Robert E. Alderson
Analyst · Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets
Good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report a good second quarter. And the good news is that our merchandising momentum continues. We met our projected sales despite continued headwinds in traffic. Improved conversion and average ticket helped overcome much of that traffic shortfall. Importantly, we exceeded our earnings expectations with improved and strong merchandise margin increases, as we had suggested would happen, with a combination of better information and merchandising practices, lower average inventory levels and a product mix that's resonating better with our customer base as evidenced not only by the margin results but a steady return, increased gross margin return investment and lower markdown rate versus the prior-year period. We're pleased with our inventory position in both amount and content, as we enter the important back half of the year. We'll closely monitor inventory levels and the number of and margin impact of promotional activities during the back half to maximize both the productivity of our inventory and create excitement in our stores. Assuming as we do that tepid growth in the economy is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, we believe our best opportunity is improving operating margins and earnings rather than extraordinary promotional actions during the holiday periods directed to traffic gains. We'll approach traffic improvement with a much more highly directed marketing effort based on the success of multi-marketed tests we have conducted over the last several months. In the second quarter, in our major categories, we had strong results in lamps, decorative wall decor, textiles, mirrors, candles, lighting and fragrance and housewares. As a whole, the wall decor category was virtually -- or division was virtually flat to last year, while the home decor division showed a low-single digit comp increase. We expect continued incremental improvement in sales and margin performance from our major categories, as we leverage better information from our merchandise systems. Our planning allocation module installation for Oracle continues on pace toward training and implementation in the back half. CRM loyalty is next up for the back half on the schedule of system installations and upgrades, as we continue our foundational systems installation work. Store openings accelerated modestly during the quarter with no real surprises. Our advice on the number of store openings, 25, and closings approximately 20 reflects our present best estimate of the 2013 class. Openings are less likely to increase materially. On the other hand, anticipated closings from the back half have increased from our prior advice due to early terminations by landlords and several of our short-term mall lease extension deals, the great majority of which are planned to be eventually replaced to the strip center location. As the leasing year has developed, the need to reposition certain of the stores to strip centers from regional malls did not match with space availability, generally due to various multiple simple timing issues that are bound in commercial real estate. Therefore, it's possible we will show modest unit growth and slightly better square footage growth during the year. As we suggested several months ago, we believe we must carefully measure our store growth plans and expectations by both market and deal availability, while, at the same time, pushing hard to scale up our online business. We will continue to remain very aware of changes in trends in our business, resulting from our larger online business and the compounding strong e-commerce business growth in the retail sector generally, as well as customer allocation of their disposable income for what has become technology needs, smartphones and tablets, as well as Internet retail spending. We are as aware of Amazon and Apple as Walmart and Target. All counts, however, profoundly different, are taking increasingly significant dollars share of the consumer spend. Technology advances continue to shape and drive lifestyle changes. So our task is to make our product easily available for both sale and delivery, as well as compelling and to sell that however the customer wants to buy. Early third quarter sales results of Halloween and harvest seasonal products are promising as to the sales and margin results. Fully deployed, we will offer an updated SKU group at similar inventory levels to last year. Harvest will be the larger merchandise group based on sales rates, longer time relevance and competitive factors presented by the overabundance of Halloween vendors selling in secondary available temporary space in a variety of venues. We like both the content of the offering and the store plan for presentation and promotion and expect strong and favorable customer response again this season. We will deliver Christmas items to stores slightly earlier this year. And again, consistent with customers' expectations for Kirkland's, we'll offer a largely new and updated SKU group, which also includes significant merchandise wins tested last year. Again, we anticipate a similar to slightly lower inventory offering to last year. Pre-lift [ph] decorative product will lead in several categories driven by the seasonal periods. Promotions will drive sales in difficult holiday promotional time periods, but bracket somewhat smaller effective dates for each event. Our multi-marketed -- multi-market marketing test project designed to suggest our best opportunity is to produce increased traffic and sales results through omni channel messaging and data-driven tactics continues. Our effort is focused on traffic and customer additions, repetitions and retention to enhance revenue. Results to date are sufficiently positive to extend the test project through December and to expand the type of customer impressions in selected markets. Marketing efforts on expanding our 3 million customer e-mail base is aimed at better targeting and presenting to our customers, so that our highly leverage-able open rate on e-mails increases e-mail-related revenue at definable and sustainable rates on an annual basis. We can constantly tweak our new store PR program in order to find the most productive sales and customer acquisition grand opening program. We're trying to learn how to leverage not only the shopping center grand opening opportunity, but a simple store opening in an existing center in more recently what follow-on opportunities generate a stronger and more sustained customer response. Mobile retailing and search engine marketing are the subject of daily effort and emphasis in our marketing group to drive tangible revenue results and to also more fully understand the type and amount of investment needed to realize our opportunity. Search engine optimization, in particular, is promising and suggests a steady, predictable and large return in people and dollar investment. Kirkland's remains fully committed to delivering a strong and more effective marketing message and to building a recognizable and desirable multi-channel and national brand. Our e-commerce website operation has generated almost 4.5% of total revenue in the second quarter better than the prior-year period and a 27% comp to last year. Conversion rates in total web-based transactions increased nicely in comparison to the prior-year period. Revenue continues to be split somewhat evenly between direct-to-customer and in-store pickup. While growth is positive, we're constantly evaluating our web SKU mix, our platform capability and navigability, our transparency to customers for available products, social marketing connections and social engine positions -- search engine positioning. We're committed to developing the channel and providing our customers with a fully seamless experience, whether purchasing merchandise from stores or online. We expect to report on many of these initiatives for quite a few quarters, as they are significant and ongoing projects for Kirkland's and other retailers. The third quarter is underway. It's early, about 3 weeks into a 13-week period, where business accelerates as we go deeper into the quarter. And so far, the results are favorable. We're looking forward to reporting again in November when we have a truer sense of the direction of performance and what is sure to be again a challenging time with continued economic, political and social challenges. We expect interest rates to play an increased role in customers' expectations during the fall. As the Fed moves inexorably to a moment of less support and artificial stimulation to a sluggish economy, absent a major intervening political or economic event. Government shutdowns may be threatened as a result of governmental struggles with the implementation of Obamacare and budget authorizations, Middle East turmoil can adversely affect consumer disposable income almost instantly. There are many potential problems, but conversely, many opportunities. We remain cautious about the short- and long-term outlook, but very positive on the progress and opportunities for our business. Consequently, we will continue to invest carefully in stores and inventory and seek to maximize operating margin in every selling opportunity, leveraging our foundational work for the past couple of years. We very much appreciate your time and interest and are ready to accept questions. Thank you.