Juergen Stark
Analyst · Cowen and Company. Your line is now open
Great. Thanks, John. I’ll provide some further context in our headset and HyperSound businesses and our expected outlook. As mentioned earlier, we successfully transitioned manufacturing partners for Foxconn, along with our recently announced global logistics partnership with Keuhne + Nagel, we believe we have executed on several key parts of our supply chain strategy. This strategy is designed to support market expansion as we manage costs, optimize inventory, maintain superior product quality, and enable flexibility for regional manufacturing over time. Our strong portfolio new product launches and supply chain improvements have produced improved headset sales and product margins. However, as we have previously disclosed, the strong dollar can have a significant impact on our international business that goes well beyond simple constant currency calculations. In most European countries and in Australia, we sell through distributors and those partners buy in dollars. The strong dollar increases their product costs in local currency reducing their margins or forcing them to raise prices, which lowers our sales. We’ve also seen some weakness in our UK business, where we sell direct to retailers. So far we’ve been offsetting some of this pressure with strong domestic performance, which we expect to continue. But following the third quarter, it has become clear that Europe and Australia will create $10 to $15 million of pressure on our roughly flat revenue guidance for the year. We’ve not been sitting still for this. In addition to actively working with our distributors, we have now moved two large pan-European retail accounts to a direct sales model. That transition has created some short-term revenue gaps, but we have already started to realize increased margins and market share benefits. And this move should help offset some of the issues created by today’s strong dollar in the future. In addition, we’ve made a decision to delay certain investments in China, given that the console market has not yet begun a meaningful ramp, due to lack of compelling multiplayer games, and we are intentionally restructuring our distribution in Latin America. These are both currently small markets in terms of revenue for us. But together our actions in China and Latin America are expected to reduce revenue in 2015 by roughly $2 million relative to 2014, and about $5 million relative to our prior revenue guidance for the year. Despite these near-term headwinds, we remain confident that our international markets provide compelling long-term growth opportunities for our gaming headset business. Like the U.S. we are the market share and brand leader in the UK by far, and recent sell-through data shows excellent progress in other regions with a growing share in Germany and France. A key part of our plans for 2016 will be continuing to look at how to better accommodate the strong dollar and driving growth in China. During the all important holiday season, we expect our robust North American market to benefit from the broadest most advanced product offering in the industry during a period, where the number of new generation counsel users is expected to surpass those of old generation consoles. October also marked the official launch of HyperSound Clear. This was more challenging and took longer than we had planned. In addition to the innovations on the product itself, we’ve developed significant new capabilities on how to reliably mass produce the unique new type of ultrasound speaker used for HyperSound. As I previously stated we would only launch this product when we were confident we could support production with high-quality and high customer satisfaction. We are very pleased to have achieved this major milestone. Our priority now is to execute a well controlled successful ramp of this new business versus trying to maximize revenues in the first months. We will be rolling out the product into groups of hearing health care provider offices, starting small to ensure proper training, good workflow, high customer satisfaction, and then tweaking any required aspects as we scale from there. So far, we’ve experienced strong initial preorders and have begun our stage rollout to our partners, some of which represent the largest corporations in hearing healthcare. In fact, we’ve secured partnerships with industry-leading channel partners that collectively represent about 4,000 hearing healthcare offices and retail locations in the U.S., or roughly 30%, or roughly 30% of the total points of distribution. And consumer feedback on the product continues to be very positive. We are encouraged by the initial channel reception and expect the moment to continue, as we further rollout this incredible new product. With all this in mind, I’d like to now address our financial outlook for the fourth quarter and full year. Starting with Q4, we’ve revised our outlook and now expect net revenue for our headset business to range between $82 million and $92 million, compared to $91.8 million in the quarter – year ago quarter. This revision is due to my aforementioned comments regarding the international markets. Headset gross margin was expected to improve and be in the range of 31% or better, compared with 28.2% in the year ago quarter. Despite the delay in HyperSound’s launch, revenue is expected to be approximately $2 million in the fourth quarter with net investment on an adjusted EBITDA level expected to range between $3.3 million and $4.3 million. This also reflects a gradual conservative pace of ramping offices as I’ve discussed. Our gross margin target for HyperSound remains 50% long-term, but gross margins are expected to be lower for the first three to four quarters, while we improve yields, optimize product costs, and drive fixed cost leverage with increasing revenues. Headset adjusted EBITDA is now expected to show improvement over the $13.7 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2014. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $9.5 million and $13 million, compared to $10.4 million in the year ago quarter. Net income on a consolidated basis for the fourth quarter is expected to improve to a range of between $3.5 and $7 million, or $0.08 and $0.16 per diluted share, compared to $2.4 million, or $0.06 per diluted share in the year ago quarter. For the full-year of 2015, we’ve also revised our outlook and now expect headset revenue to range between $160 and $170 million, compared to $185.5 million in 2014, with the vast majority of the reduction being a result of the international sales issues I’ve discussed. Please also keep in mind that 2014 included over $15 million in additional revenues during Q1 of 2014 from the delayed 2013 Xbox 1 headset launch, making the annual comparison a bit challenging. Headset gross margin is expected to be at least 26% reflecting good progress on margin improvements, as shown by third quarter results and expected fourth quarter results, but reduced operating leverage due to lower revenues annually in the annual impact of the credits and write-offs taken during the first and second quarters. Revenue from HyperSound is expected to range between $2 and $3 million in 2015 with net investment on an adjusted EBITDA level, ranging between $13 and $14 million. This investment is higher than expected due to the later launch and more conservative ramp plans, as I’ve discussed. Headset adjusted EBITDA in 2015 is expected to be between $2 and $5 million with consolidated adjusted EBITDA loss expected to range between $12 and $8 million. Net loss on a consolidated basis in 2015 is expected to range between $33 million and $29.5 million, or $0.78 and $0.70 per diluted share. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial figures is available in the press release we issued prior to the conference call, which is available on our website. As a result of some of the same issues as we disclosed last week, we’ve amended the covenant terms with both our lenders to provide additional flexibility for the September, October, and November periods. And we will be working to make longer-term adjustments to accommodate our plans and needs for 2016 and beyond. Before we turn it over for questions, I’d like to add some perspective to my commentary on our outlook. Over the past two plus years, we’ve managed through an industry transition that took out more than 70% of our core business, headsets for Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3. It required the launch of a whole new product portfolio for Xbox 1 and PlayStation 4, which we have by far led the industry in executing. And we believe we are now largely passed this transition. Keep in mind that we were about four times larger than the next largest player in the console gaming headset market. So this transition was considerably more challenging for us to manage through than anyone else in the headset category. Despite this, we were first to market with headsets for both new consoles. We delivered fully wireless headsets for Xbox 1 customers nine months ahead of anyone else and continue to lead with three fully wireless models. We still have the only console gaming headset with DTS Headphone X surround sound, noise canceling, or our amazing superhuman hearing capability. As a result of all this, we are the clear category leader with every major gaming retailer. We’ve increased our technology in innovation lead and positioned ourselves to continue to lead from a brand, consumer, product, and operational standpoint. That is a good place to be, particularly with the majority of new generation console sales still expected to come for the latest DFC industry estimates. Indeed while new generation console sales are expected to hit over 50 million units sold life to-date by the end of 2015, DFC estimates more than a 100 million more units are yet to be sold in 2016 through 2019 period. On the headsets, our focus going forward will be to grow top line and profitability. While our full-year comparable results are impacted by write-offs and margin reductions in the first-half of the year associated with old gen transitions and then annual comparison incorporating first quarter of 2014, which included over $15 million of sell-in from the delayed 2013 Xbox One headset launch, both third quarter actuals and fourth quarter guidance show improvement in margins and profitability compared to the same period last year. We believe we’re on the right track. We have an industry leading portfolio for new generation consoles. We are still only at the beginning of what is expected to be a thriving growing console gaming market for the coming years. And while we are largely done with our portfolio transition, we do have a few more technology innovations that we’ve been working on for almost two years that we expect to come to market in 2016. We believe we have an additional growth opportunities from a recovery in Europe, as well as continuing to grow market share in this important region for Turtle Beach. China for us remains largely untapped. In addition to the potential console market growth in China, we believe we have opportunities to grow our PC gaming headset business there and in other parts of the world. We have opportunities to continue to improve margins as old gen winds down, and from the operational strengths we put in place, and we will continue to closely manage our operating expenses in the headset business. On HyperSound, our focus going forward will be to successfully ramp the healthcare product and get that business to cash flow break-even. We are shipping the product, it works. It’s highly patented and has proven benefits for global population of 350 million people with hearing loss. The product is currently purchased by this population today hearing aids generate a nearly $6 billion market, and hearing aid penetration is typically below 25%. While we are going to execute a careful control ramp of this business, we believe it is a significant market opportunity. And that leaves out the potential other new applications for directed audio in other markets. For example, we’ve demonstrated success with commercial retail displays using HyperSound, including the release of market data that shows the sales benefits of adding HyperSound to retail environments. While we’ve intentionally put very few resources into this segment of the market in 2015, in order to focus on the hearing product, it is starting to show good steady growth. And as I’ve indicated in the past, we are making good progress demonstrating the possibility of transparent HyperSound in admitters [ph]. Over time, we plan to look at additional opportunities in consumer audio, healthcare, and commercial markets with HyperSound. Given all the complex dynamics that affected our headset business over the past two plus years, as well as our simultaneous commercialization of HyperSound to a revenue-producing enterprise, we believe we’ve executed very well on all of the product and operational aspects of our business. We believe this will lay the groundwork for years to come. I’m very proud of our team for that and thank them for all of their continued dedication and good work. Going into 2016 with a product portfolio transition largely behind us, proportionally lower old gen headset sales, growing new gen headset sales, and HyperSound Clear now launched, we believe we are well positioned to drive top line growth and increasing profitability. Operator, we are now ready to take your questions.