Mariano Biglia
Analyst · HSBC. Hello good morning, good afternoon. Carlos
Thank you, Paco. As anticipated in our prior call, we reported a lower ROE this quarter of 5% in real terms as we transition our asset base from a large share of government securities to growing private sector loans, although still at historic low leverage levels. This was mainly driven by a 29% sequential drop in net financial income, reflecting the decline in inflation and the yield on government securities at loans, partially offset by a lower cost of funding amidst the lower interest rate environment. As we transition from government securities to private sector loans, margins are reduced in this first stage and are expected to increase as we complete the transition and also grow in higher-margin loans. Operating expenses increased 2% quarter-on-quarter, impacted by severance charges reported in the quarter. Note that included these one-time charges, operating expenses would have declined nearly 5% sequential. By contrast, ROE benefited from a 25% increase in net fee income, driven by good performances across all businesses, particularly in brokerage and asset management fees, as we increased assets under management and active customers at invertironline. A 22% contraction in loan loss provisions, reflecting healthy growth, also contributed to profitability. This was complemented by a 35% decline in other net losses attributable to lower turnover tax and provisions for strategic initiatives, together with a 31% drop in inflation adjustment, benefiting from lower inflation in the quarter. Turning to Slide 6. We continue to shift our asset base towards a larger mix of private sector loans, reaching 39% of total assets from 36% in the second quarter, as shown in the bar chart. By contrast, investment in government securities and Central Bank repos declined 17 percentage points sequentially to 23% of total assets. Loan growth was driven primarily by a 44% increase in retail loans, reflecting our ability to capture rising credit demand across Argentina's improving economic landscape. Car loans remain the stand out performer within retail. Moving on to Slide 7. Total deposits grew 17% sequentially, supported by a 90% increase in US dollar denominated deposits in original currency. Growth was largely driven by the recent tax amnesty program, which has driven significant inflows of funds into the financial system. As a result, US deposit share of total deposits increased by 12 percentage points to 28%. This positive trend continued into October, with US deposits up 12%. Peso deposits, in turn remains stable. Lastly, the loan-to-deposit ratio stood at 58%. Turning to Slide 8. As anticipated, decline in inflation has reduced the impact of inflation-linked instruments in our portfolio. Peso yields also came down, driven by a lower interest rate environment and the Central Bank's policy adjustment. This reflects a broader normalization of monetary policy, which has reduced the unusually high spreads seen in prior quarters. These headwinds were partially offset by a decline in our funding costs, in tandem with policy rate adjustments. As a result, net financial income declined 29% sequentially to ARS161 billion. Looking ahead, growth in higher NIM lending products, together with an increased leverage, are expected to positively contribute to improved net financial income. Turning to Slide 9. CET1 ratio declined 210 basis points sequentially to slightly over 19% at quarter end. This reflects sequentially higher risk-weighted assets due to the continued acceleration of sector loan growth, along with higher deductions on deferred taxes. Capitalization levels provides ample flexibility to continue expanding our loan portfolio while maintaining a prudent approach to risk management. On Slide 10, we discuss Argentina's evolving macroeconomic landscape. A key highlight this quarter was the successful tax amnesty program, which brought in over $20 billion in deposits. Importantly, inflation has eased more rapidly than expected, with 2024 projections now revised to show improvement to an annual rate of 120%, down from 127% in June. The regulation initiatives and fiscal discipline, achieving a surplus of 0.5% as of October, are driving a gradual economic reoperation. Throughout the year, we have seen significant improvement across many of the key macro drivers. However, some challenges remain, the most important being growth in the Central Bank's net reserves, which remain negative. Additionally, maintaining public support is crucial as reforms continue to be rolled out and economic activity and employment recovers. To further support this recovery, a key milestone will be the lifting of FX restrictions. In conclusion, we are encouraged by the improving macroeconomic indicators and the progress made towards a more sustainable, open and competitive economic environment in Argentina. More specifically, the financial sector is in the early stages of recovery, with loan growth inflecting positively. With respect to Grupo Supervielle, we have a solid foundation in place and are well positioned to benefit as demand continues to recover. To wrap up, let's look ahead at our perspectives for the remainder of 2024 on Slide 11. Based on fourth quarter performance to date, we maintain our ROE guidance of 15% for the full year. As inflation continues to ease, we now expect peso loans for 2024 to expand between 70% to 80% in real terms, up from prior expectations of 40%, with retail loans increasing share of total loans. The NPL ratio is expected to remain below 1% this year and to start converting in 2025 to levels aligned with higher credit demand, up from the current historical lows. In turn, net cost of risk is anticipated to remain at nine months '24 levels for the full year. Note that following the anticipated NIM contraction experienced in 3Q, we expect for the fourth quarter to stabilize at 3Q levels. In terms of fee income, we expect repricing of the bulk of bank fees to individuals to lag inflation and thus to grow below inflation levels. By contrast, brokerage and asset management fees are anticipated to grow significantly above inflation as monthly active users and assets under management increase. Lastly, as credit demand continues to recover, we now anticipate closing the year with a CET1 ratio between 16% to 18%, compared to our previous expectations of 17% to 20%. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect inflation levels to continue receding to around 30%, which together with growth in economic activity, employment and salaries in real terms, will create additional opportunities for growth. In this environment, Supervielle remains committed to leveraging its diverse product portfolio, solid capital base and customer-first approach to deliver long-term value. This ends our prepared remarks. We are ready to open the floor for questions. Ana, please go ahead.