Tal Keinan
Analyst · Lake Street Capital Markets
Thanks, Francisco. So the slide is self-explanatory, and it's the same format we've been using in the last few earnings calls. So I think I'm just going to highlight a few specific rubrics here for people's attention. Starting with the campuses that are in initial lease-up. We'll speak specifically about Opa Locka, Miami Phase 2 in a later slide, I think our -- what I'd just call attention to is Denver, APA Phase 1, where we're only 44% leased at this point. Sometimes they go a little bit slower than others. This one has definitely lagged a bit. But again, that's -- I think Nashville looked quite similar 6 months after it opened. So we don't really attach that much significance to it. Obviously, we wish everything moved a little bit faster. And then on the left side, you can see the economic occupancy, which now on all but one campus is, at 100% or above. What's the upper limit of that? I'm going to have to go on a limb and say San Jose is probably somewhere near the upper limit of that. We might find a few more creative ways to increase occupancy beyond 130%, but that -- it's probably not going to go much beyond that. However, what I really want to point out is the lower left-hand corner of the slide, that re-lease update. So in the last 12 months, we have re-leased about 119,000 square feet of hangar, meaning leases that have come to term and either been renewed by the existing resident or taken over by a new resident. The average escalation between one lease and the next is 23%. By the way, that's up from 22% in the last quarter. All of this is on top of the annual escalators, the contractual escalators that feature in all of our leases, which escalate at CPI with a floor of 4%. Anyone who is running a model for Sky Harbour knows that your inflation assumption is one of the most sensitive inputs in the entire model. Again, I don't want to make a claim here that we'll always be getting 23% escalations. But the -- for the time being, at least, I think what we're seeing is more or less what we forecast a couple of years ago on these calls, which is that hangar inflation has nothing to do with CPI. We are on the island of Manhattan from a real estate perspective. You just cannot build new airports. And we think that this scarcity is what -- I think is one of the key components of driving the value on a macro level in this company going forward. Next slide. A little bit of kind of forecast versus actual. So again, things that I'll point out. You've got 2 rows here of third-party forecast for revenue per square foot on different campuses. What we're showing right now is whatever is gray is going to be within the range of those forecasts. Whatever is green is going to be above both forecasts. Whatever is red is going to be below both forecast. So what you see at first blush might look like a mixed bag. To us, it does not because that high range, if you look -- we've got high, average, and low. The high range in the campuses that are in lease-up, okay? So look at DVT, APA, and ADS, the high range are the long-term leases, okay? And I think as people might remember, our strategy on initial lease-up, this is before we move to the pre-leasing strategy, which we'll get to soon, has been to get these campuses to 100% as quickly as possible. So if somebody wants to come in on a 6-month lease at some very low introductory rate, we're fine with that. We want to start actually negotiating in earnest with our long-term tenants on the basis of 100% occupancy or higher. So rather than let these hangars ride empty for the months that it takes to get to 100% and surpass it, we rent them out like this, which skews your averages. So all of those higher -- the green numbers on those lease-up campuses are long-term leases. That's what that looks like. And then another thing I'll call everyone's attention to is if you look at the legacy campuses, what we call the stabilized campuses. So BNA, that's Nashville, OPF 1, that's Miami Phase 1, even Camarillo, CMA, at the end, what you'll see is the lows are the first leases that we signed. In fact, if you take BNA, that might actually be the very first lease we signed at BNA. And the highs tend to be the last leases that we signed, which, again, I think corroborates the trend that we're talking about, that 23% re-lease rate. As time goes by, these leases go up, which is why we're getting a lot of demand from new residents, especially long-term residents, to maximize the term of their leases because there's an increasing appreciation that this inflation trend is here to stay in business of aviation. Okay. Next slide. A little bit about pre-leasing. So Miami Phase 2 is the first campus that we've -- the first campus on which we've applied this pre-leasing strategy, where we're going out and offering people certain incentives to sign leases before we even open the doors, which has resulted in what we consider pretty significant success. We're 68% leased in Miami Phase 2 the day we opened the doors. That means we're leaving some money on the table, no question. We think all things considered, this is probably the right way for us to continue. A few things that we learned from Opa Locka Phase 2, I'm starting at the top of the slide. Number one, this is the first, at least partial, trial of the Ascend integrated construction program that we have in place. We're using the prototype hangar. It's a derivative of the SH37s, the SH34 hangar. We're using Stratus construction. That steel that you see in the picture is our Stratus Steel. We're using Ascend construction management. What we don't have yet here is, number one, our GMP was priced before we implemented the program, before Ascend came in. So that budget construction cost is what it is. And number two, we're using a third-party general contractor in Miami. But other than that, this is the Ascend integrated construction program. We're very happy to demonstrate an on-time, on-budget delivery. The next thing I think it's worth understanding is -- you'll see this in some of the upcoming slides. Same campus expansion can be a lot more valuable than putting a new dot on the map in that we know the market -- we'll take Miami in this case as sort of the first example of this. We know the market and even more importantly, the market knows us, okay? It's not like we're getting more speculative when we increase the size, and you'll see when we talk about Stewart and Dallas, that's exactly what we're doing. It's just that we know the battle space a lot better. And again, our counter-parties know us better. There's a lot of pent-up demand in Miami. There's about to be a lot of pent-up demand in Dallas. Once people experience the Sky Harbour model, the churn is extremely low. People tend not to leave us. Most of those 23% markups are to existing residents, who just understand that there is a market. This is what people are paying now. If I want to stay, that's what we have to pay. And so the churn has been extremely low. So look out for a lot more of that going forward, and we'll show as we -- I don't know if people have already seen our press release, but the guidance that we're putting forward is based a lot more on that, meaning more dots on the map is not really what we're going after, and I'll explain more in the coming slides. Next slide. Okay. So a few things that jump out on site acquisition. You'll start, conspicuously to perhaps some of you up in Seattle, a dot has been removed. So you might remember, we had a 1-year lease at Boeing Field in Seattle. We allowed that lease to lapse. We were not happy enough with the terms of the long-term lease that was put in front of us. And add to that some macro trends on wealth flight from Washington State made us say, "Listen, let's allow that lease to lapse." We can be on the fence for a little while. There are other opportunities, other avenues of attack at Boeing Field. We still like the airport a lot, but we don't think that that's the right entry point. So we will hopefully come back to that at some point, but it's not going to be right now. And then just to help people understand what we're looking at, and we've had a lot of questions about this over the last quarter or so is tiering, okay? What do we mean when we say Tier 1, which I'm glad we got the questions because kind of for us, it was a little bit less structured internally. So we put some pretty rigid criteria down. I think that's going to work really well. What we call a Tier 1 airport is an airport that's going to deliver us $50 per square foot or better. That's Sky Harbour's internal underwriting. That's not what any third-party is telling us. That's our internal underwriting. But again, if you can compare it to what we showed in some of the previous slides, we tend to undershoot on what we attribute to a field, meaning we're making more per square foot on the field than even we forecast. So we think it's a pretty solid number. It's the same methodology we've always used internally. Tier 2 is airports where we think we're going to be making $30 to $50 per square foot in revenue. And then Tier 3 is below $30 per square foot. Just to be clear, Tier 2 is good. It's great. Like look at Miami, look at Nashville, these are healthy, double-digit, unlevered yield on cost airports and they're Tier 2 airports. So that works really well. Tier 1 is great, obviously, right? Your denominator and yield on cost is relatively static. It varies within a pretty tight range. Your denominator primarily being development costs. But your numerator, right, we're in the real estate business. It's really about location. There are jurisdictions where you're going to get a lot more per square foot even for the same product that you put out. And then Tier 3, Tier 3 can actually work pretty often, but it's not our focus right now. I think it will be down the road. As our construction costs -- which we'll talk about soon, as our construction costs continue to come down as Francisco and the finance team get our cost of capital down over time, many, many more airports in the country become viable and those Tier 3 airports are becoming interesting, right? There are plenty of scenarios where we can generate those double-digit unlevered yields on cost even in Tier 3 airports. We're just not doing that right now because there are juicer targets in front of us. A couple of things to point out. The green dots are currently open and operating airports. The flags represent the tiers. One of the things that you'll see is on the yellow dots, meaning the airports that are in development, not operating yet, there is a much, much higher incidence of Tier 1 airports. And this is exactly what we've been telling you from the beginning. We started out with a relatively arbitrary portfolio of airports. We knew we wanted to stay out of the New York market because we knew we'd make some big mistakes that we did in our early days. But once we became comfortable that the model is working and it is established, we could build these things at the cost that we thought we could build them, we could lease them at the rates that we thought we could lease them, we started expanding to the Tier 1 markets. So as you can see, we actually tabulated it here. 48% of the rentable square footage that is currently fully funded and in the construction pipeline, either under construction or in preconstruction right now, 48% of that square footage is in Tier 1 markets. If you express that in dollars, it would be obviously a much, much higher level, right, because your dollar per square foot is higher. We didn't want to get into that. It's a tough calculation and that starts getting close to guidance. So we didn't want to put it out there, but you can kind of back into the math yourself. That will be increasingly the story, at least for the next 2 years, meaning our major focus is on Tier 1 airports and some Tier 2 airports. Occasionally, there's going to be a Tier 3 that just lines up very easily, and we'll jump on that. But our primary focus, for at least the 2 years ahead, is Tier 1 airports. The only thing I think that bears a little explanation in this is Miami having the red and blue flag. To be clear, Miami Phase 1 is still solidly within Tier 2 territory. We've got a lot of legacy leases. Again, the latest leases signed in Miami Phase 1 are coming into Tier 1 territory. But on average, we're still Tier 2. But our second phase in Miami is a solid Tier 1. And we think that entire kind of corridor in South Florida will continue accelerating on that same path. I think that's all I had on this slide. Next slide, please. Okay. So a little bit about development. We call it projected fully funded construction pipeline. Projected because the sequence might shift a bit as conditions change. Again, sometimes we want to put an airport with those. We think there's a great leasing opportunity, move it up a little bit in the chain. But largely, this is what it's going to look like. A few things that should jump out at kind of some of the more astute observers of Sky Harbour. Number one, revenue run rate step-ups are not linear. They're a step function, okay? That's how this company works. it almost doesn't matter what's going on month by month or quarter-by-quarter. It matters what's going on project by project. Bradley is going to get delivered in Q4. Addison I is going to get delivered by the beginning of Q1. That's when you have your big step-ups. Again, we are re-leasing in the interim, right? There are Nashville hangars that are going for 23% higher than they were going for before, but your big quantum step-ups are every time a project gets delivered. The -- what you're seeing here as well, it shows the importance why we've invested so much over the last 18 months in the Ascend integrated construction program. What you're seeing on this chart is an order of magnitude increase in the square footage as being parallel processed at this company. We've never had this much -- anywhere near this amount of construction underway in parallel. Let's hope it keeps up, but it's all going smoothly, on schedule, on budget, and that is really a testament to the Ascend team. Just as a reminder, what that includes is prototyping, in-house architecture and engineering, in-house manufacturing, and increasingly in-house general contracting. That's what that program constitutes. You can see also when that revenue really starts to fire, right, which you'll see a big, big bulge in revenues coming on in 2027, okay, which should be clear to anyone who's watching how this company grows. And we're not going to make huge forecast for the years ahead. Just understand that the intention is to do another order of magnitude leap in the volume of parallel processing going forward. It's all a matter of getting these top-tier airports into the portfolio, getting them financed and now unleashing the Ascend team on those projects. I think that's all I had on this slide. Let me hand it back to Francisco.