Tal Keinan
Analyst · Tom Catherwood with BTIG
Thanks, Mike. All right, leasing update. I'm not going to go through all the cells on this chart. Let me just highlight a couple things. First, take a look at APA 1. That's Denver Centennial Phase 1. One of the things that should jump out on this chart is our relatively low economic occupancy. So leasing has been slow in Denver. That's just the state of affairs. Not all of these lease up the same time. Some take longer than others. I will point to examples like Miami and Nashville. Miami took almost a year and a half to lease up Phase 1, and Nashville took even longer than that. Both of those are very, very robust cash-flowing campuses today. So we're not concerned about it. We wish we could move faster on this, but that is the state of affairs. Two other cells that would jump out, I think, are the average rents per square foot in DVT 1, that's Phoenix; and Addison 1, that is Dallas, ADS 1. So a couple things to point out here, and this sort of obscures the reality, and I think if people have been paying attention on the last couple calls will note. Our leasing strategy on specifically these 3 airports includes offering short-term leases at introductory rates just to get to full occupancy as quickly as possible. Get the cash flowing, get the debt serviced, and then go back and revisit again. These are short-term leases. Go back and revisit. The longer-term leases, of which all of these campuses have longer-term leases, we do sign at target or, actually, in all 3 of these cases above target levels, right? To give you a sense, in Dallas, our multi-year tenants are paying rents in the 40s and 50s per square foot. So the ambition is as we proceed here, and we're pretty close to, take Dallas as an example, pretty close to 100% leased at Dallas, is as these short-term leases come to term, start cycling back and replacing them with real long-term residents at the rates that we're looking for. So that explains those numbers. Yes, if we had done the same thing, I think we didn't exactly do this in Nashville and Miami or Houston at the beginning. But Nashville is one that started even with long-term leases in the 20s. And you see over a relatively short time that comes up and grows into pretty robust rates. So again, we expect that trend to continue on those. The last thing I'll call everyone's attention to on this slide is the re-lease update, lower left-hand corner. Just a reminder to people of what that metric is, is in the last 12 months, we have had 100,360 square feet of hangar leases come to term, expire, and get renewed. In nearly all those cases, it's the same resident who is renewing, and the average step-up from the last year of the first lease term to the first year of the second lease term is 19%. You'll notice that's a few points down from last quarter. The main reason for that is that we -- a lot of these leases are now not the second term but the third term of the lease, where we've expected and will continue to expect a bit of a smaller bump on that one. We're closer to what we would call the actual market rates. All right, next slide is site acquisition. Again, more or less speaks for itself. I've said on these calls how I think this company should be valued, which is look at the total rentable square footage of hangar that the company has secured under ground lease, not developed yet, but secured under ground lease, which is that 4 million number on the right. Multiply that times the Sky Harbour equivalent rent. And again, everyone can make their own rent projections on that. As you'll see, we've beaten Sky Harbour equivalent rent on all of the existing campuses. So we think that's a pretty good conservative number to use. That gives you a top-line revenue number. We'll talk a little bit about operating margins in a few slides. But that is your available revenue capture, which is currently under ground lease. And again, I'll emphasize this, certainly on the next, at least, year of quarterly earnings calls, is the entry ticket to this entire business is the ground lease. That is the most important move. At the extreme, this could be a site acquisition company that hands off construction and operations to somebody else. Now, we don't think we should do it that way, but fundamentally that is where the value gets created, is when the ground lease is signed. So -- and then, take that number. You can put whatever multiple you want on that or cap rate. And then discount it for all of the risks that we're all familiar with, right? There is development risk, construction risk, there's lease-up risk, there's operating risk. All that stuff exists. It is appropriate to discount those and obviously discount that for the time it takes to actually build these campuses. But as you'll see, our focus is increasingly on Tier 1 airports. And we have another slide on that, so I'm not going to get deeper into that now. Next slide. One thing that I want to highlight and maybe just head off some concerns, and we've heard this from a number of people, and this is something that we thought of ourselves as this was happening. As you'll notice, there is a lot of expansion going on in California, just as there's been quite a bit of capital flight among the most wealthy residents of California. We're seeing that firsthand because those people are signing up in our Miami, Nashville, Dallas campuses. We've got a lot of wealthy California refugees, so to speak, in those campuses. The reason that we continue to invest in California and grow it, the first part is self-evident. Look at the rents that we're getting in California. Other than the New York market, it's probably the best market in the country. That's both Bay Area and Southern California. But if you look at the trend as well, most the people who have left, and it's well over $1 trillion of wealth that's left in the last 12 months, most of those people return with a frequency that justifies keeping permanent hangar space. And a lot of our residents in California exactly fit that bill. The people who are no longer domiciled in California but visit enough that there is -- that they keep hangar space with us. The second is, and we actually -- we put it on the slide, is -- of that $1 trillion-plus of wealth that's left California in the last year, the vast majority of that is 10 people. 10 people constitute the majority of that flight. And in the same period, 37 new billionaires have been minted in California, primarily Northern California, not only. And I think the insight that will, I think, be intuitive to everyone on this call, the average number of aircraft owned by somebody with, let's say, $2 billion is not significantly lower than the average number of aircraft owned by somebody with $80 billion. So our market in California continues growing, even as wealth on a net basis is leaving California. So expect even more emphasis on California site acquisition in the coming quarters. We have very, very high conviction on that market. Okay. Our development update. So this is one of the areas where the, as I said, the rubber is meeting the road. We spent a lot of time talking about our gear-up on the development and construction side of the business. A lot of increase in capacity, the vertical integration being completed, our entry into general contracting, building our own campuses. All of that was put in place to achieve scale. And right now that's where that's being borne out. So we are on track both on budget and on time with all of the developments in this plan. And you see some pictures on the right from the campuses that are going to go open soon. Bottom right is Bradley, Connecticut. That is the nearest term. We've got Dallas, Addison. Actually, we don't have pictures of that, sorry. And we have Salt Lake City, which is going to be delivered early next year. And we'll talk a little bit about construction costs as we go, but again, this should give people a sense of just how much is under development at Sky Harbour right now. And with that, let me turn it back to Francisco to talk about liquidity.