Paal Kibsgaard
Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead
Thank you, Patrick. So next let’s turn to the oil market where a sustained growth and demand continues to provide a much needed foundation for the outlook leaving little reason for concern over this part of the oil market equation. The supply side however is far more complex with market nervousness and investors speculation generally overshadowing facts and physical fundamentals leading to unpredictable movement in oil prices inspite of a third year of global under investment. The status of the global oil supply is best described by splitting the production base into three main block. First, Russia and the OPEC Gulf countries, second U.S. lands and third the rest of the world. The OPEC Gulf countries and Russia which combine make or close to 40% of global oil production remain fully committed to sound and consistent stewardship of their resource base. This is reflected in a steady increase in oil selectivity over the past three years as the world’s best well at economics easily absorbed the significant drop in oil prices. These countries are also actively supporting the rebalancing of the global oil market by taking a procative role in moderating the current production levels. The other two blocks of supply are currently pursuing diametrically post directions to both investments and resource management driven by the respective stakeholders. The production level from the U.S. land E&P companies which currently represent around 8% of global oil supply is largely driven by the U.S. equity investors who are encouraging, enabling and rewarding short term production growth inspite of marginal project economics. The fast barrels from U.S. land are facilitated by a factory approach to both drilling and production and supported by a rapidly scalable supplier industry with a low barrier to entry. In this market the pursuit of equity appreciation outweighs the lack of free cash flow, net income and return on capital employed for both E&P companies and the service industry. And although the fast barrels from U.S. land have already cooled the oil price sentiments as well as the evaluation of the equity investments themselves, this has yet to limit the investment appetite for additional production growth. The last book of producers making up the rest of the world today represents over 50% of global oil production and covers a broad and diverse group of IOCs, NOCs, and independent operators. In aggregate, this group is for the third successive year highly focussed on meeting the cash return expectations of their shareholders whether these are equity investors or governance. The operators meet these requirements by striving to keep production flat by producing their existing outlets part of their normal and by limiting investments to what provides short term contributions to production at the expense of increasing deflection rates. These producers have also benefited from a production tailwind of 500,000 barrels to 700,000 barrels per day in each of the past three years coming from new projects where the majority of the investments were made in previous years. And with a low rate of new projects being sanctioned since 2014 this tailwind will taper off in the coming years. This harvesting approach is not uncommon for conventional oilfields that are in their last years of life prior to being shut in. However, this investment in stewardship model is sustainable for a vast resource space that is both expected and required to provide a substantial part of global oil production for decades to come. Needless to say, the longer the current under investment carries on, the more severe the cliff like decline trend will likely be when the producers run out of short term options to maintain production. And given the size of the production base, it would be difficult for the rest of the global producers to compensate for this pending supply challenge. So, how does this supply and demand situation translate into the current status of the oil market? Following the extension of the OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts agreed in late May, the oil markets and also included, we are expecting to see clear reductions in global inventory levels in the second quarter leading to a more positive sentiments in the oil market. Instead, oil prices and market sentiments became unexpectedly more negative driven largely by fear of oversupply from the growing production from U.S. land where investments and activity is booming. This increasingly negative sentiment is reflected in the oil markets interpretation of the latest industry data points. First the fact that oil to the inventories are coming down so much slower than expected is currently a major concern for the market, although inventories are still coming down and the drills are expected to accelerate in the second half of this year. And second, the fact that production from Libya and Nigeria has increased in recent months it is also a major concern for the market even though these countries were excluded from the production cuts because their production levels were low at the time of the agreement. What we are currently witnessing is that the U.S. equity investors and E&P companies have spooked the oil market investors into believing that the fast barrels from U.S. land will flood the markets and leave inventory levels elevated for the foreseeable future. Therefore their pursuit of short term equity returns from the U.S. land E&P stocks is actually preventing the recovery of the oil market and sending oil prices further down thereby eliminating any equity appreciation that the investments set out to create in the first place. So what does this mean for the outlook for oil prices and E&P investments? The latest developments in the oil markets has created more uncertainty around the shape and timing of the global industry recovery. However, the near to medium term market evolution will continue to be dictated by the following three factors. First, with the moderation and the investment appetite towards the fast but marginal barrels from U.S. land leading to a stronger focus on E&P financial returns and the need to operate within free cash flow. Second, with the key OPEC and non-OPEC countries extends the production cuts beyond the current nine month agreement. And third, with the emerging trend of a gradual investment increase in the rest of the world accelerate, develop mitigate or at least dampen the pending medium-term supply challenges. These three factors are somewhat interdependent and forecasting the forward part from the current market situation is at present difficult given the unpredictable and at times irrational behavior of the broader oil market. Still it remains clear to us that the current underinvestment in the rest of the world with increasing certainty create a mounting supply challenge over the coming years which will require a significant increase and acceleration in global E&P spend. At present we are seeing the first small signs of increasing investments in the rest of the world. However, the further evolution of this emerging trend will still be governed by the actions of the OPEC Gulf countries and Russia on one side and the U.S. equity investors and E&P companies on the other. New fund moderation from the U.S. producers combined with continued moderation from the OPEC Gulf countries and Russia should pave the way for a steady increase in oil prices. This in turn will provide an investment platform that will allow all three supplier groups to increase E&P spend to jointly help mitigate the pending supply issues. On the other hand, an absence of moderation from both sides could lead to further drop in oil prices which in turn would both accelerate and amplify the pending supply issues. In this market we continue to focus on serving our customers and driving on business forward by broadening our technology portfolio and increasing our addressable market by further streamlining our execution machine and by pursuing new and more collaborative ways of working with our customers. And in doing so we are maintaining a balanced coverage of the global oil and gas industry allowing us to effectively address current and future customer activity. This includes U.S. land where we today are seeing strong growth in both activity and service pricing. The OPEC Gulf countries and Russia already continue to see strong activity and a broad uptake of our entire technology offering, as well as the rest of the world which in spite of record low activity levels still represent over 50% of global oil production and we’ll at some stage need to return to considerably higher investment levels even to just uphold current production. As part of our global focus we yesterday announced our intention to acquire a majority stake in the Eurasia drilling company in Russia. This extents the success for long-term relationship we have enjoyed with EDC through this strategic alliance we sign in 2011 which has enabled the deployment of a broad range of our drilling and well engineering services to our customers in Russia land. The pending EDC transaction together with our recent investment in a land rig manufacturing facility in Kaliningrad will further broaden our present infrastructure and capabilities used to serve the conventional Russian land drilling market. In Western Siberia, the land drilling contractors continue to have the leading role in providing integrated drilling services through turnkey models. And as the uptake of horizontal drilling continues to increase the deployment of integrated drilling systems through the EDC platform including our rig of the future, will allow us to bring new levels of drilling efficiency to our existing and new customers in this large market. So we are pleased to have reached this agreement with the EDC shareholders and we are already well advanced in preparing the regulatory filings required to complete this transaction. That concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open up for questions.