Kevin Mackay
Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead
Thank you, Cameron [ph]. Hello, everyone and thank you very much for joining us today. With me here in Vancouver is Vince Lok, Teekay Tankers’ Chief Financial Officer and Brian Fortier, Group Controller of Teekay Corporation. During today’s call, I will be taking you through Teekay Tankers’ third quarter of 2015 earnings results presentation, which can be found on our website. Beginning with our recent highlights on Slide 3 of the presentation, Teekay Tankers reported adjusted net income of $0.30 per share in the third quarter, a substantial increase from the third quarter of 2014 adjusted net income of just $0.03 per share. Improved results were primarily due to stronger tanker spot rates combined with an increase in our spot tanker fleet, as a result of the acquisition and delivery of modern vessels during the first nine months of the year and an increase in our in-charter portfolio. We generated free cash flow of $59.4 million, or $0.44 per share during the quarter, up from $16.2 million or $0.19 per share in the third quarter of 2014. In early August, we announced strategic acquisition of 12 modern Suezmax tankers for a total cost of $662 million and completed the delivery of all 12 vessels in just under 9 weeks, with the last vessel delivering into our fleet on October 15. In addition, we also completed the acquisition of a leading global ship-to-ship transfer business, SPT, for $45.5 million. I will provide an update on the integration of these acquisitions later in the presentation. With the well-timed acquisition of the 12 Suezmax tankers, which will increase our Suezmax operating days, we expect to generate significant free cash flow in what we anticipate to be a strong winter tanker market. Turning to the Slide 4, I will discuss the execution of our two strategic acquisitions. Teekay Tankers emerged as the successful bidder of the Principal Maritime Suezmax fleet at an attractive en bloc price of $662 million. Our track record for seamlessly completing large scale S&P transaction was key to our winning bid. Following the transaction announcement, we assimilated all 12 vessels into TNK’s platform over span of only 9 weeks. This in itself was no easy feat given there were 12 individual purchase transactions, registry filings and other delivery verticals, which were required before the vessels could be fully assimilated into our fleet. The successful delivery of these vessels in such a short timeframe speaks to the exceptional cross-functional expertise held within Teekay Tankers. In addition to the 3 Suezmax tankers that required scheduled drydocking this year, in order to maximize long-term earnings, we accelerated the drydock of 5 additional Suezmax tankers, thus negating potentially expensive ballast water treatment modification expenditures until 2019, as well as undertaking some eco modifications to improve the vessels’ fuel efficiencies. I would like to point out that our third quarter results were negatively impacted by this heavier than normal docking schedule as well as the timing difference related to the issuance of new common shares early in the third quarter in connection with the Principal Maritime and SPT acquisitions. All told, these timing differences reduced our third quarter earnings by approximately $0.05 per share. On the table on the right hand side, we have detailed the number of ships as well as ship equivalents in the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 to show the impact of these drydocks and to highlight that the majority of these vessels will be out of drydock and operating for the bulk of the anticipated strong winter tanker market. For a detailed schedule of TNK’s docking through 2016, I refer you to Appendix on Page 11 of this presentation. Significant increase in our fleet from 17 vessels we have acquired in the past year will allow us to gain further economies of scale and reductions in our G&A going forward. Moving on to our other acquisition, we have commenced integration of the ship-to-ship transfer business acquired in July. We have realized cost synergies associated with combining certain functions and are in the process of re-branding SPT into Teekay Marine Solutions. This acquisition is expected to contribute future revenue synergies as we integrate the acquisition into TNK’s well-established platform. Both of these strategic acquisitions will be accretive to earnings and cash flow per share and we are excited for TNK to begin realizing the full benefits of these transactions in the coming quarters. Turning to Slide 5, I will discuss how Teekay Tankers continues to execute on its strategy while delivering the shareholder value. As shown in the graph on the left, we have been increasing Teekay Tankers’ net asset value by de-levering our balance sheet. Our financial leverage has significantly decreased over the past two years from a high of 72% in the third quarter of 2013 to 53% as of September 30 this year. Looking at the chart on the right, our vessel acquisitions and in-charter vessels have translated into significantly more favorable operating leverage. For every $5,000 per day increase in spot rates, Teekay Tankers’ free cash flow increases by approximately $0.57 per share with the delivery of our newly acquired Suezmax tankers into the spot market and strong rates going into 2016, we expect to continue earning significant free cash flow, which will help further reduce our balance sheet leverage to a more appropriate level. With our continued success in de-levering the balance sheet, we plan to review Teekay Tankers’ dividend policy with our Board of Directors in December 2015. Turning to Slide 6, we look at developments in the crude tanker spot market. Crude tanker spot rates softened slightly in the third quarter, which is consistent with the seasonal weakness we traditionally see at this time of year as refineries head into a period of scheduled maintenance. However, rates remained strong on a historical basis as illustrated by the chart on the left, which shows average third quarter spot rates over the past six years. Suezmax rates averaged over $12,000 per day higher than the same period in 2014, while third quarter Aframax rates averaged $7,000 per day higher. These higher rates reflected the strong industry fundamentals, which continue to underpin the tanker market, namely low fleet growth, low oil prices, strong refining margins and strategic and commercial stockpiling. Looking at the chart on the right, tanker rates began to strengthen again towards the end of the third quarter, led by the VLCC sector, which saw rates exceeding $100,000 per day in late September and early October. The high VLCC rates stem from an increase in Chinese demand for Middle Eastern, West African and North Sea barrels along with weather and port delays in Asia and a significant increase in crude loadings from South Iraq. Although earnings in the midsize sectors initially lagged VLCCs, we have now started to see an increase in both Suezmax and Aframax earnings, with rates climbing in the past couple of weeks to the highest levels seen since July. Turning to Slide 7, we look at our expectations for the upcoming winter market, which we believe will be strong due to both fundamental and seasonal factors. Looking first at the fundamentals the IEA forecasts global oil demand to increase by about 250,000 barrels per day during the fourth quarter as shown by the graph on the left. The increase in demand is largely due to the combination of colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere and the conclusion of refinery maintenance. While Chinese oil demand softened slightly in the third quarter, imports remained steady at about 6.7 million barrels per day. This suggest that stockpiling programs are providing underlying support to the Asian tanker market as the Chinese government looks to take advantage of low oil prices by adding to its strategic petroleum reserves or SPRs. In addition, the relaxation of import restrictions for Chinese independent or so-called teapot refineries could increase crude imports into China and lead to a diversification of supply sources for Chinese crude imports. Such diversification may be a positive driver for both Aframax and Suezmax demand specifically as these new market entrants look to source smaller parcel sizes directly from regional producers. Looking at the chart on the right, we see that strongest months for crude tanker rates are typically December and January. And we therefore, anticipate that the best is still ahead of us in terms of tanker earnings. Seasonal factors such as winter weather and transit delays typically build during the fourth quarter, particularly as daylight hour shorten and we see more fog in major tanker thoroughfares such as the Bosphorus Straits and the Houston Ship Channel. In addition, we are already seeing port delays in areas such as Northwest Europe and China due to intermittent discharge and ullage issues, which is further helping to tighten tonnage supply and provide increased volatility to rates. Putting together the combined impact of seasonal factors with continued low oil prices, driving strong oil demand and limited fleet growth, we expect the firm winter tanker market through the remainder of the fourth quarter and into the early part of 2016 marked by periods of high rate volatility. Turning to Slide 8, I will provide an update on spot tanker rates for the fourth quarter to-date. Compared to average realized rates on the third – for the third quarter of 2015, Suezmax, Aframax and LR2 rates for the fourth quarter of 2015 to-date have been lower. However most recently, mid-size crude tanker rates have strengthened and have remained firm into the November fixing window. As the darker grey bars in the graph illustrates fourth quarter rates to-date across all three segments are already higher in 2015 when compared to the fourth quarter of 2014 actual results. Increased seasonal demand as well as ongoing stockpiling programs should continue to support strengthening in spot rates, ultimately improving our fourth quarter earnings in the Aframax and Suezmax segments. To illustrate this, we have highlighted the red dotted areas in the graph, which represents projected fourth quarter earnings when our bookings to-date are combined with current estimated forward rates for our unfixed fourth quarter vessel base. With the assimilation of our strategic acquisitions well underway and Teekay Tankers’ strong operating leverage and increased spot exposure, we are confident that the continued strengthening of spot rates will translate into a significant increase in our earnings and cash flow through this winter rally. With that Operator, we are now available to take questions.