Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Q2 2016 Stanley Black & Decker, Incorporated Earnings Conference Call. My name is Nicole and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations and Government Relations, Greg Waybright. Mr. Waybright, you may begin. Greg Waybright - Vice President-Investor & Government Relations: Thank you, Nicole. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for Stanley Black & Decker's second quarter 2016 conference call. On the call, in addition to myself, John Lundgren, our Chairman and CEO; Jim Loree, our President and COO; and Don Allan, our Senior Vice President and CFO. Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning, and a supplemental presentation, which we will refer to during the call, are available on the IR section of our website as well as on our iPhone and iPad apps. A replay of this morning's call will also be available beginning at 2 p.m. today. The replay number and the access code are in our press release. This morning John, Jim, and Don will review our second quarter 2016 results and various other matters, followed by a Q&A session. And consistent with prior calls, we are going to be sticking with just one question per caller. As we normally do, we will be making some forward-looking statements during the call. Such statements are based on assumptions of future events that may not prove to be accurate, and as such, they involve risk and uncertainty. It's therefore possible that actual results may materially differ from any forward-looking statements that we might make today. We direct you to the cautionary statements in the 8-K that we filed with our press release and in our most recent 1934 Act filing. I'll now turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, John Lundgren. John? John F. Lundgren - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Greg. Before we get started, it's with both a sense of accomplishment and admittedly some sadness that we're announcing my retirement today as the CEO of Stanley Black & Decker, effective July 31, 2016. I say there is some sadness simply because of how much I've enjoyed leading the company and our world-class management team and employees, since the first quarter of 2004. But, I am pleased to announce that Jim Loree will be succeeding me as Stanley's Chief Executive Officer, and I am extremely confident in the prospects for this organization with Jim at the helm. For those of you who followed our company over the last several years, this transition will not come as a surprise. I, in conjunction with our board of directors, have always viewed the leadership succession plan to be a top priority to ensure consistency and stability throughout the organization, as well as to ensure that we continue to deliver the exceptional shareholder value that our investors have come to expect from this company. And, to that end, Jim is uniquely positioned to deliver on each of those things, given his tenure with the company and his role in leading the transformation that we've executed over the last decade or so. Furthermore, it's important to note that we have as deep and talented a management team today as we've had at any point during my 12 year tenure with the company. There are strong, competent leaders in place across our various businesses and we're not anticipating any major changes to the strategy or to the team as a result of this announcement. I'll be staying on as Chairman of the board through the end of the year, and I'll continue as a special advisor to the company through the end of April next year in order to ensure an orderly transition, and of course, to assist the board, Jim, and the rest of the management team in any way that I can. I'm proud of everything the company has accomplished over the last 12-plus-years, including compounded annual sales growth of 12%, and a total shareholder return of over 300%. And while I've enjoyed my time here immensely, I'm looking forward to the next phase of my career, which will include, among other things, serving on a number of boards as well as continuing my efforts to impact policy in Washington and around the world, to create an environment where manufacturing companies like ours can continue to succeed and to prosper. I'll turn 65 in September. And rather than thinking of this as going out at the top, I think of it more as a long distance relay race where we've built a good lead and I'm passing the baton to a colleague and a management team who are well positioned and fully capable of increasing that lead. And I'm confident that after you listen to this morning's call, you'll share in my belief that our best days still lie ahead of us. So, let's dive into the quarter and our outlook for the remainder of 2016. Here's some of the highlights during the second quarter. Organic growth was 4%, total growth was 2%. We had robust organic growth in our Tools & Storage business, 8%, that continues an incredible trend with Europe leading the way at 14% growth during the quarter. Security was up 1%, as Europe organic growth – the trend there continues, Europe was up 3% for the quarter. Industrial was off 6% mainly due to single customer volume pressure in the electronics segment of our Engineered Fastening business, and the well expected lower Infrastructure volumes, as Oil & Gas and Hydraulics remained challenged by the weak energy and scrap steel markets, respectively. Our operating margin rate of 15.8% was up 140 basis points versus same quarter a year ago. That is a post-merger record despite significant foreign currency pressure. That was led by Tools & Storage performance which was up 240 basis points to 18.8%. And Security posted a strong sequential increase to 12.6%, while Industrial declined marginally, but to a very respectable rate of 17%. Second quarter diluted earnings per share of $1.84 was up 19% versus prior year, on strong operational performance along with a lower share count. Our DEWALT FLEXVOLT battery system was unveiled in June, delivering the power of corded and freedom of cordless to professional and consumer end users worldwide. Some of you have seen the products perform and you'll have your own well-informed views. I've participated in several of the major introductions, and the words "game-changing" have been a common reaction from our customers. The product will hit the shelves in October this year, and Jim will provide you some more detail on our vision to create the cordless jobsite. Given these results, we're raising our 2016 guidance to a range of $6.30 to $6.50; that's up 6% to 10% versus 2015, and from our prior guidance of $6.20 to $6.40 and, concurrently, we're reiterating our free cash flow conversion of approximately 100%. Let's look quickly at the sources of growth. Both volume and price contributed to our growth, which was broad-based on a regional basis. During the second quarter, volume was up 3%, we got a positive 1% from price, for 4% organic growth, currency was a 2 percentage point offset for a revenue growth of 2%. All regions contributed positively to the total performance across the company. You see the U.S. up 3%, Europe up 10%, emerging markets flat, rest of the world up 4%, for again, total organic growth of 4% for the quarter and 4% for the first half of the year. Don will show you later that baked into our guidance is an increase in organic growth for the year from a range of 3% to 4%, to an estimate of 4%. There were lots of puts and calls within the emerging market group, volatile markets as you know, but our Latin American group was up 9%, with Mexico up 11% and Argentina up 46%, albeit from a low base. The emerging markets were down in the low-teens, Tools and Security growth was offset by Industrial softness in the Engineered Fastening consumer electronics business. But, all in all, really strong growth in the quarter. Let me turn it over to Jim, who's got an update on our game-changing DEWALT FLEXVOLT program as well as some of the details on the segment. James M. Loree - President & Chief Operating Officer: Thank you, John. Before that I just want to thank John for being a trusted colleague and a mentor, and a friend, and also for all that John has done for this company and our stakeholders over the years. He and I have enjoyed an outstanding business partnership for over 12 years, teaming up to lead the company through a transformation from a small cap building products company to a large cap diversified industrial. It is no coincidence that John's arrival in 2004 marked the beginning of a growth renaissance period for Stanley. And I'm honored to be named as our next CEO, succeeding John, with a mission to lead us through the next stage of our journey. The company has never been stronger, with all its well-established global franchises, agile and deep leadership bench, and strong and evolving SFS2.0 operating system. Importantly, I want to highlight our world-class management team. This high-performing team to a person is totally dedicated to the success of this company. They have supported me all the way, through both their words and their actions, and have thus enabled us to effect a smooth leadership transition. The impressive results you've seen quarter-after-quarter from this company are a direct result of this team's experience, commitment, and passion for winning. What better way to highlight the immense opportunities present in this next stage of our evolution than to introduce you to the first output from breakthrough innovation, our SFS2.0 initiative. The patent-protected DEWALT FLEXVOLT system is the most exciting innovation in the power tool industry since Black & Decker unveiled the first cordless tool in the 1960s. It has the potential to revolutionize the jobsite. It allows users to switch from 20 volt to 60 volt to the never before seen 120 volts of cordless power, using the same battery pack regardless of the voltage rating. These battery packs are completely backwards compatible with our existing line of DEWALT 20 Volt tools, and when used in these products, the FLEXVOLT battery combines with our market-leading brushless motors to provide significant runtime and performance advantages. FLEXVOLT will ultimately enable professional users to completely eliminate the cord on the jobsite, achieving the freedom of cordless while maintaining all the power and flexibility of corded tools. And at the same time, none of our existing user base is left behind, as the FLEXVOLT battery packs used on their new 60 volt and 120 volt cordless tools will also enhance the performance of their existing 20 volt products. FLEXVOLT is being commercialized as part of our SFS2.0 commercial excellence initiative with the most global, most digitally-enabled, and most comprehensive marketing campaign in our history. We have already demonstrated the technology in person to over 700 customers around the globe, including major retailers, distributors, and other channel partners. We have also introduced and demonstrated the products to the tool subject matter expert blogger community and have created an enormous social media buzz in anticipation of the product's release to the market in October. We have coordinated our digital marketing campaign with our sports marketing assets and we will be conducting a massive end user demonstration effort as the summer proceeds. This type of breakthrough innovation, coupled with commercial excellence, will provide significant organic growth runway, even as we comp up against several years of top quartile organic growth among peers. In the near-term, we will focus on delivering the end user's long held dream of the cordless jobsite, and over the intermediate to longer-term, we will be moving up the power curve, exploiting the rapidly advancing technology of electrification and opening up new markets and growth opportunities. This tremendous accomplishment within our Tools & Storage business is the first example of the output we expect to deliver from SFS2.0, our enhanced operating system. We are currently taking the same approach to breakthrough innovation in several other businesses across the company, so stay tuned. I encourage all investors to take a deep dive into both FLEXVOLT and SFS2.0, as they are essential to understanding what this company will deliver in the form of continued organic growth and margin expansion. Our Investor Relations team is ready to assist those that are interested in that regard. Now moving on to 2Q. I'll begin with the Tools & Storage business, which continued its forward momentum delivering another high-single-digit organic growth performance coming in at 8% and equally as impressively improving profitability by 240 basis points for a segment profit rate of 18.8%. Total Tools revenue growth was 5% after absorbing a 3 point currency headwind. Organic growth across all regions and SBUs was once again positive. Europe led the way, up 14%; followed by North America, up 7%; and emerging markets up 4%. The gains in Europe are particularly impressive, given the flat to very low-single-digit growth environment in those markets and they highlight our ability to continue gaining share on the strength of our pervasive commercial excellence activities, and new product development initiatives such as our DC brushless motor products, which exemplify the importance of our very strong core or normal course of business innovation. This all important core innovation activity has been a key source of organic growth and a hallmark of our culture for quite some time. Core innovation provides a solid base for above market growth, thus enabling SFS2.0 breakthrough innovations to turbocharge an already strong base. Moving to global SBU results, Power Tools delivered another double-digit quarter, up 10% with consistent strength across Professional and Consumer Tools and Tools & Storage posted 2% growth as construction hand tools were up in high-single-digits, driven by our new line of DEWALT and FatMax measuring lasers offsetting pressure in Proto industrial hand tools. Taking a regional look at the segment, in North America, momentum was good across all major retailers, with high-single-digit performance from the group. POS data remained very strong and in the mid-teens for the quarter. Ending retailer inventories were in line with or below historical norms. And turning to Europe, which posted extraordinary 14% organic growth on the heels of two years of 7% compounded growth, the outperformance was widespread. Every major underlying market grew organically, with most up double-digits including a noteworthy performance by the U.K. team, which delivered the highest growth in the region. France also showed unusually strong growth, driven by share gains in Professional Power Tools. And finally, emerging markets were up 4% organically, with Latin America and Asia leading the way, both up in high-single-digits, more than offsetting continued issues in Middle East and North America which was down. Latin America continued to overcome a generally distressed market environment. Within Latin America, Argentina and Mexico turned in strong country performances with growth in our Tradesman segment and continued penetration of our recently introduced Stanley MPP cordless Power Tools. E-commerce and pricing excellence initiatives also contributed to drive growth in the region. Asia also delivered a notable performance with good organic growth in China, South Korea, and Indonesia. And as I noted earlier, we continue to see pressure within Middle East, North America, however efforts are underway to revitalize the businesses in those markets which continue to be challenged by severely depressed macroeconomic conditions, amidst geopolitical turmoil. So, in summary, Tools & Storage continued its strong momentum this quarter, leveraging SFS2.0 to drive outsized share gains, while preparing for the largest product launch in the company's history. Despite the challenging macro in several regions of the world, we remain highly constructive on the growth and margin prospects for Tools & Storage as we look forward. Shifting over to Security, Security delivered its second consecutive quarter of organic growth and its third consecutive quarter of year-over-year margin improvement, highlighting the solid progress this business has made. Total revenues increased 1% on 1% organic growth, while the operating margin rate improved 220 basis points year-over-year to finish at a healthy 12.6% for the quarter, its highest second quarter rate since 2013. Europe Security grew 3% organically for the third quarter in a row, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of organic growth, and strong performance in the Nordics and Central Europe drove the top line performance and offset mild pressure in the U.K. and France. Order intake was in line with expectations. The unit continues to successfully manage attrition and stabilize the RMR portfolio. Europe Security profitability continues to improve, as volume leverage productivity and cost actions all contributed to margin growth and rate improvement in the quarter. North American Security also made progress, solid organic growth in healthcare and automatic doors was offset by lower volumes in electronic security or CSS. However, CSS is driving growth in its RMR portfolio with orders and backlog in a healthy position heading into the second half of the year and attrition is in line with targets. North America also realized margin growth and rate improvement as field efficiency initiatives took hold. In total, Security improved on almost every front with order rates, backlog, and attrition at targeted rates across Europe and North America and the team is well positioned and motivated to continue driving forward progress. Moving on to Industrial, Industrial revenue was under some pressure in the quarter as weakness in Engineered Fastening combined with anticipated pressure in Infrastructure resulted in a 6% organic decline. Expense de-leveraging on lower volume, combined with negative FX, drove a corresponding profit decline although segment margin continued to be at impressive, well above company line average levels. And within Engineered Fastening, the negative growth was overwhelmingly driven by significantly lower than expected volume with one major electronics customer. The general industrial business was down modestly in line with expectations, and the automotive segment remains solid, with fastener growth continuing to outpace light vehicle production around the globe. Infrastructure was down 11% organically as a slowdown in offshore oil and gas activity, combined with continued weakness in hydraulics end markets, resulted in year-over-year declines. Encouragingly, we see sufficient project activity in our onshore business to enable positive growth for Oil & Gas in the second half of the year. So while Industrial posted an eye-opening negative organic growth number for the quarter, it was caused largely by a decline in sales to one specific electronic fastening customer, partially driven by changing end user demand and partially driven by our strategic decision to remain disciplined on price. Nonetheless, segment profitability remains strong, although the revenue impact of this situation will be felt for a few quarters until it anniversaries. So, in summary, like all multi-national businesses in today's environment of slowing global growth, an unprecedented geopolitical volatility, and an ever more rapidly increasing pace of technological change, we face ongoing challenges across our businesses in many of the markets we serve. We view these challenges as opportunities. Our continuing goal is to achieve outsized organic growth, supplement it with inorganic growth, expand margins, and do it all with a capital efficient approach. SFS2.0, with its sharp focus on breakthrough innovation, digital excellence, and commercial excellence, will continue to enable us to outperform on the organic growth front. We will soon be back on the acquisition trail, and our pipeline is full with solid opportunities to deploy capital to inorganic growth. Today's announcement of 4% organic growth, 19% earnings per share growth, a record operating margin rate of 15.8%, and $418 million of free cash flow underscores the health and earnings power of the company while highlighting the strength and agility of our management team. I look forward to leading the company in the coming months and years as we tackle the challenges and opportunities ahead and continue to drive positive momentum. And with that, I will now turn it over to Don Allan, who will provide a financial update. Donald Allan - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thank you, Jim. Let's start with free cash flow for the second quarter, which came in at $418 million for a year-over-year improvement of $171 million. As you can see, the primary drivers of the outperformance were stronger earnings of $44 million and continued improvements in working capital, which generated a positive $58 million of cash in the quarter for a meaningful $108 million of year-over-year improvement. Our working capital turns were 8.2 times at the end of Q2, which was a 1.2 times improvement versus the prior year second quarter. On a year-to-date basis, this leaves our free cash flow $256 million ahead of prior year, again with earnings growth and working capital efficiency explaining essentially all of the improvement. As John noted earlier, we are reiterating our free cash flow guidance at 100% conversion rate. This takes into account the incremental inventory build that we expect to undertake in the second half of the year related to the DEWALT FLEXVOLT system launch. Even with this modest headwind to working capital in the second half of 2016, we still plan to end the year at approximately 9.5 times for working capital turns. Moving to the next slide, I want to take a moment to address the potential impact of the U.K.'s EU referendum vote, or Brexit, on our anticipated business results in 2016 and potentially beyond. As you can see on this page, we are expecting to generate somewhere north of $500 million in pound sterling denominated revenues in the U.K., and more than $1.7 billion in euro denominated revenues across the euro region in 2016. To-date, we have not seen any meaningful reduction in demand within the U.K. and more broadly in Europe. It is likely too early to speculate on the demand side impact of Brexit in both the U.K. and the rest of Europe. What I can tell you at this point is that our plans for the second half of the year continue to contemplate roughly low- to mid-single-digit growth organically in the European region, as we expect our recent share gain momentum to be further augmented by the FLEXVOLT battery system rollout that Jim discussed in detail earlier. As you might expect, we are monitoring this situation very closely and will continue to assess the potential impact as events evolve. We will update all of you accordingly, as a more definitive picture materializes. From a currency perspective, however, we have seen some impact to our operating margin based on the FX movements following the referendum result. At current spot rates for the euro and pound sterling, we see approximately an $8 million additional currency pressure relative to the $140 million of FX headwind we disclosed in our April guidance. The uncertainty created by the U.K.'s decision, both with regards to the mechanics of their exit as well as the future of the European Union as a whole, could result in continued currency related pressure to our operating margin. I'd like to give you an example of that potential impact. If the euro were to go to parity with the U.S. dollar and the pound were to fall to $1.20, the combination of these moves would generate an incremental $12 million of operating margin pressure to earnings in 2016. This is above and beyond the current $8 million of incremental pressure measured at spot rates that I just mentioned. Of course, the longer FX rates hold at current levels, the more muted the impact any future deterioration will have on 2016 results. I believe this provides an adequate range of the potential worst case impact for 2016. On that note, let's move on to page 14, where we provide an updated view on the net FX impact to the company's operating margin across all currencies. As you can see, net FX headwinds have increased by approximately $10 million to $150 million since our April guidance was issued. This movement is primarily driven by the incremental pound and euro pressures I just mentioned as well as further devaluation of the Argentinian peso and Canadian dollar. These negatives are slightly offset by the appreciation in the Brazilian real, which is up about 7% against the dollar since our April guidance was communicated. Finally, I'd like to remind everyone of a statement I made during the April call, where I pointed out that should FX rates again deteriorate in 2016, we have actions and countermeasures at our disposal to maintain our EPS guidance. We continue to have similar plans in place, but as you would expect, the size of the actions we can effectively execute on begins to shrink as the year wears on. As a result, we now have approximately $20 million in contingency plans that can be put into place should they be necessary. One last point on currency: our hedging actions are now primarily focused on exposures in 2017 and beyond. And we will continue our practice of locking in portions of our largest exposures such as the Canadian dollar and the euro to dampen volatility throughout the year. Based on current spot rates and the existing derivative hedges in place for 2017 volumes, we estimate the carryover impact of currency to be approximately $20 million for 2017. Let's turn our attention to the next page and our updated 2016 outlook. As John noted at the beginning of the call, we are raising our EPS outlook to a range of $6.30 to $6.50 from the April guidance range of $6.20 to $6.40. The revised range represents a 6% to 10% year-over-year increase in EPS. At the same time, we are reiterating our free cash flow conversion at approximately 100% of net income. As you can see on the left side of the page, this 10% increase across the range is being driven by an increased organic growth estimate for the full year, moving to 4% from approximately 3% to 4%, which generates $0.07 of additional EPS. In addition, we believe $0.10 of our incremental productivity and cost actions will stick for the full year. Embedded in this amount is modest incremental growth costs related to SFS2.0 initiatives. Specifically, these costs will fund key incremental commercial excellence, and breakthrough innovation activities to help drive above-market growth beyond 2016. These two positive improvements to guidance are partially offset by $0.07 of increased FX headwind and one-time new CEO costs. Finally, note that we are providing some color on EPS for 3Q, with approximately 25% of the full year EPS expected to be delivered in the third quarter. Moving to the right-hand side of the page, you get a better sense of the drivers behind the organic growth increase, as Tools & Storage is now projected to grow high-single-digits for the year on the great momentum we have seen in the first half combined with the impact of the pending FLEXVOLT launch. However, some of these gains are being partially offset by our Industrial segment as we continue to see pressure in the general industrial and electronics businesses, which is now projected to produce low-single-digit declines in 2016. The organic growth guidance for the Security segment remains unchanged, with low-single-digit growth expected for the full year. Finally, we expect the Tools & Storage and Security segments to deliver positive year-over-year improvements to their respective operating margin rates. The Industrial segment's operating margin rate will be lower in 2016 versus 2015, as the impact from lower volume and FX pressure more than offsets the productivity gains and cost actions being taken by the Engineered Fastening and Infrastructure business teams. In summary, the second quarter was another solid performance for the company as a whole. Despite some additional pressures in our Industrial segment, Tools & Storage delivered an outstanding quarter. And the Security businesses continue to make solid progress and take additional positive steps forward. Organic growth for the quarter finished up 4%, and earnings per share were up 19% versus prior year, coming in at $1.84, excellent operating leverage. On the back of this outperformance, we are raising EPS guidance to the range of $6.30 to $6.50, as we expect the improved organic growth outlook and incremental productivity to more than offset certain pressures. In June, we introduced the world to DEWALT FLEXVOLT system, which we expect to revolutionize the construction jobsite, delivering the power of corded with the freedom of cordless to millions of professionals around the world. And finally, we announced the retirement of John as CEO. His tenure has been an era that is characterized by transformational growth and exceptional shareholder returns. Among John's many accomplishments as CEO is the impact he had on building our high integrity, agile winning business culture across our entire executive leadership team and, as a result, we are well positioned to deliver outsized growth and margin expansion going forward. And we have a highly energized organization motivated toward achieving these goals. On a personal note, I have appreciated John's mentorship and thank him for the support over the past decade. That concludes the presentation portion of the call. Let's move to Q&A. Greg Waybright - Vice President-Investor & Government Relations: Great. Thanks, Don. Nicole, we can now open the call to Q&A, please. Thank you.