Michele Santana
Analyst · Cowen & Co
Thank you, Mark. And good morning, everyone. All right. I’m going to start with covering Signet’s fourth quarter sales. For the fourth quarter, Signet’s comps decreased 4.5%, against an increase of 4.9% in the prior year fourth quarter and compares to a two-year comp hurdle rate of 9.1%. Total Signet sales decreased 5.1%. And on a constant exchange basis, total sales decreased 3.3% for the quarter. Sales on an operating segment basis were as follows: In Sterling Jewelers, total sales declined 3.7% to $1.4 billion; comps decreased 4.9% compared to an increase of 5% last year and compares to a two-year compound rate of 8.7%. Average transaction value increased 7% and the number of transactions decreased 11.4%. ATV increases were driven primarily by higher value diamond jewelry coupled with declines in select lower average selling price points, such as our Charmed Memories. The Zales Jewelry operating segment’s total sales decreased 3.8% to $555 million. Comps were down 5.2% against the two-year comp increase of 8.2%. Average transaction value increased 2.4%, while the number of transactions declined 7.4%. Increases in higher price point diamond fashion jewelry and bracelets were more than offset by unit declines across all other merchandise categories. On a geography basis, our Zales US total sales decreased 3.5%, while comps decreased 4.9% against a two-year comp hurdle rate of 8.6%. In Canada, total sales declined 5.6% and comp sales were down 7.2% against a two-year comp rate of 5.8%. For the Zale Jewelry operating segment, declines were broad-based across merchandise categories and impacted by underperformance in the mall channel. Piercing Pagoda total sales increased 7.2% to $84 million, with comp sales up 5.7% and that’s on top of a 6.4% comp last year and a two-year comp rate of 9.1%. Average transaction value increased 12.7%, while the number of transactions declined 5.6%. Sales increases and ATV were driven by 14 karat gold, religious and children’s jewelry, while unit declines were driven primarily by fewer piercings. In the UK, our total sales decreased 19.5% to $228 million, but decreased 3.3% at constant currency rates. Comp sales declined 3.8% on top of a 4.7% increase in prior-year and a two-year comp hurdle rate of 12.2%. Average transaction value increased 8% and the number of transactions decreased 11.8%. Stronger sales of prestige watches and bridal jewelry were more than offset by lower sales in select fashion jewelry and fashion watches. So, moving on from sales, we’ll look at Signet’s consolidated and adjusted results. So, seen on slide 11, we’re presenting this reconciliation for the final time reflecting the impact of purchase accounting as well as IT implementation expenses associated with global systems that will drive future efficiencies and cost benefits. IT and other non-routine expenses, as well as purchase accounting, will be a factor in fiscal 2018, but these costs will be lower than FY 2017. As these costs are no longer unique to Signet and are becoming less material, we don’t believe it’s necessary to provide a separate presentation and non-GAAP reconciliation on a going forward basis. The difference between Signet and adjusted Signet on this slide are in the columns reflecting purchase accounting and integration costs. So, starting on the lower left portion of the slide, on a GAAP basis, earnings per share was $3.92. In the next column over, purchase accounting adjustments of $2.2 million were worth $0.03 of EPS dilution. This was driven primarily by deferred revenue adjustments related to acquisition accounting. The next column over reflects our integration costs, which relate primarily to consulting expenses associated with IT implementations, severance related to organizational changes and expenses associated with the settlement of miscellaneous legal matters pending as of the date of the Zale acquisition. Net integration cost of $6.1 million were responsible for $0.08 of EPS dilution. On an adjusted Signet basis, in the far-right column, by adding back the $0.11 worth of adjustments, our adjusted EPS was $4.03. So, going below the sales line of Signet’s adjusted P&L results, our adjusted gross margin was $947.2 million or 41.7% of adjusted sales, down 90 basis points. This decline was driven principally by lower sales, leading to deleverage on fixed costs as well as more promotional activity in the holiday period. This was partially offset by the adjusted gross margin rate improvement in the Zale division of 40 basis points as a result of a higher merchandise margin rate of 120 basis points associated primarily with synergy benefits. Adjusted SG&A was $603.8 million, and that is down $62.2 million from last year. Our SG&A rate of 26.6% leveraged 120 basis points despite lower sales due to expense reductions over the prior-year. The decline in dollars was driven primarily by lower variable compensation, including both short-term and long-term incentives, as well as other factors that I’ll elaborate in a minute. Other operating income was $59 million or 3% of sales. The increase of $5.3 million was due principally to higher interest income earned from higher outstanding receivable balances. Adjusted operating income was $412.4 million, down slightly by 1.4%. However, our adjusted operating margin rate was 18.1%, up 70 basis points due to strong operating expense management in a lower sales environment. Adjusted EPS was $4.03 compared to $3.63 last year, an increase of $0.40 or 11%, and that’s driven in part by a more favorable effective tax rate as well as fewer shares outstanding. So, taking a closer look at our adjusted SG&A, our teams continue to focus on cost controls and savings. Our adjusted SG&A expense declined $62.2 million or 9.3% in the fourth quarter. The cost control, coupled with synergy benefits, resulted in significant leverage as I previously noted. Within SG&A, the biggest expense component is payroll. Store and corporate payroll declined due primarily to lower variable compensation, which fluxes with sales, as well as lower corporate short-term and long-term incentive compensation. In addition, synergistic benefits around payroll also contributed in part to the decline. Favorable foreign exchange in the UK was also a factor. We reduced advertising expense, primarily in the Sterling division. This was due to a change in the mix of commercial spots and reductions in certain media, such as direct mail and catalog, that have a lower ROI associated with them. In other expenses, the main driver was lower merchant fees in the Zale credit program. These savings were partially offset by an increase in information technology projects which Mark had previously discussed. So, before we move on to a few balance sheet highlights, I want to touch briefly on synergies. In fiscal 2017, we delivered an incremental $120 million in synergies, for a cumulative two-year total of $180 million. Our synergies were primarily generated in gross margin and in part in SG&A related to the key activities that Mark had outlined. The FY 2017 synergies protected our profit and cash generation in what turned out to be a challenging year. The slowdown in our fiscal 2017 sales and its unfavorable impact to our profit, coupled with our IT investments, offset the financial contributions of our synergies. As we move into FY 2018, our focus will continue to be on additional gross margin cost savings and SG&A. So, moving on to P&L, I’ll focus on a few balance sheet highlights. So, for inventory, our year-end inventory position reflects the success of our continued focus on inventory optimization. Net inventory ended at $2.45 billion. Our teams did a good job of managing inventory levels in a slow environment. The flat inventory level, on a total annual sales decline of 2%, compared relatively well to many other retailers, many of whom have had less success managing inventory levels and generating cash in this highly promotional and challenging period. We saw sound, prudent management of inventory across categories and divisions. It’s also worth noting that the Zale division inventory declined at a faster rate than Signet overall. And this is directly related to the synergy-producing initiatives that Mark described earlier, which we call inventory turnover improvement. Finally, Signet benefited from foreign exchange on inventory procured in currencies other than the relatively strong US dollar. So, now, we’re going to turn our attention to our in-house credit metrics and statistics. Given the seasonality of credit sales and collections, it is much more instructive to look at full-year credit metrics rather than a quarter. Fiscal 2017 credit sales in the Sterling division were $2.44 billion, down 0.5%. Although lower, the in-house credit sales were more favorable than the division’s total sales decline and, therefore, gained relative share in the mix of tender. Our in-house credit predation was 62%, up 50 basis points on the relative strength of organic sales versus non-credit sales. Gross accounts receivable increased $96 million or 5% to $1.95 billion. The receivable grew even though credit sales and unit sales were down due to higher credit participation, a higher average transaction value on what was financed, and due to the collection rate. The average monthly payment collection rate for fiscal 2017 was 11% compared to 11.5% last year. Our monthly collection rate is calculated as cash payment received divided by the beginning accounts receivable. The decline in the collection rate is due principally to a continuation of the shift in credit plan mix and an increase in the average transaction value of what is getting financed. As a result, monthly payments are higher dollars, but lower as a percent of balances, thereby resulting in higher receivables outstanding to be collected. Interest income for finance charges, which makes up virtually all of the other operating income line on our income statement, was $278 million compared to $253 million last year. The increase of $25 million was due primarily to more interest income on the higher outstanding receivable base. Our net bad debt was $212 million compared to $191 million last year. As a percent of receivables, the nearly flat bad debt allowance, which you’ll see in a moment, was driven primarily by low receivable growth, which was a symptom of the overall sales decline. The net impact of bad debt and finance income generated an operating profit of $66 million, up $4 million from last year. So, now, I’ll take you through some of the key Sterling division allowance for doubtful account metrics. Our total valuation allowance, as a percent of gross receivables, was 7.1% in the fourth quarter. The slight increase of 10 basis points was driven by the impact of lower sales, leading to lower receivables growth. As new, current receivables come on to our portfolio more slowly than the steady and predictable growth in the allowance, it impacts our ratio a little unfavorably. On a sequential basis, the ratio was down 80 basis points, the same as prior year, reflecting seasonality changes. The non-performing portion of our receivables as a percent of the gross AR was 4.1% in Q4. This was unfavorable by 10 basis points both year-over-year and on a sequential basis due to the slower credit sales. So, before I move on to our financial guidance, just a few words about our credit strategic review. We are making great strides in evaluation of the alternative scenarios. An outsourced model would involve two lenders, a primary and a secondary. We have made progress in terms of our potential primary partner and we are heavily engaged in analysis and discussions with potential secondary partners. We have stated in the past, we are motivated to announce a resolution as quickly and as prudently as possible in order to remove uncertainty around this issue for all of our constituencies. So, a few highlights regarding capital allocation. Coming out of fiscal 2017, the key tenets of our capital allocation strategy remain in place. Strong balance sheet for flexibility, investment grade ratings, and adjusted leverage ratio goal of 3.5 times and distributing about three-quarters of our free cash flow through buybacks and dividend growth. We had a great year of free cash flow, generating $400 million, an increase of $184 million. We repurchased 11.2 million shares for about $1 billion, and that includes $625 million to offset dilution from our preferred convertible offering. This significant buyback activity demonstrates our commitment to providing shareholder value and our confidence in the long-term value of this company. And finally, as Mark has mentioned, we increased our dividend for the sixth year in a row. So, turning to our financial guidance, today, we are initiating annual guidance for fiscal 2018. Same-store sales are expected to be decrease a low to mid-single-digit percentage. While we’re confident in our strategic initiatives to drive business this year, we have also factored in three negative comp quarters in a row, a tough retail environment particularly through Valentine’s Day, and certain opportunities that may not come to fruition until holidays. We think modestly negative comp guidance is fair. While we’re not guiding quarterly comp sales, there are a few items that are worth highlighting. As published in our news release this morning, fiscal 2018 is a 53-week year, which has important timing implications for Q1 and Q2 around Mother’s Day. About 300 to 350 basis points of same-store sales and about $0.12 to $0.15 worth of EPS should shift between Q1 into Q2. In addition, the 53-week year also increases Q4 total sales, but has no impact on EPS for that period due to advertising expenses in that last week. The 53rd week is estimated to be worth about $75 million in sales and is excluded from comp sales calculation. Directionally, we would anticipate that our quarterly comp sales are affected by the anniversary that they are up against. We expect to leverage gross margin in fiscal 2018 with SG&A deleveraging. We anticipate synergies of about $70 million, in which $50 million of that is expected to flow through gross margin, which should produce leverage, while the remainder flows through SG&A. Key initiatives driving gross margin include repair, discounting, procurement, and corporate streamlining of our processes. From an SG&A perspective, key initiatives continue around organizational structure and payroll savings. We plan to continue investing in IT, which carries incremental expense, and as such, we anticipate SG&A to deleverage on lower sales. Key investments relate to omnichannel and other IT projects that will strengthen our customer service proposition and our infrastructure for the long-term. Earnings per share is expected to be $7 to $7.40. Now, keep in mind that this EPS range is as reported. Last year, integration costs, which were excluded from adjusted EPS, were $24 million. This year, they’ll be in a range of $13 million to $15 million and consist primarily of severance and IT implementation costs. Also, this year’s EPS will still have the effect of purchase accounting adjustments of approximately $17 million. This is flat to last year, but excluded in last year’s adjusted EPS. So, these expenses in FY 2017 do not go completely away in FY 2018. They just don’t warrant a non-GAAP presentation. The effective tax rate is expected to be 24% to 25%, driven by the jurisdictional mix of our pretax earnings. Tax reform agendas remain a priority in the US as well as outside of the US. Our effective tax rate guidance excludes any potential effect from tax reform. The weighted average common shares outstanding for the year should end up at about 74 million to 75 million shares. This includes the as-is converted impact of our convertible preferred shares. It does not include any impact from the resolution of our credit strategic review. When we complete the review, we will communicate any potential incremental impact to our share count. The mix of our capital expenditures will change in favor of technology and omnichannel investments. Consistent with that strategy, store square footage is projected to be flat to down slightly, primarily due to accelerating the number of regional store closings. With that, that concludes my prepared remarks and I’ll turn the call back over to Mark.