John Mulligan
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thanks, Brian. This quarter provided further evidence of the payback we're realizing on the investments we've made over the last several years to transform our assets, our capabilities and our team. This work has created an operational model that can generate growth on both the top line and the bottom line as you saw in our second quarter results.
One place where it's easy to see the impact of our new model is in digital fulfillment where the mix is moving dramatically towards our same-day services, in-store pickup, Drive-Up and Shipt. In the second quarter, these 3 services accounted for more than 1/3 of our digital sales, up from about 20% last year. In other words, our same-day options are growing much faster than our digital sales. Specifically, combined sales for in-store pickup, Drive-Up and Shipt have more than doubled over the last year, accounting for nearly 3/4 of Target's 34% digital comp in the second quarter. That means that nearly 1.5 percentage points of the company's overall comp growth was driven by our same-day services.
These are remarkable statistics, and they demonstrate how rapidly our guests are learning about and embracing these new convenient options. For many guests, they are becoming the go-to choice for their digital shopping because they offer unique advantages. They're immediate. They allow guests to shop and receive their order on the same day. They're convenient. Guests can choose where they receive their order, either at the front of the store, in the parking lot or at home. They're fast. Our standard is for Drive-Up guests to receive their order in less than 2 minutes, and our average is comfortably better than the standard. And finally, these services provide certainty. Guests don't have to wonder when a package will arrive at their house and what will happen to the package if they're not at home. And of course, it eliminates the need to deal with opening and recycling a stack of cardboard boxes every week. With these advantages, it's no wonder that our same-day offerings receive some of the highest Net Promoter Scores of anything we offer, which means that guests want to use these services again and again after they tried them.
So if you simply apply a guest-first mentality, you quickly see the value of our investments to develop and roll out our same-day options across the country. But what's even better is that these services also make sense for our business because they leverage existing store assets and our store teams in new ways. As a result, our same-day options are also the most profitable within our digital offering.
Over the last few years, we've made a concerted effort to increase the efficiency of all of our store fulfillment options, including both our same-day and ship-from-store capabilities. As a result, since the beginning of 2018, order picking efficiency for pickup and Drive-Up has increased more than 30%. And similarly, end-to-end labor efficiency for our ship-from-store capability has also improved by more than 30% over that same period. These are massive improvements, which we realized through the natural scale efficiencies we see on higher volume, which are compounded by incorporating improved processes and technology. These tactics include creating larger batches for picking orders based on the goal to balance efficiency, speed to guest and the guest experience; optimizing the path for order picking to minimize steps through the backroom and sales floor. During seasonal peaks, batches are further segmented into subsections of the store, like Back-to-School orders this time of the year. Applying new algorithms to prioritize the sequence of order picking based on a range of criteria rather than simply applying first-in, first-out system; implementing new technology to eliminate ambiguity for our store team members about which work to perform first, when work is due and the optimal box size for packing orders; and of course, enhancing data and reporting for store teams to track the unit efficiency of both pick and pack. This reporting updates constantly throughout the day and provides leaders the ability to understand the drivers of their team's performance in real time.
These efforts have been focused on store fulfillment, but we been focused on every step of the guest shopping journey, including returns. We've always offered free in-store returns of digital orders, but guests sometimes prefer to ship their returns back to us. To make that process seamless, we've worked with our shipping partners to expedite the process of a return for a digital order. Under the new process, after a guest prints their return label at home and either drops it off or schedules pick up at their home, they receive credit for the return as soon as our third-party shipping partners scans the return label. This means that refunds are received in a guest's credit or debit card account days earlier than before, and our guests have noticed. And our guest survey scores have seen a meaningful improvement in the level of satisfaction for refund timeliness compared with last year.
So clearly, we've done a lot to support our digital growth, but we shouldn't forget about store sales, which continue to account for more than 90% of our total volume. As we've been saying for years, we believe that in-store shopping will continue to be important and account for the vast majority of retail sales for many years to come. However, in a world where consumers have more choices than ever, inferior brick-and-mortar experiences will go away. That's why we're investing heavily both in our store assets and in the experience our team provides.
Regarding the store assets themselves, we're in the middle of a 3-year period in which we plan to remodel about 300 stores each year, a more rapid pace than we've ever accomplished. As Brian mentioned, these remodels transform the entire store experience and optimize them for digital fulfillment. And as we've covered in the past quarters, we continue to see first year traffic and sales lifts in line with our original expectations and second year lifts that we didn't originally anticipate.
As successful as our remodel program has been, we continue to look for ways to refine our process. We continually analyze the results of completed remodels and apply those learnings into our project plans, so next year's remodels won't look the same as the ones we completed last year.
We're also finding ways to mitigate the challenges that our guests face when construction is in process, which is leading to smaller average sales disruption than we experienced last year. And while guests are enjoying the updated look and feel of their new store, they're also experiencing a change in the way our team serves them. That's because over the last few years we've been rolling out a completely new operating model for our store team. This new model is simpler and focused on our guests rather than accomplishing tasks. We've also created more specialized roles in which team members bring their expertise to categories like food, beauty, electronics and apparel.
The second quarter was the first time we have the new model fully implemented across the country, and we continue to be happy with the results. For example, we're seeing improved guest survey scores on questions about their interactions with our team, both on the sales floor and at checkout.
Beyond the guest experience, we're also seeing the benefit of the operating model in our financial performance. Like everyone else, we are currently experiencing meaningful wage inflation in a very tight labor market. However, because of our ongoing investments in our team and this new operating model, we're seeing strong efficiency improvements in our stores, which is helping them mitigate the impact of higher wages.
Before I turn the call over to Mark, I want to talk about our longer-term vision for the supply chain. Specifically, I want to address the questions we continue to hear about the long-term prospects for our strategy of using our stores as fulfillment hubs. One form of the question is to ask if the strategy is only feasible when Target's digital sales are still small. My first reaction is to wonder if it's appropriate to consider digital sales of well over $5 billion to be small, but I'll stick to what's most important and talk about how we expect to deliver much higher volumes of store-fulfilled digital sales over time. And based on the questions we've been getting from many of you, I want to cover 3 distinct questions about our capacity to accommodate growth.
The first question pertains to the ability of our stores to fulfill higher levels of digital sales within their existing square footage. On that question, our experience shows that our stores have a very long runway of capacity. Think of it this way, last year, stores-fulfilled sales accounted for an average productivity of just over $300 per square foot. And when you do the math, every additional billion dollars of store-fulfilled sales would raise that productivity by about $4 a foot. In other words, if we doubled last year's $5 billion in digital sales and fulfilled all of that extra volume in our stores, we'd see our average store sales productivity rise by just over $20 a foot. So the question is can our stores accommodate that volume in their existing space? The answer is clearly yes, and the easiest way to see that is by looking at the range of productivity of our stores across the chain. Specifically, our top quartile stores, a group consisting of more than 450 locations, delivered average per foot productivity of more than $430 last year. That's more than $100 higher than the average for the chain. So based on our success in operating that large set of stores, we believe we have a lot of room to grow our overall sales productivity through digital fulfillment.
But there's a second capacity question pertaining to the mix of space in our existing stores. Specifically, we often get asked whether we'll need to expand our store backrooms as we continue to see rapid growth in store-fulfilled digital sales. On that question, our internal modeling shows that we are not going to run up against any capacity constraints in the near term because our stores already have ample backroom space. Specifically, if we continue to simply apply our existing technology and processes and maintained a rapid rate of growth in store-fulfilled sales, we wouldn't need additional store backroom capacity until well into the next decade. And as an aside, that constraint would only occur doing the 2-week long seasonal spike in the fourth quarter. However, we'll only run up against that constraint if our technology and processes stay the same as they are today, and that isn't our plan. Just as our stores have consistently delivered ever-higher productivity in their ability to fulfill conventional sales, we are investing in technology and processes that will allow our stores to continue to grow their backroom productivity as well.
Beyond the capacity of our stores and backrooms, the third capacity question we hear is whether, over time, we're going to need to invest in additional upstream distribution capacity to accommodate our growth. And for this question, our answer is clearly yes. But that shouldn't surprise anybody because we've been adding capacity throughout more than 50 years of growth in our stores. In other words, when you grow any type of sales, either a conventional store sale or a digital sale, eventually, you will need to add network capacity to serve the additional volume. But that doesn't mean we're sitting on a surprise addition to the CapEx plans we outlined that this year's Financial Community Meeting. The capital plan we outlined that day already accounted for expected future investments and upstream capacity based on our plans to grow both store sales and digital sales in the years ahead. So in other words, adding network capacity isn't something beyond our plan. It's part of the plan we've already articulated.
Now before I close, I want to thank the team for their work to turn theory into reality over the last few years. When we started, many people didn't think we'd be able to grow store traffic and sales ever again. When we started, many people questioned whether stores should play a central role in digital fulfillment. And when we announced our goal to move to a $15 minimum wage across the country by the end of 2020, many people didn't think we could accommodate those kinds of wage increases and generate profitable growth. But because of this team's dedication, vision and energy, we've been able to transform our business and deliver outstanding financial results. Through their efforts, our team had delivered the performance that has converted doubters into believers.
Now I'll turn the call over to Mark, who will talk about our merchandising performance in the second quarter and our plans for the third quarter and beyond. Mark?