, as tanker demand growth far outstripped supply. For 2016 we anticipate that supply and demand will be more closely matched with approximately 4% to 5% growth in each. This means that fleet utilization should remain steady at close to 2015 levels indicating another year of relatively firm tanker rates. Looking further ahead we acknowledge that there's significant fleet growth to come in the Suezmax sector in 2017. However, we believe that further ordering would be limited as owners now face a costly NOx Tier III compliance requirements which adds an additional $2 million to $3 million to the price of newbuildings. In addition, a tighter credit environment and a lack of private equity interest should act to dampen newbuilding orders. To this point through the start of the year there has been no new tanker orders placed which bodes well for tanker fleet growth post 2017. Finally we have taken a relatively conservative view to scrapping in our fleet forecast assumptions given the low levels we saw during 2015. However we believe there could be upside to scrapping in the coming 24 months for vessels 15 years and older as a result of the entry into force of Ballast Water Treatment legislation which places significant cost expenditure on vessels docking in these later years of their service life where owners may not see the economic benefit of that added CapEx. Turning to Slide 11, I'll provide an update on spot tanker rates for the first quarter of 2016 to-date. Compared to the average realized rates in the fourth quarter of 2015, the first quarter of 2016 to-date remains strong. Based on approximately 63% and 54% spot revenue days booked Teekay Tankers' first quarter rates Suezmax and Aframax [per deals] have averaged approximately $41,000 and $28,100 per day respectively. While for the LR2 segment with approximately 54% revenue days booked our first quarter to-date bookings trended slightly higher with the rates on average increasing to approximately $27,000 per day compared to $26,500 per day last quarter. We believe Teekay Tankers will continue to benefit from ongoing strength in the tanker market reflected by solid fundamentals. With the completion of our strategic acquisitions and Teekay Tankers strong operating leverage we believe the volatility in the tanker spot market will continue to translate into strong earnings and cash flow for 2016. Turning to Slide 12, I think it's important to review what Teekay Tankers has been able to achieve and accomplish during the past year. In 2015 Teekay Tankers focused on building our core segments on aligning sea and shore capabilities to drive operational excellence, which has been the foundation of the Teekay brand for over 40 years. We expanded and modernized our core segments by investing approximately $1 billion in 19 modern Suezmaxes and Aframaxes and LR2 tankers reducing the average age of our fleet by two years. This increase in scale is supplemented by a well timed 15 vessel in-charter fleet adding exposure to a strengthening spot freight market and resulting in additional net income of approximately $42 million in 2015. We have refocused our customer strategy by taking back more direct management of our technical operations and consolidating all of our fleets commercial management under the Teekay name. We also added in these services that I mentioned, is the purchase and integration of a ship-to-ship transfer business, expanding capabilities and our presence in the strategically important U.S. Gulf region. The consolidation of the Teekay brand through these strategic moves allows us to offer our customers a more direct Teekay engagement and experience and allows us to provide a higher quality of service. These moves are being very well received by our customers and our consolidated approach is already starting to show benefits in the form of better commercial information flow and new business opportunities. We have continued to strengthen our financial position and increased net asset value through our commitment to reducing our financial leverage down from 72% two years ago to 55% as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2015. Further we have rewarded shareholders by enhancing our dividend policy to an earnings based variables dividend that should significantly increase the dividend payout in 2016. Lastly we increased our financial flexibility by refinancing the majority of our fleet through a new $900 million debt facility which has extended our debt repayment profile out to 2021. While 2015 was a very busy year for Teekay Tankers, we believe it was an transformational one. We are confident that the levels -- the levers that we have deployed and the strategy that we have initiated has transformed the company into a much larger, better organized and more customer facing organization that stands on a significantly stronger financial foundation. This positions us well to maximize benefits of our core markets and continue to provide enhanced shareholder value. With that operator we are now available to take questions.