Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Mr. Jim King, you may begin your conference.
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)
Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 10, 2012
$65.71
-3.06%
Same-Day
-3.07%
1 Week
+0.93%
1 Month
+1.12%
vs S&P
-1.40%
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Mr. Jim King, you may begin your conference.
Jim King
Management
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter conference call. With me this morning are Jim Hagedorn, our Chairman and CEO, as well as Dave Evans, our Chief Financial Officer. After their prepared remarks, Jim, Dave and other members of the management are here to take your questions. In the interest of time though, we ask that you keep your questions to one and to one follow-up. If you have other unanswered questions, I am glad to spend time with you one on one after the call. With that, I want to move on to today’s call. I want to remind everyone that our comments will contain forward-looking statements. As such, actual results may differ materially. Due to that risk, Scotts Miracle-Gro encourages you to review the risk factors outlined in our Form 10-K and our most recent 10-Q, which was filed yesterday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As a reminder this call is being recorded and an archived version of the call will be available on our website. And if we make any comments related to non-GAAP financial measures that we have not covered in the press release, we will provide those items on the website as well. With that, I want to turn the call over to Jim Hagedorn to discuss our performance.
James Hagedorn
Management
Thanks, Mr. Jim King, and good morning everyone. We are going to take a slightly different approach today than in the past. I am going to set the tone for the call and then Dave will follow with a look at the numbers. From there, I will come back and share thoughts about the state of the business and where we are headed in 2013 and beyond. As a precursor, I will tell you now that we remain committed to our consumer-focused strategy and believe our category continues to have solid long term growth potential. That’s why category growth was our number one objective for this year. We spent hard this year and made big bets to drive growth, and you will get no apologies from me for that decision. But I will say that the growth we achieved was expensive, too expensive. What we are seeing right now is that lawn and garden is performing more in line with other consumer industries and I don’t see that changing in a significant way until the consumer gets healthier. So while we believe our consumer focused strategy is still the right long term approach to drive shareholder value, the pace at which we invest behind that strategy in the near-term will be adjusted to reflect the current reality. We said in the press release that we want to return the business to the level of profitability we saw just two years ago. Let me elaborate. While we are not going to unwind our investments, we will dial some of them back. And although we decided to forego pricing in 2012, it will be a part of our plan for 2013. And given our relatively pessimistic view of the consumer market place right now, and our ability to grow within that marketplace,…
David Evans
Management
Thanks, Jim, and good morning everyone. We obviously have a lot to cover this morning, so I’ll run quickly through the results before turning it back to Jim. To keep my comments limited, I’ll primarily focus on areas where we saw the greatest discrepancy from the beginning of your expectations, principally global consumer net sales and consolidated gross margin rate. On a year-to-date basis consolidated net sales are flat for the quarter and up 1% year-to-date. Excluding changes in FX rate, sales are up about 1% and 2% for the quarter and year-to-date, respectively. Sales for our global consumer segment are up 1% for the quarter and flat year-to-date. The U.S. market represents about 80% of year-to-date global consumer sales and to understand U.S. consumer sales for the third quarter you have to start with the second quarter when you recall the season got off to a strong start in March. Weather in the North and Northeast was unusually favorable in March, principally in the second half of the month and POS increased nearly 30% over 2011 for the month. At the end of March, POS was up 15% on a fiscal year basis. Because all the increase in POS occurred in the second half of March and because consumer demand in those weeks was so extreme, retailer inventories finished March significantly depleted. This drove a temporary but large gap between POS growth and our sales growth at the end of March. At that time, we recognize that strong consumer purchases in March included some weather-driven pull forward of demand and expected consumer purchase activity to moderate back to our full-year expectation by end of April. After our second quarter conference call in early May, we witnessed a series of negative POS weeks that carried all the way in to…
James Hagedorn
Management
Thanks, Dave. I’m going to take about 10 minutes to share with you our thoughts entering 2013 and beginning the planning process for 2014. I’ll start by addressing the elephant in the room. I recognize that many of you may be frustrated with our performance this year, especially coming off a disappointing result in 2011. We are too. What you’re not going to hear from me today is a bunch of excuses. Entering the season, I told you that category growth was our number one goal and we believed our strategy would be successful against that goal. In an effort to jumpstart the category, we opted to forgo a price increase and added $40 million to our advertising budget. These were big bets. While I believe they were the right bets given our goal, they obviously did not payoff to the degree we had expected. What is now clear is that the lawn and garden is similar to household products, health and beauty, and other consumer categories. Growth is damn hard to get right now and we’re not going to chase it. That’s obviously the change from what we discussed in the past. So, how have we arrived at that conclusion? The lawn and garden industry has always proved to be resilient during economic downturns and that’s what we saw in 2009 and 2010. And that once again had proved that point. When the economy had an extreme impact on many consumer companies, we were thriving. We had record sales, record profits and margins, we were moving in the right direction and we were generating significant amounts of cash. Entering 2011, we believed this trend would continue. While we actually fell backwards last year, it was easy to point to the fact that weather and changes in certain retail merchandising…
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Alice Longley with Buckingham Research.
Alice Longley - Buckingham Research
Analyst
My question is about what you said about the industry growth and you compared it to other consumer staples categories. It looks to me like I think you said you think the industry growth this year is flat and last year it was down 4% to 5%. And assuming this is sort of normal weather year because weather was good at the beginning of the year and not so good later. You look at the -- it’s an easy comp, you look at the two years together, it looks like the industry is actually shrinking a little bit. And the concern to me is that maybe the affluent consumer has shifted back to using LawnService since the recession and the non-affluent consumer just doesn’t need to do lawn and garden work. And you’ve got a structural deterioration in the industry because people don’t need to do lawn and garden they need to buy toilet paper and detergent, but they don’t need to do lawn and garden. So, could you comment on that?
James Hagedorn
Management
Yes. I feel there is a lot there that you said. And I want to start out by saying that when we made the decision last year to hold pricing and jack the advertising, I think you were the one that said, Jim, we are in a recession. And I just wanted to say maybe you were right, okay. And I’m not sure if you’ve ever heard that before from me, Alice. I think when we look at this year and we look at other consumer goods companies where if you back out pricing in their, I’m going to call it old world markets which is I am starting to feel like, call it North America and Europe, where you’re seeing unit volume declines in sort of other consumer staples. I think that’s what our comments were referring to is that we’re seeing that. Certainly, we’ve seen reasonable performance in our LawnService business with, I’m going to say a slight increase in consumer count, but generally -- I’m going to start by saying part of what the LawnService business had done is what the Americans need to do now. Which is run the business, a lot more efficiency and the ability to make money on kind of slowly increasing customer count is really the story I think behind where we’ve been with LawnService. And I’m going to say, exceptional management that’s occurring in that business and has been. So that business is growing, but they have not seen a decline that the other business is. And I’m not sure I quite go to the fact that everybody is rushing out to LawnService, but it is certain that something is happening with the consumer, especially sort of in the second half of our lawn and garden season. The good news to us is that we’re not seeing a shift to private label. What we think the data is telling us is that, if people are stressed, they will just step out of the market for a year and they won’t do anything. Now, I know that Barry and Jim Lyski in the team, we need to work on that to keep the incentive high on the consumer to even when they are feeling stretched, that they need to use lawn and garden. But I think the reality is that’s what we’re seeing, is that the business is showing a sort of behavior like other consumer goods companies that we-re not losing -- that they’re not shifting down to lower priced products. That they’re tending to leave the category and step back in, and we’ve talked about this before, and step back in next year. So, I don’t know if that answers the question, but I think that that’s kind of what we are seeing.
Alice Longley - Buckingham Research
Analyst
Well, if we’ve got crummy volume prospects, what kind of pricing are you talking about for next year. Is it two to three or is it four to five?
James Hagedorn
Management
We’re going to say low single-digits. That’s I think -- we’re still to some extent in the line review process, and so I don’t really want to go beyond that.
Alice Longley - Buckingham Research
Analyst
And then finally are you buying shares aggressively, if you are going to help shareholders?
James Hagedorn
Management
At the moment our focus is going to be on getting leverage down. We have a open authorization from the board to buy shares and when we feel the time is right, we will do so.
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Olivia Tong with Bank of America.
Olivia Tong - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Analyst
I guess, first question, you know you said you should be able to return to where you were at two years ago. But you also said that category growth expectations are lower and you won’t be investing in advertising as much to ‘chase growth’. So, I guess looking forward, how much of this decline that came this year you think is short-term volatile weather trends and things like that. And how much of this is sort of structural problems and you said that 2013 should see a significant rebound, how can you move that fast to fix what sounds to me like there are some structural problems within the business? Thanks.
James Hagedorn
Management
Okay. I’m going to say actually relatively easy, expense control. If you look at our outlook really for the planning period, we just finished the board meeting and in fact we’re still at the site where we met with the board. We’re effectively budgeting no organic growth for the period, okay. So, that actually makes at least the sort of solution of saying how you’re going to do it pretty easy for us. It’s going to be sort of expense control and getting our operating margins up.
Olivia Tong - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Analyst
And how much of that do you -- as you sort of think about the operating margin, how much of that is going to come from scaling back advertising? And what do you think in terms of mix, sort of next year? Because part of that is the weather but part of that is also just the lower margin categories like mulch are doing better?
James Hagedorn
Management
No, I mean I think it’s to some extent -- then people will have to remind me of the components of the question. I’ll stick with mix for a second. This season this year, and look I think that our budgeting process and our belief in the weakness of the consumer is pretty important. And so what I’m going to really say is I don’t know exactly what happened in the second half of the season, but I think we saw it broadly in retail and that other people in consumer goods saw the same thing. But that the decline in retail sales in the second half of the season hit our Miracle-Gro brand pretty hard. That part of the season is the gardening part of the season, and that’s pretty high margin. So, I think that, at least my expectation is that we’re going to, that the Miracle-Gro brand should do better next year and that should be to some extent beneficial on mix. Some of the other areas of products that sell, like mulch, I think we believe there is something happening there and that’s a business that continues to year-over-year perform well and that the margin challenges we had there, deal to some extent with our supply chain and our ability to make money. And Barry and Dave Swihart and sort of the whole operating team are working hard and believe we have a strategy to significantly increase margin on mulch. So that as the mulch business we think continues to do well, we’re in a position to make more money on it. In regard to sort of promotional spend, I don’t really want to get in the detail on it now except on dollars, except to sort of just philosophically tell you. The North American business had a 50% increase in media spend in ‘12, the year we’re in now. We’re going to spend a lot more than we spent in ‘11, in ‘13. It’s just not going to be as much as ’12. So it will still be a significant increase of what we spent in ’11. And I really don’t want to get into dollars until we sort of start tying things down. But my hope is that we can be more specific with you sort of at a minimum in December when we sit down with you at the analyst meeting.
Olivia Tong - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Analyst
Got it. And then just lastly. Can you talk about your share? You said briefly on overall share gains, but can you talk about the difference in share gains across the categories. So maybe how much did you gain in seed versus fertilizer versus -- not seed, but fertilizer versus mulch. So sort of comparing the higher margin categories versus the lower margin ones?
James Hagedorn
Management
Barry, you want to take that.
Barry Sanders
Analyst
Sure. Olivia, this is Barry Sanders. We are gaining share faster in some of the lower margin categories of this year. We did see a faster gain in the mulch category than in the lawns business. But as Jim and David said in their opening remarks, we did gain share in every category except for the non-selective business and [select] business. And it ranged anywhere from a point up to around 8 points on the mulch business.
James Hagedorn
Management
And I don’t want to, like let the, sort of lawn fertilizer. The change in sort of sales trajectory that occurred, call it starting in May, and had a pretty bad effect on margin and that core of the business which is Miracle-Gro and the tail end of the lawn fertilizer business. But even with that, we flattened out the units sold in lawn fertilizer. Remember, we were dealing with sort of million unit losses per year in lawn fertilizer. So, one of the small victories that we had, maybe more than a small victory is the trajectory change in a loss of units in lawn fertilizer. So, even with the gutting of the tail end of the lawn fertilizer business or season, we still ended up flat a year-over-year units which was a big change in trajectory, okay.
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Bill Chappell with SunTrust.
William Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey
Analyst
Just trying to understand the longer-term goals and getting back to the earnings profitability you did just two years ago. I mean I understand your focus on the goal, but I mean if you look back at 2010, if I remember right, everything went right. I mean weather was good, a competitor went out of business, commodities were in your favor. So is that the right type of target and is it something in the next two years, next three years, next year. I mean what are we kind of looking at?
James Hagedorn
Management
Look, I hear what you say and to some extent there is truth to it. We had -- I’ll add on top, we took a bunch of pricing and commodities went down. So, it was a good year. Do we think it’s the right year to look at as kind of a restarting point? The answer is yes. And we believe we can do better. But this really sets out the sort of the tone of the challenge, Bill, is that on basically flat unit volume in the short-term, and the short-term is this is the first time we presented our board with a plan that was not sort of four to five years. We basically said the planning horizon in this environment, we’re going call two years. And we’re going to behave kind of short-term. When I say short-term, meaning we’ve got to get the earnings back and we’ve got to get in a trajectory of consistent earnings and cash flow that are moving in the right direction. So, I think that as we talk more clearly about what those numbers are, I think you’ll see the logic in it. Because we’re relatively early in the process of nailing all the detail down on the budget for next year that as time goes on, we’ll be able to sort of show you more detail on how we’ve arrived at the various targets. But I think that the answer is, it will seem more logical to you as we can take you through more detail. But the operating team has to sort of nail down things before we get to those discussions. But I think that the answer is, yes we do, and we think the trajectory from there needs to be up.
William Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey
Analyst
Okay. And just kind of switching to your expectations for next year. I mean are you expecting with prices to go up that volumes to be flat to down, or you think after this year the consumers is okay with and ready for some more pricing?
James Hagedorn
Management
Well, when we say low single-digit pricing we believe that the consumer will be tolerant to that. Remember, we didn’t price last year, many of our competitors did. So, we believe that the pricing will be accepted and we’re effectively looking at flat unit volume for next year.
William Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey
Analyst
Okay. And just last one. I mean if you look at the portfolio right now, are there categories where it makes sense just to get out of, I mean it’s just not to your profit margin expectations or growth margin expectations because you’re in so many different niches of the category?
James Hagedorn
Management
We’re looking very hard at the skews that we sell and the productivity of those skews, and I think that we’re prepared to make difficult choices. I think that’s probably as much as I can say right now.
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Sam Darkatsh with Raymond James.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Good morning, this is [Josh] filling in for Sam. First, a quick clarification question for Dave. If I heard you right, I thought you said you’re expecting $2 for this year and $0.40 from the current quarter, $0.40 loss. In order for me to get that to foot, is the $2 a GAAP number.
David Evans
Management
Josh, the $2 is our adjusted earnings per share.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay. And then a quick follow-up question on the pricing questions for next year. Do you have any sense of what your competitors are going to be doing with pricing in the coming year?
David Evans
Management
We think that we will most likely be taking pricing that’s slightly above where they’re at. Remember we didn’t take pricing last year, and as Jim said in his comments we think that the two-year combined that it will normalize itself.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Just one more if I might. Your marketing dollars that you were going to spend this year, I know you said you’re trimming variable comp, are you trimming any of the marketing spend this year or is all that going to go out.
David Evans
Management
We spent all of the marketing dollars that we planned on spending this year.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from (inaudible) with Barclays.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
We are all set, thank you very much.
Operator
Operator
And your next question come from Joe Altobello with Oppenheimer.
Joseph Altobello - Oppenheimer
Analyst
Just a couple of questions. I guess first you should POS was up 1% year-to-date and grass seed was down 14%. What was POS or what would’ve been POS if grass seed was, let’s say, flat this year?
David Evans
Management
It would have been up another percent, if those were flat.
Joseph Altobello - Oppenheimer
Analyst
Okay. So, it would have been, basically POS up 2 here. The question I’m trying to get to is, is this year really an issue where you had, one, high expectations coming in, and two, you basically had a lot of pull-forward, with a lot of your volume happening in February and March and maybe the first half of April, and so when you look at the overall business this year ex-grass seed, POS up 2, not terrible. And then with that it seems like you’re saying that you guys have now to get connected with the consumer, where historically what has been much more resilient. And so has that really changed or is it the high expectations and the full forward.…
James Hagedorn
Management
You know I wish you guys could just ask shorter questions only because I can’t remember this much stuff for long. Listen, Joe, I’m going to start and then hand it over to Barry. But, look, I will make it a little more confusing, exclude the fall in POS. Now there was a lot of move in commodity in this, okay, so the mulch business was like on fire, but POS for the calendar year is up like 4%. Okay.
Barry Sanders
Analyst
With grass seed down.
James Hagedorn
Management
Yeah, that includes grass. The thing is, you could say, yes, it was a great early part to the season. I could show you a weather map and you’d say, well, maybe it was heat and drought and maybe it was that. I can also show you maps that show sort of relative health of state economies where the better the states are doing, the better sales we’re doing. But overall, what we think we’re seeing, and really for the first time that we’ve ever admitted to it, so I think it’s a big deal here, is that even when the weather was good, we didn’t see sales happen. And I don’t know but Dave touched on this, but I think like since May, we’ve seen one positive comp week in the entire year, okay. And it was not that there was no good weather in that period, that there was no opportunity, we weren’t advertising. We think that something happened to the consumer. And I think that if you look at other consumer data, retail sales in general, in that same period, it’s like the worst than five years. So, I think something is happening, Joe. And now it’s possible that our budgeting exercise -- and I also think that to some extent, you could easily argue that you guys are assuming 8%, 9% growth. Clearly, like that’s over optimistic. But when we looked at the year before, this was kind of just getting back what we lost a year before. So, I think we’ve come to the right conclusion. I think it is different for us. It may be conservative, but it’s the way we’re going to budget and we just can’t, that the current is really strong right now. I mean I’m going to say the sort…
Barry Sanders
Analyst
Sure. Just a few numbers, just so we’ve been looking at the numbers pretty hard. Since 2007 we’ve looked at the category growth rate and it’s about 1% a year compounded annually. Our numbers have been slightly better than that relative to market share gains. If you go back years before that, I would say the number was more in the 2% to 4% range and probably slightly above GDP. We view the category right now as slightly lower growth than GDP. So, what Jim is saying is rather than try to fight that trend, we’re going to accept what those growth rates are and right size our spending relative to a more conservative planning assumption. And so if the category is going to grow a percent or two, then at least in the short term we’ll accept that as our growth goals and plan accordingly.
Joseph Altobello - Oppenheimer
Analyst
Okay. It’s very helpful. Since I squeezed all my questions to one, I’ll spare you guys a follow-up.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Jon Andersen with William Blair.
Jon Andersen - William Blair
Analyst · William Blair.
Jim, I want to come back to the question on getting back to peak profitability. I know you’ve addressed it a couple of different ways already, but is it fair to assume that based on the fact you talked about kind of a two-year planning horizon or that’s how you’re thinking about it currently. Kind of the statement that you plan to move quickly to restore profitability to prior peak levels that that’s a reasonable timeframe that you’re working with?
James Hagedorn
Management
Yeah. The answer is yes. And if I was talking to my team sort of privately, I’d say more than reasonable.
Jon Andersen - William Blair
Analyst · William Blair.
Okay.
James Hagedorn
Management
I mean a lot of this work on getting back where we need to be is I think well beyond the theoretical stage. Probably not at the stage where we can say it’s rock solid, but I think concrete is setting and a lot of decisions at least intellectually have been made. They just now have to be executed.
Jon Andersen - William Blair
Analyst · William Blair.
Okay. Fair enough. And I guess the only other question I have at the moment is, with plans to take some price next year and it sounds like may be a little more than you think your competitors might. How are you thinking about kind of price gaps relative to private label, other branded competitors, and your belief it kind of maintains the share gains that you had this year? Thanks.
James Hagedorn
Management
It’s a good question. I guess I’d start by saying, eyes wide open, and that we understand what we’re doing, especially as we make choices on certain sort of skews that are either money losing or marginally profitable. And there are those within every business, especially one as broad as ours within lawn and garden category. We understand that there could be consequences to that and we think that they’re built into our planning assumptions in regard to profitability, put it that way.
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Jim Barrett with CL King & Associates. Jim Barrett - CL King & Associates: Jim, could you touch upon your new product plans for both for next year and in the future. What’s your level of confidence in terms of what that pipeline is?
James Hagedorn
Management
Yeah. I’ll just hand it to Jim Lyski who is our Chief Marketing Officer.
James Lyski
Analyst
I would say that if you broke it into a few categories, the first thing that we’re going to do is ensure that we continue to invest in a year or two of our key innovation business (inaudible), and the one to [applicator] does, had very good years and we feel that there is a lot of runway left on both of those. So, that’ll be number one. Number two, you’re going to see us come out with some very good innovations around our core grass seed, Turf Builder line of grass seed that we think will take the bar up once again in performance in that category. The third is we’re introducing the brand new line of propellants this year. Something that it will be completely incremental to Scotts Miracle-Gro and it is getting very good retailer reception at the moment. And then finally, we’re going to experiment a little on different ways to tie the Miracle-Gro brand in more of the live good to growing category and see if there is any opportunity there to monetize the brand in a significant part of the gardening category. Jim Barrett - CL King & Associates: Okay. Thank you. And the follow-up would be for Jim Hagedorn. Jim, is the company reevaluating all of its current geographies and whether it should be competing in all those geographies? And thank you very much.
James Hagedorn
Management
You are welcome. We’ve too many Jim’s. What do you mean by geographies? Jim Barrett - CL King & Associates: I’m thinking -- I’m picking up Europe specifically.
James Hagedorn
Management
I am choosing my words really carefully here. Whatever is happening in Americas, it’s worse in Europe. And I think that, as we finished our board meeting yesterday -- and we’ve got a pretty good board. And I’m very confident in our management team as well. I think what we got to is saying, we really think the world is different. Coming out of this, hopefully coming out of this grand recession or whatever it is. And we think companies are going to have to be different as well, even after there is some recovery whatever that means in the consumer, both in America. And I am really talking in developed world. So I’m not really talking about Asia or Latin America. I am really talking with sort of old world countries, like America and Western Europe. I’m not sure the consumer is going to be exactly the same, probably not, coming out, but I don’t think companies are going to be the same coming out either. And I think the companies that adapt well are going to learn to thrive in a somewhat different environment. I think when it comes to Europe that would be the word of the day. And the challenge to Barry and his European management team is going to be to say how do we do more with less and I don’t think that changes. And I think we’ve got to embrace that is the way of the world and the way of business going forward, is that at least for the foreseeable future, people are going to have to -- we’re going to have to let basically view the architecture of new companies as is different. And I think Europe is going to -- and they’ve been doing a great job of trying to…
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from David MacGregor with Longbow Research.
Joshua Borstein - Longbow Research
Analyst
Hi, this is Josh Borstein in for David MacGregor. Thanks for taking my questions. In your June statement, you said that typically gardening activity accelerates during Mother’s Day through Memorial Day, but that didn’t happen this year. You’re trying to better understand why. Have you learned anything incremental since then about what happened?
James Hagedorn
Management
Maybe someone has got better answer than I do.
Barry Sanders
Analyst
90 degrees, the heat.
Joshua Borstein - Longbow Research
Analyst
The heat?
James Hagedorn
Management
I’m not going to say the heat. I think, it’s what I said before, which is I could show you weather maps and for sure a theme this year of hot and dry and July was the hottest month I think in U.S. history. And it didn’t just start in July. And I could also show you sort of economic health charts from states that would show you a relationship between our sales and the economic health of states like Texas and in North Dakota where there is a lot of energy work happening. I also think there is a very significant consumer change happened in that period. And so I have not made the effort to really try to figure out what it is. I know Jim has and he has produced some charts, I’m not sure I have a lot of faith in them, but it’s an effort to put like saying is it weather, is it the economy, is it year-over-year sales and sort of trajectory that has an effect. I think they all have an effect. And I think that everything we’re talking about in this call is about periods where we would have expected much better sales and we didn’t see them. And ultimately we’re having a different call here if we said it was just weather. If there is a theme to this call, it’s we think the consumer is like suffered and is -- something changed in the middle of our lawn and garden season and we are not expecting if they get better for the next couple of years. And we’re going to run our company a little differently so that we’re ready for when it changes. We are prep for it. We bring out new products. We continue to innovate. We continue to push out into new geographies where we think there is growth opportunities. And we continue to advertise and we continue to be a great employer. But the world is different based on the fact that we just don’t see the growth right now.
Operator
Operator
Our final question is from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan
Analyst
I missed the first few minutes of the call because of the Wall Street reports, so I apologize if you’ve addressed this. So, if you think that your volume growth more or less is zero as your base case, then presumably to hit whole of your targets, you are spending have to be cut each year over a multiyear period, or at least over two year or three years. Something like that. So whatever the actual number of cuts and the amount of cut, I take it that that’s the operating plan going forward.
James Hagedorn
Management
Just halt for a second. Just so that we correct you before you get too much ahead of theme going.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan
Analyst
Yes, I am sorry.
James Hagedorn
Management
We intend to take pricing. And so that unit volume we do expect to be flat. Dollar volume we do not expect to be flat.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan
Analyst
That said, you need a margin of error in order to hit your earnings targets, so is it still safe to say that your overall spending for next year just simply should be lower across the board?
James Hagedorn
Management
The answer is, yes, exclamation point.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan
Analyst
And then secondly you were kind enough to be very accurate about your intellectual agnosticism about why the consumer is acting differently. But historically you’ve conceptualized it very clearly that is, there is a desire to be outside, it’s a healthy activity, it’s something that makes people feel good, people want to do this. So, I realize that there is a lot of confusion as to why thematically the consumer is acting differently. But, what are the hypotheses now as to why the consumer is acting differently, even if you can’t settle on one that’s the true one?
Barry Sanders
Analyst
This is Barry Sanders. The charts that Jim talked about that Jim Lyski has produced, we’ve try to correlate as best as we could. Number one, correlation for what drives our sales which led to our optimism for this year is comps last year, and so we had a bad ‘11. Number two is the economy. And so, what we think has changed relative to this, and we’ve talked quite a bit about this is, it’s this prolonged economy and the relative -- Jim talked about consumer products and I think Alice Longley said this, the discretionary nature of our products, the prolonged nature, we would say that the economy is impacting it. Which is leading to our planning assumptions now to say, we’re not going to fight this headwind of economy until it turns around. And just as you’ve said, we’ll reduce our spending to accommodate what kind of economic conditions we’re operating in now.
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan
Analyst
Okay.
James Hagedorn
Management
Look, I think that our research data does not show differently, how consumers feel about gardening. So, it’s not like we’re seeing this big falloff in consumer’s desire or intent to garden, but they clearly didn’t spent behind it. What Barry left off was that, right after the economy was weather. We know weather was challenging this year. I know the fact there wasn’t zero. But again I think what we’re seeing is -- listen, if it comes back to what we go to do, consistency in our earnings and our cash flows, we’ve got to restore. The budgeting assumptions we’re making, which we believe in, okay, of zero unit growth in this period of consumer sort of atmosphere, it’s not a good word to use, but it’s what I kind of mean is safe for us, that the controllable part of how we spend money then affects what we earn. I just think that other people may give you better answers than I can. I just have to say that something happened in the middle of this year and it’s alarming. It’s really -- I would say if you’re an American, if people aren’t buying petunias, worry. And I think we’re seeing something maybe other people are not yet, but something happened this year and it’s more than just the weather. That’s effectively where we are. Something is happening and it’s more than the weather. I’d ask you. You know you guys are the geniuses, we sell dirt, man, and seed, and bags of manure. You know?
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan
Analyst
I think people are spending a lot of time mastering their electronic devices in their spare time.
James Hagedorn
Management
Okay. All right.
Jim King
Management
Anything else, Jeff?
Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan
Analyst
That’s all. Thank you very much.
Jim King
Management
All right. I think that’s all the questions that we have for this morning. If there are follow-up questions and you don’t already have time scheduled with us, just give me a call directly at 937-578-5622. Otherwise we will talk to you all during our fourth quarter conference call in early November. Thanks, have a great day.
Operator
Operator
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