Barry S. Sternlicht
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thank you, Andrew. Thank you, Stew. Good morning, everyone. I have to say this is about a 3-year anniversary of our existence in the firm. And it's almost to the day actually. And I think it's really quite remarkable that we started with a $900 million pool of cash and we've originated or acquired over $5 billion of assets, some of which have been recycled over the last 3 years. And I think it's really the core strength of the company that with now a nearly 40-person dedicated team and augmented by the 160 people in Starwood Capital Group, we've been able to source, find, structure, sell down and create this extraordinary pool of loans in a market where there's no yield. And I said in the last call, when you look at a 65% LTV book has stabilized fully levered will yield over 12%, you know there are a few things. First, if you take the loans that are 0% to 50% LTV, those are AAA, and they should be yielding LIBOR plus 50 in this market today, so the excess yield that created also by the team is extraordinary. And really my congratulations to the entire team for this execution in this marketplace. And then this most noteworthy thing for the company or a major milestone was this first on secured credit facility for the company. It shows a shift of both the power of the scale of the enterprise, but also a shift in our lending relationships looking at our scale of saying, it really says no issues. Then we have never had an issue for the first 3 years of our existence on any of the loans we've originated. None of them have ever go into the monetary default. So I think our underwriting has proven to be a unique blend of both the equity teams and the debt teams getting together and scraping and arguing and fighting and clawing over structure and over LTVs has really paid off, so far for the shareholders, which is fantastic. When we went public, we told you we will be predictable, we'd be safe, we'd produce a compelling yield and we do it in an explainable manner with state-of-the-art transparency. As you can see from our massive supplement, which is unbelievable. We are doing all those things so I think it's great, and we think you ought to know what you own. We're a big shareholder along with you, and we're very comfortable of owning the stock in this rateless world. It's a really interesting market today. Rates have been all over the place. The 10-year was way below 1.34%, I think it hit, it's 1.60% today. Who would have thought it could easily be 3.25 in 12 months, which is where it was about 14 months ago. So we are originating loans in sort of the way we always did. Despite the rally in bonds, we've not -- our LIBOR spreads have been able to come in primarily because senior lending has been tightening. Spreads in the senior lending have gotten tighter and tighter towards -- by banking institutions have been removed because there's virtually ferocious demand to put out capital. And when one bank removed the floor on a LIBOR loan, all the banks followed, and that's allowed us to lower our spreads and still be competitive in the marketplace. But it's not perfect. I was talking to Boyd and Stew earlier today. And we said the most compelling thing and most important competitive advantage we have is when we can do the whole loan, we can originate a loan at LIBOR plus 5, which obviously is dilutive to our dividend yield, but we can lever that and create a double-digit yield and a junior note. I also want to distinguish what we're doing because I always challenge the team on why we didn't participate in this BPs acquisition or -- some of our competitors have done volume BPs and securitization. You have to look at again the width of our mezzanine. They are quite wide, they go from 45% to 65% or 50% to 70%. They are very wide swaps of paper. And essentially, when we're doing that, when we originate the asset, where we know the asset and we originate the loan, if there's a default, we actually would love to own our asset at the basis at which we wrote the loan. In these BP securitizations, you might find a piece of paper from 70% to 73% LTV, and it operates as a first loss position in these. And so any one loan underneath going bad and you are the first guy to absorb it. They may have the same coupon, but they have totally different risk reward profile. And the more sophisticated you are and the more you understand our story, the more I think you'll like what we do and you'll take some surety that we can keep doing it, which has been interesting. I think the pipeline looks pretty good, and we are looking all over the world at investments. I think one of our challenges going forward will be what to do about the growing pipeline of debt opportunities in Europe. It's probably the biggest hole there is in the mezzanine markets. It's something that the papers can be quite large and we are at a sort of a competitive disadvantage, slightly because we're hedging these assets back into dollars and that probably scrapes it hundred basis points off the IRR. There are other people who aren't doing that, so to the extent we have to compete with them, that's a disadvantage. So we're thinking about what, if anything, we're going to do if the pipeline in Europe continues to grow. And again the appetite for the size of the piece of paper are enormous, there is really no junior debt. And there's a lot of -- there is still appetite, you can still get loans at LIBOR plus 450 in a senior but we continue to be astonished at the spread differential between Europe and the United States right now, which shouldn't be surprising given the banking situation in Europe and the fact that most lenders in Europe are pulling back. The French shores and the Spanish are trying to shore up their own sovereign debt, and the British banks backing the British properties. So the German banks, some of them are completely gone from the market have been quasi-nationalized. We're also watching regulations in our industry. We're very involved and very anxious to see where the whole requirements wind up for originators. We are a huge proponent that people should hold or hold the junior note or BPs or the retention of what they originate. I can't imagine a better alignment of interest. There's a proven case of how this works in the DUS lending business. If you look at the DUS lenders, where they have a 5% guarantee essentially on the loan in top junior 5%, they basically guarantee the default rates on those loans is dramatically better than loans that are originated in the conduit market and collapse in the real estate correction. So you can see that when you are forced to have some hold or some skin in the game, it has been a healthier, better market for investors, and I can't see any reason the Treasury and the Fed wouldn't force banks to keep a piece. And by the way, it's obviously self-serving, we would love to originate those loans. And then they can take down any size they want of our loan and the A piece or incline the stack and then sell it on. But we're the originator and we are a holder. We eat what we originate. And we like that. And I think, also, one of the other things that's happened over the last 3 years is that we get phone calls now. I mean, people who were initially afraid of Starwood Capital that we are piranhas and we would make a loan and then try to pick your property back. But I think as we've done deals with people like Blackstone and others, people have gotten comfortable that we really are simply trying to originate performing loans, and that's been our business from the start and we don't want the keys, not in this vehicle. As you know, that creates lack of transparency, a lot of costs we can't predict and volatility in our earnings and it's been a business that we've decided to stay away from and we've done so to date. I also want to point out that even though we've originated $5.1 billion, I think the permanent book is $3 billion now after the -- so we have round-tripped over $2 billion of capital in our 3 years, which is quite efficient. And I think one of the things that we are trying to do is utilize. We have a lot of low-yielding first mortgages still on our portfolio. You can see it in the columns in the earnings release. There's a column that says ROA, the unlevered yield. The second column is return on assets in unlevered yield -- the leverage return as they are levered today. And the last column which reads optimal leveraged return. And if we drew the facilities that we have arranged on that capital, you can see the power of the leverage. But we don't need those leverage, so we're not borrowing it. And what we've been doing every time we raise money is we pay off these lines against these positions. And so the ROE, the ROI assets, ROE of the entity drops and then it rises and it's creating a -- it's not optimal. And again as we grow and as these any one loan maturing becomes less critical, we can more efficiently manage our balance sheet. I also think it's kind of cool that our book value is the highest it's ever been, hopefully at a current pace, we'll pass the IPO price as a book value, which is sweet. It's hard to do obviously when you have to pay out all your earnings. And that leads me to another point which Stew did not mention, is that we will have to examine whether we have to do a special fourth quarter dividend based on our earnings projections and what we see happening in the market and the pace of what we're doing. That's something the board will have to decide and it actually won't be -- it will be what it'll be. It will be whatever the REIT requirements are for us. So we decided we'd do so with special dividend and not a raise of the bar every quarter with moving the annual dividend. We also continue to look at other verticals. Stable businesses with our lines of business that we think there are holes in the capital markets to fill. We're exploring a number of industries to which first mortgage financing is not available today. There are other areas where banking laws changes. It will provide significant pipeline opportunities for us. So we're pretty pleased at where we sit today. There's a very large commercial money center bank that says they have a fortress balance sheet. And I think we have a pretty good fortress of book of loans. And we are seeing, as I said, a lot of transactions. And again, our biggest issue is maximizing, being able to take down large whole loans. We're $2.5 billion, and we're the biggest commercial mortgage REIT in the country but we're a teeny-weeny company. If you're going to do $150 million loan, it's hard to do and those are the loans we want. They're better properties. The SoHo loan, $170 million in Manhattan in a -- and those are some of the highest rents in Manhattan. That's the kind of deals we need to do. And to do that, we need to be -- have the capacity to write that whole loan and then sell off the junior note. So again, I'll also say, that this corporate facility is not to be undersold. This is a big deal and it will allow us, as Stew said, to manage our capital much better. We now can make that whole loan and at 5.25% and not be dilutive. It will be accretive to that financing facility. So there's about 5 banks that participated in that syndicate. And we want to thank all of them. We could not have done that 3 years ago. Actually, we wouldn't even come close. And I will say on the portfolio side, again, when we talked about going public and predictable and safe, we've really monitored the diversity of what we're doing by state, by product type and the pool of the -- while we still have some hotel concentration, that's an asset class we know pretty well. And we still remain very diversified. You can see it by the originations we've done some office deals in places like New York, who would have thought. And the LTVs have been exceptional. We have no commercial NPLs. And personally, we didn't expect to have any. So we think we're in a good place today. I think our dividend yield is quite compelling. I wish my hedge fund first portfolio was producing 7%, 8% unlevered. You can lever our stock and earn a 15 today if margin are on stock, that would make us the best performing large macro fund in the world. And I giggle. I asked our guys to produce the IRR on the paper that's round-tripped into our company because if we were a hedge fund, we would really be able to retire. We've done a really good job, I think, for shareholders and I'm slapping my team on the back because we don't often celebrate our successes, but we've done a really nice job. And I look at apartment REITs that are probably yielding unlevered 4% and we're producing twice of that, and that's the best asset class for NOI growth. So if you think cash flows are going to double for apartments, they won't. There'll be new construction and they will never get to the 7%, 8% unleveraged yield that our mortgage REIT is producing today and it gets worse from there. I mean, obviously yield is valuable but as long as we can continue to produce this kind of risk-adjusted returns, I think we have a great future in front of us. Thank you very much, and we'll take questions.