Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Brandy and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Teradyne Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Review Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Mr. Blanchard you may begin your conference. Andrew Blanchard - Vice President-Corporate Relations & IR Contact: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela and our Chief Financial Officer, Greg Beecher. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2015 as well as our outlook for the first quarter of this year. The press release containing our fourth quarter results was issued last evening and we're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following today's discussion. Those slides can be downloaded now or you can follow along live. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends. The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in the earnings release, as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call. During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning those non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP financial measure were available on the Investor page of the website. Also between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne will be participating in investor conferences hosted by Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Susquehanna and Bank of America. Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and market conditions as we enter the first quarter. Greg will then offer more details on our quarterly financial results along with our guidance for the first quarter. We'll then answer your questions and this call is scheduled for one hour. Mark? Mark E. Jagiela - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Andy and good morning, everyone. Today I'll provide a summary of our 2015 results, followed by an outlook for 2016 including our capital allocation plans. But first, let me say that our strong bookings performance of over $500 million in the fourth quarter gives us strong momentum heading into 2016. More on that in a minute. 2015 was a very good year for Teradyne. We delivered our second consecutive year of revenue over $1.6 billion and we increased our operating profit from 19% to 21%. Full year orders of over $1.8 billion were the highest in more than 10 years and all this was accomplished in a soft market year for our core SOC Test business. As we've discussed in past calls, the SOC Test market has developed an on-year, off-year pattern with the odd years being softer than the even years, due mainly to the relative difference in complexity advances in smartphones in those years. In 2015, that pattern continued with the SOC market likely to come in at about $2.1 billion, down from the $2.4 billion in 2014. However, this is up 10% from the comparable odd year of 2013, signaling a positive turn after several years of a declining market. We continued our game plan of disciplined share gains in Semi Test, ending the year up an estimated 1 point overall to a new record of 47%. This comes from an estimated 1 point share gain in SOC Test to about 51% and an estimated 1 to 2 point share gain in Memory Test to 29%. Our focus on the strongest segments of the market is a key part of our winning recipe. In SOC, the Mobility segment continues to dominate capacity buying and our UltraFLEX and J750 products continue to increase share. Analog tester sales were also strong with Eagle Test sales up 30% for the year. Microcontroller Test buying was lower for the year, but growth in Image Sensor Test demand helped fill the gap. In Memory, sales grew 3% in a flat market as our Magnum V tester is winning by capitalizing on the growing trend toward higher flash interface speeds. In 2015, our Wireless and System Test businesses also performed well. Wireless Test improved profitability and increased market share while holding sales flat in a challenging market estimated to be down 15% from 2014 to about $425 million. Lower growth in worldwide smartphone shipments pushed the market size lower offsetting the longer test times required for more complex wireless interfaces like LTE and 802.11ac with MIMO. System Test sales grew about 30% due to improvements in Storage Test. As HDD capacity buying returned and new SSD test applications grew as well. Finally, on the capital allocation front, our balanced approach continued as we repurchased 300 million shares, paid $51 million in dividends, and added a major new axis of growth with the purchase of Universal Robots in June. UR set fourth quarter and full year records for both quarters and sales. We continued to lead the industry in the emerging market for collaborative robots and the introduction of our smallest, lowest price UR3 to the product family in 2015 helped broaden our range of applications. Now let me turn to 2016. As I mentioned, our bookings in the fourth quarter give us strong momentum coming into the New Year. While the normal seasonal pattern would suggest an increase in fourth quarter orders of 10% to 20%, we saw Semi Test orders jump over 90% from Q3 and over 80% from the fourth quarter of 2014. While much of this surge is a pull-in of orders to deal with the increasing device and packaging complexity in SOC, it is an early signal of confidence for 2016. On the other hand, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, particularly China, make estimating the full year SOC market challenging. Our early initial estimate for the SOC market for this year is between $2.1 billion and $2.5 billion, with a familiar pattern of the first half stronger than the second. We expect the Memory Test market to be similar to past years at around $500 million. As always, we will focus on disciplined share gains in Semi Test by focusing on the strongest segments of the market. Smartphones grew by an estimated 10% or 135 million units in 2015, and while unit volumes were expected to grow roughly 5% in 2016, the performance of smartphones continues to expand. This growing performance is made possible by more complex semiconductor devices, which for Teradyne Semiconductor Test and LitePoint businesses means more test time per chip to ensure the high quality that consumers expect from their smart devices. While smartphones were the major drivers of our fourth quarter surge in test demand, we see additional device and package complexity driven tailwinds on the horizon. One example is the emerging 60 gigahertz band applications in Wi-Fi and automotive radar. This band will require additional silicon content for both smartphones and cars. This brings with it the need for an entirely new class of tester instruments that will expand our markets at both Semi Test and LitePoint. The expansion of cameras and vision systems will continue to grow above market averages and our leading position in this segment will similarly allow us to grow share. And while advanced packaging will reduce electronic system size and cost, it will also raise complexity and require more testing than traditional cingulated parts. At Universal Robots we are coming off a high growth year with annual sales of $61 million. We expect both the market for collaborative robots and UR sales to expand again by about 50% in 2016. UR's collaborative robots continue to gain traction at customers, as customers increasingly recognize how their low entry cost and ease of deployment completely changes the economic equation for automating manufacturing operations. Driven by compelling economics with ROIs often less than 12 months and the flexibility to perform repetitive or difficult tasks side-by-side with production workers, we expect the collaborative robot market to grow at a high 50% plus per year rate for the foreseeable future. In 2016, we will increase our OpEx in UR to both enable and capitalize on this growth. To summarize our strategy for 2016, we will continue on the path that has delivered strong results for our customers, stockholders and employees. Number one, make investments in engineering and distribution to ensure our products continue to grow market share by leading the industry in performance, economics and ease of use. Number two; maintain an efficient operating model that generates the returns to support those investments to power future growth. And number three; maintain a capital allocation strategy that balances share repurchases, dividends and attractive M&A. Looking specifically at capital allocation, after repurchasing 300 million shares last year, we have 200 million remaining on our existing authorization and expect to repurchase between 100 million to 200 million more this calendar year while paying about $50 million in dividends. Additionally, we continue to look at opportunities for profitable growth through M&A. Greg will provide details on our cash position in the U.S. and offshore, along with details on our 2015 repurchase program. In summary, Teradyne exited 2015 a stronger company financially, competitively and we added a powerful growth dimension with Universal Robots. Looking further into 2016, I am very excited about the market position of all the segments of Teradyne and our prospects for the year. While we can't predict macroeconomic conditions I'm confident we have the people, the products and the business processes that will allow Teradyne to thrive this year and beyond. For additional details on Q4 and 2015 and our outlook for the first quarter, I'll turn it over to Greg. Gregory R. Beecher - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & VP: Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with the key highlights of 2015, then I'll offer some comments on 2016 including our capital allocation plans, and then I'll cover the fourth quarter results and first quarter outlook. On the financial highlights front, we had $1.64 billion of sales with a 21% operating profit rate and $323 million in free cash flow. 2015 was our first back-to-back year at over $1.6 billion in sales in over a decade. Overcoming the historical odd year dips to about $1.4 billion in sales that we saw in 2011 and 2013. The purchase of lease testers along with the SOC Test buy rate showing greater stability, strength in Storage Test and the addition of Universal Robots have all contributed to break the oscillating revenue pattern. In 2015, we deployed capital very strategically, both to establish a new growth platform in industrial automation, fund it with offshore cash and to buyback 6% on a net basis of our shares with domestic cash. Our efficient operating model and proven ability to add new businesses allow us to both return significant capital and fund new high growth platforms concurrently. The first piece of that capital deployment, the purchase of UR, is a major highlight of 2015. UR is the standout leader in the fast growing collaborative robot space with its easy to train and redeploy cobots. While it's early, UR is off to a very strong start inside of Teradyne with fourth quarter sales of $22 million bringing its annual calendar year sales to $61 million, up 56% from calendar 2014. The second component of our capital deployment plan was the return of $351 million to shareholders through our buyback and dividend programs. We bought back 15.6 million shares in 2015 at an average price of $19.21 and returned $51 million in dividends. So all-in-all a good year and as you can see from our fourth quarter orders at $522 million, we're capturing the beginning of another strong mobility complexity wave, positioning us for a very solid 2016. Now quickly to our 2016 capital allocation plans. We plan on using between $100 million and $200 million for buybacks in 2016, depending on our M&A pipeline and other factors. Given our efficient operating model and greater diversification and stability we've reset our corporate-wide minimum cash level from $500 million to $400 million. This balance of $400 million is about eight months worth of OpEx. I should point out that we also have a pipeline of a small number of attractive M&A opportunities which require that we preserve balance sheet flexibility. Of course, we'll constantly review the returns we can achieve from our M&A pipeline against an even greater capital return. The slide deck includes a schedule that shows our total cash and marketable securities balances along with our minimum cash needs. You can also see that we have $588 million of offshore cash, well above our $100 million minimum foreign balance. This is the result of our lower offshore tax rate which when combined with our U.S. rate results in an overall tax rate of about 21% for the full year 2015. As we look deeper into 2016, we see another jump-up in mobility performance and complexity, consistent with the even-year patterns we've talked about. Add to this the lessening of the impacts of Parallel Tests and SOC Tests and added complexity in Devices and Packaging, and we see another strong year ahead. Beyond Semi Test, we expect 50% plus growth for Universal Robots and healthy performance in both Wireless and System Test. Before I add more color on 2016, let me quickly fill out the picture with some information on our performance and some key trends. First, we've shown that we are good stewards in businesses where others struggle. Over the last five years, despite the ebb and flow of test demand, we've averaged 21% non-GAAP operating profit rate, and approximately $260 million in annual free cash flow. In Semi Test, in just over the last three years we've gained 11 points of SOC Test share and 13 points in Memory Test, reaching 51% share in SOC and 29% share in Memory Test, while maintaining healthy gross margins and disciplined OpEx control. We've done this by carefully targeting segments that have tailwinds such as mobility, automotive and flash memory and avoiding those that are in decline or offer razor-thin margins such as MPU and peripheral equipment like package handlers. We've designed products that win with clever architectural advantages in throughput, accuracy and fast programming tools. This has helped customers get their test economics, high yields and fast time to market with Teradyne, and in turn they have rewarded us with hard won market share and the top score in the VLSIresearch Customer Satisfaction award for the third year running. We'll continue with this scalable formula while continuing to look for opportunities for further optimization. Shifting quickly to SOC trends. Device and package complexity are both increasing as higher performance is designed into thinner packages for mobile products. As, you know, our business is driven forward by unit growth and complexity. On the other side of the ledger, our tester's own use of Moore's Law and parallel tests restrain growth. These competing forces are breaking positive for the first time in years and the SOC Test capital intensity appears to have stabilized. And significantly, we're seeing more test drivers beyond smartphones gaining traction; in autos, semi-content is forecasted to grow over 30% through 2020 and the fastest growing segment in auto is ATES (16:47), which is rich in device complexity and, therefore, test intensity. While still early, virtual reality is another driver of compute, display and communications IC test demand expected later this decade. We also expect packaging complexity to increase driving higher test times. In Memory Test, the major trend in NAND is for higher density and increasing bus interface speeds, which is where Magnum excels. It has broken into five of the top six flash memory manufacturers with its unique architecture for high throughput and performance headroom. Turning now to Wireless Test with LitePoint strong product differentiation, we delivered flat sales in a down market which pushed our market share in wireless production test to over 40%, our highest ever. We still have high concentration at one very good customer but we continue to make progress in broadening our customer base as well. The lower than forecast smartphone production ramps from Asian makers, where we won design-ins earlier, were a headwind to these efforts in 2015. Despite this and other market forces, the business runs above the industry model 15% profit rate and has a rich pipeline of new products which we expect to establish market footholds in 2016 and higher volumes thereafter. Longer term, we expect multiyear periods of modest demand growth driven by incremental performance improvements in wireless products, such as increased numbers of cellular (18:17) frequency bands extending up into the unlicensed 5 to 6 gigahertz band, moving from a single Wi-Fi data stream to eight streams with MIMO and advanced standards such as 802.11ad. Further out on the horizon is the large technology inflection of 5G. In System (sic) [Storage] (18:34) Test, the key highlights were successfully ramping our new 3.5-inch hard disc drive test into three different customers and scoring further SSD Test business which brought our total Storage Test sales to over $80 million, up from more than twofold from 2014. Overall Storage Test is a completely repositioned business with a versatile platform, extendable to variety of test applications. The end market fundamentals are strong with data center storage capacity growing at a forecasted 15% CAGR and SSDs at close to 40%. At Universal Robots, sales have grown over 50% annually for the last three years. We maintain a significant product lead with faster train and easy-to-deploy cobots that are highly reliable and repeatable and are very safe to place alongside a human without caging or fencing apparatus. UR cobots can do production tasks that are dirty, dangerous or dull. Some third parties tag the market – future market size to be over $3 billion by 2020 driven by greater adoption across diverse industries. In 2015, UR further developed its distribution network expanding the number of distributors to about 200 and growing its UR capped accessories platform, collectively turning our significant product lead into an ecosystem lead as well. UR also successfully launched and is shipping in high volume its third cobot model, the UR3 cobot, which targets lighter test or tabletop applications. Now moving to the segment level details. Semi Test orders were $408 million, the highest fourth quarter demand in over 15 years driven by Mobility. SOC Test orders were $391 million and Memory Test orders were $17 million. Semi Test service orders were $66 million of this total. Semi Test sales were $205 million in the fourth quarter, with SOC making up $180 million and Memory Test the balance. Semi Test service revenue totaled $57 million in the fourth quarter. Shifting to Wireless Test. Orders were $30 million and sales were $32 million in the fourth quarter. System Test orders were $66 million in the quarter and sales were $59 million. Universal Robots had orders of $18 million and sales of $22 million in the fourth quarter. Geographically, UR sales were 45% in Europe, 30% in North America and 25% in Asia. At the company-level our sales were $318 million, the non-GAAP operating profit rate was 10% and non-GAAP EPS was $0.13. We had no 10% customer in the fourth quarter and one for the full year. Non-GAAP gross margins were 55%. You'll see our non-GAAP operating expenses were down $11 million to $141 million compared to the third quarter due to lower variable compensation accruals and approximately $5 million in certain one-time credits. As planned our inventory increased $26 million in the fourth quarter as we added material to maintain attractive lead times. Sales for the first quarter expected to be between $410 million and $440 million, and the non-GAAP EPS range is $0.23 to $0.29 on 206 million diluted shares. Q1 guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles. Gross margins are expected at 53% and OpEx should be between 36% and 38%, which includes some NREs and added Universal Robots spending. We expect the first half of this year to have higher OpEx tied to new product programs but for the full year excluding UR, we expect OpEx to be flat unlike sales levels. The operating profit rate at the midpoint of our first quarter guidance is about 16%. Our 2016 tax rate is expected to be about 20%, down from prior guidance, due to a higher mix of offshore profits and the reinstatement of the R&D credit. 2016 we've earmarked $80 million to $100 million for CapEx, about flat at the midpoint with 2015 levels of $90 million. At the high end this includes a few tens of millions dollar for potential customer leases in 2016. We don't expect the same volume of leases we placed in 2014; we may see some activity in our Semi Test segment. So we start 2016 with our strongest start since 2004, driven by SOC Test strength. And with Device and Packaging complexity going up while Parallel Test slows, we see a healthy longer term picture for our largest business even before factoring in modest share gains. Adding Universal Robots 50% plus annual growth, ongoing healthy performance in System Test and Wireless Test, we see a bright future ahead. With that, I'll turn the call back to Andy. Andrew Blanchard - Vice President-Corporate Relations & IR Contact: Thanks, Greg. Brandy, we'd now like to take some of the questions. And as a reminder, please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up.