Jeffrey W. Shaw
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thank you. Beginning with Slide 23, I'd like to address customer growth. You can see on this table that we've had first-time meter sets, new meter sets, in each of the last 3 years, increasing gradually. And in fact, between 2012 and 2013, a reasonably nice-sized bump. We also can see on meter turn-on/turn-offs, a number of 4,000 net customers that occurred for the 12 months ended June 30, 2012 and 2013. The 24,000 net new customers, when you add the 2 for the 12 months ended June 2013, that 24,000 net new customer additions would equal about where we were at somewhere in the 2007 timeframe. So we've made gradual improvement back. We're certainly not at the levels we used to see in this company historically, but it is certainly directionally positive. Right now, our total excess inactive meters at June 30, we estimate to be approximately 29,000. And we expect a growth rate on a going-forward basis to hover around 1%, maybe slightly above. Looking at some of the drivers behind this customer growth, you can see on Slide 24, by jurisdiction, the unemployment rate for the 12 -- as of June 2012 and June 2013. And you can see improvement in every jurisdiction. Notably, in Southern Nevada, it's reasonably significant to drop from 12.1% to 10.1%. That being said, 10.1% is still well above the national average. But we're -- directionally, we're starting to see some positive things, and there is some construction occurring in the Southern Nevada area. Unemployment growth -- or excuse me, employment growth. You can see that in Southern Nevada, that is uptick from 1% to 2.2%. You can see in Central Arizona, they've remained relatively flat at 8% -- rather 2.6%, 2.7% rate. And that is driving the customer growth. We want to -- those are significant metrics that we keep an eye on because they are indicative of what type of customer growth we may foresee. And we have heard others indicate that Tucson will likely follow Phoenix, but not immediately, it will be a delayed reaction. So we're keeping an eye on these employment numbers to see what might happen. Clearly, as we see those improve, we expect our customer numbers to also improve. On Slide 25, I'll touch upon capital expenditures. You'll see that in 2011 to 2012, we had $306 million, $309 million, respectively. We bumped that for 2013 to an estimated $320 million to $340 million. That is somewhat dependent upon how much of the infrastructure tracking mechanism-related CapEx that we're able to do. We expect, from 2013 to 2015, we will spend somewhere around $1 billion in capital expenditures. On Slide 26. Liquidity standpoint. We have a $300 million credit -- revolving credit facility which was refinanced in March of 2012 with an expiration date of March 2017. We have, historically, and we will continue to classify $150 million of this facility as long-term debt in the balance sheet, with the remaining $150 million as working capital. We have a $50 million commercial paper program that's supported by the company's current revolving credit facility. As of June 30, 2013, $119 million was outstanding in the long-term portion facility, including $50 million under the commercial paper program, which reflects first half -- which reflects the first half of 2,000 impacts of: A, refunds to customer resulting in a decline in the PGA balance by $64 million, something John referred to just a few moments ago; and B, extinguishment of $45 million in Clark County industrial development revenue bonds. We believe that the facility is adequately sized and there is currently remaining unused capacity of $181 million under the facility. Slide 27. I'll talk a little bit about our credit ratings. As a result of our continued improvement in our financial metrics, Southwest received credit-rating upgrades in the year 2013. In March of 2013, Standard & Poor's upgraded the company's credit rating to A- from BBB+ and retained Southwest's outlook as stable. And in May of 2013, Fitch upgraded the company's credit rating to A from A-, and revised Southwest outlook to stable. We're pleased with that and hopeful that we may even see some continual improvement in the ratings, especially with respect to Moody's. But we will continue to work with them and see what we can do. Slide 28. [indiscernible] dividend. The Board continually reviews dividend policy. As you know, historically, in February of each year, the Board have -- within the -- during the last 7 years, the company -- or the company's Board has increased the dividend in each of those years. And we expect that the Board will continue to review dividend policy going forward. Dividends are -- we consider both the adequacy and the sustainability of earnings and cash flows, the strength of the company's capital structure, the sustainability of the dividend through all business cycles and whether the dividend payout is within the normal range in the industry. And we recognize that our payout currently is low compared to the average of the industry. As I mentioned in February 2013, the Board raised the annual dividend by $0.14 from $1.18 per share to $1.32 per share on an annualized basis. It was an increase of about 11.9%. This is, again, the seventh consecutive annual increase in the dividend since 2007, with an annual dividend per share growth rate of approximately 7.96% over the last 5 years. Over time, again, the Board will continue to review dividend policy. It is the intent of the company and the Board to move the dividend payout to something that looks more like the average for the industry. More to come on that. Slide 29. With respect to expectations going forward, let me first touch upon Construction Services. 2013 revenues are expected to approximate 2012 level. We expect profitability in 2013 to probably approximate something you might have seen in 2011, however. 2013 construction expenses, we expect to continue at the current level as a percentage of revenues. The total expected loss on the large fixed-price contract was recorded in 2012. We don't expect something similar in 2013. Gains on equipment sales in the second half of 2013 should approximate the first half of 2013. And the depreciation trend line, we expect to continue. Slide 30. With respect to the Natural Gas segment, operating margin expected to be favorably influenced by Nevada rate relief and continued customer growth. It's nice to see that customer growth return, even though, albeit at lower levels than maybe what we historically had seen. Increases in operating costs, excluding the $5 million related to pension expenses, are expected to approximate somewhere between 3% and 4% for the full year. Our company-owned life insurance related returns for the 12 months ended June 30, 2013, again, significantly exceeded expected returns. And that's not expected to be sustainable at that level for the mid- to long-term. And then finally, due to debt financing refinancings and redemptions of approximately $5 million, we saw a favorable impact to the income statement between 2013 and 2012. Now before I turn it back over to Ken, let me just make -- mention of the fact we do have an appendix in this deck of slides. The Appendix will touch upon additional business segment information; service territories with customer and margin breakdowns; economic data by state; some historical capital structure information; a graph of stock performance historically; comparative total returns for 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year periods; authorized rate base and rates of return by regulatory jurisdiction; and recent returns on equity, both on a consolidated and Gas segment basis. And we've concluded that, that you may have an opportunity to refer to that at your leisure. And certainly, we would encourage any questions either today or at some future date as you have a chance to review that information. With that then, I will turn the time back to Ken.