Earnings Labs

Teradyne, Inc. (TER)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 26, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Sharon, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Teradyne Q2 2012 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Andrew Blanchard, VP, Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Andrew J. Blanchard

Analyst

Thank you, Sharon. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our Chief Executive Officer, Mike Bradley; and our Chief Financial Officer, Greg Beecher. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for the second quarter of 2012, as well as our outlook for the third quarter. First, I'd like to address several administrative issues. The press release containing our second quarter results was sent out via Business Wire last evening. Copies are available at teradyne.com, where this call is also being simulcast. Note that during this call, we are providing slides on the website that may be helpful to you on following the discussion. To view them, simply access the Investor page of the site and click on the Live Webcast icon. In addition, replays of this call will be available via the same page about 24 hours after the call ends. The replays will be available along with the slides through August 11. The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in the earnings release, as well as our most recent SEC filings for a complete description. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call. During today's call, we will make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure were available on our website. To view them, go to the Investor page and click on the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation link. Also, you may want to note that between now and our next conference call, Teradyne will be participating in investor conferences hosted by Barclays, Pacific Trust, Morgan Stanley and Piper Jaffray in August and Citibank and Deutsche Bank in September. Now, let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, our CEO, Mike Bradley, will review the state of the company and the industry in the second quarter and provide our outlook for the third quarter. Then, our CFO, Greg Beecher, will provide more details on our quarterly performance, along with our detailed guidance for the third quarter. We'll then answer your questions. You should note that we intend to end this call after 1 hour. Mike?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call today. As you can see, we've posted some exceptional results in the second quarter and have registered a very solid first half. So I want to spend some of my time breaking out what's behind those numbers. But after I do that, I'd like to recap the growth trajectory we're on and the strategy behind it. Greg will go into some additional detail on LitePoint, on our model and cash strategy and on what we expect to see in the second half of this year. And of course, he'll also run down the details on the second quarter results. The bottom line of the halfway mark this year is continued strength in SOC test, driven by mobility applications plus an additional boost from the microcontroller and analog sectors. On top of that, a new product ramp in LitePoint has delivered record first half revenues that put LitePoint on course to exceed our original projections for revenues and profits for this year. The SOC story is an extension of what we saw last quarter, that is very strong demand in mobility applications, resulting in a record in UltraFLEX shipments and a near record in bookings. On top of that, we've had an uptick in the microcontroller sector, with our best J750 order rate in 2 years. That brings our J750 install base to over 4,000 systems. Our performance analog business at Eagle had a strong showing with over 100 systems ordered in the quarter, including a number of new socket wins for linear, automotive and power management applications. These milestones for the J750 and the ETS line are noteworthy as they are the workhorse products for high productivity, digital and analog testing, respectively. They complement the versatility of the UltraFLEX with focused,…

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to first provide some color on our very strong quarter and also comment on our model. Then I'll cover the more detailed second quarter highlights and third quarter guidance and close with some summary comments. In the second quarter, we had sales of $548 million and non-GAAP EPS of $0.77. LitePoint, our wireless test segment, was a stand-out performer with $112 million in revenue and $189 million in bookings in the second quarter. On the product front, LitePoint successfully introduced 2 new wireless calibration and test products in the IQ family, which were both aggressively ramped in the quarter and met customer acceptance tests ahead of schedule. These new products further extend our lead in providing wireless test solutions that enable brand and chipset companies to get their new products to market fast, while also meeting their aggressive cost targets for high-volume production testing. I'll come back to LitePoint a little later. But first I'd like to provide some overall comments on the year as we passed the halfway mark. Our first half non-GAAP EPS of $1.07 gives us our best first half start in the last 10 years. Looking around the corner, we'd expect, as Mike said, normal second half seasonality to come into play. This generally causes our revenue to peak in the second or third quarter and trough in the fourth quarter. For us, apart from adjusting our supply line, our model anticipates and flexes variable costs down in periods of lower sales, allowing us to deliver very solid earnings through the trough and across the cycle. Let me take a moment now to give you a sense of how we think about our normalized sales and earnings. I'm doing this now to remind you of the high-level structure,…

Andrew J. Blanchard

Analyst

Thanks, Greg. Sharon, we'd now like to take some questions. And as a reminder, please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jim Covello from Goldman Sachs.

James Covello - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

First, I'm just trying to understand some of the go-forward dynamics of the LitePoint business. It seems like you turned a lot of those orders into revenue in the current quarter. Do you think that's going to be the dynamic of that LitePoint business that's going to be more of a turns business with orders as opposed to some of the longer dated orders to revenue dynamics you've seen in some of the other new segments that you've rolled out?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

Jim, it's Mike. It will be a faster turn business for us. The granularity of the units are smaller. But that piece of the business is just a faster rep rate. We can't say exactly what the lead times will be. We'll have to watch for a few quarters and be able to give you some sense of that as we go forward, but it's clearly going to be inside our larger system structures.

James Covello - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Fair enough. And then if I could ask my follow-up on LitePoint as well. It's been -- it's such a terrific acquisition, great growth and terrific margins. How do you see the margins playing out in that business? Do you think it's going to continue to stay at above corporate average gross margins? Or would you expect some moderation as the business -- as the growth rates sort of stabilizes there a little bit?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Jim, this is Greg. We would expect for the foreseeable future the margin should stay above the company average. LitePoint is quite a bit ahead of some of the technology areas and that gives customers a much better advantage in getting the products to market fast with low cost production tests. So I do think it's a unique value proposition that can continue to return good margins.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Satya Kumar from Credit. Satya Kumar - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: You mentioned earlier on that you had some new products that you had introduced in wireless that -- Wireless Test and LitePoint that helped you. Could you provide a little bit more color on whether it was pertaining to perhaps the Wi-Fi side? Or are you starting to make some penetration on the LTE side as well?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

We're not going to get specific on those products, but I will say it's the Wi-Fi side. So those products are Wi-Fi and they were very successful right out -- right from engineering, and they were ramping at record time. Satya Kumar - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. And are these products tied to any particular sort of -- particularly strong product cycle that may be happening downstream, if you were there in smartphones and tablets? And what -- obviously at the time of your guidance Q2, you didn't expect this level of performance at LitePoint. At what point did you start getting this visibility and how quickly that, that business trend had been happening?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

Satya, we can connect to specific end products. But on your second question, if you remember on our call last quarter, the guidance we gave in revenue included the low end of the range for LitePoint. And because it's such a turns business, because we had new products ramping, and the question was whether those acceptances would be second quarter versus third quarter, it took us well through the middle part of the quarter and into the third month of the quarter to see how that was going to shape up. And quite frankly, acceptance has turned out to be very good for us and that emerged really in the last few weeks of the quarter. Satya Kumar - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: And one last question. You're obviously having a pretty steady revenue pattern over the last 2 or 3 years as you just had noted, and it seems like revenue has stepped up to higher level. It's a bit more diversified as well. And I think you mentioned a couple of times that you're looking at your capital strategy. I understand your position on being opportunistic on buybacks. What are your thoughts specifically, if at all, on initiating a dividend, however small it might be? How serious is that as you consider that at the board level?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

That, among other possibilities, are explored with our board on an ongoing basis. And I think what I've consistently said is don't expect any sharp turns from what we have been doing. And as -- if you look at what we've done historically, we've been more recently very opportunistic on buybacks. And the returns we've gotten from LitePoint -- and what we expect to get from LitePoint, as well as Eagle and Nextest, we think are quite significant. So we think that's a better use of hard-earned capital. We acknowledge we may not find another good fit. So it all depends, are there -- these other good fits out there. And when you're looking at somebody like LitePoint, it's very hard to use your own stock. The other party is a different industry, so that complicates the deal. So we need enough good dry powder so that if there are these good opportunities that we can move. I think last year, I think this time we had $1.2 billion of gross cash. So we grew cash to a reasonable level, which gave us a good war chest to do a sizable deal. So in summary, I think, expect what we've been doing in the past but we continue to look at it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna International.

Mehdi Hosseini - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

Two follow-on, one on the SemiTest. Mike, would it be fair to say that given the changes going on in customer, there are new applications for controller IC? And in that segment of the test, there are changes going on that is creating the opportunities -- opportunities for SemiTest?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

Mehdi, I think it's an ongoing -- every segment has got new applications. And that's why the design-in work we do to get new sockets on an ongoing basis gives -- is really the essential strategy of the business. But you may want to refine that question.

Mehdi Hosseini - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

Just let me -- actually, let me refine it. If you think about what's -- if you look at the end market, there is increased conversions and more functionalities added to the silicon. So one could argue that your SOC test business in the long term could actually see fewer opportunities, because there will be fewer chips. But on the controller side, there is increased application and there is increased focus on embedding controller into the complete solution or more of a "system in a package" solution. So as a background, I see increased wafer-level test for controller to be included into the SIP. And that could drive new demand for controller. So am I right in my thought process? Or are you seeing something different?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

No, I think you're right. And if you remember last quarter when we talked -- maybe the last couple of quarters that, that's why our focus has been on more highly integrated devices and in this mobility sector because we think that as the dollar shifts continually in that direction, I gave some numbers last quarter how that segment of the market would take, we think, at least 4% more of the pie over the next couple of years. It turns out even more than that this year. So I agree with you on that front. And I think the other thing is that if you look back at our history, really over a 20-year period, we've been focusing a major part of our R&D at a strategy that would exploit that higher integration and a higher buy rates that exist and a more buy and the capital that exists in that sector.

Mehdi Hosseini - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

Got it. And then on LitePoint, I appreciate an update on the TAM. But the problem I have is the second quarter was so strong. So to get to the $450 million revenue opportunity for '12 and '13, then I need to model a significant decline from first half of '12 into second half of '12. Are you just being conservative? Or is that very difficult to assess the size of the market?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Mehdi, LitePoint should operate like our other businesses in terms of strong Q2, Q3, trough in Q4, Q1, low maybe picking up a bit. So it's on the same pattern, that the bulk of the buy is in Q2 and Q3. What we did say is $100 million more than what we described to you guys a quarter ago over a 2-year period. So I think that's just remarkable growth compared to -- we said 20% plus. So the math is, it's much higher than a 20% plus growth rate for the first 2 years. Could be somewhat higher? Of course, Could be somewhat lower? Of course.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Chin from UBS.

Mahavir Sanghavi - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

This is Mahavir Sanghavi for Stephen Chin. A quick question on LitePoint about share gains. I mean, you talked about 3 reasons that led to LitePoint's strong results. I was wondering if share gains is another opportunity down the road or if you can share with us what the share was in the first half. Previously you've talked about mid-teen share in the LitePoint business. So I'm wondering if you could share some light -- shed some light on that. And also the second question about HDD. It looks like your HDD customers had a -- one of your customers reported last night, they had really great results. So I was wondering if you could talk about -- if you can perhaps start to see some HDD pickup likely in your first half '13 after some digestion in the second half '12.

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

I'll take the first LitePoint one, and then Mike will take the second. On the LitePoint, LitePoint, the bulk of the growth is a very healthy market for the reasons I mentioned in my prepared remarks. Apart from that there have been share gains. We have doubled the number of customers that are over $0.5 million from a year ago. So we do have many more customers in the fold. We've gained a little bit of share in a new market as a foothold, and hope to expand from there. If you step back and say where is LitePoint in the total market? Our share would be up this year. It's up this year in part because the market were in connectivity, I believe, is healthier this year based upon some of the trends I mentioned and is buying more compared to what the cellular test market would otherwise buy. In addition to that, there's been some number of share gains where we've broken in and gotten a little bit more connectivity business, and we've got a little bit of cellular business.

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

Stephen, on the HDD side, the trajectory we're on and the market is on has been, as we said, it's been a strong capacity add period here in the first half. And we do expect that to slow down. There's more capacity in the market -- test capacity right now that there is demand. So we see the next quarter or perhaps 2 to be slower. As that gets absorbed, you could see a pickup in the time frames that you talked about. But the signal we wanted to give to you was that you can't -- we can't just multiply the first part of this year and say, "That's what's the size of the market's going to be." We do expect it to be slower, and absorption period in the second half of this year. As you know, we're focused on 2.5 inch. That's where our -- all of our businesses, we fanned out to a number of customers now, broader set of application, so we've got a very good position on the front. And that market, as you know, that's the biggest piece of the HDD CapEx.

Mahavir Sanghavi - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Greg, one quick follow-up. Just you had one customer greater than 10%. Was that a LitePoint customer?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

We're not going to speak to that level of detail. We simply have -- we do have at the company level the customer -- one customer at the company level that's more than 10%. We had one in Q1, one in Q2. And then over the 6-month period, we have one customer at 10% spot on.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jagadish Iyer from Piper Jaffray.

Jagadish K. Iyer - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst

Two questions, and I just have a quick housekeeping question. But first on the question, if you look at, Mike, the second half SemiTest revenues in comparison with first half and compared to similar periods in 2011, where you compare first half '11 versus second half '11, clearly there was a 30% decline in SemiTest revenues in '11. How different is it this time, given the backdrop of commentary from companies like TI recently that things are softening? So can you please elaborate which associated segments will be stronger in the second half and which one will be weaker in the second half? And then I have a follow-up.

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Yes. Jagadish, so let me come at that 2 ways. One is you're right, we're about -- the signal we're giving the second half would be softer. The numbers behind that, if you recall, the industry in SOC was running at an annualized $2 billion rate as we exited 2011. First half of this year, it's just a nudge under $3 billion. So the ramp-up has been dramatic. You know the $3 billion would be about $400 million higher than the market size for the last couple of years, and the buy rate would be higher than the regular run rate. So we do expect a correction in the second half. The slide that we've shown in our package, it's available to you. so we think we end up between $2.5 billion and $2.8 billion, so take the midpoint of that, $2.6 billion -- - between $2.6 billion, $2.7 billion. And that means that you have a correction, with a likely correction in the second half of this year. That's what we would expect. The segment information, let me tell you, I think this is a little bit of a repeat of what we've said in the past because the pattern is very similar, and that is mobility, it has been the driver. That's our RF mobile processors base band. We've had, and I think the market likely has had 3 quarters of growth, sequential growth. Power management has been very strong the last 3 quarters, grown so much that actually it was down a little bit for us this quarter. And in places like microcontroller and linear were up after finally a few quarters of down. Those were both up. So our expectation is that everything recedes as we go into the second half of the year, but the order of buying, in other words, the Pareto will still probably stack up with the mobility sector for us, power management, microcontroller, linear, in that order.

Jagadish K. Iyer - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And just a quick follow-up. How should we think about LitePoint in the context of broader market growth for the total LitePoint's market? And how does LitePoint grow in '12 versus '13? How should we think about that in terms of the broader market? Is it outgrowing? I mean, any color on that.

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

We would expect LitePoint to outgrow the wireless market for the next several years.

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

I think we'll -- as we log a few more quarters and a couple more years, we'll hopefully have a better picture. This market doesn't get tabulated the way the SemiTest markets have been for the last 5 or even 10 years. Our estimates were that the test market was going to grow at about 10%. We were shooting for a 20% growth. We're clearly well above that. So the kind of accuracy of measurements, we can't give you the same in the LitePoint and test market. But I think it's pretty clear with the level of growth that we've got, if we can sustain that on an annual basis, then we're clearly moving faster than the market is.

Jagadish K. Iyer - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst

One -- just a quick housekeeping. Greg, I just wanted to find out your accounts receivables kind of increased in the second quarter. Any color on that?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

That's simply shipments were skewed towards the end of the quarter and therefore, the payment wasn't due from the customer.

Operator

Operator

You're next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Bank of America.

Krish Sankar - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

Two quick ones. Greg and Mike, when I look at your LitePoint booking, which has been phenomenal in Q2, can you tell me how many customers are in this?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Of course. Yes, I don't have that handy, but there's too many to -- 30 or 40, but I don't -- we have to go back and count.

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

It's a -- if you put the Paretos next to SemiTest, it's actually a lighter Pareto than SemiTest. But because the units value of the systems is smaller. At that -- at the end of the Pareto, the numbers are very, very small. But it's a very, very broad and distributed -- geographically distributed market. Obviously, the big guys are the big guys, and take up a large chunk of the business. But it's a very wide terrain.

Krish Sankar - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

And then other question on the competition, both on your core SOC and the wireless side. On the core SOC, I mean there seemed to have been some movement in Q1, especially in the mobility side, with one of your Japanese comps taking some market share because of you guys being capacity constrained. I want to find what are the situations in Q2? Has it resolved itself because you expanded your manufacturing? And along the same lines for wireless, do you have any thoughts on Agilent picking up the test assets of AT4 systems, not the certification, but it seems like they picked up some of the test business. How do you think of that looking ahead on the LTE side?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

Let's see. First question. The bottlenecks we had in the first quarter are behind us. Those were caused by us having really a year's worth of demand in our high-end system UltraFLEX coming in one quarter. Unusual for us not to get every piece of business that comes in the door. But that is behind us. At this point, we've ramped that product very aggressive and we're positioned to be able to -- not to be capacity constrained at this point. Second question, on wireless, say that again.

Krish Sankar - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

It was on the Agilent acquisition of the test assets of AT4 systems, which competes on the LTE side with you guys.

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Yes. This is Greg, we haven't seen that particular transaction. If I can step back, what we're doing in this market is we're working with the lead accounts where we've helped them on connectivity and we have deep relationships and credibility. And we're demonstrating our product, which can do 4 ducts at the same time. The competitors can't do that. They're trying to. So it's simply a design-in cycle that takes a period of time. And if you are successful, you tend to get in as a second source for some piece of business. So we're on that path, we feel good. How we're doing? It just -- it takes time. It can be a year process, and we're tracking it very carefully where we are.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Ho from Stifel, Nicolaus. Patrick J. Ho - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Mike, in terms of the SOC test seasonal aspects, do you believe that there's been any change this year relative to past years, given some of the current market sentiment and maybe some of the caution that's emerging? Could this year come a little bit earlier in terms of that seasonal pause?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

Yes. But measured, Patrick, in months. The first quarter demand, certainly, from a unit standpoint would be one of the top first quarters that we've seen in the past. And first quarter of 2010, with the 2009 correction was big, obviously. But I'm not sure. Are you getting at whether... Patrick J. Ho - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: I guess, what I'm trying to get at is sometimes you do see September still being a relatively healthy SOC test quarter. I'm just wondering if it's because the market sentiment has obviously changed, whether you've seen that kind of pulled into the June quarter, and that's why you're seeing the pause now versus, say, in Q4.

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

Well, I think definitely there's a sentiment. The big question mark on world economies and consumer demand and transition of mobility products and all of that stuff is putting a pause. And so I'd mildly agree with you that things are uncertain. The reason we've said that we -- that Q3 is down is 3 reasons. One is the vibrations from the customers are suggesting that they've put a lot in place and they will probably put less in place in the third quarter, number one. Number two, history tells us, on the exhibit, we've included in this -- on the website, history tells us that third and fourth quarter are usually down. So I wouldn't say this would be unusual, they're usually down. And number three, with the run rate in SOC at $3 billion, we think it has to back off a little bit despite the dollar growth in the SemiTest device market, the SOC -- I'm sorry the SOC device market, that comes down, too. So if you put all those 3 together and the betting man says that the third quarter and certainly the fourth quarter are likely down. Patrick J. Ho - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay, great. That's helpful. Going to the LitePoint for a second, you mentioned that you guys did really well going from the engineering side to the product ramp for some of the new products. Has that -- did you add capacity, I guess earlier this year or late last year for that ramp? Or is this is something that you've been able to just leverage with your existing capacity? And what's the outlook going forward given the strength in the June quarter?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

All right. We grow that capacity as we do in SemiTest with our manufacturing partner -- set of partners, but main partner. And we've been able to ramp the capacity on these products with that same infrastructure. So -- but obviously inside that factory, it was a very ambitious and aggressive ramp program, not just in unit volume but in the introduction of the new products that Greg talked about.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Vishal Shah from Deutsche Bank.

Vishal Shah - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Greg, I wanted to just understand the increase in LitePoint revenues, $100 million. Is that going to be all from Wi-Fi side? Or you also embedding in the increase some share gains in the cellular side as well?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

I'd rather speak to the not any one quarter. But if I could speak for the year, for the year...

Vishal Shah - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

I am talking about your $350 million to $450 million guidance for the 2 years.

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Okay. Let's just say 2012 at the moment, okay?

Vishal Shah - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Yes.

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

So 2012, we would have -- certainly have cellular test business. That would be a small piece of our business. We would have 802.11ac, you didn't ask about that but that's another new product, so it's a small amount of that business which will ramp much more in the future. But yes, there is cellular business in, there's some good chunks in there, but it's not significant in the grand scheme of things. And we expect it to grow in the subsequent years.

Vishal Shah - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, great. And as you sort of think about the higher revenue run rate, has your outlook on the operating margins for the segment changed? You had talked about slightly better margins, more than 15% target model. Should we now sort of think about few hundred basis points higher margins?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

No, I don't think the margins are going to go up. I think as -- the more successful we are with some large volume deals, there's -- our best guess is those stay similar where they are. We do spend a fair amount on the OpEx, too, in this business. To give an example, OpEx was running at about $12 million a quarter in 2011. In 2012, we're going to close at $23 million a quarter. So we're about doubling it. So we're investing a lot. So while the gross margins are great, there are a fair amount of costs that are below gross margins as well.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of C.J. Muse from Barclays.

Christopher J. Muse - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

I guess first question on LitePoint. If you look at the order run rate versus revenues over the last 3 quarters, it looks like your backlog is around $80 million. So curious is that calculation correct? And is that the kind of number we should think about in terms of revenues there in the September quarter?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

In that number, there is some extended warranty too, that is deferred revenue that gets recognized over a period of time. So 10% of it, you'd almost want to haircut, C.J., because that's service revenue over a period of time. But then the bulk of it would be product revenue. The numbers are a little higher than what you put forth, but you're close enough with your guess. And yes, so that's in part in our guidance. But keep in mind with 2-week lead times, it's also possible those orders could get canceled, pushed out. Therefore, it is a little trickier forecasting LitePoint than our existing businesses.

Christopher J. Muse - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, that's fair. I guess, if you think about that kind of number and if you assume nothing in December, you're still around the $225 million run rate. So curious on the $450 million guide for the 2 years combined, is that just conservatism? Or should be thinking about a higher number given how you talked about seeing faster than mobility growth year-on-year in '13?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Well, I think time will tell. Is it conservative or not? There's so many different things we have to look at and evaluate. Dual bands, for example, this year the Wi-Fi. That's driven much more buying. That's in the base now. So the next round of testers aren't going to quad bands. So there isn't that extra jump. So we sort of -- because of that, we're -- we see that might be a little bit of an anchor, but then we see balloons in terms of cellular as well as unit growth. So there's so many things in the stew that we look at that it could be up, could be flat. And we just thought at this point, this is what we feel quite confident with, and we don't want to put numbers forth that we're not quite confident with.

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

But C.J., I think -- to be fair, I think, I'd second your proposition there, and that is what we wanted to do was to indicate that this is a very strong picture. And yes, we -- maybe we are being conservative, but honestly it's not a bottoms-up forecast that gives us the $450 million number. It's more of a top-down thing that says, if we sustain this level, we could see some backing off in 2013, because we can't build it all up from the bottom. But even if we do, there's another -- there's an extra $100 million on the table. So legitimately, if we could keep on this trajectory, then obviously we've got more than $100 million plus in that picture. It's a top-down calculation.

Christopher J. Muse - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

But from a revenue per handset perspective, how do you think about kind of current Wi-Fi purchases versus AC and cellular, particularly as we move to LTE?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Revenue per handset in terms of...

Christopher J. Muse - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

I'm just trying to understand the rising test time for LTE, AC and -- so what that means in terms of incremental testers required vis-a-vis what your seeing on the Wi-Fi side?

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Great. I think the trend will be positive, there because obviously it's a new standard, and existing testers don't support that. So you need to buy a new tester. And often you find test times are longer. Anytime you can get more through, I'll call it a pipe, there's more to test, whether its more channels, more signals so test times are likely to go up, and you need new testers. So I do think that's a very favorable trend and that's going to play out over quite a few years, the LTE. That's not going at a rapid pace right now.

Christopher J. Muse - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Got you, that's helpful. And then one last question for me. On the SOC test side it looks like you've widened the band there by about 100 million to the downside and 100 million to the upside versus kind of the prior conversations. So curious on that front, what would drive that to the high end? And what would get us to the low end? What are your thoughts there?

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

I think the main thing that would push to the high-end is if this new product launch is in the growth, in the mobility sectors stay for another quarter, then you get to the high end. I think it only takes another quarter of that to happen. So that's why we got the range there. But there's nothing magical about having one more quarter and have one year that's a little high because we saw in 2010 an accumulation of held-off buying from 2009 period. So you could get to the top end, since we're halfway through the year and honestly, it takes only an extra quarter of push. Our expectation, though, both in short-term information from customers and in the macro calculations are that the absorption period starts here over the course of this next quarter. We could be wrong.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Andrew J. Blanchard

Analyst

Okay, operator. I think we have an empty queue. So we will conclude today's call. Thank you for your interest in Teradyne, and we look forward to talking with you down the road.

Michael A. Bradley

Analyst

Many thanks, guys.

Gregory R. Beecher

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.