Mark Culhane
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, your line is opened
Thank you, Scott. And good afternoon, everyone. I would like to begin by discussing how COVID-19 impacted our business in Q1, what we are seeing so far in Q2 and how we are thinking about the business for the rest of 2020. First of all, I would like to reiterate what Vic and Scott said. I am extremely proud of how our company has responded to the crisis and the enthusiasm, energy, and efforts of our employees in support of our customers and each other. It is truly inspiring. Now, with regard to our business trends in Q1. Outside of China, our business was off-the-record. We had a great deal of momentum coming out of our sales kick-off in January and we're tracking to a solid quarter and here. However, as you know, we do a significant amount of our business in the last two weeks of the last month of the quarter. And we saw a substantial fall off in engagement during that time as shelter and place and other restrictions were instituted across geographies, affecting our ability to conduct business as usual. This extraordinary situation negatively impacted the close out of our quarter which directly influenced the outcome of our reported key metrics. Here, our growth, free cash flow, and recurring revenue. Coming into the quarter, we had some loan term primarily from a legacy retailer that has been in bankruptcy proceedings and a large credit card oriented financial company that has been vocal about transitioning of Teradata for the last several years. Our plan included plenty of incremental opportunities to offset this known activity in the quarter. But with the uncertainties due to COVID-19, they didn’t entirely materialize, impacting our reported ARR growth and recurring revenue. This combined with over 4 million in foreign currency headwind and an inability to get all renewals completed in a timely manner, resulted in a sequential decline in recurring revenues compared to Q4 2019. Several of these transactions closed in April. We will see some incremental impact from the retailer going through the bankruptcy proceedings in the second quarter but we know of no other incremental churn of this magnitude going forward and we have not seen a material increase in unexpected churn thus far in the second quarter. All of which are positive for us moving forward. Particularly, given the composition of our customer base which I will speak to shortly. At the perpetual revenue, it was higher than we expected as a few customers preferred to use CapEx to execute purposes. And we see some signs that this trend potentially might continue through the year given the COVID-19 environment we are in. As for consulting revenue, it was also negatively impacted during the transition to work from home and shelter and place. And some projects were suspended and or delayed. All gross margins increased 260 basis points year-over-year due to continued mix, a higher margin recurring revenue. On the other hand, recurring gross margins were down over 300 basis points due to the increased mix of lower margin cloud revenues and the impact of FX revaluation as the sudden shift in developing markets currency rates which we cannot hedge greater than incremental headwinds. We remain pleased with our progress in the cloud and expect cloud gross margins to expand substantially over the next 18 to 24 months. We also continue to expect total gross margins to be up year-over-year even with the modest increase in perpetual revenue assumptions. Turning to expenses. R&D expenses were down 10% as a result of reprioritizing certain initiatives and the related cost actions we took in Q4. We are planning to reallocate that spend to accelerate our cloud efforts. And R&D spend is likely to be flat just slightly up for the year. The increase in SG&A expense can be attributed to investments we are making in partners and customer success as well as amortization of commissions expense given our transition to a subscription model during 2019. For the year, we expect SG&A to be up low to mid-single digit. Taken together, we expect OpEx to be up low-single digit. However, we have a number of contingency plans in place to modify this if demand trends weaken versus what we see in our pipeline. Turning to free cash flow, we clearly experienced cash collection delays late in the quarter and from COVID-19 resulting in a significantly missing our cash collection forecast by over 30 million. And that negatively impacted free cash flow in the quarter. However, we have substantially collected these payments in April. Subsequent to quarter end, we have experienced request for extended payment terms from some customers in vertical that experienced in pandemic and we have largely accommodated those requests to support our customers through these trying times. Turning to the balance sheet. In addition to the cash collections impact on DSO, we did see an impact on the differed revenue due to delays in closing deals and customers getting POs approved to enable invoicing. And as companies transition to work from home in late March. This, in addition to CapEx, had a negative billings impact on deferred revenue of nearly 40 million. Our customer base consists of the largest and most stable companies in the world. They are enterprise customers not SMB customers. And our growth prospects for the year as it has been for the last few years of our transformation, is predicated on our existing customer base not on having to attract new logos which in the current environment is difficult at best. We don’t normally breakout revenue by vertical but given the extraordinary times, we want to provide additional transparency to help investors understand the dynamics with our business and customer base. We have large customers in certain sectors of retail, hospitality and travelling transportation verticals. Which have been particularly hard hit bit COVID-19. However, these customers represented less than 12% of our 2019 revenue. On the other hand, financial services, government, and healthcare customers make up over 60% of our revenue and these verticals have remained solid. Our overall business remains robust and although our supply chain has seen minor impact, we have not been impaired in our ability to deliver product or provide support to our customers. In addition, we have a number of contingency plans in place for upcoming quarters and do not expect to see significant disruption and our ability to deliver to our customers. Our financial position remains very strong. It's roughly 150 million in excess cash, significant room within our debt covenants and a 400 million revolver which we don’t currently plan to draw on. In addition, we continue to have plenty of access to credit to support our capitalized lease programs. However, we do believe it's wise to suspend our share buyback program until further notice. We bought back approximately 3.7 million shares in Q1 at an average price of $20.52 or 75 million. As a result, our full-year expected weighted average share count is approximately 111 million shares, assuming no additional share repurchases. Now, turning to our outlook for the remainder of the year. Through April, we have seen a high level of engagement with our customers albeit virtually and a very high level of deal activity and proposals for Q2. Obviously, the current conditions make the closed rates of this activity difficult to predict and we or expected to take longer to get deals done. But it provide incremental confidence in the resilience of our business model during this unprecedented time. We have also seen the majority of our consulting project moved to remote and have been able to deliver on project at the latest plan. We have been impressed by how quickly our consulting organization was able to pivot to our remote work environment and are proud of their ability to deliver on our existing agreement. However, we have seen and continue to expect to see new consulting projects being delayed or cancelled while our customers focus on getting through this pandemic. And expected will significantly impact our consulting revenues for the year. We have scrubbed our pipeline and despite the disruptions to our business, we have only seen it come down modestly. And it remains supportive of our original ARR growth guidance, so with less pushes. However, given the macro uncertainty in the second half, we believe it's wise to withdraw our previously announced annual guidance. We will reassess this on our Q2 call and keep you updated as the year progresses. We remain confident that we will see solid ARR growth, improved free cash flow versus the prior year which we still believe was the bottom and recurring revenue for the full-year greater than the prior year. But the magnitude of such growth will ultimately depend on the shape and timing of the recovery. Remember, we can make up ARR growth in a day by closing a significant deal or free cash flow by making significant cash collections in a day but recurring revenue recognition about ARR growth over the time remaining left in the calendar year. And if a deal takes longer than expected to close, that makes the recurring revenue growth more unpredictable in the current environment. We have several contingency plans in place depending on how long the pandemic interruptions last and what the second half spending environment looks like. Right now, our focus is on protecting jobs and cutting variable expenses in areas like travel and entertainment, both honing our Teradata universe customer and partner contract and moving other marketing events to virtual events while continuing our efforts in the cloud, deepening our relationships with customers that's got to drift and supporting our employee. We believe during an uncertain time incumbency as a big advantage and we are going to press that advantage while supporting our customers. We are guiding to Q2 recurring revenue on non-GAAP earnings per share. Recurring revenue is expected to be between 348 million and 352 million and non-GAAP EPS between $0.19 and to $0.22. We believe we are being appropriately conservative in this outlook and the low end of our recurring revenue guidance and limited new business in the last few months of the quarter. This is not at all indicative of our pipeline, I wanted to make sure we can deliver on our outlook given the current overall macro. A full-year non-GAAP effective tax rate is anticipated to be approximately 23%, however the quarterly effective tax rate could be somewhat variable on a quarter-to-quarter basis this year. As you saw this quarter with the unanticipated tax benefit which will reverse out in future quarters as our free cash earnings increase. Our Q2 non-GAAP EPS assumes a tax rate of 27% and a weighted average share count of approximately 110 million. As a reminder, we have an earnings discussion document that provides additional details on key business segments posted on the IR website. And with that, let's open it up to questions.