Barry Sternlicht
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you, Rina and Zach, and good morning, everyone. Just some quick filling comments, I guess, since chat wrote the bones of Jeff's comments, we can use his agent, and he doesn't have to talk anymore. We could just have this agent speak for himself. But moving back to and filling in some comments, I think it was an interesting quarter. Obviously, only half our book today is still large loan lending. It's about half of our assets, about $15.5 billion on almost $30 billion of assets. I think we created a near-term trough for ourselves with the fundamental acquisition. It was a strategic move. And while it was dilutive of at least $0.04 in the quarter, you have -- it is very leveraged to its overhead. We bought an entire business, including the management team. And as you scale the book, the results of the accretion of the book becomes rather dramatic. And 2 things we see. One, our cost of financing has dropped, as Jeff mentioned in his final comments, at 145 over. That's materially better than we underwrote when we bought the business. And two, the opportunities that we didn't realize that they had been out of the market for as long as they were during the sale process. So we didn't produce enough net lease in the quarter. But by stretching the duration of the book, the 17 years average lease and the inherent bumps in the rent, which average between 2% and 3%, we've actually stretched the duration of our book. And now we have a business inside of us that -- and if you look at triple net lease REITs in the marketplace, they're trading between, well, as low as 2%, but normally on 5%, 6%, 6% dividend yields. So you have a business that's worth inherently more in us with the parent paying close to 10.5% at the moment. So we will grow this rapidly, and we'll have to spin it off and realize the value of the extraordinary business we bought. It will get better and better over time. But near term, we are definitely suffering from dilution and probably didn't communicate that well enough to the analyst community though we remain very optimistic about the pipeline and the future growth. I'm going to step back for a second and talk about the whole company and then the economy. Starting with the economy. I mean the economy is a bit bifurcated, as you know, with the low end of the market not doing very well and the luxury market doing extremely well. But one thing as it affects real estate is you'll see, we see tremendous volume in transactions in Europe. And as the rate complex comes down, as the short end comes down, and we all know it will come down, certainly by May of '23 (sic) [ May of '26 ] when Powell is replaced, but likely before then, and it's only a question of the pacing between now and then. Transaction volumes in the United States should pick up dramatically, too. And what you're seeing is a lot of people thought rates would be lower. They're not through the woods yet. Rents haven't yet responded in the growth phase in most asset classes in real estate. But I think if you're looking backwards, you're looking the wrong way. I mean what we saw was a 500 basis point nearly vertical increase in rates happened very suddenly. Companies' assets, portfolios had to adjust to that. Their caps burned off over time. But in front of you, you have a declining interest rate curve. And more importantly, you have a very -- at least in the United States, a very meaningful drop in supply. So fundamentals should improve unless we get something of a serious recession, which isn't likely to happen in many quarters of the country because net worth are up and people are doing okay. Energy prices are calm. Inflation, while higher than people would like is probably onetime with the tariffs. It will bleed through in the fourth quarter and the first quarter, but the labor market should continue to weaken. And I think that sets up for a pretty benign period for real estate and pretty sound fundamentals coming out in '26 and as we emerge from this still increase in supply in the multifamily, the market rate multifamily. One of the other interesting things when you look at our company and you talk about the dilution, which is, we hope, temporary from fundamental is we're sitting on a $1.5 billion gain in our affordable book. And there, we mentioned last quarter, but not this quarter, rents in the portfolio will rise 6.7% we know already. That's the carryover from '25 to '26. There'll be an additional increase most likely in April of next year. That might put the increase to closer to 8% or even higher of 10%. We'll only probably be able to take a carryover to the following year. So that inherent growth in our book, that gain is available if we wanted it ever to cover the dividend. But we choose to enjoy the fruits of that portfolio. And Jeff mentioned, we did a $300 million cash out refi on just 30% of the book this quarter. And I will say that, that is one of the most important things about this year for the -- for our company is the complete fortress balance sheet that we've been building at ever lower spreads to SOFR and stretching duration and moving to less secured debt and repaying repos. It's a fundamental change in the balance sheet, which is probably for sure, the best in the industry. We'll continue to do that and continue to diversify and continue to strengthen our balance sheet in an effort to continue to bring down our costs which will allow us, in the case of fundamental, we can do a deal at a 7%, 7.25% and instead of a 7.75% because our cost of funds has dropped dramatically and is a competitive advantage for the franchise. So I think -- I don't really have much more I want to say. I think that we're very productive. The firm is producing lots of new paper across all its platforms. The business is particularly residential business now with lower rates, perhaps we can recapture some of that capital that's there. Also, we look to resolve our REO and nonaccrual assets. And we can see the future in our book as the capital is laid out. We know we can grow our earnings and get back to a place that we want to be, which is earning well north of our dividend. So from regular way business, we can always get there if we want. So thanks. And with that, we'll take questions.