Paul W. Freddo
Analyst · Cedrik Lachance, Green Street Advisors
Thank you, Dan. I'd like to spend some time today discussing the leasing environment and our expectations for holiday sales. But first, I will briefly address the quarterly results. As evidenced by another quarter of strong leasing volume, we continue to see robust demand and increasing competition for quality space, resulting in positive trends in both occupancy and leasing spreads. In the third quarter, we executed 230 new deals for 1.2 million square feet. This was the second highest level of quarterly leasing volume by square footage in company history and it was achieved with a new deal spread of 9.8%. We also executed 286 renewals for 1.7 million square feet at a spread of 6.5%, our highest renewal spread in 16 quarters. Combined, we leased 2.9 million square feet during the quarter, which brings us to 8.9 million square feet year-to-date and over 42 million square feet leased in the past 15 quarters. Combined spreads for the quarter were positive 7.0% representing the 10th consecutive quarter of positive leasing spreads. As a result of these achievements, our lease rate is now 94.0%, up 30 basis points over the second quarter. These strong results have been supported in large part by the dramatic shift in the supply and demand dynamic, as today's most successful retailers seek new store growth opportunities and favor the high-quality power center format which offers the most sought after co-tenancy, greatest access and visibility and dramatically-lower operating expenses. We are not surprised by this growing trend and we expect this dynamic to continue, supporting consistently strong operating metrics for the foreseeable future. Our top 40 tenants alone are on track to open 77 million square feet of new stores in 2012, and project to open another 82 million square feet per year in 2013 and 2014. In addition to the continued demand from anchor and junior anchor retailers, there's equally strong demand for smaller space from retailers such as Ulta, Five Below, Tilly's, Carter's, Shoe Carnival, Anna's Linens and Kirkland's. These retailers are looking to aggressively open new stores and represent great candidates for small shop consolidation, as well as ideal users of residual space from big-box downsizings in the 5,000 to 10,000 square-foot range. Furthermore, several traditional department store chains are continuing to aggressively expand their off-price divisions by opening new stores in our power centers, specifically Nordstrom Rack, Saks Off 5th and Bloomingdale's Outlet. Fortunately, our assets are in high demand by these retailers and we continue to source opportunities for these growing companies. With only 16 million square feet or less than 1% of existing inventory of opening at retail expected to be delivered in 2013, demand for space is far outpacing supply. As a result and despite having already achieved significant improvement in our lease rate, we are not done leasing up the portfolio. We see continued future growth from the combination of leasing the existent vacant boxes to releasing the boxes that we were actively trying to recapture from underperforming weaker credit tenants, the vacancy from recent acquisitions and creative in-line leasing through small shop consolidation, downsizings and our extremely successful Set Up Shop program. A specific example of maximizing a recent acquisition by leveraging our operating platform is Brookside Marketplace in Tinley Park, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago. This asset was acquired in the first quarter of this year and is anchored by Target, Kohl's, Dick's Sporting Goods, HomeGoods, PetSmart and Ulta also. In just 7 months, we have improved not only the merchandise mix, but also increased occupancy and NOI. We executed a new lease with Ross Dress for Less on a previously undeveloped parcel, and are in final negotiations with a national credit retailer to consolidate a chronically-vacant small shop wing into a junior anchor box. The addition of these 2 junior anchors, combined with the lease-up of 2 of the previously undeveloped outparcels, will further position this asset as the dominant power center in the market. Once complete, we will have added to the rent roll over 50,000 square feet of new rent paying GLA, improved the lease rate from 90% to 99%, increase NOI by 40%, reduced exposure to small shop space by 10% and most importantly, we will have improved our yield by 110 basis points over the acquisition cap rate to nearly 8%. Another example of creating value in a recent acquisition is Ahwatukee Foothills in Phoenix, Arizona, a center we acquired from a joint venture partner in the third quarter. This power center features anchor tenants such as Ross Dress for Less, PETCO, Jo-Ann, Babies "R" Us, AMC Theatres and Old Navy. Here, we relocated and downsized Roomstore furniture, achieving a 50% positive comp on the new space. We split Roomstore's former box and provided a new location for Sprouts Farmers Market, adding a specialty grocery component to the power center, driving additional daily foot traffic and adding value to the surrounding units. We are finalizing a lease for the remaining portion of the former Roomstore box to accommodate a national junior anchor. Combined, this new activity will increase NOI by 15%, improve occupancy from 90% to 95% and improve our acquisition by 60 basis points to over 7.5%. Another opportunity for additional future growth is through downsizings. For example, at Easton Market in Columbus Ohio, a 500,000 square-foot power center, we recently completed the downsizing of a former Kittle's Furniture box and provided Nordstrom Rack with its first store in the Columbus market. Additionally, in the residual space, we signed leases with Tilly's for its first store in the Columbus market and Carter's as they expand their presence in Columbus. With the ability to mark this space to market, we improved the rent per square foot by 80% on Nordstrom Rack space, 150% on Tilly's space and 170% on the Carter's space. Clearly, the ability to grow through downsizing is impactful and we're pursuing these opportunities with several of our oversized tenants. Overall, we see numerous similar opportunities across our portfolio today and expect to uncover additional growth initiatives as we work with retailers to creatively meet their open to buys. We are also growing through small shop consolidation. Over the past 11 quarters, we have consolidated 400 previously-vacant small shop units into 116 mid-box spaces, representing 1.2 million square feet at an average rent of $14 per foot, and highlighting the continued strong demand from retailers in the 5,000 to 10,000 square-foot range. Over the same time frame, we've increased our leased rate for units less than 5,000 square feet from 80% to 84.5%, and have reduced our exposure to these units from 19% to 16.4% of total GLA. We will continue to increase the lease rate of our small shop space with a long-term occupancy goal of over 90%, while continuing to reduce exposure to the same category given its nature of lower credit quality tenants and higher unpredictable turnovers. Overall, the combination of maximizing acquisitions with the value-add leasing in the vacancy we are buying or creating, consolidating small shops and aggressively pursuing downsizings will lead to continued growth across our portfolio. Before I turn the call over to David, I want to quickly remind everyone what we should watch for as we head into the holiday sales season. Volatile headlines may suggest a slowing economy due to the uncertainty created by the election, variable gas prices, conditions in Europe or fluctuating consumer sentiment. However, it is important to remember that successful retailers continue to perform in the face of these headwinds and retailers are planning their holiday selling season accordingly. What we do know is that the retailers who carry the right merchandise at the right price at the right time will undoubtedly thrive during the holiday sales season. And when it comes to margins, nothing is more important than controlling inventory levels, and well-managed inventory levels will be the theme again this year. Other positives this year include 2 extra shopping days, a cooler selling season, improving the prospects for winter goods, and a continued consumer shift to value and convenience. We will be very focused on the timing and percentages offered for holiday markdowns, which often tell the story in advance of official results. And I will now turn the call over to David.