Raymond Quinlan
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Thanks, Brian and thank you all for your attention this morning. It’s a pleasure to talk to you about the results of our quarter and about our franchise more generally. And I want to take couple of minutes upfront to level set on some things associated with the franchise, especially the backdrop of how successful investment college is for most Americans. And college and lifelong learning have continued to expand in our country and they create opportunity to both have greater mobility, they have greater chances for economic and even personal success including health. Those with the bachelors’ degree aren’t 65% more than those with the high school diploma and that delta has increased significantly over the last 25 years. We viewed independent research for our overall borrowing to college students and our annually published “how America pays for college” and families continue to value the college and higher education more generally with 90% saying it as a good investment in the student’s future, 84% believe that their student in their family will earn more money and 77% are willing to give up other items in their financial plan in order to devote this money to the investment in the next generation. And despite all these benefits, it still, we should remember that only about one-third of the next generation Americans are on the track to have a bachelors’ degree. And so, we’re seeing in our franchise alternative mechanisms that people are using to increase their human capital and at this point a 20% of our originations are different from the traditional undergraduate student loan in either the parent graduate international for profit or distance learning. Sallie Mae continues to be a supporter of American families as we help build the human capital for the next generation and at the moment we’re serving over 2 million students and cosigners, we’re the number one choice for families over all other private student lenders combined. And so, this is the case that this is due in part to our “Press Franchise” including our relationship managers who are nationwide and constant contact with over 2,400 higher education institutions. We’re on 98% of the preferred lender list, we’ve a 8+ rating and a better business here, and we’re product to announce that just recently we acquired a JD Powers certificate of performance for our customer service operations. This is driven by vast improvements in our customer service operation over the last four years, where the customer is contacting us to clarify something or to uptick the problem with their account has dropped by 60% over the last four years from 2015 to 2019. And at the same time we’re adjusting our interface with customers to conduct themselves in a way that is in-line with their preference. And so, this year we will do over 500,000 chats and chatbots with a improvable rating, customer satisfaction rating over 90% to the customers who use that facility. And so, it is the case that all of what I’m talking about is not the end, but is the means to an end that the same college commencement and we borrow our customers as they go Test College and move on to the next successive chapters in their lives. In addition to that we believe that Sallie Mae has a role in helping the students more generally understand the financial backdrop for their activities and we post both tools for analytics as well as scholarship availability on our website. Happy to say that last year the Sallie Mae scholarship search which is rendered as a free service to anyone looking at our website was able to help 20,000 students with $61 million of scholarship funds that were distributed to them via – on the scholarship providers but through the access on our internet site. So, as we move forward, we’re in an environment where the federal program dominates the outstanding amounts for student lending and there has been quite a bit of backend force in regard to that and we’re participants in that debate and we believe that the federal government and other government bodies have a role to play in helping economically challenged households to obtain the needed resources to advance their life as they fit. But, the federal program is certainly a candidate for improvement and I’ll just note in passing that the description of it is frequently sort of lumps together some sort of average, some undergraduate profiles. But 65% of the students there have balances under 25,000 and this is the case that 40% of the graduates in the last year had no debt at all. And so, we start to see that some of these distortions that are in the public, press and people having over a $100,000 in debt don’t represent the average customer and average student within that portfolio and only 5% of the federal program had balances over $100,000. 9% of the federal program, 9% of the students in the federal program would have the balance over $80,000 and they makeup fully 43% of the debt. So you might think that 10% of the students have 50% of the debt outstanding and 90% of the students have the other 50. So it’s a very skewed distribution I think as people start to enhance the program, we should look at those individual segments as opposed to on average which dominates most of the conversation. On the other end of the spectrum, it’s 9% of over $80,000 where half of all the loan defaults have balances under $10,000 and so, we’ve very fat tails on these, one fat tail is people, one fat tail is dollars. And so, I think this program could be greatly enhanced with some parameter changes and we’re participating in conversations to advance that agenda. Returning to us, our practices worked, our customers are successful, 91% of them complete the course of study which they have enrolled, 91% of those become employed, 88% agree that the work gives them a feeling of personal accomplishment, 86% agree that the college education opened up opportunities they wouldn’t have had without it and 98% successfully manage their loans with our right off rate running under 2% per annum. The underwriting limit and loan limits are working to managing both our portfolio for financial results as well as for the student success. And so, as we look at things, we go forward with this quarter, continuing our franchise build, we’ve had a very successful third quarter and will go on to report about it in a moment. But I’ll say that backdrops to many conversations we’ve with people are key, what about the political debate that is in the United States as people buy to become candidates for presidency and it is, in this case that whoever gets selected we will still be there, we will prosper, we will be satisfying the needs of the middleclass Americans as they seek to improve the lives of the next generation of Americans. In regard to this particular quarter, we’ve had a good quarter, core net income was $122 million, $0.29 a share, 26% increase over the prior year. We originated $2 billion $245 million education loans in the quarter up 6% from a year ago and year-to-date were at $4.9 billion originated, up $7.1% from the prior year. Our efficiency ratio has dropped to $36.6% in the quarter, normalized quarter for last year which has some financial into that would have been about 39%, dropping from 39% about 36.5%. In credit, the 30-day delinquencies are 2.8%, up from 2.7% in the quarter before, the second quarter and up from 2.3% a year ago. Our charge-offs come in at 127 basis points compared to 88 basis points to prior year and year-to-date charge-offs are at 115 compared to 101 basis points in the prior year. Charge-offs and delinquencies are essentially, will have actually are right on our plan, we expect delinquencies to stay at the 2.8% level for the remainder of the year and that the full year charge-offs will be about 1.2% which is on the expectation we set for charge-offs over 12 months ago. The delinquency buckets and what we see as a pipeline and stratifying the portfolio by segment and risk cohorts, we expect that the performance that we have will continue through the remainder of 2019 and persist through 2020. And so, the increases that we see are the continuing but mitigating match ratio of the portfolio that we have been discussing with investors and other interested parties for the last three years. Our net interest margin was 5.55% in the quarter compared to 5.88% in the prior quarter, 6% in the prior year. As you know we’ve been increasing our liquidity ratio and we ended that with 12.4% of total assets versus 7.2% in the prior year and as we’ve discussed in prior calls we expect the NIM to continue to drift on down, but as they pass through largely with no EPS impact as we increase the liquidity on the balance sheet to be more in-line with some industry norms. In the 10-Q there is the discussion of modifying some of our service and collection practices. As bank has grown we continue to review the practices that we experienced, we look to see what other people are doing, we take feedback from both our regulators as well as from our customers and we’ve an evolutionary approach to the collections treatment in particular. And so, as we’ve looked at this, there is a trade-off in collections between forbearance where no payment is made and loan modifications are interest only payments where smaller amount is paid, but you’re in more contact with the customer during those periods when less the contractual payments are being made. And so, we’re changing a few things here, we’re testing our way through 2020 and in general I say from a philosophical standpoint what you’ll see is we’re moving from periods of no payment to periods of low payment. And so, as we look at that we will see whether or not that effect on the customers is our results and the advantage what we believe it will have and we will keep everybody posted on that as we go through 2020. And so, we continue to have very good performance and this is just an enhancement of an ongoing nature to our portfolios. And so, our experience shows us that most of the customers who use forbearance or loan modifications performed very well and it’s right to say that our lending happens in a venue that is extremely unusual for consumer finance types and especially banks. But most lending is based on our continuity of the current picture when loan is granted coupled by the house we look into, who is working, we look at the cash flow associated with that, we as a lender as we say, we hope that continues and everything works out fine and we make the mortgage kind or make the mortgage loan. In regard to our customers they’re the other end of the spectrum, when we lend to them they’re entering a period of high volatility in their lives, they will graduate, they will move, they will get their job, they may get married, they may buy a house and over those seven years which is the normal length of loan for our customers, we’ve the highest volatility in their lives that’s being the case of the lives of relatively successful in regard to economics. And so, the challenge for us is to move along with our customers as their cash flows increase and decrease and that’s what we’re trying to do as we continue to evolve our collection practices. As we look at this we think it will affect about 4% of our customers who wind up being some stages of delinquency and we will work our way through that. It's a little bit hard to figure out whether or not impacts of these will all be neutral or not. We had some estimates that say, if this continues the way it had been going and we don't change our collection practices or we don't change the efficacy of those there might be an increase over the life loan of 4% to 14% and losses, we don't think that we will of course experience that but that is what the numbers would pull out of the current extrapolations. And so, we will do everything we can to make sure that it doesn't occur. We'll do everything we can to mitigate that and so as we go forward we will have constant reports each quarter, odds, how these changes are going, which ones we adopt, which ones we don't or purposes of forecasting for 2020 and 2021. The impact on the portfolio will be negligible for those. Returning to the quarterly results, the average yield on a private student loans were 9.3%, 9 basis points down from the prior quarter, up 14 basis points from the year before. Cost of the funds was at 275 down from 284 in the prior quarter up from 259 a year ago. These changes of course, all driven by LIBOR and the forward curve. In regard to guidance, we are increasing our fully diluted core earnings per share guidance. We are holding constant on our originations and our operating efficiency. So the guidance will be EPS of a $1.23 to a $1.24, origination of $5.7 billion in operating efficiency rate of 35% to 36%. As we leave this portion of the call, the backdrop that we have is as long-term players with us know is, we're going through several chapters and so the split and launch was 2014 and 2015. We had extraordinary growth as our receivable filled up on our balance sheet in 2016, 2017 and 2018. In 2019, we transition to a more normal company. Growth rate mitigated somewhat as you saw we authorized $200 million in stock purchases, initiated dividend. And so, as we enter 2020 and 2021, we will continue to do that. We expect the industry revenue pool to grow by about 5%. We expect that we will continue to grow slightly faster than that. We expect that we will have leverage in regard to that. But, we will start to follow that growth rate with that growth rate compounded by the leverage that we have in our operating base. So we'll be at 5%, 6% in revenue and we will subtract that going forward. We expect that to continue on a regular basis. So with those remarks, I want to thank you, one for your patience interest and to open up the call for Q&A which Steven and I will attempt to answer.