Mark E. Newman
Analyst · JPMorgan Chase
Thanks, Fritz. As Fritz said, this was a good quarter in line with our expectations. We started with revenue being down. As all of you know, coal is a pass-through in our coke business model. So with lower coal prices, it affects our revenue. And so in part, it was due to coal prices, both in our coke business and our coal business, and in part due to lower volumes in terms of coke sales, primarily driven by production at Indiana Harbor. On the EBITDA front, our coke business continued to improve. We saw an $8.8 million improvement year-over-year, largely driven by Middletown, and I'll take you through that in the EBITDA bridge later on. And then coal was negative in the quarter, again driven by a $50 per ton year-over-year price decline, which was partially offset by about a $23 cash cost per ton reduction, and I'll take you through that in more detail. On the EPS front, again, a number of items that we expected. The accelerated depreciation at Indiana Harbor, our forecast for the full year when we took you through our full year guidance last quarter was $0.14. So this quarter is relatively heavy. Again, the refurbishment is well under way, with our full year expectation still remains at $0.14. We did have the debt issuance related to the MLP. Again, we had expected this to be $0.05 to $0.06, so this came in line. And then finally, the income attributable to SXCP is approximately $0.07 in the quarter and are against our expectation for about $0.30 for the full year. The one item that we did not expect relates to a number of tax items. I'll take you through that when we go through the EPS bridge, but that was about $0.05 in the quarter. Turning to the EBITDA bridge on Chart 6. Again, adjusted EBITDA of $52.3 million, down slightly from the $55.5 million last year. We benefited -- I just say, the comparison to last year on the coke business was that we had a great start in Q1 2012. And all of our plants ran very well, and Middletown was in start-up. So when you compare to last year, what you see is Middletown is up $8.8 million in part due to better cost recovery in the second year of production. And then when we compare to Q1 of last year, we have low -- we didn't have start-up costs and we had some yield issues last year as we were starting up the plant that we don't have it this year. So Middletown was significant contributor, but compared to the other plants, has a better -- has an easier comp on a year-over-year basis. At Indiana Harbor, the refurbishment is well under way, but it is impacting our operating performance. We're basically trying to refurbish the plant while we run it. And so what you'll see is, on an operating basis, we're down $3.1 million year-over-year. However, last year, we had $4.3 million of nonrecurring items related to coke inventory and coal pad -- pad coal adjustments to market. The rest of our coke business shows a slight negative, $2.2 million. I would say most of that can be attributed to 1 less train out of our Jewell operations being placed in the quarter. And with the drop in coal price, we also had some inventory losses in the quarter at Jewell of about $1 million. That explains most of the variance. Again, coal mining is a big negative on an EBITDA basis in the quarter and, again, driven primarily by price. I'll take you through that later. Finally, Corporate is favorable. We had a favorable legal settlement in the quarter. We also had some favorable hedging on the Indian rupee related to our investment. And then finally, we had year-over-year lower incentive comp related to some forfeitures in the quarter. So net-net, a good quarter where our coke business, basically, partially offset very weak coal earnings. On the EPS bridge on Chart 7, as I mentioned earlier, the EBITDA impact on EPS is relatively small. And then the rest of the items, we've highlighted earlier, again, the Indiana Harbor refurbishment accelerated depreciation, the financing costs relative to the MLP IPO. On the tax items, there were really 3 items in the quarter. They're about $3.7 million in total or about $0.05. About 1/2 of that or $1.7 million relates to a provision for certain tax credits that we believe Sunoco may use under the tax sharing agreement. As you'll recall, since the IPO, Sunoco has used approximately $229 million of tax attributes of SunCoke, but those have flown through our equity account. With the 1-year anniversary of the distribution, any further adjustments will flow through our P&L. And so what we have in this quarter is a relatively tiny adjustment of $1.7 million vis-à-vis the $229 million that have been used, but it obviously affects our EPS. Additionally, we determined in the quarter that Middletown, the City of Middletown has a city corporate income tax of 1.75%. And so we had some prior-period adjustments and some valuation allowances related to that item. And the combination is approximately $2 million. On a run-rate basis, the City of Middletown income tax will result in about $1 million annually of tax expense. And we do not expect based on the NOLs at Middletown that Middletown will be tax paying -- cash tax paying before 2017. So no near-term cash impact, but obviously, $1 million annually. And it affected us in the quarter relative to valuation allowances, as well as there were some other state apportionment adjustments as a result of the MLP. And then finally, as Fritz mentioned at the beginning of the call, we will see in every quarter this year a year-over-year unfavorable variance related to the income attributable to noncontrolling interest. I'll just remind you, that really relates to the public unitholders in the MLP, as well as any income that flows through to our investment partner at Indiana Harbor. Okay, turning to liquidity. On Chart 8, you'll see that we ended the quarter on a consolidated basis with cash at SXC and SXCP of $307 million. And then we roughly have $250 million undrawn revolver capacity between the 2 entities. As you'll note, we tried to call out the impact of the IPO transaction. After the repayment of the debt at SXC of $225 million, we're essentially left with $157 million of cash proceeds between the 2 entities. In the quarter -- I wanted to draw your attention to the working capital, which was unfavorable of -- to the tune of $17.5 million. We did have one customer who didn't pay on time in the quarter. The quarter ended March 31, it was a Sunday; the prior Friday was Good Friday. And so we ended up receiving the payment on Monday, on April 1, of $24.5 million. And we have called that out here in the footnotes. In addition, we made a payment of $11.8 million to a customer on some accrued sales discounts, and we paid those early and received a discount on those discounts that were owed to the customer. So in the quarter, we have, I would say, roughly $36 million or $37 million of items that you could normalize relative to our cash performance in the quarter. And then finally, on CapEx and investments. A relatively heavy quarter, $98.2 million in total. And that includes the work that we're doing at Indiana Harbor, the environmental remediation at Haverhill and then finally, the $67.7 million investment in VISA SunCoke. So we ended the quarter, I think, with very strong liquidity in spite of fairly heavy CapEx and investments. Turning to Chart 9, our domestic coke business summary. As you'll see, our production is down slightly year-over-year, mainly due to ongoing issues at Indiana Harbor while we complete the refurbishment, while we have production up in the 2 plants that are in the MLP, Haverhill and Middletown. On the EBITDA-per-ton basis, we're up year-over-year from $51 per ton last year to $58. The other thing I'd point out on this chart, on the right-hand side, we have combined our Jewell coke and other domestic coke segment into a segment now that's entitled Domestic Coke. As we've explained, while there were historic differences between the Jewell coke and the other domestic coke contracts, those differences went away in early 2011. And so, prospectively, we will report all of our domestic coke as one segment going forward. While we're on this chart, I just maybe want to highlight that we do have some outages planned at Haverhill and Middletown in Q2. And so our expectation is Q2, based on these outages, will likely be in the lower end of our $55 to $60 per ton -- EBITDA-per-ton guidance range for Q2. So I just want to leave you with that before we leave this chart. All right, turning to coal. Again, a tough quarter. We reported EBITDA loss of $5 million, so down $12 million from the prior year. As you'll notice, our coal price went from $171 per ton last year to $121, so down an even $50 per ton. We are, though, very encouraged in spite of the EBITDA performance in the quarter by the progress that we've made in our cash cost per ton. And what you'll see is that in the quarter, cash cost on a total basis were down -- was down from $150 per ton last year to $127 in the quarter. And I'll just remind you that we had guided this year that our Jewell cash cost per ton would be $145, and our combined cash costs would be $130. So already in Q1, if you look at the Jewell underground cost in Q1 of $129, we're well ahead of the guidance based on the actions that we took, starting in Q4 last year and quite frankly, continuing into Q1. The coal action plan, as I mentioned, continues to make good progress. And I would say the clearest indicator of the progress that we're making in coal mining is our volumes year-over-year are essentially flat, but we're doing that with 4 fewer mines and with a staff reduction of about 20%. So I think the numbers, on any level, speak for themselves. Obviously, more work to be done as we move forward, but we're very encouraged by the early progress that we've made. And then finally, in addition to reaffirming our full year guidance at the SXC level, despite a loss of $5 million the first quarter, we're quite comfortable with our guidance of EBITDA somewhere in the range of 0 to minus $15 million for the full year. I would point out that in Q1, we had roughly $0.7 million of severance costs. So if you were to sort of take that out of the Q1 number and annualize that, you'd probably be close to a loss of $16 million. The other thing I'd point out on this is, this was a relatively low-volume quarter for our partner, Revelation Energy. And we expect more contribution throughout the year from Revelation production in terms of our average cash cost. And then I would also say, we expect to make more accomplishments in our own Jewell underground mines in terms of our full year cost. Okay, turning to our SunCoke Energy Partners results. Again, this was a very, very strong start to the year. Our production was up at both Haverhill and Middletown. And you will see our -- it reflects in our financial results. Again, we have flagged here in Footnote 1 that the net income will be subject to this Middletown city income tax prospectively. When we look at the profitability measures down below, what we've tried to do here is provide a pro forma adjusted EBITDA, which essentially ignores this stub period through January 23. So these EBITDA numbers and distributable cash flow are essentially making the MLP effective January 1, even though it went into effect on January 24. The $26.5 million of adjusted EBITDA, I'll remind you, it compares to roughly $21.8 million in Q4 of last year, the predecessor entity. And then the distributable cash flow of $22 million in this quarter compares to $14.9 million in Q4. As a result, we end up with -- versus our minimum quarterly distribution, with a distribution coverage ratio in the quarter of 1.66. Turning to the liquidity position of the MLP. Again, what we've tried to do here is flag the starting cash balance after the MLP IPO transaction at SXCP. So if you net those first 3 numbers or 3 bars in the -- on the left-hand side of the chart, we started with $118 million in cash, basically after all the dust settled. And then we ended the quarter with $106.2 million in cash. So we're down roughly $12 million. So you'd ask, well, how come we're down in cash in spite of very strong operating result? First, you will recall that the parent SXC retained the accounts receivable, so there's a build of accounts receivable. In addition, the sales discounts that were paid out early, the accrued sales discounts resulted in a net outflow of $11.8 million. And then we actually had more cash at our operating units, which we distributed out to the respective shareholders, so 65% to SXCP, 35% back to SXC. So you'll see there's a distribution of cash to SunCoke SXC of $11.8 million. So it's roughly between the discounts and the cash to SunCoke is roughly $24 million of cash leaving SXC. In addition, we completed some of the environmental remediation in the quarter and had ongoing CapEx of $1.2 million. So we end up with $106 million in cash, $62.5 million is really earmarked for completion of the environmental remediation. And you could consider the $43.7 million effectively excess cash. We ended up with a little more cash at the MLP than we intended based on our calculation of the accounts receivable unwind. But really, that positions the MLP well to grow by acquisition, which is what we intend to do. Turning to Chart 14, which is our SXCP updated 2013 outlook. You will recall in the prospectus that we called for a 1.15 coverage ratio. In our Q4 earnings release, we updated that it reflects a lower debt issuance cost at the MLP to 1.16. And as we sit here today with Q1 behind us, our view is the 1.16 coverage ratio for the full year, which is driven off an $88.3 million of EBITDA, is really the low end of our outlook for the year. And we expect the high end could have us at $93 million of EBITDA or roughly $66.1 million of distributable cash flow, which would really put us at the high end of the range at a 1.25 coverage ratio. So on Chart 15, as Fritz outlined earlier, we have declared our first quarter cash distribution. Again, this is prorated for the fact that the MLP IPO closed on January 24. And then given the confidence in the outlook that we have just taken you through, we expect to increase our quarterly cash distribution by approximately 2.5% for the next quarter and anticipate an overall increase of 7% for the Q4 2013 distribution, which will be paid in early '14. So as we turn to our 2013 outlook and priorities -- I'm now on Chart 17. Again, we've laid out for you our full year guidance. And we've tried to flag on the chart the only thing that changed from the guidance that we provided you in our Q4 earnings release. And as a result of the tax items in Q1, our expectation is that our full year effective tax rate will be 14% to 20%. We have -- we are reaffirming our EPS, and so I think the logical deduction is that we're more comfortable with our adjusted EBITDA outlook for the year. And as such, we will be -- we are reaffirming that our EPS of $0.30 to $0.55 for the full year. And with that, I'll turn it back to Fritz to wrap up the call.