Ron Kruszewski
Analyst · Nomura. Your line is open
Thank you, Jim. Good afternoon to everyone. We’re pleased with our first quarter results which represent our third best revenue quarter on history that said, while investment banking was a good quarter our results on this item can and will be lumpy. Furthermore, we have incurred additional operating expenses specifically relating to enterprise risk management, audit and compliance relating to the build of our infrastructure and becoming a [indiscernible] company. Looking forward we’re optimistic about the continued growth in our business. In today's environment we see ample opportunities to continue to build a premier investment banking and wealth management firm. Before reviewing our results I would like to comment on the operating environment during the first quarter. The S&P and Dow was flat for the first quarter. Equity volumes were close to 7 billion shares traded per day essentially flat with the comparable period. The 10 year continued to decline by 25 basis points to close the quarter at 192 basis points. Although I would note that a substantial rise in the 10 year have occurred, we are currently yielding 227 basis points. Equity capital raising was strong up 45% and will comment on this in more detail in a minute. M&A announced and completed, the volumes were up 25% and 15% year-over-year and up a couple of points from year-end. In terms of equity flows our two important mix is the industry that I want to highlight. First, international funds appear to be growing by U.S. domestic funds and have been more than stagnant -- have been more stagnant. In the first quarter domestic equity mutual funds saw outflow of $2.7 billion, while international had inflows of $29 billion. And second, there is a growing trend of investment in the passive funds combining mutual funds and ETFs active domestic funds experienced outflows of $38 billion while passive domestic funds had inflow of 57 billion. Turning to our financial results for the quarter, non-GAAP net revenue was $564 million, an increase of 2.8% over the prior year but down 2.5% from a record fourth quarter. GAAP revenues were $561 million. On a non-GAAP basis excluding our merger expenses diluted was EPS was $0.65 on net income of -- or net income of $50 million. This compares to non-GAAP EPS of $0.68 a net income of $51.4 million in the first quarter last year. Non-GAAP pretax margin for the quarter fell about 1.2 to 14.3%, about half of the one point decline relate to the increased infrastructure cost which I will talk about in a moment. Turning to the next slide I want to provide some context around our results versus Street expectations. Our first quarter results fell short of consensus on top line revenues by $27 million. The myths versus expectation was mainly an investment banking which was $28 million lower than the Street. As I stated on our last call we had a terrific record fourth quarter investment banking but investment banking is going to be lumping. I'm pleased with our first quarter of $125 million and will give more color on this in a moment. I will also point out that the impact of the [indiscernible] both on revenue and expenses. As we stable all the $10 billion threshold we generate less revenue from the bank or simply from the expansion of our balance sheet and the additional compliance of regulatory cross hit expenses. Those expenses were approximately $3 million higher in Q1 of '14 as compared to Q1 of '13 and 2 million more than the fourth quarter. As I said this accounted for about half a point in pretax margin. Our core comp ratio was 62.5% slightly less than the 62.8% estimated by the Street. Finally our tax rate was 38.2% was higher than Street's have estimated about 37% and the resolve was a penny a share. So net-net our revenue net of compensation accounted for $0.07 and a higher tax rate accounted for a penny resulting the $0.08 difference as compared to Street estimates. I will now discuss our top line activity during the quarter, total brokerage revenues were down 1% to approximately $281 million but up 4% sequentially. In the first quarter we did not have the trading losses our fixed portfolio would have dragged down these revenues for the preceding two quarters. Investment banking revenues decreased 8% to 125 million from a 136 million in the first quarter of 2014 and decreased 28% record of 175 million in the first quarter. The decline in investment banking revenues is attributable to lower advisory fees which decreased 16% from Q1 of last year and 52% from our record fourth quarter of 2014. In both comparable periods we completed large deals which makes the comparison favorable to the first quarter where we did not complete any large M&A deals. As I said investment banking can be lumpy. Asset management service fee revenues were a record 114 million, the increase was due to an increase in assets under management in our fee based account. The quarter was also possibly impacted by the addition of 1919 Investment Council which attributed approximately $14 million. Other revenues increased primarily as a result of increase in gains realized on our investment. We had gains of approximately $5 million which was frankly a reversal of mark to mark losses in the fourth quarter. I would now discuss our brokerage and investment banking revenues. Total brokerage revenues increased 4s% from the prior quarter to 281 million. Global wealth management brokerage revenues were down slightly both sequentially and year-over-year, while the equity brokerage institutional equity decreased 4% and 8%. These two items were offset -- the declines were offset by fixed income which 5% and 45% from a week quarter a year ago. Total investment banking revenues was 125 million, a good quarter but not reflective of the revenue power we can generate. As we continue to build this business our results are lumpy as we get larger and move our business toward higher earning fee. Equity capital raising decreased 19% to about $49 million. Activity was slower as compared with the very strong first quarter of '14 where our strength FIG, tech, and healthcare were hitting on all cylinders. Overall market issuance level versus last year our larger dollar rate with the smaller in number of fields. IPO issuance is nearly half of last year, while follow-on levels are driven by large private equity monetization i.e. the large [indiscernible] deal, that’s an area where we just simply don't have as much market share. However, our equity back log was similar to last year singling a pickup in activity as the year progresses. Fixed income benefited from an increase in public finance revenues and also from the efforts of our new colleagues for merchant merge capital. In the quarter we underwrote 193 issues ranking a second in the nation in the terms of number of issues which was 93 last year. Our advisory revenues decreased 16% year-over-year to 49% which was down 52% from the fourth quarter, where we recognized a sizeable fee for our Miller Buckfire work, bankruptcy work with the City of Detroit. In our experience, it is not unusual to have a stronger fourth quarter relative to the first quarter especially in M&A as our clients focus on completing transactions prior to year-end. In the first quarter as I’ve said we did not close any large sizable deals, however, second quarter visibility is good with several larger transaction expected to close including the BF system sale, [indiscernible] by site transaction and also the Susquehanna sale to BB&T is slated for early third quarter of 2015, these are all large notable transactions. In terms of U.S. M&A the dollar volume is being driven by a number of very large transaction with the number of transactions that’s trending flat. Stifel continues to see a strong M&A pipeline of appeals that arise in the closing process or mandated in slight of the second half of the year. The next slide reviews our core non-interest expenses for the quarter excluding non-core expense as comp benefits of net revenues was 62.5 million similar to a year ago, transition pay as a percentage of net revenue is still large at 4.1%. The core non-compensation operating expenses were a $130.6 million or 23.2% of net revenues. The increase in this line item over a year ago quarter is related to first an in increase due to an increase in number of location. Communication and code equipment is up due to our continued expansion efforts and an increase in professional fees due primarily to higher consultancies associated with maintaining compliance with regulatory requirements. The next slide slows the results of our reporting segments. Global wealth management revenues increased 11% from the year ago quarter and 6% from the fourth quarter to a record $329 million. The operating contribution increased 24% to 99 million. We are very pleased with the 30% margin in the segment. The institutional group hosted net revenues of $239 million and the operating contribution declined of 32 million, margins were 13.5 % or 13.6% to be precise. Turning to the next slide on global wealth management, the increase in net revenues for first quarter of '14 is primarily attributable to growth in asset management, service fees and commissions in net interest revenue. This was offset by a decrease in principal transactions in investment banking revenue. Comp benefits came in at 55.6% in the quarter and non-comp operating expenses were 14.4% of net revenues. At this time I would like to comment as we have received numerous question on the Department of Labors proposed fiduciary standard for retirement accounts and the impact on Stifel. First of all, the deal proposal exceedingly complicated and absent major modification would negatively impact investor choice, restrict investor access to education and increase cost for investors in the firms that serve them. In disrupting the market for retirement savings, the proposals negative impact on investors will largely be borne by those who can least afford it, lower and middle income retirement savers. This proposal incentivized those firms to move individuals to fee based accounts which might not be their choice nor the best results for those investors. Today investors can choose to work fee based investment advisors or commission based broker dealers. The vast majority of investors particularly with those with small account balances choose to work with the non-managed broker dealers, 98% of IRA investors with accounts balance of less than $25,000 are in brokerage relationship . For Stifel, 26% of our total AUM are at IRA, and of the IRA assets under management, 80% of those are non-managed IRA. The deal proposal in effect almost mandates the non-managed IRAs becomes managed. When I think about the impact on investors primarily the small investors we would charge our non-managed account if we would charge our non-managed account the same rate as our managed IRA account we would increase the fees on these revenues by 75%. I do not want to predict what investors will do but the basic premise of this proposal limits choice and simply cost more. Again, from a pure business perspective on a space of this proposal will raise revenue, but again, for certainly my viewpoint, it's really embraces cost not only on smaller investors but on firms that need to invest a lot to comply with this proposal. I expect the industry is going to be view this proposals unworkable, there is going to be lot of comments about it. Turning to next slide on Stifel Bank, bank of total assets are generally flat year-end or up 5.5% year-over-year. However loans the total assets the ratio of 47% from 32% from a year ago and getting closer to our stated goal of getting to 50:50 loans to investment. Gross total loans grew by 9% in Q1 at 55% nearly a $1 billion year-over-year. Net interest margin decreased to 2.46% Q1 of '15 mainly due to an increase in prepayments on the age of SMBs portfolio. The bank continues to be positively exposed to rising interest rates given the general insured effective duration of our bonds and loans. NPls and NPA is for 29 basis points to 13 basis points respectively, past due loans as a parentage total loans at the end of Q1 was 56 basis points. Security based loans drove the growth in our portfolio during the first quarter increasing 17% and 61% year-over-year and now total 858 million. Commercial loans increased 2% in the quarter to approximately 1 billion. Non-redemptions at run-off funded the loan growth as we held off crossing 10 billion in total [indiscernible] assets which were triggered DFAS requirement. As I mentioned in our last call we intend to stay at 10 billion through the third quarter of this year and plan to resume our historical growth rate and our balance sheet in the fourth quarter and beyond. Given our lack of large debit charge revenues the implications across grew 10 billion are most limited to the infrastructure being built for stress test and risk management which as I’ve said we’re incurring now and have been incurring and [indiscernible] which impacts a lot of banks across 10 billion really has minimal impact on Stifel. The next slide for our institutional group results for the quarter, institutional group revenues were down 4.6% that came in at 238.6 million, a decrease was due to declines in equity capital raising and advisory fees and equity brokerage revenues offset by increases in fixed income. Comp investments as a percentage of net revenue was 62.6% while non-comp expense ratio was 23.8%. This ratio remains elevated, it does reflect investments we made in the segment. However travel, conferences, occupancy, professional services were all up over the last year and again I think this is revenue issued this quarter on a percentage basis as it is just expensed. However as a result lower profit margin was due to lower revenues and obviously higher non-comp operating expenses. Next slide, we review our capital structure. Total assets were 9.4 billion a 2% decrease from March 31 last year and also from December 31 of '14. The decrease was due to a decline in the investment portfolio offset slightly by an increase in the loan portfolio. Our debt to equity ratio at the end of the quarter was 22.5% Tier 1 leverage 17.5% and our Tier 1 risk based capital ratio came in at it's high at nearly 30%. I will discuss that in a moment. The next slide looks at our balance sheet growth overtime, we have grown our balance sheet since 2008 at the beginning of the financial crisis, we have grown our balance sheet at an compound annual growth rate of 43% and that’s from 2008 through 2013 when we got to almost 9.5 billion but since then we have maintained assets below 10 billion level and that’s really flat or flat growth for '13-'14 in the first quarter of '15. To anticipate a question I regularly get regarding our capital plans, we continue to regularly review capital deployment matters with our Board, particularly so given the obvious very strong excess capital levels we currently enjoy. We consider all of our alternative including the institution of a regular dividend, utilization of our already offering [ph] stock to purchase program and of course future needs in our business. Our current thinking is that there are significant opportunities presented to Stifel through first the acquisition of Sterne Agee which is expected to close at the end of the month, second the desire to grow the assets of the firm rapidly at the point when we cross the 10 billion asset regulatory threshold later this year and finally other opportunities that we see and currently see for business expansion. So our current thinking particularly as it relates to distribution of the dividend is that it's a subject that we should address at year-end and not today. I assure that we’re focused on these matters including particularly the timing of instituting a dividend, keeping in mind that Stifel is first and foremost a growth company and that we’re optimistic about our ability to deploy our capital to execute on the various opportunities that present themselves to us. Turning to other financial data as of March 31, total stockholders' equity was 2.4 billion book value per share, 34.83, our leverage ratio was 3.2 times, advisor headcount declined by a net [indiscernible]. In the first quarter we deal with mostly retirement and low-end producers that don’t meet our minimum requirements of the first quarter phenomenon for us but we also hired 32 new FAs during the quarter. Total consolidated [ph] assets reached a 188.6 billion up 12% from last year and 1% from the fourth quarter, 1919 investment comps were about 9 billion in client assets in Q4. Now some comments our acquisition and strategic vision, simply put our goal is to build a premier investment banking in wealth management firm, our growth is both organic and via acquisition. When we look across our two segment we strive to build on our capability basically at three businesses. Under global wealth three businesses, our private client business, our asset management businesses at Stifel Bank and fourth, broad businesses under institutional which is equities and fixed income, sales and trading, investment banking and research. Turning to the next slide I’ve been asked many times how much our organic growth versus acquisition contributes to our result primarily top line growth. As the way to illustrate this if you compare our 2004 revenues prior to our 2005 transformation of Legg Mason Capital Markets acquisition to pro forma revenues today, acquisitions have contributed 55% to revenues in organic growth that contributed to 45%. We have broken it out further by segment business lines, for example Stifel has mainly is organic growth. First Service revenues of bank we bought were negligible and Acacia as an acquisition was really minimal whereas our institutional business had almost -- mostly result of the professional we brought on board to Stifel via mergers. As always we will continue to position Stifel to take advantage of opportunities with the strategic objectives of the first ensuring the financial transaction that are accretive to our shareholders and to the partners that we’re bringing on Board and second of all with the businesses that we do makes people more relevant in the marketplace. Now turning to our Stern Agee acquisition, we expect to close the deal on or around the end of this month. We are very pleased to announce that 100% of Stern Agee traditional financial advisors have agreed and signed agreement to join Stifel and my experience of doing transactions of you never had 100%, being a lot maybe 99% but we have never had 100% of the Stifel offer retention not only take the retention but frankly very excited to join us. I'm very pleased with what's going on with what’s going on with the private client group at Sterne Agee. We have also announced the Sterne Age's institutional equities business, including equity sales trading and research will join CRT Capital Group, we have accomplished our goal of keeping approximately a 150 to 160 professionals together so that they can continue their career as a team. We feel good about this transaction and while I'm not updating the numbers at this point but the sales of these business exceeded our expectation. We’re able to generate proceeds and eliminate significant expenses i.e. of 7 year lease in New York which we did not originally come at the time of the acquisition or count on frankly that we would be able to do this deal. We also announced that Sterne Agee and Stephens Inc recent agreement were by five Managing Directors of the depository investment banking group of Sterne will join Stephens and it connect smooth our merger we have agreed to sell the mortgage business back to the founders. One last point which I think highlights the merits of this deal are Sterne Agee's annualized revenues based on the last two months we announced the merger. Global wealth management annual revenues and well I should say, the last two months annualized are a 190 million and fixed income annualized last two months is approximately 130 million currently at 320 million run-rate which is within our estimated range of revenues of approximately 300 million to 325 million but frankly also is not really our experience, we generally see between announcement and closing of rather significant decline in historical revenues both from the uncertainty and just what happens in merger. So the people in these two divisions have continued to work and talk to their clients and we’re very pleased with the results of those business and are looking forward to closing this transaction at the end of this month. The next slide reviews our non-core deal cost, in the quarter we incurred 10.7 million of pretax expenses, 6.8 million after-tax related to recent acquisition, these are how we look at acquisitions, a lot of our economic investment and acquisitions the way we evaluate them. We run through the P&L because of accounting rules. We estimate, and disclose it. Also included in this number is 2.7 million which was incurred to refinance our growth as we refinance our 6.7 bonds or at for our fourth quarter tenure bonds, but when we refinance that we had to write-off issuance cost of $2.7 million. In connection with Sterne Agee we expect the expense a bulk of the non-core expenses in the second quarter of this current quarter comprised of stock based comp;. of 32 million and duplicative expenses of approximately 20 million. The remainder is a quarterly estimate of non-core expenses rolling off by the second quarter of '16. In conclusion we had a good start to the year, we’re well-positioned to continue to gain market share in our businesses, we have excess capital to deploy and we will continue to evaluate all of our options. Our strategy at the bank remains to grow modestly until we have met all the regulatory requirements and then accelerate growth. So with that I will open the call up for questions.