Claude Accum
Analyst · Desjardins Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, it’s Claude Accum here. With regard to Hong Kong sales, on constant currency, it is down 15%. But you need to tease a part of that business. They actually have three really good engines of growth. Two of them are doing very well. And so agency is up 16%. I believe that’s the second-highest growth rate in the industry. The MPS business is also doing quite well. It ranks number five, moving to four by assets. But our net sales, it ranks number two. So one of the strongest MPF growing platforms in Hong Kong. And the slower spot is the MCV sales are off. And we haven’t replaced that contribution. If you look at the whole contribution across Asia, our thesis is that these seven countries combined, should be able to produce a 15% to 20% growth rate. And so if you look at life sales, which are a bit soft, and combine that with wealth sales, which are very strong, showing 21% growth rates or 50% growth rates on a full year, on a constant currency basis, on a composite basis, we are seeing growth rates in Asia of 17%. And so that’s in the middle of that thesis of 15% to 20% growth rate. So we feel good about the growth trajectory in Asia, notwithstanding where Hong Kong is. If we look at all the other businesses combined, excluding Hong Kong, the other six businesses being Philippines, India, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, they are generating a 22% growth rate. So again, when you look across the whole book, we see some robustness in sales growth rate. If you look at expected profit, you really need to adjust for currency. So on expected profit full year, it looks like it’s up 4%. We’d like to see it grow faster than that, and we tend to manage it on a local currency basis. We don’t hedge the same cap, it’s all in its natural local currency. So if we adjust for FX, it’s another six points of growth. So expected profit is actually up 10 points and we think that’s pretty decent. And if you look at where that’s coming from, the seven businesses, the seven countries, are generating a 13% growth in expected profit. So we feel good about that on a constant currency basis. And then there is a bit of drag coming from the regional office, which takes about three percentage off that growth rate where we have some project expected RO, special projects. If we come to the return on equity, we would normally expect to see the return on equity increase 50 bips per annum or more over a three-year, four-year, five-year period. And we are carrying some extra capital in some of the subsidiaries, we did a capital injection in one of our subsidiaries and so that’s tempered the growth in ROE this year.