Steven Rasche
Analyst · Avon Capital Advisors. Please go ahead sir
Thanks, Suzanne, and good morning, everyone. Let’s take a look at our operating results for our third quarter ended June 30 and review our outlook for the rest of the year. Starting on Slide 10, third quarter net economic earnings were $14.6 million or $0.33 per share, up from $11.1 million or $0.25 a share a year ago. The $0.08 year-over-year increase was driven by improvement across all business segments. Gas Utility posted net economic earnings of $18 million, up $1.5 million. Gas Marketing posted an increase of $1.3 million and other corporate expenses were also lower this year by $700,000. With that as a backdrop, let’s take a look at the key drivers of that improved performance turning to Slide 11. For the quarter, total operating revenues were $249 million, down 9% from last year with that decline primarily due to lower commodity costs, which represents the majority of our customer bill, offset in part by higher sales volumes. A better measure of our topline performance is operating margin or earnings contribution after gas cost and gross receipts taxes. Gas utility operating margin of nearly $177 million was up $4 million or about 2% due to higher ISRS revenues in Missouri and reduction in the RSC adjustment at Alagasco, partially offset by other movements, including the timing of gas cost recovers. Remember, when looking at operating margin in Alabama, RSC rate adjustments, which true-up actual and authorized ROE flow through the margin line. In this quarter, that adjustment was $2.8 million lower than last year. We’re moving this rate true-up in both periods; utility margins were up $1.2 million. Gas marketing operating margin was lower than last year by $3.3 million, driven by fair value adjustments in both 2016 and 2015. Removing these adjustments, margins were higher by approximately $2 million, due to increasing volumes in storage revenues offset in part by narrowing spreads. Looking at operating expenses, gas utility operation and maintenance expenses increased modestly by $1.2 million, with that variance driven largely by the benefit of a $7.6 million non-recurring gain on sale of property last year. Excluding this gain, O&M expenses were actually down $6.4 million, reflecting lower bad debt expense, due primarily to warmer weather during the heating season, and lower employee-related costs. Depreciation and amortization expense was up marginally due to higher capital spend over last year and taxes other than income, which reflect on higher property taxes and payroll taxes, as well as higher gross receipts taxes due to higher volumes. Gas marketing operating expenses saw a big decline, consistent with the trend we’ve seen all year, as higher volumes were more than offset by much lower commodity costs, and a higher mix of trading activity, where costs are netted against revenues. Finally, income tax expense this quarter includes our normal true-up associated with the filing of our annual tax return and reconciling of deferred tax balances. We still expect our full-year effective tax rate to fall in the lower 30% range. Looking quickly at results for the first three quarters of our fiscal 2016 on Slide 13, consolidated net economic earnings of $163 million were up nearly $9 million, an increase of about 6%. Gas utility earnings of just over $170 million were up 4.7% from last year. And remember, operating results for the year were significantly impacted by the warmer weather in our service territory. Operating margins were adversely impacted by roughly $17 million, due to lower overall demand across all three service territories. At the same time, we saw equally strong decreases in operating expenses that are naturally lower due to lower stress on the system, higher field team productivity and lower bad debt expenses with bad debt certainly also weighted by the lower commodity cost environment. Earnings also benefited from higher interest revenues in Missouri, as well as cost efficiencies and lower RSE adjustments in Alabama. Gas marketing’s earnings improved by $1.5 million, due to higher volumes and the benefit of storage activities partially offset by narrowing spreads, which is reflective of the current market. And finally, other expenses were up marginally due primarily to higher short-term interest rates. The quality of earnings remains very high. EBITDA, earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization, was up 4% last year to $396 million. Operating cash flow and liquidity remained very strong and our long-term capitalization now stands at nearly 52% equity, up essentially from a 50-50 split at the beginning of the fiscal year. As Suzanne mentioned a minute ago, during the quarter, we’ve firmed up our permanent financing to support the EnergySouth acquisition. In May, we issued a total of 2.2 million common shares for a $138 million. And in June, we finalized commitments for $165 million in private placement debt. That debt will fund at the close of the transaction. As a reminder, from a net economic earnings standpoint, all this financing activity as well as any operating results associated with the two utilities should we close the deal before the end of the fiscal year, will be excluded from our net economic earnings and per share results for 2016, so that you have a clear comparability to both prior year and our guidance. Turning to Slide 15, capital expenditures totaled $195 million year-to-date, slightly ahead of last year’s run rate after removing non-recurring facility and IT spend in 2015. Current year capital spend targets based on current run rates and the timing of projects is $310 million with over 73% of our utility CapEx recoverable and rates with minimal regulatory lag. And if you factor in new business spin that drives new margins that percentage increases to nearly 83%. I would also note that effective May 31, the Missouri Public Service Commission approved $9 million increase in our ISRS revenues, bringing total annual run rate to just over $35 million. And finally, our five-year outlook remains unchanged for capital spend at $1.8 billion, before including Mobile Gas and Willmut Gas. Their CapEx run rate is about $17 million annually and once we close on the acquisition, we’ll be in a better position to quantify their impact on our overall forward plan. Turning to dividends. Last week, our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.49 per share for an annualized rate of $1.96 per share, representing a 6.5% increase over the prior year. Our current dividend yield is nearly 3% and we remain conservatively postured in the lower half of our target range for payout ratio. Turning to Slide 17, let me update you on a few forward-looking items. First, given our performance year-to-date, we expect to fall in the upper-end of our fiscal 2016 net economic earnings guidance of $3.34 to $3.44 per share. We remain comfortable with our long-term annual EPS growth target of 4% to 6% a benchmark which guides both our annual expectations as well as our longer-term view. And as we begin crystallizing our view for 2017 and 2018, growth in those two years, especially 2018, will be supported by earnings associated with the acquisition of Mobile Gas and Willmut Gas, and the AFUDC associated with our Spire STL Pipeline. AFUDC, which stands for Allowance for Funds Used During Construction, essentially allows us to earn a return on the accumulated investment we have in the pipeline. And by the end of 2018, under the current schedule, those investments are anticipated to be roughly $85 million. Of course, there are several other moving parts in the next couple of years; a 2017 Missouri rate case filing and the mid-year 2017 conversion of the unit mandatory and the picture when you put all these moving parts together still points to growth consistent with our long-term guidance. So in summary, we’ve delivered a strong year thus far and we are performing in line with our expectations. We continue to execute across the board on our growth initiatives, including growing our gas utilities through capital investment and pursuing organic growth. And we’re doing all this while strengthening our financial position to support growth going forward. Suzanne, let me turn it back to you.