Trevor Fetter
Analyst · A.J. Rice representing UBS
Great, thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased with our performance in the second quarter. We reported $288 million of adjusted EBITDA, well above our expectations and the Street's consensus estimate. These results included a portion of the 30-month California Provider Fee program, which we were able to recognize earlier than we had anticipated. The total amount of EBITDA from the California Provider Fee in the quarter is $47 million, of which $28 million is attributable to other period. If you back that out of Q2, our EBITDA for the quarter is $260 million. We had provided an EBITDA outlook for the second quarter of $225 million to $250 million, and if you exclude the entire $47 million from the Provider Fee on the basis that it was not in our guidance, we came in above the midpoint of our range. When we established our EBITDA outlook for the full year, we anticipated the entire California Provider Fee would be recognized in the fourth quarter. So while it's a positive surprise for the second quarter, the amount of the fee is roughly consistent with our expectations for the full year. The high-level summary of the quarter is that our fundamental business trends in terms of volume growth, pricing and cost control, remain strong. Let me quickly list some of the same-hospital highlights for Q2. Volume growth in all categories compared very favorably with our peers: Adjusted admissions increased by 1.5%; surgeries grew by 4.9%; ER visits grew by 5.0%; and total outpatient visits grew by 5.3%; and roughly 80% of that growth was organic. We achieved our commercial pricing growth objective and our commercial book is solid. And again, we demonstrated strong cost control, including a 2.3% decline in supply cost per adjusted admissions due to -- largely to efforts around our Medicare Performance Initiative. Taking a deeper look at volume metrics, as I mentioned, we grew adjusted admissions by 1.5% due to strong performance on the outside -- outpatient side of the business. This marks our seventh consecutive quarter of growth in adjusted admissions. And while that's an impressive consecutive string, we generated strong volume growth for a substantially longer period of time. Looking back over the last 5.5 years, we achieved positive growth in adjusted admissions in 17 out of the last 22 quarters. Over the same 5.5-year period, Tenet's same-hospital admissions growth exceeded the peer group average by 90 basis points. Our Case Mix Index in Q2 was flat compared to the first quarter and down by 0.7% year-over-year due to volume growth in lower acuity services. Turning to service lines. The significant strength we reported last quarter in major trauma continued into the second quarter. Neuro, thoracic, oncology and vascular surgeries were also strong. Each of these service lines is part of our targeted growth initiative. Turning to revenues. Even excluding the favorable impact of the $28 million out-of-period California Provider Fee, we exceeded our expectations on pricing. Net inpatient revenue per admission increased by 4.1%. Revenue per adjusted admission increased by 3.3%, and net revenue per outpatient visit increased by 1.9%. We also continue to have excellent visibility into our future commercial pricing. We've completed contract negotiations for approximately 95% of 2012, and 60% of 2013 expected commercial revenues. We continue to be able to negotiate new contracts with anticipated yields within our targeted 5% to 7% range. While some new contracts are higher and some are lower depending on where each health plan's pricing levels start, the average increase remains consistent with our expectation. At the time of our first quarter release, we referred to the possibility of terminating a contract with a national commercial managed care payer. I'm happy to report that we entered into a new contract and will continue to serve that customer. Before I turn to cost, let me just mention that the Inpatient Prospective Payment System final rule came out last week, and it was 100 basis points better than we expected. To help put this in perspective, you should know that this is the largest increase in Medicare inpatient rates we've received in the last 4 years. Selected operating expense was well controlled, increasing by only 3.5% per adjusted admission, which was better than our expectation. Salaries, wages and benefits was the line item showing the most meaningful increase in the quarter. SWB per adjusted admission, which grew by 5.7%, included an 180 basis point increase attributable to greater physician salary cost, as we expanded physician employment in targeted markets. The continued decline in interest rates caused us to incur $8 million in unexpected incremental malpractice and workers' compensation expense. Our Medicare Performance Initiative, or MPI, continues to drive incremental cost savings. Year-to-date, MPI cost savings are exceeding our expectations, and we remain comfortable with our full year outlook of $80 million. One of the areas where MPI is particularly effective is in driving savings in the supply chain. Supplies expense declined by 2.3% per adjusted admission and was led by initiatives in spine, orthopedics and pharmacy. We also continue to incur expenses related to our healthcare IT program. I'm confident these investments will improve our productivity and value proposition over the next few years. There were no offsetting incentive payments in this quarter to our HIT expense, but remember, that just as HIT is a headwind to earnings this year, it becomes a tailwind in 2013 and in subsequent years through 2016. The delta just between this year and next year is a positive $50 million. Slide 4, on the slides that we posted to our website today, is an updated version of something you've seen before and contains our current projections for HIT incentives and expenses. Bad debt expense as a percent of revenue before provision for doubtful accounts increased 40 basis points over last year's second quarter, but remained well within our outlook range of 7% to 8%. One of the most exciting developments in the quarter was the announcement of Conifer's ground-breaking partnership with Catholic Health Initiatives. This partnership solidifies Conifer's position as the leader in the healthcare revenue cycle and highlights Conifer's growth potential. It proves that we're capable of serving clients across the size spectrum, from single hospitals to large national system. Once Conifer has fully implemented the CHI hospitals, it will provide revenue cycle services to approximately 150 hospitals and service $18 billion of net revenue annually. To help you assess the value created by this business, we are initiating segment disclosure of Conifer's financial performance. Conifer's adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $25 million, $16 million of which was from the Tenet business at market rate and the remaining $9 million from non-Tenet clients. I would like to close with some comments about our outlook for the remainder of 2012. Based on solid performance in the first half, we are reconfirming our range of $1,250,000,000 to $1,375,000,000. This implies an increase in EBITDA of about $100 million in the second half compared to the first half to reach the midpoint of our range. We're comfortable with the current Street consensus for Q3 of roughly $270 million, as our internal range is approximately $250 million to $290 million. So I'd like now to share our best thinking on our expected performance for the balance of the year. Let me draw your attention to Slide 3, which details the major line items we expect will drive our earnings growth in the second half. I'll focus on 5 categories. First, a couple of these items, like Provider Fees and Health IT incentives, are easy to estimate. We have good visibility into these items, and we're confident in our estimates. Second, other initiatives, like MPI and outpatient, represent a continuation of well-established operating trends. Based on our historical performance, we have a high degree of confidence in our ability to deliver on our expectations. Third, the Medicare update and reductions in FICA and other capped payroll taxes are fairly mechanical and easy to estimate. Fourth, we expect $50 million from incremental managed care revenue already under contract. The pricing component of this is driven by specific contracts that are signed and are already effective in the third quarter. So while incremental commercial revenues may vary due to acuity or other factors, the variance is unlikely to be material. And fifth, the $20 million we've labeled volume, acuity and payer mix is the category least under our control and hardest to estimate. But let me assure you that Britt Reynolds and his operations team have precise operating plans, by hospital, with detail on how we will achieve these objectives. In the aggregate, as shown on Slide 3, we expect a total of $715 million compared to the first half, $598 million, for a second half increase of $117 million, which is sufficient to achieve the midpoint of our 2012 outlook. To summarize the quarter, our results were led by strong top line growth in outpatient visits, surgeries and ED volumes and volumes in our targeted service lines. Our primary drivers of long-term value, including our initiatives in outpatient acquisitions and development, Conifer and the Medicare Performance Initiative, are on track to achieve their most significant performance milestones. And, of course, please keep in mind that our substantial NOL, which is worth more than $1 a share shields much of our future profitability from taxation. I am very pleased with the strength of our core business. Commercial pricing trends continue to be favorable. Costs remain well controlled. We continue to make significant investments in health IT and physician relationships, and while a significant portion of these investments hit current period earnings, we're confident that they will make important contributions to future growth in our bottom line. We continue to feel very confident of our performance and quality. I am proud of the 92 specialty center designations that we received last month from United Healthcare. These designations provide further evidence of the enhancements we continue to make in clinical quality. We're also pleased to have announced recent multi-year agreements with CIGNA and Humana. Last week, we announced a major $110 million expansion at St. Christopher's Hospital for Children in Philadelphia. The project includes the construction of a new Critical Care Tower, as well as the development of the Center for the Urban Child, the community-focused initiative designed to help area children overcome a variety of health disparities. The internal rate of return on this project exceeds anything we've seen in recent hospital acquisition opportunities, and it carries less risk. This is a great investment, and we have more opportunities like it. Although I'm the only speaker with prepared remarks on today's call, I'm joined by Britt Reynolds, our President of Hospital Operations; Dan Cancelmi, our Chief Accounting Officer; Steve Mooney, our CEO of Conifer; and other colleagues who are ready to answer your question. So operator, let's begin the Q&A.