Jeremy W. Smeltser
Analyst · Jeff Sprague
Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin with earnings per share. Our EPS guidance range for the quarter was $1.20 to $1.30 per share. On a comparable basis, we reported $1.40 of EPS, $0.15 better than the midpoint of our guidance. These results included $0.12 of EPS from the businesses we moved to discontinued operations in the period. We exceeded our expectations primarily due to a $0.07 benefit from discrete tax items and a $0.05 benefit from segment income, which came in near the high end of our target range. On a continuing operations basis, we reported $1.28 of earnings per share, up 39% over the prior year period. Looking at the year-over-year growth drivers. Segment income increased $0.10 per share, as growth in Flow and Industrial offset the expected decline in Thermal segment income. Equity earnings increased $0.04 driven primarily by our EGS joint venture with Emerson Electric. And as a result of our capital allocation investments, the lower share count and lower pension expense combined to increase EPS by $0.20. Net other items were a $0.03 benefit. Looking at the segments, beginning with Flow. Flow reported $652 million of revenue for the quarter, up modestly over the prior year. Organic growth was driven by increased sales of components into the oil and gas markets in North America, Europe and the Middle East. This growth was offset by lower sales of food and beverage systems. Last year, we reported $28 million of revenue related to 3 large dairy projects in Asia Pacific. There were no projects of this size that contributed to Flow's Q3 2013 operating results. Segment income increased 6% over the prior year period to $83 million. Operating margin increased to 12.8%, up 80 points year-over-year and up 260 points sequentially. The margin improvement was driven by cost savings from restructuring actions and improved operating performance, particularly at ClydeUnion. We are very encouraged by ClydeUnion's performance in the quarter. ClydeUnion's revenue increased 4% over the prior year to $132 million. More importantly, operating margins increased to nearly 10%, up sharply on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. The margin improvement was driven by reduced SG&A cost as a result of the restructuring actions, as well as a higher mix of aftermarket revenue. Aftermarket sales contributed over 50% of total revenue in the quarter. We continue to make progress executing the distressed contracts and the acquired backlog at ClydeUnion. During Q3, we recorded $5 million of revenue related to these contracts and now have only $10 million remaining in backlog. As we've executed the acquired backlog, we have been disciplined with respect to new orders at ClydeUnion. Flow's Q3 orders were up 21% year-over-year in the third quarter and the backlog increased 6% sequentially to $1.4 billion. As Chris mentioned, we saw an increase in OE pump orders at ClydeUnion, as well as an increase in food and beverage system orders. Looking at Q4, Flow is targeting revenue of about $740 million, which represents low single-digit growth over the prior year. Sequentially, the revenue increase is expected to be driven by a seasonal uptick in aftermarket sales, particularly in oil and gas. Fourth quarter margins are expected to increase sequentially and year-over-year to around 13.5%. That is within our long-term margin target range. Moving on to the Thermal segment. As expected, Thermal's revenue was down 14% year-over-year to $324 million. Organic revenue declined 12% and currency was a 2% headwind. The organic decline was partially due to the expected rampdown of the large projects in South Africa, where revenue was down $22 million over the prior year. Additionally, we had a retrofit project in the U.S. last year that contributed $21 million of revenue. There was no comparable project in the Q3 2013 operating results for Thermal. Segment income was $22 million and margins were 6.7%. The reduced profitability was driven primarily by the organic revenue decline and the lower mix of retrofit sales. These headwinds were partially offset by cost reduction actions and improved execution. Looking at the sequential analysis for Thermal. We continue to execute well in the South African backlog, which declined to $165 million. Excluding South Africa, Thermal's backlog has increased quarter-to-quarter and is now up 5% from the end of 2012. For Q4, we are targeting revenue to be between $350 million and $375 million with margins around 9%. On a sequential basis, these targets reflect the historical seasonality of the segment. The primary seasonal driver is winter demand for our short-cycle personal comfort heating products. We also expect sales of evaporative cooling equipment to increase sequentially given the increased backlog. On a year-over-year basis, we expect Q4 revenue to decline by about $80 million. This is primarily due to the rampdown of the South Africa projects and lower boiler sales. As you may recall, last year's Q4 results benefited from an incremental $20 million of boiler sales related to Hurricane Sandy relief efforts. Moving on to Industrial. As a reminder, the results for Industrial now exclude the businesses that were moved to discontinued operations in Q3. For the remaining businesses, revenue increased 11.5% year-over-year to $170 million. Organic revenue grew 11% driven by increased sales of fare collection systems and power transformers. We had very strong leverage on the sales growth. Segment income increased by $8 million, up 45% over the prior year and margins improved 340 points to 14.5%. The margin expansion was driven by the increased sales of higher-margin fare collection systems, as well as improved execution at our power transformer business. Sequentially, the backlog has increased steadily since the end of last year. The ending Q3 backlog was $328 million, up 8% quarter-to-quarter. The backlog increase was driven by very strong order intake for fare collection systems. The backlog at our transformer business also increased sequentially. We expect these 2 businesses to be key drivers of higher revenue and profitability in the segment during the fourth quarter. For Q4, we are targeting about $235 million of revenue with margins increasing to about 17%, reflecting the higher mix of fare collection systems. Now I'll move on to our financial targets for Q4 and full year. On a consolidated basis, we are targeting Q4 revenue to be flat to down 4% versus last year. We expect very strong organic growth at Industrial and modest organic growth at Flow. This is expected to be offset by the revenue headwinds I discussed in our Thermal segment. For segment income, we are targeting $168 million to $178 million with margins around 13%, up about 80 points year-over-year. We expect to record about $10 million of restructuring expense in Q4 with the majority related to the continued cost reductions at ClydeUnion that Chris mentioned. Our fourth quarter guidance range for EPS from continuing operations is $1.73 to $1.88 per share. This represents double-digit growth over the prior year. Note that we are using 46 million shares outstanding and a 26% effective tax rate in our Q4 earnings model. For the full year, we have updated our segment targets to reflect the Q3 results, our fourth quarter expectations and the discontinued operations. For Flow, we are projecting revenue to be flat to the prior year with margins increasing nearly 100 points to around 11.5%. We reduced Flow's organic revenue target, reflecting slower revenue recognition at ClydeUnion. At Thermal, we now expect revenue to be down between 9% and 11% with margins at about 6%. We reduced Thermal's organic revenue target due to customer-driven delays on timing of evaporative cooling projects that are in the backlog. And at Industrial, we are targeting 11% to 12% revenue growth with margins improving 250 points to around 15%. The revenue growth and margin expansion this year is being driven by the transformer and fare collection businesses. Moving on to EPS. Note that our guidance is on a continuing operations basis. Our updated guidance excludes $0.42 of earnings per share now reported as discontinued operations. It also reflects $0.09 of increased restructuring expense. At the midpoint, these are the only significant changes to our earnings per share guidance for the full year. We are now targeting earnings from continuing operations to be between $3.80 and $3.95 per share. As a reminder, our full year model assumes 46 million shares outstanding and a 21% all-in tax rate. For long-term modeling purposes, we are using a tax rate between 24% and 26%. I'll finish with an update on our financial position and capital allocation. We ended the third quarter with $491 million of cash on hand, up $138 million from the end of Q2. We generated $141 million of free cash flow in the period, a significant increase over the prior year. Our free cash flow performance improved across all 3 segments, highlighted by strong working capital performance at Thermal and Flow. For the full year, we are now targeting adjusted free cash flow between $250 million and $280 million. Gross debt remained essentially flat at just under $1.7 billion. While we have a flexible capital structure, our gross debt-to-EBITDA is at about 3x, and this is above our target range of 1.5x to 2.5x. Looking at capital allocation. As a reminder, we committed $450 million to capital allocation actions this year, including the $250 million voluntary pension funding that we completed in Q2 and $200 million of share repurchases. We repurchased $145 million of shares in the first half. During Q3, we did not repurchase shares due to divestiture activity. We do, however, expect to complete the remaining $55 million of share repurchases in the fourth quarter. Looking at our projected liquidity. We are targeting about $200 million of total free cash flow in Q4. After completing the share repurchases and paying our dividend, we expect to have about $625 million of cash on hand at year end, and we expect additional liquidity in 2014 from the sale proceeds of the discontinued operations. Based on these projections, we have sufficient financial flexibility as we move into next year. With reduced EBITDA as a result of the divestitures, we intend to use a portion of our available liquidity to reduce debt and leverage towards our target range. We also intend to repurchase additional shares to mitigate a large portion of the earnings dilution from these divestitures. The amount of the debt reduction and share repurchases will be determined once we know the exact amount of net proceeds to expect from these asset sales. We will also evaluate additional capital allocation actions based on our disciplined methodology. Given the high level of liquidity, I want to take a moment to remind you of our capital allocation methodology. We utilize our strategic planning processes to evaluate future revenue and earnings expectations. This enables us to project future EBITDA and cash flows. Based on these projections, we formulate our internal valuation of the company. Our top priorities are to maintain our target capital structure and fund our dividends. After satisfying those priorities, our goal is to invest capital in the highest risk-adjusted return opportunities that are available to us. We use EVA models to evaluate all of our capital allocation opportunities. This includes organic investments, strategic acquisitions, share repurchases and increases to our dividend. With respect to acquisitions, as we previously stated, we are not allocating capital to acquisitions in the near term. Our near-term objectives remain focused on operating improvement, reducing leverage and returning capital to shareholders. Taking a brief look at our capital allocation history. In aggregate, over the last 9 years, we've deployed over $6 billion of capital. About half has been returned to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, a total of $3 billion. We have invested close to $2 billion on acquisitions and reduced our total debt by about $1 billion. As you can see, we raised over $4 billion of capital through divestitures. These proceeds funded a large portion of our allocated capital and unlocked value for our shareholders. We have redeployed the proceeds from asset sales into higher growth investments, as well as opportunistic share repurchases. As a result of this approach, we have significant liquidity to continue building a stronger SPX and add customer relevance in our strategic end markets. This concludes my prepared remarks. And at this time, I'll turn the call back over to Chris.