Peter Evensen
Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead
Thank you, Ryan. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Teekay Corporation’s fourth quarter and fiscal year 2015 earnings and business outlook conference call. I’m joined this morning for our Q&A session by our CFO, Vince Lok; Chief Strategy Officer, Kenneth Hvid; and our Group Controller, Brian Fortier. During our call today, we will be taking you through the earnings and business outlook presentation, which can be found on our website. Turning to Slide 3 of the presentation, I’ll briefly review some recent highlights for Teekay Corporation. During the fourth quarter, we generated consolidated cash flow from vessel operations or CFVO at $401.4 million, an increase of 30% over the same period of the prior year. During 2015, we generated consolidated cash flow of $1.4 billion, an increase of 35% from 2014. For the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2015, Teekay Corporation reported adjusted net income attributable to shareholders of $29.8 million or $0.41 per share, and $68.1 million or $0.94 per share respectively. During 2015, we recorded the highest fiscal year adjusted net income since 2008. The strong cash flow growth and earnings were driven mainly by the delivery and acquisition of various growth projects during 2015, including our largest FPSO project to date, the Knarr FPSO, tanker fleet growth and the highest spot tanker rates in seven years. The decision in December to temporarily reduce Teekay Corporation’s dividend to $0.055 per share was a direct result of temporary cash distribution reductions by our two MLPs, Teekay Offshore and Teekay LNG. We believe the reductions are in the best interest of long-term investors as the reallocation of a significant portion of our internally generated cash flows to fund our two MLPs profitable growth projects scheduled to deliver over the next several years will result in higher available distributable cash flow per unit in the future. I’ll touch more on this later in the presentation. Turning to Slide 4, I’ll review some recent highlights from our three publicly-traded Daughter Entities. For the fourth quarter Teekay LNG partners generated just over a $121 million, an increase of 6% from the previous quarter. For the fourth quarter, Teekay LNG partners declared a cash distribution of $0.14 per unit, which Teekay Parent received $3.8 million for the quarter. In December, Teekay LNG achieved a significant milestone, the partnerships first LNG regasification project, which includes an attractive 20-year charter for one of the partnership’s existing MEGI LNG carrier newbuildings. In addition, the partnership signed a 20-year contract to develop an LNG regasification project in the Kingdom of Bahrain as part of a consortium with Samsung, C&T and Gulf Investment Corporation. The project in which Teekay LNG will have a 30% ownership stake will comprise of floating storage unit, an offshore LNG receiving jetty and breakwater, an adjacent regasification platform, subsea gas pipelines from the platform to shore, an onshore gas receiving facility and an onshore nitrogen production facility, and is expected to commence operations in July of 2018. For the fourth quarter, Teekay offshore partners generated CFVO of $173 million, an increase of 20% from the previous quarter. For the fourth quarter, Teekay offshore partners declared a cash distribution of $0.11 per unit, representing $4.2 million received by Teekay Parent. Since our conference call in December, Teekay offshore has nearly completed the sale of its four remaining non-core conventional tankers for $130 million, creating approximately $60 million of liquidity, of which $30 million was secured in December. Teekay Tankers continues to generate strong free cash flow, $74 million or $0.48 per share in the quarter. This strength was driven by firm underlying fundamentals coupled with seasonal and one-off beneficial factors. The fourth quarter saw the onset of winter weather delays, including an increase in transit time through the Turkish Straits and fog in the U.S. gulf. Ullage-related delays resulted in increased waiting time to discharge ports due to logistical constraints, which further added to rate volatility in the quarter. In December, Teekay tankers announced and implemented a new variable dividend policy under which Teekay Tankers intends to pay out 30% to 50% of the company’s quarterly adjusted net income, while maintaining a minimum quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share. So for the fourth quarter, Teekay Tankers declared a dividend of $0.12 per share, an increase of 300% from the previous quarter, which was paid on February 12. Based on Teekay Corporation’s ownership of shares, Teekay Parent received a cash dividend of $4.8 million. In January, Teekay Tankers completed the previously announced five-year $900 million long-term facility to refinance a majority of the company’s fleet. The new facility includes a term loan and revolving credit components which were used to refinance 36 of the company’s existing vessels, including 17 vessels acquired during 2015 that were financed with bridge loan facilities that matured in early 2016, and other vessels previously financed with the company’s primary revolving credit facility which was scheduled to mature in 2017. So this new facility extends TNK’s debt maturity profile and provides financial flexibility in the future. Lastly, during the fourth quarter Teekay Tankers built on its recent ship-to-ship transfer acquisition of SPT and expanded its U.S. gulf presence through the acquisition and chartering-in of three purpose-built Lightering Aframax tankers. In mid December, the company acquired two Lightering Aframax tankers, the SPT Explorer and Navigator Spirit, from Teekay Offshore Partners for an aggregate purchase price of $80 million. And it chartered-in for five years another Lightering Aframax tanker, which is scheduled to deliver between February and March of 2016. Turning to Slide 5, I’d like to take the opportunity to revisit the strategic rationale for the dividend cut we announced in December. As a flow-through dividend payer, Teekay Corporation temporarily cut its dividend by 90% in response to the temporary 80% cuts announced by Teekay Offshore and Teekay LNG. We made the difficult decision to increase reserves for the proper conduct of their businesses. Unlike most dividend cuts that generally coincide with weak business outlooks and declining operating cash flows, the cuts announced by Teekay LNG and Teekay Offshore were in response to the disconnect we witnessed between the capital market and the relative stability of our LNG and offshore businesses. Our bond and unit prices declined precipitously in line with the oil price declines, making external capital prohibitively expensive. The decision was made to reduce our reliance on the expensive capital markets, preferring instead to rely in our cheapest source of cash flow, i.e., the cash generated by the large portfolio fixed rate contracts at each MLP. The distribution reductions will enable Teekay LNG and Teekay Offshore to collectively retain approximately $450 million in cash flow per annum, which will be used to fund future growth projects. By relying on our internally generated cash flow, we are able to avoid issuing equity that would have been permanently dilutive to all unitholders. In addition, with the volatility experienced in the public markets over the past 6 to 12 months, our ability to access the capital markets was highly uncertain, whereas the internally generated cash flow can be relied upon to fund growth CapEx and for delevering. Because we are retaining a substantial portion of our cash flow, we believe this strategy will facilitate our access to other non-equity sources of capital, including banks, bonds and preferred equity. Another benefit of the distribution reductions is that we expect Teekay Corp., Teekay Offshore and Teekay LNG will be better positioned when energy and capital markets improve. By not issuing units in order to grow we expect to have higher distributable cash flow per unit in both MLPs, which creates greater capacity to increase dividends in the future, and ultimately the value of Teekay Corporation’s GP interests. Turning to Slide 6, despite the challenging macro energy environment affecting our customers, the Teekay Group’s cash flows are expected to remain relatively strong, supported by a diverse portfolio of fee-based contract revenues focused on the production side of the energy supply chain. With an unrivaled backlog of over $21 billion of forward fee-based revenues, our offshore and gas businesses continue to generate relatively stable and predictable cash flows from a wide cross-section of blue-chip customers. Each of our major business lines has an average remaining contract tenure, which provides stability for many years. Turning to Slide 7, we provided Teekay Offshore’s proportionally consolidated estimate of run rate 2017 CFVO, incorporating the delivery of our growth projects over the next two years and the impact of our cost-saving initiatives, which more than offset lost cash flows from vessel sales and the Varg FPSO contract termination related to a termination right that is specific to the Varg FPSO contract, which I touched upon at Teekay Offshore’s earning conference call earlier today. CFVO is expected to increase from the implementation of various cost-saving initiatives that will translate into OpEx and G&A cost-savings and the delivery of TOO’s portfolio growth projects, including the Petrojarl I FPSO, that is scheduled to commence its five-year contract with QGEP in the third quarter of 2016. The delivery of four state-of-the-art long-distance towing vessels throughout 2016; the Gina Krog FSO that is scheduled to commence charter contract with Statoil in the first-half of 2017; the Libra FPSO that is scheduled to commence its 12-year contract in early 2017 in Brazil; and the delivery of the first two newbuilding shuttle contractors - shuttle tankers, excuse me, that will operate on a 15-year contract in East Coast Canada. These increases more than offset the lost cash flows from the sale of the conventional tankers, the three older shuttle tankers and the Varg FPSO contract, which contributed annual CFVO of approximately $50 million. The combination of these factors is expected to result in run rate 2017 CFVO of approximately $860 million on a fully delivered basis, which represents an increase of 27%. Turning to Slide 8, we provided Teekay LNG’s projected run rate CFVO, including the proportionate share from its equity accounted investment. We currently anticipate CFVO run rate of approximately $470 million, and we expect this to be relatively stable, increasing moderately as we take delivery of the Cheniere LNG carriers, and begin to take delivery of TGP’s other MEGI LNG carriers in 2017. Partially offset this year by the one-year deferral of a significant portion of charter payments on our 252% owned LNG carriers on fixed-rate charter to the Yemen LNG project, related to the political unrest in Yemen and the subsequent closing of the LNG facility, which I touched upon in more detail on Teekay LNG earnings call earlier today, and the planned sale of one of its conventional tankers next year. Given the back-loaded, end-loaded nature of TGP’s newbuilding delivers, Teekay LNG’s run rate CFVO will begin to ramp up post 2017, when we expect to add an incremental $250 million of annual run rate CFVO by 2020. We provided a more detailed breakdown of our 2016 and 2017 run rate CFVO forecast for Teekay Offshore and Teekay LNG by segment from our consolidated and equity accounted vessels in the appendix to this presentation. Turning to Slide 9, I wanted to provide a summary of Teekay Parent’s remaining owned and chartered-in assets. Starting with Teekay Parent’s owned asset. The Banff FPSO is currently operating on the Banff Field in the North Sea, is operating under our life field contract with an expected firm period out to December 2019 with C&R. The Hummingbird Spirit is currently operating on the Chestnut field in the North Sea under a firm period contract out to March 31, 2017, unless terminated for convenience at any time with 90 days’ notice from Centrica Energy. We’re currently in discussions to extend the existing contract as well as to pursue new charter contract opportunities. The Foinaven FPSO is currently operating in the North Sea under a firm period contract out to December 2021 with BP. We’re currently in discussions with BP to extend that existing contract further. The Foinaven FPSO restarted production in the third quarter of last year, following a planned shutdown and is currently ramping up to its full production rate. The Shoshone VLCC tanker completed its scheduled dry docking in November and commenced an attractive one-year charter contract at $49,000 per day and we’re currently in discussion with our banks to extend the bridge loan facility secured by this vessel beyond May 2016. Lastly, we touched on Teekay Parent’s chartered-in fleet. The Arctic Spirit and Polar Spirit LNG carriers, which are charted-in until the second quarter of 2018, are currently unchartered and are being repositioned to Asia. We’re currently pursuing multiple contract opportunities for these vessels for startup as early as the third quarter of 2016. Turning to Slide 10, we provided a comparative summary of Teekay Parent’s Q4 2015 and Q3 2015 free cash flow. Our total free cash flow is separated into GPCO cash flows comprised of the distributions received from our Daughter Entities, net of corporate G&A and OPCO cash flows of Teekay Parent’s legacy operating assets. GPCO cash flow from daughter distributions in Q4 decreased compared to the prior quarter, primarily due to reductions in distributions from Teekay Offshore and Teekay LNG. Partially offset by an increase in cash dividends received from Teekay Tankers as a result of the implementation of its new variable dividend policy. Corporate G&A was higher in Q4 compared to the prior quarter due to the temporary timing differences in Q3. In Q4, OPCO cash flow decreased to approximately breakeven from $6 million in the prior quarter, primarily due to the timing of dry docking expenditures for the Shoshone Spirit VLCC and two chartered-in shuttle tankers, the Petronordic and Petroatlantic as well as business development and other fees received in Q3, partially offset by the resumption of operations of the Foinaven FPSO after its scheduled maintenance in the previous quarter and the recognition of its operational incentive revenue in Q4. As a result of the above, the total Teekay Parent free cash flow was approximately $9 million or $0.12 per share in Q4 compared to $59.8 million or $0.82 per share in Q3. The Q4 free cash flow was above our new quarterly dividend of $0.055 per share, resulting in a distribution coverage ratio of 2.18 times in the fourth quarter, compared to 1.49 times in the third quarter. Looking ahead, we expect GPCO cash flows to be consistent in Q1 2016 compared to Q4. OPCO cash flows are expected to decrease in Q1 as Q4 included the Foinaven operational incentive revenue recognized annually in the fourth quarter in each year and lost revenues from the Polar and Arctic Spirit LNG carriers. As both of these vessels recently completed their respective charters, partially offset by lower dry-docking expenses. As a result of the above we’re expecting a lower dividend coverage in Q1 2016 compared to Q4. Wrapping up today’s call on Slide 11, we provided our recent sum of the parts calculation, which includes the value of Teekay Parent’s three owned FPSOs and one VLCC tanker and joint-venture and other investment. And Teekay Parent’s equity investments in Teekay LNG, Teekay Offshore, Teekay Tankers, Tanker Investment and Sevan Marine. Our current sum of the parts calculation indicates Teekay’s underlying value at approximately $9 per share, compared to yesterday’s stock price closing of $6.69 per share, representing an attractive entry point at a discounted 28%. In addition, as I highlighted earlier, we believe the temporary dividend distribution reductions are in the best interest of long-term investors as the reallocation of a significant portion of our internally generated cash flow to fund our profitable growth projects scheduled to deliver over the next few years at our two MLPs will ultimately result in higher available distributable cash flow in the future, which creates greater capacity to increase cash distributions in the future, which will benefit Teekay Corporation. As a result, the inherent value of our two GP interests is not currently being reflected in either the current share price or the sum of the parts calculation. Thank you for joining us on the call today. And operator, we’re ready to take questions.