Rong Luo
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead
Thank you, Alex. I think it’s a very good question. Right before we talk about some numbers, some certain numbers in this quarter or next quarter, we would like to take this opportunity to walk through our business logic and strategies as a whole to give you some information why – what we are doing and why we are doing. I think if you guys can remember, I think 6 years ago, even earlier, we are a traditional offline tutoring company. We have high-quality teachers. We bring a lot of learning centers. We do our classrooms, we feed students in and we do a lot of stuff like that. So under that operational model, I think in the past years for example between 2014 to 2018, we have entered the cities from 16 to 42. So that is kind of the traditional models we are running today, which is also quite common to see in offline tutoring markets. But coming to the year 2018, I think around 2 years ago, if you guys can still remember, we, as the first one in this industry, we invented or developed the online – the new online education models. So we introduced the online live platform into our products. So we have built a dual-teacher online model in this sector. I think that’s the first time for this industry we can separate the learning and the practice, which has separated the role of master teachers and assistant teachers. The master teachers can teach a lot of students at the same time, while the assistant teachers taking care of – helping them in the online environment. So this kind of dual-teacher online class models has grown very fast. I think 3 years ago, we only have tens of thousands enrollments. But coming to today, last quarter, we have 2.9 million enrollments. I think the revenue contribution of this model 2 years ago is only around 8%. And 4 years ago, it’s below 3%. Today, it’s now 26%. If I consider that Peiyou online is part of the online, i.e., adding these 2 numbers together, last quarter, we have already reached almost 40% of revenue, 4-0, coming from the online model now; and around 70%, 7-0, coming from the online model now. So this model has a lot of advantages, and we have seen they provide us a lot of capabilities to consolidate this market. If we stay in the traditional offline models, we have a lot of competitors or maybe quanta pass in different cities. We’re running the company for 17 years, but today, we’re still below 5% of the market share. But coming to the online model, we have the chance to see some situations made similar to the server market. So maybe in the future, the top players will be consolidated into maybe top 3 or top 4. So this kind of consolidation opportunity, that is never seen before in this industry. So definitely, in this sector, we definitely, we will keep our investment in technology, in teacher supply chain and as well as marketing to make sure we can maintain our leading positions over here. But on the other side, this model is not a perfect model to resolve all the problems. Education, in the end, is now a simple game of marketing. That is again – that is – the key to playing education is we need to focus to providing the high-quality service to students. We need to pull students in the first priority. We need to not only taking care of the efficiency of the marketing, but also paying careful effectiveness of the students. So when we run into this model, we can see, currently, the online model today, the one master teacher, they’re teaching a lot of students. But it’s a little bit difficult for the students to ask questions because one versus so many asking questions is making it kind of difficult. So – which means maybe this model is more kind of useful to train the students in an individual level or maybe relatively easier contents. It’s a little difficult to talk about the very difficult questions under these models. And one thing we also see that is – if today, I think normally, as also some quanta pass, you guys probably have seen they have raised the funds from the market. I think more or less, this model today, we have been struggling in the new customer acquisition costs, which is very kind of challenging to all of us. We, as a player, who invented this model, our strong belief is online compared to the traditional offline still is a very revolutionary product, and we believe that can help us to gain more market share, much higher than what we can expect in the past. So we need to be very objective on these models. They have some pros and cons. We need to leverage our branding, our contents we have developed and some other advantages we have to try to reduce the operating cost for the online model. So if we benchmark the case in several markets, I think maybe in the end, only the top guys can have most of the revenues, most of the profits. So we definitely will continue our investment over here to make sure we are the leading players even in the coming few years. And I think because of the pandemic in the past 8 months, I think, by chance, they introduced a new opportunity to us, which, frankly speaking, is a little bit of our imagination before. It’s actually we quickly figured out right after so many students, they have to use the online model for a few months. And when the offline learning centers reopened, actually, we see new opportunities maybe we can use the role of online versus offline. Sometimes this OmO sometimes maybe a little bit misleading because different companies may use different definition on this. So I would like to use one example of Shanghai of – a short piece in Shanghai to show you guys. In Shanghai today, I think we have, in the summer term, we have around 120,000 offline enrollments, which means we have 120,000 enrollments in the students coming to our physical classrooms and seen in the classrooms. And at the same time, in summer, we have around 200,000 Peiyou online enrollments. If I’m taking out the promotion enrollments, the number can be still be around 150,000 enrollments. This number is higher than the Peiyou offline enrollments. And besides the Peiyou offline enrollments and the Peiyou online enrollments, we still have around 300,000 short online school, short lines – yes, short online school enrollments in Shanghai. So which means when we go back to see our number in summer in Shanghai City, of course, summer actually is the peak for the year. If we are doing to a number in the fall or winter, the number will be lower than the summer. But if I use the summer numbers, Q2 number as an example, actually, if we figure out in Shanghai, we have maybe around 600,000 enrollments in one city. If you guys have followed my company for a long time, you probably see that. I think 4 or 5 years ago, when you guys asked me, hey, what is your expectations on one single city? How many enrollments you have over there, for example, in Beijing? At that time, my answer is – I was very reluctant to say maybe I can reach the number of 150,000 enrollments for one city. But today, in Shanghai, if we consider all of these enrollments together, we have around 600 enrollments there. And this phenomenon also happened in Beijing, in Guangzhou and some other – and some – and a few other cities because we did not roll out these offers to all the cities, all the grids and all the strategies. We do practicum in the Tier 1, but we still need a – we have a lot of white space in other cities now. This is showing us, actually, that’s the kind of the new opportunity. And that shows us the direction of how we can evolve the offline learning centers in the future. So we pay some very deep dive on the Shanghai numbers. We probably see that while the parents choose the Peiyou online office on top of Peiyou offline, number one, has more frequency. For example, they come to our offline learning centers once away. But at the same time, for example, math, by the same time, they will take the other online sections, maybe the shortened class at the same time for the whole week. Second, maybe it’s more subjects. For example, they come to my learning centers to study math. But maybe they are studying my physics and chemistry in the Peiyou online platform, which is the case already happening in Beijing and Shanghai. And number three, maybe more students. We are also seeing, maybe in Shanghai’s numbers in summer specifically, around 10% to 20% of their Peiyou online students. Actually, they are new students. They are new students, but they are quite close to our learning centers in Shanghai. So which means they know our – they come to our learning centers maybe for the text or maybe for the events or maybe for the activities, but most of the learning activities finished online. So this kind of model is showing us, actually, there’s a good opportunity for us to develop more and invest more on the localized online class models we call the [indiscernible]. What does localize mean? Number one, local content, I think in China, if different provinces, they have different versions, so when we talk about education’s content, they have maybe kind of 3 kind of dimensions: number one is the different versions; number two is progress, different progress; number three is the different difficulty levels. So in China, with more than 30 versions in gaokao and we would probably – we have to be over 200 versions of [indiscernible] and we have maybe thousands of thousands of different versions if we consider the text in the primary school, so – but if we only have one version to all, sometimes we cannot resolve all the problems. So the local content, local product – local progress and the local difficulty levels will be more helpful for the students and for the parents to know what exactly is happening in the city and do better to them. Number two, local teachers, so when guys are weighing our Peiyou online classes, we use the local teachers to teach the students. For example, the teacher in Beijing, they teach the students in Beijing online. So they can still – so they know more about this city. They know more about what’s happening in this district so they can provide more tailor-made and more kind of the use of information to them and show one very small stories. Actually, right before the national holiday, our Beijing school will hold a small event is we ask the Peiyou online students to come to our office to visit our Peiyou online teachers. The children are very excited to see our office. So when weighing why the parents or maybe the students, even they finish their study online but they come to our offline centers for some events, for some seminars, activities, I think this kind of online and offline blending kind of experiences is much better than the other one. Number three is local classmates. I think when you study with your classmates you know some of the people in the class, that will make the interactions between students much more efficient than the other one. Number four is local services. So we have a lot of schools. We have a lot of counties and districts. So only we can provide some specific information on maybe the materials, maybe activities specific for them, and they can see the local needs, which is more help than the one version to all products. So we believe all of this can prepare us to evolve our Peiyou kind of the small class models to the next stage. So as a summary, I think for the Xueersi online school online part, we will keep our investment in technology, teacher supply chain, marketing and some other necessary investments to make sure we can continue being the leading position in this market because this market has shown very clearly the opportunity of consolidating the markets into several players. We definitely need to be one of them. But of course, we will balance the consideration of the investment and ROI to make sure we don’t do something stupid. Secondly, we will accelerate our learning center expansions of Xueersi Peiyou small class. We will also try to enter more cities in the coming two quarters. So I think one number I can share with you guys is, just now you ask why we don’t adding any new learning centers in second quarter because second quarter, that is the pandemic period, so we can’t do anything. But coming to Q3, today, we have already rented 14 new learning centers, and we also have over 50 in the pipeline. I am not sure the reporting periods of these new learning centers because we still need some time to do renovations, ask for license. But we, definitely, we have more on our pipeline to do that. And at the same time, we are also trying to roll out the Peiyou online offerings to more cities, more grids and more strategies, which definitely is our new – is our strategy to go. So if we consider all our information together, I think looking to quarter-over-quarter performance, I think Q2 is probably, top line perspective, Q2 is the lowest growth quarter. Q3, based on information, what we see today, Q3 will be better than Q2, and Q4 will be better than Q3. Of course, all of these estimates are based on one assumption, is we don’t foresee any significant public health crisis coming back again. So we are confident we can continue our growth strategy, as what I talked about just now. Thank you, Alex.