Mark Culhane
Analyst · Bank of America
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I will talk about our progress in the cloud, operational improvements made in 2019 and conclude with our financial results, including our 2020 outlook. Starting with the cloud, as Vic mentioned, our public cloud customers more than doubled in 2019, and we nearly doubled our cloud ARR. We saw increasing momentum as the year went along, including several big competitive wins in Q4, a few of which Scott just highlighted. Cloud is a huge opportunity for Teradata as we are the only option at scale for a true hybrid and multi-cloud environment. Given our growing momentum, we are investing heavily in this area, while driving improved efficiency in other areas of R&D. To help customers experience the power of Teradata Vantage in the cloud, we recently launched new capabilities that will make it significantly easier to demonstrate what is possible with Vantage and further strengthen our competitive position. This new trial environment will be a great enabler in driving the expanded go-to-market focus that Scott spoke about, and over time, should help support new logo growth at Teradata. While 2019 didn't turn out as well as we would have liked. As we exited the year, we made significant progress in addressing operational issues, and we had several successes that set us up in a much stronger position entering 2020. First, as Vic mentioned, we largely completed our business model transition, and we are expecting little to no perpetual revenue in 2020. In addition, we realigned our go-to-market organization around enterprise and commercial markets, driving significant cost savings and a much more effective model to serve our key market segments [indiscernible] Finally, in 2019, and we refocused our consulting organization on Vantage-oriented offerings, and we dramatically reduced our footprint in noncore consulting engagements. By the end of 2020, we should be through this part of the consulting transformation. While this reduction didn't result in the margin improvements we expected in 2019. We are better positioned for profitable consulting growth longer term. This dynamic should improve meaningfully in 2020, allowing our reported margins to improve significantly. Longer term, we continue to expect a deepening partner ecosystem and product simplification to allow us to focus Teradata's consulting organization on more strategic engagements, while creating greater total value for our customers. Now turning to the financials. As a reminder, we have placed an earnings discussion document on the IR website that walks through the dynamics in various segments of our financial statements. I will discuss some of the key dynamics driving our growth and margins, including an update on our consulting transformation and then discuss our outlook for 2020. Our Q4 results were largely in line to slightly better than our expectations. For 2019, total ARR growth ended at 9% year-over-year. Our ARR is composed of 3 main categories; subscription and cloud-related ARR. ARR related to our legacy perpetual maintenance and software upgrade rights and ARR related to subscription-based managed services. At the end of 2019, our ARR makeup consisted of $700 million of subscription and cloud-related ARR, up 42%. $615 million of perpetual license maintenance and software upgrade rights related ADRR, down 14% and managed services related ARR of $112 million, which grew 13%. Importantly, subscription and cloud-related ARR now comprise 49% or nearly half of our total ARR, which is nearing an important inflection point in our transformation. The slower rate of decline in our maintenance and software upgrade related ARR compared to 2018 is by design and results from changes in compensation that removed incentives to merely convert existing perpetual licenses to subscription without also growing subscription licenses. Over time, we continue to expect our subscription business to continue to show healthy growth, while maintenance and software upgrade rights related ARR is likely to decline low double digits. For Q4, 89% of our bookings were subscription-based. For the full year, subscription bookings were 88% of the total. [Technical difficulty] mentioned last quarter, we will no longer be providing the bookings mix as a key metric because we expect little to no perpetual revenue in 2020, while we have a long tail of customers currently on maintenance converting to subscription-based deals over time, there are dramatic declines in perpetual revenue and the resulting headwinds it creates for total revenue peaked in 2019 and will largely be behind us after 2020. Deferred revenue came in at $533 million, which was down 10% year-over-year. However, there are a couple of key dynamics to be aware of in our deferred revenue when comparing year-over-year. Our long-term deferred revenue came down as expected as we amortized to revenue, a few large multiyear prepaid deals from 2017 and 2018, which we have discussed on prior earnings calls. And we didn't have any similar multiyear prepaid deals in 2019. We expect this trend to continue as those deals were outliers, and we expect nearly all our billing terms to be annual or less going forward. And the decline in short-term deferred was driven by the planned reduction in consulting revenues, consistent with moving our focus away from noncore consulting engagements. We will not be providing this deferred breakdown going forward, but we understand many investors look at deferred and billings growth and analyzing subscription companies and wanted to make sure investors understand the key dynamics driving near-term headwinds to our total deferred balance. Total backlog grew 7% year-over-year. Despite significantly short overall contract durations compared to 2018. We believe this shows the strength and commitment of our customer relationships and continued adoption of our core product platform. As a reminder, in 2019, we changed our compensation structure to only compensate on deals up to 3 years versus 5 years in 2018. This drove a meaningful reduction in our contract durations from well over 4 years in 2018 to closer to 3 years in 2019. We expect deal durations to remain stable in 2020. Before I continue, I want to make it clear that unless stated otherwise, my comments today reflect Teradata's results on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes items such as stock-based compensation expense and other special items identified in our earnings release. For the year, non-GAAP gross margins expanded 270 basis points. Just below our target range of margin expansion, revenue mix shift from lower-margin consulting and perpetual revenue to higher-margin recurring revenue drove this margin expansion, and we expect this dynamic to continue in 2020. In 2020, recurring gross margins will roughly be in line with 2019 as our cloud recurring revenue currently have lower gross margins than overall recurring revenue gross margin. We believe most of our cloud business is incremental, and we are more than happy to see a short-term margin headwind since we believe this will drive significant incremental value to Teradata and our customers over time. Considering these overall business dynamics, we expect total gross margins will expand another 200 to 300 basis points in 2020. Total operating expenses declined 6% in 2019 and as we work hard to drive operational efficiency across all functions in the organization. Despite this decline, total operating margins were largely flat year-over-year. As total revenue decline driven by our model transition to subscription and the rightsizing of the consulting organization offset the efficiency gains. This were streamlined footprint will allow us to invest aggressively in cloud will deliver operating margin improvement moving forward. As a result, we expect operating margins to expand roughly 100 basis points in 2020. Now turning to the rest of our outlook. We are confident in our long-term growth prospects going forward and will make the key investments in cloud, vantage and expanding go-to-market to take advantage of our opportunities. We believe we are entering 2020 in a much stronger operational and product position than in 2019 with stronger leadership, a stable sales organization and maturing Vantage and cloud offerings. For 2020, we expect ARR growth of at least 8%. And recurring revenue to grow at least 8% as well. Taking into consideration the growth in recurring revenue, reduced perpetual revenue given we expect little to no perpetual revenue in 2020 and reduced consulting revenues of mid-single digits. We believe total revenues will be essentially flat to down slightly for the full year. We expect non-GAAP EPS in a range of $1.18 to $1. 22 based on an assumption of 112.2 million weighted average shares outstanding. We also expect free cash flow at least $150 million in 2020. While the magnitude of our restructuring charges will be significantly lower in 2020 versus 2019, we still expect roughly $20 million in restructuring which is baked into our free cash flow guide. Through Q1, we expect recurring revenue of $353 million to $355 million and non-GAAP EPS of $22 million to $0.24 with 112 million weighted average shares outstanding. And with that, operator, we would like to take questions.