Daniel B. Hurwitz
Analyst · Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Well, it's a great question, Steve, and I've great respect for Amazon. I'm not quite sure why they're valued, where they're valued, and I'm not quite sure why they're not obligated to make money like every other retailer is. And I think if they're held by this -- to the same standard as most every other retailer out there, obviously, people would be looking at them very differently. They would probably be on some sort of watch list, quite frankly, if you're looking at a less than 1% operating margin on sales of their size. I fully understand the need to invest in the future, and I fully understand the need for their CapEx, which is obviously, as you referenced, growing at a pretty dramatic rate. I get it. And I understand that they're building for the future, but at a company that does over $60 billion in sales, my question is, when is the future? If the future is -- was the future at -- is it at $100 billion, was it at $20 billion? Was -- is it $60 billion? So I think at some point in time, Amazon -- the model has to show that it can make money, and it hasn't done that yet. If you listened to their call last week, they kind of downplayed the same-day delivery notion a little bit. It got played out much more in the press than it did on their call, and I think -- I thought that was pretty surprising because that was something that everyone views as minimizing what's the competitive advantage for bricks and mortar, which is that you can pick things up and having some gratification, Amazon really can't provide you with that instant gratification. So I -- Amazon, it's an interesting case study. I think it gets a lot more attention than, quite frankly, it probably deserves. I think at some point in time, they'll be held but to the same standards as the rest of the retail. And when they're held to the same standards as the rest of retail, I think there's a real question whether the model works from a profitability standpoint. And while they continue to invest enormous sums of money in their business, and I think to grow market share, and I think that's a smart thing for them to do, I think that investment on the capital side is masking the fact that operating margin is beyond thin. And that's something that ultimately they're going to have to answer to, and I'm not so sure the model can answer to it as its currently constructed.