Paul Manning
Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Please go ahead
Okay, so, on the product launch activity, yeah, this is a great thing to see. We saw it most notably in Europe. Europe, the new product launch activity was up about 10% in Q1 versus prior year. You may recall the first half at 2022, Europe's new product launches were down like, mid-teens like 14%, 15%. It got better in the second half and so, left us with a slight decline in 2022. So the year started up very promising, particularly in the European market. But we're also seeing that trend of improving product launches in North America. So that, that is a very, very positive factor. Now, the composition of the new launches, this is something that we talked about, I think it was the last call, folks are kind of interested in what are you seeing? So, in Europe, all of those launches, if you were to break that down by our estimates, we see that as being about 40% of those launches or line extensions, about a third of them would be truly new products and formulations, and then the balance, which I guess would be about 25%. That that's kind of more of just a packaging change, which according to how these metrics are measured is also included in the realm of new launches. So that's a great, great sign there. And so, I think we should expect why I would like to say we should expect continued movement and improvement in that launched activity as the balance of the year unfolds. To your question about destocking, yeah, so I said, in Flavors it was rather dramatic. So in Colors that sort of mid-single-digit headwind 5% or 6%. In Flavors it was about twice that. And, I think the easiest way to talk about destocking because it can obviously just be very confusing for folks on what do you mean destocking? Where is it happening? What are the themes? So, the themes that we see, I look at it in a couple different ways. I look at by geography, I look at types of customers and I look at it in terms of our business units. So with respect to geography, destocking was most pronounced in the U.S. followed by LATAM, I would say kind of a distant third would be Europe. And there was really none in Asia-Pacific, Asia-Pacific was up or the market was up from an organic standpoint. So that's one consideration for destocking. When you think about the types of customers where we saw destocking, broad-based, so B's and C's locals, regionals, you saw it kind of in most parts of, particularly the US market, but most categories most types of customers, but some of the larger multinationals and we can certainly see the popular press to see some of the announcements these companies made about reduction in inventory. In some cases, these multinationals reduce their order patterns by 30% to 40%. And so, as you could imagine, that could be a rather dramatic change in the order pattern. And then, as you think about our business units, we saw this phenomenon F&I, big impact there. Our Bio-Nutrients Group, which sells principally into the probiotics market, big reduction there. Traditional flavors, particularly in beverage categories, big pull back there, in other words, big reduction in stock. And then, certainly, we saw that activity in our Personal Care, our Cosmetics division, there was a fair amount of destocking. Say, mid, maybe even mid-to-high in certain regions. So that's kind of a magnitude. Now, I think we're going to see this destocking continue in Q2. But I see, when your movements are that dramatic in some circles, you can imagine that the positive there is that they get through the destocking rather rapidly, which is good. Some of it may linger in language for the balance of the year. But I think what you'll see in Q2, we will still have some of these destocking headwinds. Perhaps about the magnitudes that you see here in Q1, but I think if you get to Q3, as we project in Q3, as we talk to our customers and canvas them and that's really what you need to do here. Mr. Customer, you are destocking, okay. How much and for how long? And we literally canvas an enormous cross-section of customers and we've concluded with a fair degree of confidence that we think by Q3, the stocking phenomena, I'll be talking about it a heck of a lot less and in some cases not at all for certain regions and types of customers. So, I think that that should largely get at your question there on the destocking.