Barry Stuart Sternlicht
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Thank you, Zach, Rina and Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone, or good morning. Happy August, and thanks for listening in. Well, it seems that the world changes a lot quarter-to-quarter. And the world has certainly changed this quarter. The jobs report was quite a shock, particularly the restatement of prior job gains and seem slightly lag that the sale will cut rates in September. And I think at this point, we most of us would agree that rates are coming down, just a question of our speed. And by May of '26, I think the short end would be at least 100 basis points lower than it is today and probably more. The other thing that we know for sure is that the real estate complex is gaining in strength and being healthy as we see the end of the avalanche of new supply created for a different interest rate environment, particularly affecting the multifamily and industrial sectors. While construction remains strong and is tremendous job gains in construction, it really is from data centers and also from the infrastructure bill, and the CHIPS Act and other programs and that will accelerate with the repatriation reshoring of plants and equipment in factories in the United States, some things like the pharmaceutical industry, which will probably have to vacate Ireland and move our plants back to the United States to satisfy the administration. With both lower rates and the firming of the real estate complex, I think you'll see a significant pickup in transaction volumes for the real estate markets in the United States. You already are seeing that in Europe. Europe has -- had rates drop from 42, likely hitting 1.75. And so there's a lot of activity in Europe. We have our busiest years ever in Europe as a private equity firm in real estate. While transaction bias in the states are subdued and people are holding on to their best assets, hoping that they can sell to a more favorable climate supported by these lower interest rates that we all know are now coming. The other fact you've seen is the repair of the credit markets, as you've seen with our own comments from Jeff's comments, there's a lot of liquidity in the markets and everyone is raising to refinance it spreads that actually are the best we've ever seen for our company. And that is probably the case because of Europe, China, I mean seeing no interest rates, so though our rates are high. They're still attractive for global credit investors, and you can't ignore the United States. Obviously, we have plenty of supply to satisfy demand, but I think most of us would have gotten wrong where the 10 years as I speak, given the situation with the 1 Beautiful Bill, and we'll see if the economy does accelerate enough to cover the cost of the program. The other interesting development, I'd say, on a macro level is energy deflation that the world has sort of digested the disruptions in the Middle East and now between OPEC's position of continuing to produce oil and the government's desire to remove restrictions on development, the energy deflation dividend should support customers and continue favoring the growth in the United States. Which is lastly the most evident change of all is the continued massive investment behind the data centers and AI, which in the aggregate is equivalent of levered probably the $1 trillion that the federal government is spending, and that is new and dramatically concentrating in the United States being our economy versus others in the world. Now shifting to our company, I'd say we're in a very good shape. As Jeff and Rina pointed out, I think we built a fortress balance sheet best in the sector. We've moved as aggressively as we can to use unsecured corporate debt, take out repos and other debt we have, and we are agile in that. We've done -- Jeff and the team have done amazing work on our balance sheet. And I want to talk a little bit about fundamental income, which we just bought a $2 billion business. I think from the start, as you know, we endeavor to create a finance company, not just a mortgage REIT, and we have multiple cylinders. And that strategy has while complicated is going the fruit of us being the only mortgage in the country that trades above its IPO price. And I think many shareholders forget that we spun off our residential single-family rental business, which is equipment almost $5 a share. In addition, pay well our diversification has been able to enabled us to keep our dividend intact in a very tough time. And now we've paid this dividend, I think, for 14 years or something like that. And I hope it's fundamental, we can actually begin to grow earnings materially over time. And potentially work to increase that or get the benefit of what's a much more secure income stream and a lower dividend yield for our company, which, of course, would we think we deserve fundamental as a business benefits from scale. And the bigger we are likely more accretive businesses to us. We have a proven team. We picked on a team of 28 people that have been involved with store and spirit and grew those companies to their ultimate sale. Shareholders made a lot of money. It's not lost on us that stand-alone net lease companies trade dividend yields 450 to 400 basis points inside our own. So we think this is -- we'll be able to highlight the value that this new division has inside our company. And while I think it's modestly dilutive this year to the company because we're only picking it up for a short period of time, the faster we grow the company, the more accretive it will be, given the overhead gets scaled and it's something like 12% of our revenues today, but at scale, it's more like 5%. And the team is positioned to do that incentive position incentive to position to do that, and we'll figure out ways to continue to grow that business and make it a more material portion of our company. A couple of other points I'd make. It's interesting to me is here that our infrastructure business we bought 10 years ago from General Electric. Our Starwood Infrastructure lending business have no longer has a single heritage loan in its portfolio, the portfolio has been completed recycled and continues to earn mid-double-digit yield on equity. The other point I'd like to highlight again is our affordable book, which is really unusual and enjoyed our, I think, close to a 7% rent growth this year and has embedded rent growth next year of 6.7%. And that doesn't take into account the opportunity to move these rents to market as these assets begin to come off their 15-year restrictions. I also want to point out SMC, our conduit business because it's the gift that keeps on giving the team does a superb job for in this business. I think we've had the business for 48 quarters and only had 1 mildly negative. I think you lost $0.01 in 1 quarter. So we've been profitable of 47 to 48 quarters. And that's just a great business led by a great team. Doing a superb job for us. One more point about fundamental is that fundamental will provide a real estate depreciation expense or a tax shield for us. And over time, that's going to become important because we cannot, as you know, hold on to any cash that we produce, we have to basically pay it out per the REIT regulations. But as with fundamentals depreciation, as we grow the business, we would have the opportunity -- I know we're not saying we would, but we would have the opportunity to not pay out all the cash we produce and could reinvest that in the company and growing at a faster rate going forward. So overall, I'm very excited about the future. Right now, we still have some potholes to get through, but we're confident we can navigate through them. And at the company is setting itself for future growth and really powerful team that can continue great things, including our ultimate goal of becoming investment grade, which all arrows are pointing to how do we get there and what would be the benefits of getting there. But in general, we're doing all the right things to accomplish that in our views. I will say 1 last question -- 1 last general comment about tariffs because I think we haven't seen their impact yet. I think the second quarter was sort of overstating by free loading or front-running of inventories to try to get things on the shelves without the impact of tariffs. I do think they're onetime and don't think be sustained. And logic would tell you if prices went up, demand will fall, you might see an increase in supply or prices, and then you might see a decrease in prices that will be caught in order to generate excess demand. Sadly, the tariffs will impact those of the country who don't have that where with all to pay additional cost for the daily needs of their lives. And I think that could create great social anxiety and potential continued to splits in our society to the left and the right. I think we're going to start talking about the November midterms coming up. And by that time, we'll definitely know what the impact of these tariffs and whether they're benign or their benefits of increased revenue offset the social cost of companies having lower margins or consumers having less money in their pocket. So the jury is out, and I think we expect the back half of this year to be meaningfully less strong than the first half and the jobs class was probably the indication of that. And now we'll see what companies can do as they try to figure out what's permanent and what's temporary the more stability we have in the rules, the more businesses can figure out what to do. With that, I'd like to say thank you and take your questions.