Paal Kibsgaard
Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead
Thank you, Patrick. Before I comment on the business outlook, I would like to talk about technology. And in particular how we continue to build out our offering to create an unmatched upstream technology platform where the individual products and services has the industry’s lowest cost of ownership and where the collective offering is readymade for broad-based system integration. This direction will first ensure that we become even more competitive in the markets where the prevailing business model is focused on lowest price for basic standalone products and services. And second, it will enable us to better serve the growing number of customers who favor integrated and performance based contracts, which is directionally where we see the industry heading. This includes extending our ownership of hardware, software and domain expertise into new market segments. As well as teaming up with companies like Google and Microsoft to capitalize on the latest advances in digital technology enablement. So what is the basis for our pursuit of technology system integration and why do we see hardware ownerships as a critical element of this strategy? Today the broad and complex EMP industry workflows are still predominantly enabled by discrete and fragmented products and services with the dividing lines between the various work packages defined by our customers contracting framework, which was established decades ago. These artificial dividing lines make sense at the time of creation when the technology systems were made up of a limited number of isolated hardware building blocks and the value of software and data was still nascent. With the complexity of today’s oil field operations and the advances made in other industries in terms of total system performance, it is clear that replacing our industry’s fragmented approach with a new focus on complete technology systems holds a massive performance upside. In response to this we have over the past seven years continued to build out our technology offering in terms of hardware, software and domain expertise. Where we today have the ownership and technical capabilities to develop these complete technology systems, driven by the following key beliefs. First, we believe that innovating across the artificial dividing lines of today’s individual work packages to create hardware technology with a broader scope, a smaller footprint and fewer interfaces holds huge upside potential in terms of both hardware costs and performance. The way we are integrating and innovating around the drilling bottomhole assembly is an example of this. Second, we believe that the next step change in industry performance will come from developing complete technology systems based on streamline and redefine end-to-end workflows, which integrates all hardware and software components. What we are doing with the rig of the future is an example of this. And third we believe that in order to maximize the performance of the EMP industry workflows it is essential to leverage the latest advances in digital technologies. We achieve this by making these enabling technologies an integral part of the new hardware and software technology systems as opposed to attaching them on top of the outdated and fragmented technologies of yesterday. What we are doing with DELFI, which was introduced at the FAS Global Forum during the third quarter is an example of this. DELFI is our new cognitive E&P environment that leverages the latest advances in data security analytics, machines learning, high performance computing, as well as teamwork and collaboration to drive total system performance. The DELFI environment provides a new way of working for the asset teams by strengthening the integration between the technical domains and by enabling our customers and software partners throughout their own intellectual property and workflows through the system. With the launch of DELFI we have also deployed an E&P data lake on the Google Cloud platform comprising more than 1000 3D seismic surveys, 5 million wells, 1 million well logs and 400 million production records from around the world demonstrating a step change in system scalability. DELFI will ultimately cover all industry workflows however the initial focus is on drilling and well construction. In this respect the DrillPlan and DrillOps [ph] solutions will in the coming quarters be introduced to the market and this combined with our down hole hardware and the rig of the future will under the one drill offering create an unprecedented step change in drilling performance. So this summarizes the strategic rationale behind our pursuit of technology system integration and also explains why we see hardware ownership as a critical element of the strategy. Our commitment to technology leadership is stronger than ever as can be seen by how we have advanced our technology strategy during the downturn of the past three years. We are now ready to capitalize on these investments in close collaboration with our customers. Let me next turn to the business environment where the reduction in global oil inventories in the third quarter clearly demonstrates that the oil market is now in balance, which is creating the required foundation for a further increase in the oil price and the inevitable growth in global E&P investments. And while the timing and pace of the pending industry recovery is still not completely clear we now see a number of converging market factors that make us increasingly positive about the outlook for our global business. First and foremost the growth in oil demand continues to be very strong and importantly the upward growth revisions in 2017 were primarily seen in the OACD countries. The demand growth outlook for 2018 is again expected to be north of 1.4 million barrels per day and is further supported by upward revisions in global GDP growth clearly suggesting that the demand side of the oil market equation is on a very solid footing. Looking closer at the global oil inventory, we also believe that the current situation is more positive than what is reflected by the market. Today global inventory levels are down to 64 days of forward cover and the North American stocks are already down to 2014 levels. Brent crude which is now in backwardation is seeing faster inventory draws and stocks are already approaching the five year average. In North America land where the E&P companies have added significant CapEx over the past year, the production growth is so far falling short of expectations, driven by supply chain inflation, operational inefficiencies and the need to step out from the Tier 1 acreage. This has led to a moderating investment appetite where the previous pursue to production growth is now being balanced out with an equal focus on generated solid financial returns and operating within cash flow. This moderation can be seen in the flattening trend of the U.S. land rig count during the third quarter and it is also reflected in our customers’ 2018 activity outlook. The more tempered activity outlook for U.S. land combined with the short cycle nature of the business has an immediate impact on the outlook for production growth, which for 2017 and 2018 has been revised down by 100,000 and 500,000 barrels per day respectively. This clearly has a material impacts on the global supply and demand balance. From the OPEC side compliance with the stated production cuts has been better than expected. At the same time comments from several of the key OPEC Gulf countries and from Russia suggest that an extension of the existing production cuts beyond the current agreement is a possibility although this may ultimately not be needed. Looking at the ongoing activity and investment levels in the international markets outside OPEC Gulf and Russia, we have so far seen very limited growth since we reached bottom of the cycle in the first quarter of this year. However, we’re seeing signs in many parts of the world of conventional land and offshore projects now being prepared for FID, and the total number of FIDs this year is double that of 2016. It is also worth noting that our overall tendering activity in the international markets is also up by over 50% in 2017 compared to last year, measured in total contract value. And we expect these positive trends to strengthen further in the coming quarters. Based on the combination of all these factors, we’re currently increasingly the positive on the overall outlook for our global business. It is still early to say what the specific impact on the 2018 E&P spend will be, as our customers are now in their planning process. But we do expect activity tailwinds in most part of the world in 2018. In the meantime, we’re fully focused on delivering industry leading products and services to our customers, and we also remain opportunistic with respect to making further strategic moves to position Schlumberger at the forefront of the industry as the global activity upturn slowly, but surely emerges. Before we open up for questions, which will likely initially be focus on SPM, let me again reiterate the rationale and objectives behind our SPM investments, which has not changed over the past two years. SPM will not alter the phase of Schlumberger it will simply complement our core business where the objective is to grow SPM from the size of a product line today to the size of a group over the next five to seven years. Granted SPM has a different risk profile compared to our core business, but different does not mean higher. The biggest risk to our full cycle returns in the core business is first the huge cost of scaling up and scaling down capacity in an increasingly volatile business environment. And second, failing to adjust our business approach in some of the large, but commoditized land markets around the world. Faced with these challenges, we’ve concluded that a strategy of doing nothing new is simply not a strategy. The SPM business model and contract duration significantly mitigates both of these core business risks, while in return we take on the reservoir risk and in certain cases higher counterparty risk. Our track record over the past 20 years of SPM activity shows that we’re very good at managing the reservoir risk and we’re also getting increasingly good at managing the counterparty party risk as demonstrated by how we have resolved the current and future payment situation in Ecuador. So, in short, SPM helps mitigate some of the major risks in our core business. At the same time, we know very well how to manage the new risk we take on through the SPM model to the points where we see SPM in combination with our base business actually lowering our overall risk profile rather than increasing it. In terms of returns, we have disclosed that over the past five years, the SPM business performance is highly accretive to both our operating margins and return on capital employed. So it should at least a crack at corresponding multiple to our core business. To realign our stated growth objects for SPM we are pursuing investments in new projects and the announcement made yesterday is in line with this strategy. Lastly, let me also point out that SPM remains a small part of what we do as a company. And that the core of Schlumberger continues to be focused on our technology leadership where there are currently a lot of exiting things happening. With that, lets open up for questions.