Earnings Labs

The Southern Company (SO)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Mon, Oct 31, 2016

$93.91

-0.40%

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Transcript

Aaron Abramovitz

Management

Thank you all for joining us for Southern Company's 2016 Analyst Day. In just a moment, I am going to turn it over to Tom Fanning, Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer of Southern Company. Let me remind you that we will make forward-looking statements today in addition to providing historical information. Various important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, including those discussed in our Form 10-K and subsequent filings. In addition, we will present non-GAAP financial information on this call and in this meeting. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measure are included in the financial information and slides we released this morning, and available at investor.southerncompany.com. And with that, Tom, you’ve got the floor.

Tom Fanning

Management

Well done for the fascinating prohibiting segment right there. All right. Hey, welcome everybody. Thank you for being here. I know you could be a lot other places, and I know it's a busy day. So we appreciate you investing your time here. We have a great agenda, I think. One of the things I want to you know has been, especially 2016, has been last 12 months hyper-active at Southern. I think we’ve, from the times that I’ve talked to you in the past about the ebbs and flows of earnings, from the challenges we faced, from the event risk and everything else, this is a period where, in my opinion, Southern is as good as it's ever been. And in fact, for the first time ever, we are extending our notion of what is long-term growth. We have great transparency, great space, in what we’re able to deliver. And in fact we’re getting to a point where it's going to be a little hard to knock us off of what we could do. I must repeat what Aaron said, I can't, to tell you what certainty what the future will bring and everything else. However, I believe Southern Company is positioned as well today as it's been in my history, and that goes back a long way. Let's go on to my stuff. So much of what you hear around our industry is not based in that. You get all day long and you live in the idea as we do, our competitive intelligence group at Southern, with models and we are trying to identify what the ebbs and flows of the Company will, and what the risk tolerances are, and everything else. I must say that what makes Southern unique is our how’s it's not our what's?…

Paul Bowers

Management

This is Paul Bowers, CEO at Georgia Power. So many of you already had some conversations today with us about that settlement in page 24 in your book you’ll see an online of what that really means. It reemphasize what Tom said about the constructive regulatory environment, trying to de-risk, if you will, the future of Vogtle construction as we go through the process. Go back to last year. We had the litigation, settled the litigation, which gave us the opportunity to have a conversation with Public Service Commission in George about prudence. Going through the last nine months or so, we were able to have an agreement with staff that is outlined on our page 24, which really gives you some idea of what we’re going to do with this plan associated with the additional calls, and associated with $1 billion. So that really has de-risked, given there’s certainty about what we want to do with this plan.

Tom Fanning

Management

And let’s reinforce the head line on Vogtle that we are relentless about. It is the notion that when that plant was ordered to be built, we thought it would be a 12% price increase. We still believe that it's going to be somewhere at the end of the day, a 6% to 7% pricing.

Paul Bowers

Management

Exactly right.

Tom Fanning

Management

That’s it. And it’s gone beautifully. And we’re on schedule.

Paul Bowers

Management

Absolutely...

Tom Fanning

Management

And we’ve gotten the litigation settled. We’ve got an increased cost associated with that litigation approved. Well, not approved yet, recommended to be approved by the commission.

Paul Bowers

Management

So the commission will -- the staff has made the recommendation to commissioners while take it up hopefully before the end of the year, and vote on stipulation.

Tom Fanning

Management

Thank you, Paul. Steve Kuczynski, runs in my opinion the best nuclear fleet in America now. Steve, tell us about the progress on 3 and 4.

Steve Kuczynski

Management

So progress on construction, getting it built is going very well. We are particularly encouraged about our progress on the second unit as expected. First unit tackles the new construction challenges, and we leverage those learnings over into the second unit. And we're service, as we typically would, expect on a major construction project, a very strong improvement productivity and construction progress. So, we’re retiring risk in construction and we're retiring risk in operations. And we're fortunate to have the same technology, the AP1000s, being started up in China. They're exactly two years ahead of us. So, two years from now, we'll be in the exact same spot they will be. And they're progressing through start-up, looking to load-fuel here in the next month or two. And that is progressing as expected. So, we're bringing down risks on both construction and operations. And we have folks on the ground full-time in China, watching that start-up. So, we get the best learnings out of that. And the key individuals out of Westinghouse house and floor that actually built the plant in China, they're sequencing two our facility in order to bring that additional expertise to make sure we're successful. So, I think we're well positioned for our June of 19th and June of 20th, bringing these units to operation.

Tom Fanning

Management

Fantastic, thanks for that. Acquisition of PowerSecure, so you've seen the material, I’ve always asked -- one person ask me, why are you talking about PowerSecure if it's so small? Interesting, how much secure is this window on the world? And we thought it was an important small but important bet, nevertheless, for us to make. And that is I'm not just going to let these sales erode, 0% to 1% is what's robust in this model. So, what we do? What PowerSecure has been so far, I call it, distributed infrastructure, broadly. So, it's been distributed generation. They do things in a proprietary way in terms of back-up generation, in terms of variety of products and services, including storage proprietary. They do a terrific job. The thing that we were so attracted to with PowerSecure is they have built a book of business with 200 firms, many of which want to remain secret, particularly with respect to proprietary technology and what's on campus, so that they maintain a commercial advantage. Anywhere these guys have gone, they've gotten repeat business. They have built a following among the finest companies in America, especially those with pristine reliability requirements that we think gives us the ability to reproduce in a sustainable way. And then it's not just distributed generation, it goes to things like energy efficiency, and broadly, utility infrastructure, micro grids, all kinds of things. So, what they needed, they were a publicly traded company, successful. They needed somebody big. One of the things Southern Company has done so well for so long I go back to customer satisfaction. Our key accounts team has been voted regularly among the best in the United States. These are our very biggest customers. And by the way, we can take now PowerSecure and link…

Stan Connally

Management

Thank you, Tom, and good morning. So I present these four companies, Mark and I, and we want to acknowledge our Paul Bowers and Anthony Wilson, and the hard work they do at these operating companies. And as you think about what Tom said, the long history Southern Company has had, these four regulated retail state jurisdictions have had an incredibly valuable part of Southern Company's history, and we’ll continue doing that. We’ve been a part of helping create this economic atmosphere of growth in our jurisdictions for at least 90-years in every one of our companies, dating back to the early part of the 20th century. And we’ve been supporting that Southern value proposition. But it starts with, like Tom said, that customer and community value proposition. And we thought we just start by talking about some of those very fundamentals that makes customers and communities successful as we get started here.

Mark Crosswhite

Management

So Stan said that we’ve been serving out here the country for about 100 years now. We have been successful over that time by focusing on the fundamentals. You can see here what we do safety over the past 11 years or so, our core investment rate is down about 50%, so we’re operating safer than ever. Reliability, keep the lights on. We keep the lights on 99.9% of the time, industry leading reliability. And when there is a hurricane or severe weather, our folks will recognize across the industry for their ability to restore service very quickly. Customer satisfaction, Tom mentioned it several times. We have the highest levels of customer satisfaction. We track it relentlessly. And our Company is always at the top of that, the store base. Affordable prices, that’s certainly something that we know we have to deliver. We’re focused very much on keeping our prices affordable. All of this focus on the fundamentals, allows us to have a constructive regulatory environment in each of our states. For the remainder of our presentation, Stan and I are going to talk about our service areas. We’re going to talk about our capital investment, and we’re going to talk about the constructive regulatory environments. Service areas, we recognize, and Tom’s slide started-off by saying we’re bigger than our bottom line. We really believe that. We know we’re only as successful as the communities we serve. So, we work very hard to make sure they are successful. It is encourage, and I would say even expected at all of our companies that employees are very engaged in their community. And you will find that’s a common theme at each of our operating companies. Which you’ll also see that we do more than just encourage our employees to be involved, we invest in our communities. We invest in education. We invest in work force development. We invest in arts and culture, trying to make our service areas better placed us to live. Make them stronger, because we recognize if our communities are stronger, we’re stronger.

Stan Connally

Management

Yes, I mean, it literally is a piece of our strategy. It’s not just redirect. And one place we put our money where our mouths are is economic development, helping drive business investment, helping drive job growth, in these communities. So, every single one of us have a team that engages with the local economic developers, state economic development groups. Mark and I, as well and Anthony and Paul, all hold prominent roles in our state-wide economic development organizations. And as you can see from some of the emblems on the slide, we also offer business recruitment tools, site selection type tools for prospects considering our states. And look, we’re having some successes. Just last week, in Georgia Power, and some helps just announced up to 1,800 technology based jobs at a technology center at Midtown Atlanta that they will grow in over a period of time, another example of that technology sector that’s growing in the Southeast. About six weeks ago, in Gulf jurisdiction in Panama City Florida, Eastern Shipbuilding announced that they had been selected for the first phase of a coastguard contract to build their new offshore petrol cutters. The first of what could be 25 ships built like there in Panama City. So, we’re having some successes in the Southeast. And by the way, as we were going through with our merger with AGL Resources, now Southern Company Gas, our work in the economic development space was one of those things of interest as we talked to the various jurisdictions about what we do in the Southeast and how we can share those practices across our new spaces. And, our pipeline for projects remains fairly robust going forward. So, we’re encouraged that we’ll continue to have opportunities to bring new growth and new job growth into…

Mark Crosswhite

Management

Now, we’re going to talk about our capital investment. So Stan talked about our customer growth. Customer growth is certainly a component that leads to capital investment. But that's not all of it. We also invest in capital to better serve our customers or reduce the operating cost. Good examples of that would be things like self-feeding networks with a smart grid where we see we can make investments that will better serve customers or bring the cost to serve them down overtime. Another major component of our capital investment will be compliance cost, especially environmental compliance. And as you see the chart down at the bottom, you will see our projection for the next five years of capital investment at the operating companies. You will see us declining somewhat. Well, it's declining because Vogtle 3 and 4 will be winding up during this time period. And many of our major environmental programs will have had the major capital investments made through this time period. Point to emphasize here and I think Tom alluded to, but he didn’t say it directly. The Clean Power Plan and compliance is not included in these numbers. These numbers are known environmental, or all compliance plans included, not the Clean Power Plan. Clean Power Plan could have some impact in the later years and even beyond of this capital investment. There is more detailed information material about the breakdown of the capital investment.

Stan Connally

Management

Well just speaking right up on the capital growth. Certainly, as you do that incremental capital growth, we're seeing modest growth in our rate base. And you can see over this time frame, 2.6% growth over the time period. And we hope to continue to execute on that. And as Mark said, it does not include any response to the Clean Power Plan. Now underpinning our ability to invest that capital must be a constructive regulatory environment. And we certainly all feel as though we have constructive regulatory environments in our four respective states. I’ll pick-up quickly and just talk about the Gulf situation. I’ll skip down the page a bit. Many of you know Gulf Power Company filed its 2016 rate-case about three weeks ago. It’s using a forward-looking test year, using 2017 as that test year. And we would anticipate that we have an outcome on that in the spring or early summer of next year. At the same time, currently right now at Gulf, we have our annual clause filings that something we do every year. And certainly hope to have a constructive outcome there. We’ve already talked about Kemper, a good bit. Anthony and the team are working very hard to ensure an outcome there that’s constructive. And as well, they have annual filings they too will be going through over the next few months. They are PEP filing in their clause filings.

Mark Crosswhite

Management

For Alabama, Alabama has a right mechanism, called right stabilization and equalization, RSE. It’s been in effect since 1982. It is a forward-looking test year process that we go through every year where we’re making our filings to Alabama Power between now and December 1st, dealing with RSE and any clause filings that need to be made. Georgia, Paul has already talked about the Vogtle prudence case. So I won’t go into that. We put on here 2019 rate-case and 2019 RSE. And what we want to convey there is we recognize that we’re always subject to regulatory view and regulatory process. But we don’t see anything on the horizon at Georgia Power in a substantial manner, between now and 2019. So, we think we have handled the major issue that Georgia Power is facing into that time. Okay, solid returns on investment. So you will see that over the past five years, we have had stable solid returns among the operating companies; predictable, sustainable reliable returns, as Tom would say. How do we continue that going forward? Well, first, we continue to focus on the fundamentals, customer service, reliability, safety, we’re working in our communities. We also mitigate our O&M escalation. We rain-in inflation in our O&M costs. We are doing that through things now like alternate payment locations where we’re putting payment locations and banks, grocery stores, pharmacies, where if the customer would like, they can go there and pay their bill rather than having to come into an office. Overtime, that is going to help us control our O&M costs. Executing there, will lead to constructive regulatory results, and will us to continue to earn solid sustainable returns going forward.

Stan Connally

Management

Okay, just to wrap up. Certainly, we’ve talked a lot about the Southern value proposition, and we’ll continue doing that through today. But a fundamental for us and for all of our team is staying focused on that customer value proposition, which is supported by those very fundamentals that Mark hit early on, service and reliability. We must stay focused there. We’ve got significant accomplishments on our major projects. You’ve heard, Paul talk about Vogtle, Tom talked about Kemper, both in the construction and regulatory arenas, made great progress there. And we anticipate even great progress going forward. Mark said it, we’ve got visibility on our allowed returns over the near term, particularly at our two largest subsidiaries, Georgia Power and Alabama Power, over the near-term. That robust capital program is ongoing. I’ll remind you it does not include our response to the Clean Power Plan. That creates the upside over the long-term. And then certainly all four of us are supremely focused on delivering those sustainable returns in support of that value proposition, going forward. So, with that, I think we're ready to transition to one of our teammates.

Tom Fanning

Management

Well, that wraps up our portion. There is a short change of plan. I think we're going to have a brief break. And here comes the break-master right here to tell us what we're going to do.

Aaron Abramovitz

Management

Yes, we're going to [Technical Difficulty] in the interest everybody's comfort and hunger and coffee. So, I want to keep on going. Well, let's take a quick 10 minute break. Just make it quick. [BREAK] If everybody could take their seats, we will get started again. Okay, guys welcome back. Our next presenter is CEO of Southern Company Gas, Drew Evans.

Drew Evans

Management

Good morning. Thank you for returning. As Aaron said, my name is Drew Evans. I’m the President Southern Company Gas. And for those you that I don’t or haven’t had the chance to meet, I’ve been at AGL Resources, the predecessor of Southern Company Gas for 15years, and prior to that actually spent 10 years in the Southern system. So I’m recycled Southern employee, and very glad to be back. My goal today is to orient you, maybe some of these for the first time on what Southern Company Gas is. And I think it would probably be to my advantage to give you a little bit of background or backdrop in terms of the construction of the natural gas business, in particular, not a lot of detail but just enough to be dangerous. The traditional natural gas business is simply broken down into three primary segments. We’ve always talked about, obvious, the upstream, midstream and downstream. The upstream segment is the production segment, exploration production. And that probably has undergone the single largest change of anything in the energy industry. If you think about 2007 and 2008, natural gas prices were rising pretty drastically, traditional production was inshore, offshore, deepwater, and a relatively depleting resource. But we always say in the gas business, nothing saw the high prices like high prices. And in the 2008-2009 sort of shale revolution, a very significant, watershed changes has occurred that has significant implications for both the midstream segment and the downstream segments that we operate. I would tell you though that it is not simply just an issue of fracing, it’s actually a trio of technologies between hydraulic fracturing, micro seismic, or 3D seismic, but also probably most importantly, directional drilling. And if you think about the footprint requirements of the exploration…

Buzz Miller

Management

All right. Good morning. I am Buzz Miller, for those who don’t know me and I'm very fortunate to be leading Southern Power right now. It's very exciting time for us. The first thing, I want to do is to take us through a little bit of history of Southern Power. A lot of this is just reemphasizing what Tom was saying in his opening presentation. After spin of merit in early 2000, Southern Power was established and it was established very simply as you see and you've heard. Lower risk, long-term contracts, credit worthy counterparties, minimal fuel risk transmission risk, and back in that time period gas was just emerging as a dominant solution, and our focus was on the super Southeast, and so that's why we did business for basically the first decade. New into that decade renewables were emerging as a dominant solution. Company took a hard look you have solar, you have wind and at that time our basis of looking at things was that utility scale solar was really a match for what I've just said for our business model. Ability to go and get long-term contracts, credit worthy counting parties and very and obviously the low fuel risk there on solar. Thinking that some day we would use it in the southeast the first projects were out west we have partnerships with Ted Turner's group at Cimarron. We've continued that partnership today. We've expanded to other partners as we got beyond that five year period. You can see in 2016, we had a huge amount of growth in the 2015 and 2016. We've expanding the solar partners we have. We've got that multiple going on now. We've gotten into wind now likewise we are with wind partners and expanding our list of partner that…

Art Beattie

Management

Thank you, Buzz. Good morning. I want to thank you all again for being here today. I know it's a bit of your time and I appreciate you listening to our story. I know it was probably 30 seconds after you either look at our materials online or actually picked up your book, you looked at my slides, you know everything I'm going to tell you but that's okay, it's going to be a little a anticlimactic for you. But that's the way it is. My job today is to try to mop up, make a story out of which you've heard today. I feel a little bit like the guy with the groom behind the bride pushing and making sure all of the loose ends are tied up. But you've heard Tom talk about this morning, the overarching strategy of Southern and how with our addition of Southern Gas with the Southern Natural Gas Pipeline and our success at Southern Power, the things that we're doing in our Electric Operating Companies and the even addition of PowerSecure are all going to lengthening and strengthening our earnings profile for the future and actually diversify our risk profile at the same time. He talked about greater than 95% of income in 2021, it's expecting to come from the state regulated electric and gas utilities and our long term contracted businesses. That's who Southern is. Our strides have not changed. We're still the same company we've always been, we're little broader, we're little deeper, but same story is going to help support our regular, predictable, sustainable earnings growth as we move into the future and we think that's what our plan reflects today. I'm going to start today with a review, a quick review of quarterly earnings. We reported this morning; as…

Tom Fanning

Management

Yes, it's really just the notion that we have added there we are now we've been exceedingly hyper active in 2016. We have added that hangs together from a logic standpoint but the strategy I think is clear this energy infrastructure business that we are in as you've heard. When you look at it and you go and got it makes sense transparent and if anything with improved growth we've reduced risk, we're moving forward. I think that business is terrific when you look at our business model there is very little kind of new big placeholders in order to achieve. We really do have this now there is risk around it, I admit it. But that business model works I'm very proud of it.

Q - Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Management

For us just to kick it off on the Southern Power side the kind of rewind on the presentation a little bit. What kinds of ROEs, is there good rules down that we should be speaking about when you look at that capital plan and translating back to the earnings growth. Now, I know you guys provide its 12% earnings CAGR, you've provided, you can back into it, but I like to hear it from you guys I think about ROE or earnings?

Tom Fanning

Management

In round numbers you read about a 100 basis points onto it as compared to an integrative regulator return.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Management

So to say, have you taken you that 12% earned ROE at the utility for instance? You would say 13%.

Tom Fanning

Management

That we are adding a 100 basis points.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Management

Okay, but it goes to 10. There is the slide in the appendix I believe behind above the slide. I think it gives you idea about contract length because whatever IRR might be it’s going to see a function of contract length, how long it is. Longer term contracts we’ll have lower IRRs and then shorter contracts will have higher IRR.

Tom Fanning

Management

Every project has a unique hurdle rate. So don’t go and thinking that it’s one number. I’m giving you, for the portfolio, it’s about 100 basis points ROE as compared to the traditional electric utility business.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Management

Got it. And that’s an ROE, not in IRR?

Tom Fanning

Management

Yes.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Management

Sorry. I'll stick with the same subject. Looking at the year-over-year puts and takes, 2016, 2017, onwards, given the roll off in the solar ITCs, I know we've talked about it before, where do we stand today in terms of that ITC roll off 2016, 2017 and how do we think about the earnings contributions? Is that a good flatline number in 2017 going forward in terms of ITCs?

Tom Fanning

Management

Just what Buzz showed you? It would be somewhere. We think Southern Power is going to be what somewhere between 300 million, $330 million? Where’d Buzz go? And remember what we told you at other earnings call. When we show this enormous growth and ’16 CapEx is 4.4 billion, a big number. We said a lot of dedicated to ’17, that’s what just seeing. That’s why we don’t have the dividend anymore.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Management

Right, so just said differently, definitely good stable flat line number offer which to grow, there is not really?

Tom Fanning

Management

And in fact when you look at the growth of Southern Power and we expected the 1.5 billion deployment every year, it’s a nice ratable increase. We work very hard to make this thing in the fashion that we building our business model. In fact, both our businesses are. Southern Gas is the same way. If you really want to think about caveman kind of math, you’ve got a slug of capital at the growth business there and a slug of capital at the growth business there and that’s the way it works.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Management

Got it. One last higher level question for you. As you think about, you kind of effectively narrowed your growth range to the top-end. How do you think about the risk reduction of the business profile in tandem with that? So the question that comes to my mind is I suppose you’ve got some wood to chop in Mississippi for instance next year et cetera. How do you think about all the very straight that go into that to narrow the range ultimately?

Tom Fanning

Management

So right now, Anthony Wilson, where are you? Anthony right there, CEO of Mississippi Power. He can talk to you a little bit. We have already started some conversations. Remember, our relationship with virtually everybody we touches kind of real not discrete is continues. So we’ve already started, so I don’t want to front run a lot of stuff, but I would argue that this plan, I almost liken it to women’s gymnastics and the balance beam. It’s kind of hard to not this plan also balancing. I think this plan is robust to reasonable outcomes. Let’s get Greg and then, Ali, we will come to you.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks. Just a quick follow-up on that and then second question. So at a high level was increasing competition for these types of lower risk long-term contracted types of deals, right? You’re in that business now. Dominion’s there. Duke’s there. Con Ed’s there. NextEra has been there for years. So what competitive advantage are you bringing to the table that’s you’re able to execute these deals add hurdle rates look competitive when we hear anecdotal evidence all the time that the equity IRRs on these things are getting compressed pretty fast?

Tom Fanning

Management

Well, it’s simple. Because the best example I'm going to use is first Solar. When we think about us starting -- I think I've just done Fleischmann [ph] about this. Even when we started solar, we were actually very careful, we were almost pedantic sometimes. We don't rush and do fast and all that stuff. When we started on the solar effort, we started in conjunction with Ted Turner and we started developing relationship all over. We held Internal Solar Summit and we studied, and we studied and finally when we saw execution start to occur in the kind of vein that we enjoy, we started to move quickly and at scale. We developed relationship with First Solar where not only did we have kind of the relationship where they would develop and we would step in the operation, we also worked with them steadily on improving their development of power sales contracts in permitting and transmission. And so, we actually coached up worked with the folks that we developed and developed significant relationships. And First Solar has borne through for us and there is others. We're doing the same with Wind right now. If you have the advantage of having scale and of having an intimate understanding as to what it takes to step into a deal, the developers are going to be much successful, much more efficient and effective in what they do. We believe developing those relationships is where I started the slide that does matter, this is not a company run by a spreadsheet. You can't do that business with spreadsheet. You're going to hand up with a million different contracts with no ideas to how to administer them. We believe in risk management before we step into the contract and we think that: who are your big kind of wind guys going forward? Where are the big relationships you're working on?

Drew Evans

Management

So, we started with the Apex end the last year we've done another deal with them. NV Energy we just announced deal with and we have another wind partnered that we haven’t announced yet, but before the end of the year couple of more wind projects with another partner.

Tom Fanning

Management

Point there is we're not everything that everybody especially we go scale, we go to people that we can repeat the business model particularly focused on the quality of the power sales contracts in permitting.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

My second question switching gears just to Mississippi Power in Kemper, so you said that you're optimistic, you'll be moving to commercial operation there, can you tell us what the discreet steps are from here to there and then when you file the rate case next year, can you just explain us what do you -- what you're base line assumption is in terms of outcomes, it's a little bit complex, because you've wholesale rate base, retail rate base, stuff that was back to you -- can you comment on that?

Tom Fanning

Management

Let me give you the steps, in terms of -- I don't want to front run any rate case, we're going to file a rate case that when we'll file it, we'll describe it to you. Before we thought I really don't want to go there Craig [ph]. And what they've said so, they're really pretty clear, our estimate as we disclosed, our best estimate of COD and service as the end of November, we're producing electricity out of A; B comes online. We think we've learned a lot and A we'll move B through the add to gas clean up system, deliver syngas to the turbines. The turbines are actually running great on syngas and they actually blended it, we've run at 100% syngas, we do now all sorts of testing right now, so it's really going well. Our best belief is November 30th, I mean they can slide a week or two or whatever but the unknown is unknown as what we've always said to you. Assuming everything works our best gas at November 30th. Close on, we'll file essentially in accounting order that will us to defer cost from COD to final rates in place. It will defer cost and essentially create and accounting, we will do that with a commission. And then we want to demonstrate unlike some other kind of circumstances, we actually want to demonstrate performance on these units. So that when we do file and when we finally get an outcome, we can show that this thing works, used and useful. I think it's really important and I think we are going to be able to demonstrate that.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you.

Tom Fanning

Management

That's about all I want to go into. I don’t want to firm on rate case but whoever.

Ali Agha

Management

Ali Agha of SunTrust. Tom, two questions, first, when I look at your CapEx forecast for 2021, it comes down in the last few years, is it fair to say that the 5% EPS growth rate kind of follows that packing so it's more front end load and then slows down in the last couple of years?

Tom Fanning

Management

It's really pretty way below overtime and that’s what gives us great confidence about this. It's about 5% growth rate all the way through.

Ali Agha

Management

Okay.

Tom Fanning

Management

And here it's interesting about that growth rate when you look at that CapEx recall, whenever I just say about that are flattening EPS growth rate there was the debit I talked about all that’s gone, we have eliminated the debits, we have lose the curve off by investing in a growth business in gas and growth business in Southern Power, we have an newly especially in Sonat and we have growth opportunities on top of that. Anything material beyond what we are saying is in this plan and that was low response to the clean power plant at there. That’s amazing stuff. No kind of big assessment on some brand new environmental regulation which could occur depending on what administration comes in. We have got Southern Power at 1.5 billion. We just did a 4.5 billion. I actually feel good about where we are and would incorporate the slowing growth factor the CapEx is anything other than the absence of the response between power plant wouldn’t surprise me at all and in the future 2021, who know that we have a cleaning power plant and that was going to have to start adding from gas particularly in response of that. But it's not in the plan.

Ali Agha

Management

Okay. And my second question 2016 was a very active year for you in terms of acquisitions. As you plan your outlook through 2021, our acquisitions contemplated, you look at the state of the industry, you expect more consolidation, is Southern a player or are you distinct out of that and just executing on your current portfolio?

Tom Fanning

Management

Yes, you know I have answered the M&A question, things like for 100 years and the M&A question remains the same, what fundament of this plan is it doesn’t depend on anything like that. And so as we have said before we are big easier shop and then order for us to do any sort of acquisition is got to make sense from cost of capital and return on capital. This plan doesn’t need anything new now, we have suggested around the Sonat acquisition and our specific assets that we are considering we will see how that goes, we haven't really talked about that much ourselves. But that’s not an enormous big deal at least a size that we think is easily adjust and if it doesn’t happens we are still okay. In terms of other new deals, I think all we have done when you look at that asset, we created optionality. We are no more or less interested in M&A than we were before. And when you think about 2016 it looks like that there was a flurry of activity, it’s just so happen the opportunities arriving and down there they were. The one little bit of quick mover was AGL, the pipeline we’ve been talking about for about two years, and really it was interesting we could have continued on that course, but when AGL happen that gave us even a better set of cards in which to deal with pipeline transactions because now we move from the third or fourth largest consumer natural gas, now to the most important natural gas company in the United States I think. Now, PowerSecure is another one, in this PowerSecure again was not material in my sense excepted with strategically was important because when we started again looking at these kind of slowing and flagging sales of electricity, we can either just let it happen or try and play it off it. And I swear to you, I think our business model will make perfect sense on the customer premises, the customer don’t want to get involve in our business we think there is terrific capital deployment opportunity by marrying with these guys is, with customer reach oh and by the way when we did AGL natural set of company gas we doubled our customer reach. So, now we’re 4.5 million to 9 million. And they procure natural gas. You know what balloon uses natural gas and so have Southern Power, you have synergy with gas and then you have the reputation of financial and integrity of Southern Company. And channel count reach, there is tremendous synergies potential. Southern PowerSecure is no big right now, but it is a terrific valuable option. Yes, Andy.

Andy Levi

Management

Hi, good morning. It's Andy Levi from Avon Capital. Just on the gas side, the 8% to 10% growth rate that you put out there and that’s earnings per share or net income or income? We just break that down a little bit like for Sonat kind of where the starting point is on net income and how much that could grow on an annual basis. And then for AGL, does that growth rate of net income also include cost synergies from Georgia operations in just general in that 8% to 10% growth?

Tom Fanning

Management

Let me hit the simple.

Andy Levi

Management

I want to double count the cost savings.

Tom Fanning

Management

Remember I describe Sonat as an annuity, what it looks like. But remember I said it’s an annuity that has an option for future growth that’s how I alluded to Sonat. So, most of the otherwise intrinsic growth is coming out of safety related pipeline replacement program.

Drew Evans

Management

Yes. Andy it’s like -- it’s all in there, okay. So, to the degree that they get any cost savings from the merger that they could fall between Georgia Power and really Georgia, AGL and Southern Gas enjoys it. That’s only the opportunity is where we have any overlap. Two degree Georgia Power yes those savings are Southern Gas gets those savings those get reflected in those numbers. I can give you any specific number there because we’re still under process or determining what those could be.

Andy Levi

Management

And can you talk about the level of cost savings on even it's kind of a broad level how much should we kind of incorporated over the next two years to three years. And then Sonat what is the starting point of that income?

Drew Evans

Management

I’m sorry.

Andy Levi

Management

For Sonat what is the starting point of net income?

Drew Evans

Management

So, I think either Mark Lantrip or -- can talk more ratably about potential savings here or even Ron himself.

Mark Lantrip

Management

So, the savings that we expect to get from the merger for AGL are baked into the numbers now were midway I would say we're about third way through the integration process and so we will go run it will run through 2018 we're just now beginning to work for some integration issues around the systems we are integrating as much as we can operationally realize this is gas company not a electric company so you don’t have the same benefit but you would have by bringing in the same kind of operational characteristics but they are some in Georgia and we are going through holiday and lows right now and figuring out how to do those things better and we will enjoying. And there is really to variable to synergies one is just as straight over old related synergy and Mark those are going as expected or we did better. The second is top line synergies and those are going a little bit better and I think about bloom and other things. I don’t remember the number on that so it sounds about that.

Art Beattie

Management

Little less than that.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

[Indiscernible]

Mark Lantrip

Management

Yes, that's right I mean most of the synergies for AGL and Southern it will be on a shared services really and things like IT, some HR, some of accounting beyond there. There will be some small synergies in the Georgia territories.

Michael Lapides

Management

All right, Tom. Thank you for taking the question and hosting the day. Michael Lapides with Goldman here. You've given pretty robust net income guidance for Southern Power and Southern Gas. Just kind of back of the on blow map when implied given your 5% overall in EPS growth pretty low growth that the electric utility. Can you just talk about how you expect EPS growth and rate base growth at the electric subsidiaries? What you're formally expecting proposed as a percentage growth. Do you think rate base growth and EPS growth moved up more step with each other or there are any differentiation there, and if so what?

Mark Lantrip

Management

Rate base growth I believe is certainly going to be lower obviously. We are going to quit adding the year ago complete the global projects by 19 and 20 so the curve on that goes down the other items in the budget would be normal transmission distribution maintenance project improvements for customer service around that. The additional environmental projects most of that related to ash pond, it's included in there some of those are still preliminary in terms of their estimate so it reflects what we know today in terms of those dollars. But those could move around a bit but that's really where there growth rate is coming from in the electric outflows. What they are trying to do is to offset that capital program they put in place in electric operating companies to mitigate that would cost and flows so that they can hold the price down to customers at a reasonable level at or below inflation.

Tom Fanning

Management

But it is pretty clear the operating headers are going at much slower rate and math is really pretty simple if you backend in the manner they are going slower now what is excellent is this response to the clean power plant Clean Power Plan. Pretty clear to me that the generation portfolio of America will change and we’ll just see how that goes, don’t want to front run how that’s going to happen certainly not in front of this political season. But there again, if you start seeing things like cash generation showing up in the 20s at this place otherwise either eroding or slow growing base load or CTs necessary to meet intermittency, it appears to me gas is going to have to grow. That’s not in the plan.

Paul Patterson

Management

Paul Patterson, I wanted to ask you about Kemper. One of the commissioners in Mississippi is asking whether it might dispatch or not production costs look like they are higher and what have you. Can you give us a flavor for what you think the production cost, just pure production costs for saving gas will be? And then number two, you mentioned I think a demonstration for used and useful. It seems like there’s substantial ramp, when should we think about that what your plan in terms of being able to show that it is used and useful? What time I guess, time period?

Tom Fanning

Management

Look, I think as we move through the start-up process, as we not over dominate normally expected to start-up process, we think it moves beautifully. Like for example when A went through the asset gas cleanout system, remember that was one of the big issue went through it right away, went through it first time. Look, I think we’re going to be able to demonstrate using useful very easily. This plant is going to work, it is working. And so now we get B on and we integrate. Remember what we always said the first things hasn’t been as much as an issue, we’re only talk this is years ago and how one of the big risk with enormous plan was the integration of a whole lot of different systems. Now we were combined segment three different systems, this one has something like ’14. So they’re being integrated, actually that’s going very well expected. I think the used and useful collection is going to be demonstrated in between DOD and when we file the rate case and actually through the rate case. It will continue to improve it performance, I think pretty dramatically over the year, we’ll be able to demonstrate that this during that time frame. I think we’ll be able to demonstrate that, I think we follow data around availability and other things. Kim could tell you more about that. But if you want, you look at the file and we just made an informational filing, Anthony here a couple weeks ago, we’ll be able to demonstrate. Now with respect to the energy, the energy is variable and it depends on whole host of factors included in the off take of what is CO2 valued at, remember that valued at index of the price of oil. And I think in the past and other earnings call, I don’t see any reason why this is change. But at 100 bucks of barrel, I think this thing was ordered, I think we produced energy in the low $1, $1.25 something like that. With oil at around 50 bucks, I seem to remember was about 260, 270 per million BTU. Now natural gas, so here the other thing, the energy that comes off of Kemper is going to be much more stable. It’s not going to be as volatile as natural gas. We are already seeing natural gas pop up. What’s the latest? So you tell me, there is the host of factors selling forward.

Steve Fleishman

Management

Hi Tom, Steve Fleishman, Just one question, I guess just following on the Kemper who has couple of reports, updates and has something about improvement projects that you'd like to do, could you talk a little about what those are?

Tom Fanning

Management

Sure, engineer thing engineers. There's really kind of two things. Along the vein and in fact a lot of, a lot of, many of the cost increases we've had along the way through construction which improved on the original design. Or I would say put a valve here or I would say had another duplicative system over here. So, along the way we had added to the process. They've identified things right now that we believe we will add even after COD and before filing or even into the next year. It's just different things and really the idea is kind of two fold, one is to improve the immediate performance of the plant, really going to Paul's question, that goes to what would be the availability out of the box and how can we perform it? And the second point really goes to a sustainable question. Whenever you have a prop for example we tripped the gas turbine over the weekend, well it wasn't because it wasn't running well, and since here we're going through a bunch of regime of tests, that we switched between -- remember this could be a dual field plan, and we switched between syngas and natural gas, blah, blah, blah, blah, and when we switched to natural gas, it trips some logic and the computer code, okay, so we take it down, fix it and improve it. Other things we can do along the way that less than the frequency of those kinds of events. That's what we're talking about.

Steve Fleishman

Management

And then I guess is there any kind of scale size of those or it is just to be….

Tom Fanning

Management

Haven't disclosed them, but I wouldn't now.

Art Beattie

Management

we have not put any numbers add on that Steve, we're still evaluating what those could be and certainly it has to go towards operational improvement of the plan, safety of the plan, those are the priorities that we're putting forward at this time.

Steve Fleishman

Management

[Indiscernible]

Art Beattie

Management

I'm not going to comment.

Tom Fanning

Management

We have included we think reasonable estimates around all these things in our plant and we think our plan is robust to any reasonable outcome that we can see.

Steve Fleishman

Management

And then just one following up question on the Southern Power kind of part of the investment plan, so with a 1.5 billion a year, just can you give us -- I think you said Tom that you think it's a conservative number and it could be a lot higher but it's really hard to know what that number is going to be so maybe just a little more color on how we should think about that number being reasonable number over the period?

Tom Fanning

Management

I think it's a reasonable number. The ebbs and flows around that number, the pluses and minuses. So, in the last two years, we did 2.5 billion and 4.5 billion round numbers and now we're going to down to 1.5 billion, well. Could we do more? Sure. It kind of goes to some of the other questions people raised and that is, what is the IRR that's available out there? Under what conditions can you do it? Will there be opportunities, bigger than a 1.5 billion? Sure. Which ones do we want to do? We're in a carry forward position on tax credits, that's no secret. And so we always have to assess our IRRs for any project based on the time weighted value of cash flow. We think the best estimate we have right now is a 1.5 billion per year going forward. And that's what we've got in the model. If there's something upside to that, yes, potentially we'll see. Are there downsides to that? Sure. But that's what we think is a right number.

Jim von Riesemann

Management

Tom, Jim von Riesemann from Mizuho. Can you talk a little bit about your thinking around ESCOs and how that business model has evolved from the late '90s, early 2000s to today, energy service companies?

Tom Fanning

Management

Yes. Okay. Okay now what makes sure what kind of things start there.

Jim von Riesemann

Management

PowerSecure what's different today versus back in the late 90s early?

Tom Fanning

Management

Absolutely, okay this is not the -- we are do about this a little bit. Who was it somebody in summer we got to recapture the word service, okay. But when we take it my having had the scarves of the SO energy services business that is not what we are doing. Now PowerSecure provides terrific service to customers, all right. I am down plating services but these are not split to say is deal. This is not some crazy variable boy I hope it works kind of same. This is return on and return of capital we covered over the life of the contract with minimal to know few risk. It's not the old ESCOs of the 80s, and 90s, okay, not what it is. This is a program that we are putting place that will replicate what we are doing in Southern Power, it is energy infrastructure in this case it is distributed energy infrastructure.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Where is the IP?

Sidney Hinton

Management

We own the IP this infrastructure that we are doing today is we are not assimilating other people solutions and driving out some alternative financing package. We only happy around that these are our solutions reengineered gone out long this Fortune 500 accounts with, so we are really in rich position to bring value to the table.

Tom Fanning

Management

Sidney, give us just a quick dimensioning of how many Fortune whatever, whatever, whatever…

Sidney Hinton

Management

We are five of the top 25 Fortune 500 accounts and that may not sound impressive because we have had no balance sheet. So we had to have a lot of happy, where in the just as accounting -- when Southern Company instantly solve that issue first, we sort of eight of the top 25 a grocery change and again goes back, as a counterparty we want to get credit for us. But very, very rich in IP and that's how we won so many large accounts. So the top data centers, it's should be stunning, we're not allowed to disclose, we'll be stunning the number one they were in with.

Tom Fanning

Management

And I know we are talking a lot of that that show it's a strategic option, this is now a big player right now in Southern Company's earnings. But we think with the way of technology is revolving, we think the way customers behaving, energy infrastructure on their premises we think maybe particularly important, this is our small bid, our options on playing more and more offset otherwise low sale.

Mike Weinstein

Management

Thanks Tom. Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. While back to Georgia regulators had always expressed interest in new nuclear beyond [indiscernible], I am just wondering in light of the settlement they came out, how was that settlement shifted or how is it shifted, what's the new thinking now on following new peer?

Tom Fanning

Management

I think the answer to that question really centers on what untimely come down from congress with respect to any sort of price or cost of carbon implied into the nation's future generation portfolio. If you believe there will be a price or cost of carbon implied in the United States, nuclear immediately becomes really important I mean really important, because all of that said total starts to erode faster. Gas has a really important place, but it has a little bit of feeling. You are going to have build new in the future, now is it in the 20, probably in the 30s and beyond. As an option to becomes really important, but I think you’re talking probably in the third. Did I get your question?

Mike Weinstein

Management

Regulators in Georgia, as a result of segment process to be indicated or thinking at all.

Tom Fanning

Management

I don’t think, so I think, the State of Georgia has been terrific through this whole process. Really I have Obama Administration and Congress for haven’t say. Department of energy have our new that Ernie Moniz who is the best Energy Statutory we’ve ever had. They have been resolute in supporting Vogtle through with construction and I think we’ll continue to have a good showing there. I think whether it is Clinton or Trump going forward, you will still see support out of the administration, America needs nuclear they all stop. Now, we have terrific track record to talk about on Vogtle 3 and 4 the fact that number one, we've settled the litigation. We’ve improved the performance of the contractors on the site and now we have pending commission approval, a resolution on prudence at Vogtle, terrific positive stuff. All that does is solidify, what has always been a constructed posture by the state, the commission, the governor, the general assembly anything else in Georgia. Does that change their view on the future? No.

Art Beattie

Management

The one thing on the question, go back to that. Through this integrated resource plan, they've preserved to option at Stuart County, allowing us to collect $99 million over the next three to five years and perfecting that option. So, they have preserve given an outcome that happens on see clean power plant and/or calls to carbon. I preserve that option for State of Georgia.

Tom Fanning

Management

Yes. All it did is it just made it more real. You got here. Let’s get some as ask question first.

Paul Debbas

Management

Paul Debbas from Value Line. How much re-contracting risk is there a Southern Power and what happens if you get to the point, where you can renew or extent the contract?

Tom Fanning

Management

Well, the data point, we try to use to eliminate that question, we watch that right hawk -- is this notion of 90% of our capacity is covered over, it was about 10 years. So that’s how much re-contracting risk there is. We believe the contract that are expiring our largely gas higher contract. So we think there will be a market there. The variance with respect to this plan is not significant. Just make sure, I got you too guys, anyone else, so I just want to other folk’s person.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Tom, this is a follow up on that. Are your Southern Power plants fully paid for by the time initial contract rose up.

Tom Fanning

Management

I’m sorry.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Are your Southern Power plants fully paid for by the time the first contract goes up or do you relay on some other contractor?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I would say the significant amount of the original investment is paid off or PPA period conditional but this fully paid off here some level of free cash flow, it goes back to pay that investment maybe the renewal asset a lot of that.

Tom Fanning

Management

Renewal is a really reach cash flow going forward.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

You’ve initially Vogtle will be going to be 12% rate increase, now it’s 6 to 7, where is the delta there that’s kind of time decide just interest rates?

Tom Fanning

Management

Sure, we disclose, it's actually a number of things, production tax credits, we are giving a full allocation before it was going to be split up. We've got loan guarantees that weren’t assured and actually our performance on the loan guarantees has been much better than we expected. There were significant parts of the first contract if you remember when we first entered into this contract there was some expectation of inflation and in fact some expectations may have been in excess of 4% to 5% as inflation did not show its head, as measured by certainly index, it defused us both between the contractor and Georgia Power to fit. What was otherwise a variable index and so we fix them to our advantage. That's what the delta is.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

My question is on ratings, do you know how long would you forgive you to covere as a negative outlook and also see operating targets for the whole co and Southern Company Gas?

Tom Fanning

Management

I didn’t hear your question. Can you ask again?

Unidentified Analyst

Management

How long it will take or how long will you get you through the get rid of the negative outlook?

Tom Fanning

Management

I'm sorry I'm absolutely not understanding you.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Alright, what's the negative outlook on reduce.

Tom Fanning

Management

The negative outlook I think you want to ask. I don’t know we need to work with that.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, we've always been founds up of those gas and retailers and everything which is going on and every new transaction that we go through we've hopped all the agencies about it and so we are in constant communication about what our strategies are and where we are going so again it's up to them to evaluate that we're certainly pushing to get the changes put in place but that's certainly up to them. We think fundamentally over the past year our risk posture has changed for the better. For the questions I might go please repeat to them in it. I'll go Julien, then Andy and then Mike here we go. Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Management

Just going back to Mike's question from before a little bit on Georgia. SCANA opted to pursue a new tax election recently why not follows to given that it seems like it reduces burden of the backend? And then separately and probably more importantly Fleur [ph] talked about our hiring ramp broadly. Should we expect the update going aforementioned of the schedules at a certain point in time again this is more of a procedural kind of issue?

Tom Fanning

Management

So the 174 is a really an excess thing while let me hit that one first it is the 174 tax deduction. You are we've been very clear about our belief that Camper County is absolutely eligible for the deductions. And so that's where our primary focused has to the extent SCANA is successful on making that claim we certainly will follow through on global but we believe I'm not going to comment on summer that's their business. We absolutely believe that the structure of those research and experimental tax deductions are certainly suitable for Kemper and that is where we have focused. Steve, do you want to hit the schedule or Paul or either one of you?

Steve Kuczynski

Management

I think comments with regard to schedule, there is always ongoing evaluation of the schedule we don’t not anticipate any changes any way, but certainly there will be variations on some milestones between here and there and it’s normal part of construction?

Tom Fanning

Management

There you talk a little bit about the learning curve, the benefits of going 2, 3 and then 4, the placement we just made.

Steve Kuczynski

Management

So just to give an anecdote on what’s been realize as you go from what is for the next our largest module CA20 which was set few years back and unit three, I think is about 16 hours or so from lift to actually sets and it took 58 minutes do it on unit four. And it’s just remarkable improvements just in quality and doing things in second time and so we’re trying to leverage that and pretty much everything that we go do, so unit four is actually staffed with less people and getting higher productivity based on that.

Tom Fanning

Management

And then one more comment on balance of the plant.

Steve Kuczynski

Management

Yes, balance of the plan is going very, very well. So cooling towers are in, turbine building is going to start to show to be close here soon, all the structures stills in and focused just remains on Nuclear Island but feel really good about the progress. But particularly the learnings that we see from three to four and SCANA sees the same learnings.

Tom Fanning

Management

You made a comment about ramping up. We have already got a thousand people more this year at Vogtle 3 and 4, so that ramping up already occurred for us.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

One quick, a little detail on the ROE from the Southern Power piece, if I look just the guidance, I need 10% and 12% net income or what have you about 40 million a year growth rate top of the range 12%. If I think about 1.5 billion if we’re talking about, is it right to assume about a 40% equity layer there because when I trying you that math, it comes out somewhat less than a 13% ROE. That is why I’m trying to get at is it IRR or an ROE that we are getting like a 6% to 7% number?

Tom Fanning

Management

Bill, do want to go after that. I think it just some of the tax impacts that impact Southern Power specifically.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Yes. Okay. I think actually a question for earlier. We are talking about an average ROE overtime exceeding the retail businesses. I tend to think about that really an hour, a couple of two hour. Both return in any given year of the business, it’s going to be a function of the types of capacity technology and so on. That premium over retail isn’t overtime return, I average already in time in IRR. So I think the front in the new investments maybe we’ll less than that, let me greater that later on and that’s give us some mixture of the project technology to bring added. So that’s the quick answer why your math has come in a little bit les.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

From a leverage perspective 40% is a good number use still.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Yes. I mean, we’re not levering up Southern Power to achieve a result if that is the question. Andy?

Andy Levi

Management

Andy Levi from Avon Capital. Just a few financial questions, so Southern Power is growing 8% to 12%, I know 12% a year, excuse me. The gas companies are growing 8% to 10% a year. But I don’t see for the core utility, electric utility, how much should that be growing here?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Yes, there is on slide in my group where due to the percentage of the 5% that those range, those concentric ranges. So you can back into it that way. I believe what you're seeing the net income growth over that timeframe would be just a bit above 2%.

Andy Levi

Management

And then on the financing plan, I see, I guess that'll be [indiscernible] lease up equity that's you're going to put out there, what is the target equity ratio at Southern Company that you're targeting?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well right now we're in the mid-30s and by the '21 timeframe it'll creep up a bit little taller between 35 and 40.

Andy Levi

Management

And at Southern Company.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Southern Company.

Michael Lapides

Management

Michael Lapides with Goldman. Two questions, one are we seeing a structural shift in the ability to build significant gas pipelines from this country for nimbi regions, good old fashioned Nimbi citing, permeating etc. what do we do about that and how do you manage through that as you think about Southern Company gas growth rate? That's first kind of question although it probably has subsets. The other one is the one place we don't really see Southern involved is in independent electric transmission outside of the traditional operating companies, can you just talk about that business in general.

Tom Fanning

Management

Two very interesting questions. And you know what, I would -- let's differentiate pipe. Look, we make it our business especially since I've been in this role to engage constructively with the environmental community. So I'm talking about Sierra Club and NRDC, and ADF, Union of Concerned Scientists and States and everybody else. They have had an important voice and how America is thinking about evolving its generation fleet. And I think we've had very constructive conversations. And I think listening to them is important because I think that does help drive a lot of positivity that comes out of the administration, certainly depending on who wins and all that. So, it's kind of important to not only use our own lands but look to the lands of others and how that may impact where this future is going because it certainly has had an effect on coal. It has an effect I think on gas going forward in a more important way. But I think it is irrefutable that we need gas today more importantly as coal wind down and it's hard to build nuclear and we add more intermittent resources in form of renewable. I'd make that point. So, from the challenge of building pipes, I want to break that into two different ideas, one is pipes required to support what I think will be the natural evolution of the generation fleet of America is going to be easier to do, then pipes required to export gas through LNG facilities. So, totally different ballgame I think on part of the environmentalist community because at one hand pipes require to build new gas plant that will enhance the retirement of coal or sub plant what is otherwise a slow growing nuclear fleet America or perhaps the case of some other companies, that are disappearing nuclear fleet, they're going to need more pipes. We can't do it all with energy efficiency in just renewable. So, we're going to need those pipes in order to handle this transition, very clear. The question on pipes for export, totally different question, So as it's a terrific question and may we have been very -- we try to be very thoughtful about that, I mean when go this believe you should think about as our believe are grounded this is one of the believe that we didn’t showed you. But there is a difference between price of export price to require to enhance transition of the fleet. Did I hit that one for you?

Andy Levi

Management

Yes.

Tom Fanning

Management

The other question was?

Andy Levi

Management

Independent electric transmission, just it's a one thing we don’t see Southern Company.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

So here is the -- and I think there is a generally well-known I am going to stay away from anything confidential, but you must know that there are lots of win deals particularly, one of the challenge of the win, I said this before is that when requires -- when this best located where they are few people and therefore you need to move the win resource necessary to where the load centers are, okay. Solar not like that so we can wave where the people are, generally speaking. When we think about there are lots of potential deals in the United States that depend on long haul contracted transmission systems in order to comfort the development of big scale win resources the United States. If there was a contract or transmission which gave us our degree of certainty when we think about merchant's model, Southern Company does not like the merchant model. But if there was a long term contract that supported the development of transmission that probably goes hand-in-hand with the development of large scale win resources, yes we would be open to that. But it's a chicken and the egg thing. So this is very difficult business, number one in order to develop long halt contracted transmission, not merchant transmission contracted transmission you got to make sure your line up at the same time, this big scale that you need big scale win in order to justify building a transmission line. You need a lineup that win resources would a thing for the energy and when you need to be able to handle all other different state issues that you tried to build that transmission lock. Are we open to it, sure, it would happen to built consistent where our business model. Okay. There are lots of proposals out there and we talk all the time, hard to do with deal though.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

I will just throw this one out there so if Trump does win, any thoughts on kind of energy policy aspects anything that would matter to you guys?

Tom Fanning

Management

Well, listen we have made it point to be involved in both campaigns in terms of just breathing them on what we believe the correct energy policy is and I think that will be a little careful. I am cheering EEI, so I want to -- I am talking specifically from my book right now, not EEI, okay. One of the most important guys in developing energy policy right now in the Trump campaign, it's been representative from the State of North, Kevin Cramer. We have made our business to have a relationship with Kevin Cramer before. He got into this role in the Trump campaign. Kevin also visited as did a Clinton's representative, the business round table recently. And I think, Kevin is right on the money. He is the guy that is faithful to the Southern dogma of all the above. I think he is reasonable and I think he is the guy we absolutely can work with, he is a great public survey, very thoughtful and understand the importance of all the above in Americas future, he is a terrific guy.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

I believe that Southern Company was ones the first or second largest consumer full among utilities. So you probably have a significant ash ponds issue. Could you elaborate a little bit more about that in terms of how you recovering that, how many years you’re thinking about and maybe also where you are on the learning curve and dealing with this?

Tom Fanning

Management

And Paul, I'll get you to comment. Paul is -- because of the Georgia jurisdiction kind of the most advanced on this issue. All of our companies, Alabama Power, Mississippi Power, Gulf Power Georgia have all been very proactive on this issue and dealing with each of our commission. And the best way to kind of talk this through is with Paul. But I’ll say, in fact, I said two years ago in Annual Meeting that we would effectively close all of our ash ponds in a proactive way. Paul going forward and I’ll just start off with two kind of again principle or part of our dogma and that is any ash pond near water system or river or something like that we would remove. Otherwise, we will use advance technology and he can talk better than technology to close in place. It’s not just cash it’s advanced technology. And you just got rolling about APB at Georgia that he'll think about.

Paul Bowers

Management

So, Barry, when you look at the ash pond programs specifically for Georgia. We had a 29 ash ponds of which all want be regulated by the state EPD, which gives more stringent regulation regime and they have on the national level. National level what is that 18 of our ash ponds have been regulated now it’s not. Our regulatory standpoint think about cost compliance, you have stay through that’s allow you to comply or you have to comply an allocate costs back in turn to recovery. It is Federal Trade Commission for those things or happening. We are removing all the ash located next upon in rivers or one away from rivers and we also or putting the advance engineering technology to ensure no ground source water to go down strain, so we’re contain from an advance engineering.

Tom Fanning

Management

For example, subterranean barriers things like that.

Paul Bowers

Management

And that is also cover in the new role coming out of Georgia. But all those advance technology is going to be influent. Art, did you want to comment on that recovery?

Arthur Beattie

Management

Yes, Barry, a lot of these assets or part of asset retirement obligations. So the customer speaks for them over the life of the assets. So those are accelerate reductions to rate based overtime originally begin to accelerate pay the cash out to do this, it’s actually an increase to rate base. We call a capital investment rather than CapEx because that’s distinguished with this try to make that they both active same and better.

Tom Fanning

Management

You should understand that am I try to coming out when I did, as I did. With really granted and nothing more than looking after the customer first, they can sure the community is better off, because where there, we take the obligation of safety and environmental the extremely seriously and we’re proactive on that. That’s why I came out way for anybody has become a hot topic. We always put the community for us and we think this is an important obligation. We take it seriously and we have a great constructive relationship in our states. Mark, you would be the next biggest. Do you have anything you want to say or is that covered?

Unidentified Analyst

Management

From padding, how are you thinking about the 5% growth rate projection in terms of sensitivity to the loan growth projections 1% was a 100 just higher moreover you see.

Mark Crosswhite

Management

Yes, and that's part of our resilient fleet comment. Basically we know that the Opcos [ph] are going to have trouble in top line growth and see over to 1% industrials will pay a large role in there because they move around so much at least in the negative fashion this year but as we look at it the companies are going to exercise additional capital investments to serve their customers better and try to offset that with cost management to keep a price under control. So we believe our 5% growth rate is true to that scenario.

Tom Fanning

Management

You ask the question about its higher. Yes, what here again I'll go back to my comment and it's kind of hard to knock about the balance seen here what is really translates to would be the kind of an acceleration of new generation, kind of where you would see it first. Otherwise it would be an effect on O&M that would be how two effects would be I still think there is upside and downsides around this 5% that's why we didn’t say 4 to 6 and else we said 5 and would kind of hang with that. Yes there is some upside there. What else you want to talk about. I saw the Atlanta Falcon beat the Green Bay Packers yesterday. Matt Ryan, he was awesome anything else? Okay, will listen let me disclose like this we know that was an investment of time on your part. Thank you so much and thank you for being loyal shareholders. Those of you that aren’t I hope you are now I think it's a heck of a story and I'm so proud to represent this team that's team in the industry so many opportunities to go forward in the path and look forward in the future in a positive way. Thank you very much. I think we've got one stead up at here it's being stead up. Yes, stay for lunch we'll all hang around.

Aaron Abramovitz

Management

Thanks everyone.