Stephen M. Scheppmann
Analyst · Derrick Wood of Susquehanna International Group
Thanks, Mike, and good morning. Fourth quarter product revenue of $360 million was down 3% from the fourth quarter of 2013, down 1% in constant currency. For the full year, product revenue was flat, up 1% in constant currency. In the quarter, services revenue of $401 million was up 1% from the fourth quarter of 2013 and up 6% in constant currency. For the full year, services revenue was up 3%, up 5% in constant currency. Within services revenue, in the quarter, consulting services revenue was $225 million, flat versus the fourth quarter of 2013, up 5% in constant currency. Maintenance services revenues was $176 million, which was up 2% from Q4 2013 and up 6% in constant currency. For the full year, consulting services was flat, but up 2% in constant currency and maintenance revenue was up 7%, up 8% in constant currency. Overall, currency created a 4-point headwind on the reported revenue growth for the quarter, which was 2 points higher than what we had previously assumed. For the full year, currency created a 2-point headwind, which is twice was much as the 1 percentage point impact we expected on our full year results when we provided our commentary at the time we announced our third quarter results. Not only did currency have a meaningful impact on our year-over-year revenue comparisons, but it also negatively impacted our profitability as approximately 1/3 of the currency impact on revenue hits our operating income. At this time, I'll provide color on the global 2014 revenue contribution by industry vertical to our Data Warehouse, Big Data and consulting services revenue. These contributions do not include maintenance or applications revenue. The following significant industry verticals contributed the same percentage of revenue in 2014 and 2013: financial services 31%, communications 19%, retail 14% and manufacturing 13%. With respect to the other industries, health care contributed 6% of our revenue versus 8% in 2013; government was 7% of our revenue, up from 6% in 2013; travel and transportation also contributed approximately 7%, up from 6% in 2013; energy and utilities generated a little more than 1% of revenue in each year; while Other accounted for the remaining 2% in both years. In terms of year-over-year revenue change, all industries were up 1% to down 3% except: travel and transportation, up 20%; government, up 14%; energy and utilities, up 8%; and health care, down 16%. During my discussion today, except where otherwise noted, I'll be addressing margins and expenses on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes stock-based composition and other special items. Product gross margin in the fourth quarter returned to the mid-60s as anticipated, specifically 65.8% compared to last year's Q4 product margin of 68.5%. The primary drivers of the change were deal mix and product mix. For the full year, product gross margin was 65.2% compared to 66.2% in 2013. The lower margin in 2014 was primarily the net result of increased FAS 86 amortization. Services gross margin in the quarter was 48.9%, up 200 basis points from the 46.9% in Q4 2013. The increase was driven by improved maintenance and consulting yields. Services gross margin for the full year was 47.6%, similar to last year's 47.5%. Overall gross margin was 56.9% in the fourth quarter versus 57.3% in the fourth quarter of 2013. For the full year, gross margin was 55.5% compared to 56% in 2013. The net decrease was largely due to the increased amortization of FAS 86. Turning to operating expenses. SG&A expense of $198 million was only $1 million higher than the fourth quarter of 2013. For the full year, SG&A was 1 -- $715 million, a modest 2% increase from the 2013 level. Research and development expense in the quarter was $48 million, up $9 million from the fourth quarter of 2013. For the year, R&D increased 9% to $180 million. For both the quarter and the full year, the increase in R&D expense was primarily due to additional investments, including acquisitions in our Big Data and Marketing Analytics Solutions. Total R&D spend for the fourth quarter, which includes the R&D expense just described plus the additions to capitalized software costs from the cash flow statement less capitalization of internally developed software, was $64 million. This compared to $60 million in Q4 2013. Year-to-date, total R&D spend was $248 million or 20% of our product revenue versus $237 million in 2013. As a reminder, these capitalized costs, when amortized, are classified in the income statement as product cost of revenue, which reduces product gross margin. As a result of these items, operating margin for the quarter was 24.6% versus 26.7% in Q4 2013. For the full year, operating margin was 22.7% versus 23.8% in 2013. Our non-GAAP effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 25.1% versus 29.4% for the same period in 2013. The difference was due to a higher proportion of foreign pretax earnings in 2014 versus the prior period and a $4 million discrete tax benefit for the retroactive restatement of the 2014 U.S. Federal Research and Development Tax Credit recognized during the fourth quarter 2014. The full year 2014 non-GAAP effective tax rate was 27.2%, 1 point lower than the 2013 tax rate due to higher proportion of foreign pretax earnings in 2014 versus the prior period. Looking forward. For 2015, we expect the GAAP effective tax rate to be approximately 26% and the non-GAAP effective tax rate to be approximately 27% to 28% with the actual rate being heavily dependent on our earnings mix. In addition, both tax rates presume that the U.S. R&D tax credit will be reinstated in 2015. However, our quarterly effective tax rates will be negatively impacted by approximately 80 basis points until such time the credit is reinstated. In terms of earnings per share. Our Q4 GAAP EPS was $0.77 compared to $0.68 in Q4 2013. Adjusting for stock-based compensation and other special items, which equated to $22 million or $0.14 in the quarter, our non-GAAP EPS was $0.91 compared to $0.88 in Q4 2013. For the full year, GAAP EPS was $2.33 compared to $2.27 in 2013. Stock-based compensation and other special items negatively impacted our full year GAAP net income by $85 million or $0.53 per share in 2014 versus $82 million or $0.49 per share in 2013. Adjusting for these items, 2014 full year non-GAAP EPS was $2.86 versus $2.76 in 2013. Turning to cash flow. Net cash provided by operating activities in Q4 was better than expected at $97 million in Q4 2014. This was a meaningful increase over the $63 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. The strong cash flow performance was primarily due to net changes in accounts receivable due to timing of collections. After $35 million of capital expenditures, which include additions of capitalized software development costs and expenditures for property and equipment, versus $38 million in the fourth quarter of 2013, we generated $62 million of free cash flow versus the $25 million of free cash flow generated in Q4 2013. Free cash flow in 2014 was $551 million versus $372 million in 2013. The timing of accounts receivable collections led to the higher free cash flow versus 2013. Going forward, due to the expected differences between free cash flow and net income, such as stock-based compensation and acquired intangible amortization, we now expect full year free cash flow to be within a range that is up to $50 million higher than GAAP net income. Moving on to the balance sheet. We had $834 million of cash as of December 31, 2014, up $139 million from December 31, 2013. Of this balance, over 90% is held offshore. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased approximately 6 million shares for $268 million. For 2014, we repurchased approximately 13 million shares of our stock for $560 million. To fund a portion of these share repurchases in the fourth quarter, we drew down $220 million on our credit facility as of 12/31/2014. As of December 31, 2014, we had approximately $394 million of share repurchase authorization remaining available for additional share repurchases. Additionally, we repurchased 2.1 million shares in the first quarter of 2015 at a cost of $92 million. As a result, we have now approximately $300 million of share repurchases authorization remaining. We also used approximately $20 million for tuck-in acquisitions during the quarter, $69 million during the year. With respect to accounts receivable, accounts receivable decreased $98 million in Q4 2014 versus Q4 2013. Days sales outstanding was 83 days as of December 31, 2014, compared to 97 days at December 31, 2013. And finally, total deferred revenue was $388 million as of December 31, 2014, which was down $27 million from December 31, 2013. As I transition into the guidance discussion, I just want to highlight a few items. As the market and our business continues to evolve, we are stepping up our investments in our Big Data Analytics and application businesses in 2015. We expect to increase our investments by approximately $50 million during the year in various aspects of our business, which should lead to an improving situation in 2016. Even though our operating income and EPS will be negatively impacted in 2015 by these investments, we expect revenue, operating income, recurring revenue and EPS to see improvement in 2016 and beyond. However, for 2015, as it relates to currency, assuming the currency exchange rates as of January 30, we expect currency to create a 5% headwind to our full year revenue comparisons in 2015 with also a 5% headwind in Q1 2015. As it relates to revenue, we expect reported revenue to grow in the range of minus 2% to 0% or 3% to 5% when measured in constant currency. This would translate into a full year reported revenue in the approximate range of $2.677 billion to $2.732 billion. Correspondingy, in terms of EPS, we expect GAAP EPS in the $1.91 to $2.11 range, which translates to $2.50 to $2.70 on a non-GAAP basis when excluding stock-based compensation expense and special items. Currency is obviously having a big impact on many U.S.-based companies that have a high percentage of their business internationally. For Teradata, approximately half our business is done outside of the U.S. As a result of the currency impact we see on our top line revenue growth, we expect about 1/3 will flow through to impact operating income. If you adjust for currency, our 2015 constant-currency non-GAAP EPS would be in the $2.72 to $2.92 range. However, to reiterate, our non-GAAP reported EPS guidance range for 2015 is $2.50 to $2.70. Other specific items impacting our 2015 guidance include the following: One, decrease in FAS 86 capitalization of $5 million to $10 million occurring in 2015, especially pronounced in the first part of the year with $7 million decrease expected in Q1. As a reminder, decreased FAS 86 capitalization has the effect of increasing the amount of R&D expense reported on the income statement. Second, increase in incentive variable compensation cost due to not achieving our bonus thresholds in 2014 but assuming in our plan we reach the thresholds in 2015, thereby creating an increase in incentive comp of approximately $30 million. Third, full year GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 26% and non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 27% to 28% that is heavily dependent upon the earnings mix. In addition, both rates presume that the U.S. R&D tax credit will be reinstated in 2015. However, until such time the credit is officially reenacted, our effective tax rate for each quarter will be negatively impacted by approximately 80 basis points. Fourth, weighted average shares outstanding for the full year is expected to approximate 146 million but naturally higher in Q1. And finally, specifically as it relates to Q1 2015, we expect reported revenue to decline as our international region will face an approximately 13-point currency headwind. And our Americas region compares against an 8% growth rate in Q1 2013. As a result of these factors and our anticipated Q1 revenue mix and including our increased expenses, operating income will be significantly below Q1 2013's results. In closing, we are proactively investing in our businesses, including stepped-up R&D initiatives, sales support and demand creation resources for both our Data Warehouse Analytics business as well as our Applications business in order to drive future revenue growth and further enhance our technology leadership position. And with that, we are ready to take questions.