Ron Kruszewski
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Thank you, Jim. Good afternoon everyone. Exciting time here at your company and I am pleased to welcome you to our call. We had a strong finish to the year and are excited to report that 2014 was our 19th consecutive year of record net revenues. Both the Global Wealth Management and Institutional Group, both of them, generated record revenues and record pre-tax operating income for 2014. We continue to add capabilities and talented professionals in our pursuit of building the preeminent brokerage and investment banking firm. Today, I am very pleased to announce the acquisition of Sterne Agee, which bolsters our Global Wealth Management segment with the addition of more than 700 financial advisors and independent representatives nationwide managing over $20 billion in client assets, and this acquisition also complements and significantly enhance our Fixed Income platform, which will generate significant scale. So I will discuss the Sterne Agee deal after we review earnings. Before I turn to our results, I’d like to add a little color on the operating environment during the fourth quarter. For the quarter, S&P was up 4% and the Dow was up 5%. As measured by the VIX, volatility increased 21% which helped the equity volumes which finished up 23% with an average of 7 billion shares traded per day and this corresponded also the solid quarter for our equity commissions. The 10-year declined 32 basis points to close the year at 217 basis points. Interestingly, equity mutual fund flows were negative despite the positive market and inflows were down 73% for the year. Equity capital raising from a dollar value was down 25% in the fourth quarter and debt capital raising was essentially flat. M&A announcements were down in the quarter but completed deal values were up about 50%. And with the decline in the 10-year, the equity risk premium was approximately 300 basis points as compared to 250 basis points at the end of 2013. So against that somewhat mixed operating environment, I'm very pleased with our company's results. So looking at our results, we had a GAAP net revenues were a record quarterly revenues of $578 million, up 2.5% over the prior year and up 10% sequentially. GAAP EPS from continuing operations was $0.59. As you know, we do exclude merger-related charges. So on a non-GAAP basis, diluted EPS was $0.75 on net income of $58.4 million. Our GAAP effective tax rate was 34.5% and was impacted really by the release of a valuation allowance primarily on foreign net operating losses that we now believe are more likely than not to be realizable in future. Our non-GAAP pretax margin for the quarter, well actually exceeded our target, came in at 15.5%. Turning to next slide, we thought it’d be beneficial to comment on our results versus Street expectations. We've been trying to do this. As I said, we had a great quarter to finish the year. Our investment banking revenues were strong, coming in $18 million higher than estimates. It is important to note that I always do when we have a great investment banking quarter, that investment banking revenues and especially advisory revenues are lumpy. So I always encourage people not to annualize those numbers either when they are high or when they're low, which now they can tend to be both. Two items of note, on the other side, banking was very positive. On the negative side, principal revenues missed Street consensus by $26 million and a significant part of that miss was frankly in trading. Our trading accounts or trading losses produced a $7 million delta in the quarter. So it was $7 million versus what we would normally expect on average to be. And other revenues were negatively impacted by losses recorded in investments. Significantly one investment that had a large mark-to-market loss. That totaled in combination a little over $7 million. I would note that the investment has rebounded, it’s a publicly traded investment, in the first quarter but the combination of those two items was, on the revenue side was $14 million that they were somewhat unusual. Comp. Turning to expenses, comps came in at 61.5% versus expectations of 62.3%. So that was positive. However this was offset by higher non-comp expenses. The primary drivers of the miss, if you will, or the reason our non-comp was higher was that we incurred a $2.2 million legal settlement and a matter which I am pleased to have behind us and we also had a charitable contribution of $3 million which was more than -- which would've driven -- those two items together pretty much account for the $5 million over expectation on non-comp OpEx. Our non-GAAP tax rate was lower and shares were slightly higher. So, net, net, net these items resulted in a $1 million net income shortfall or $0.02 in EPS versus expectations but in my opinion, when I look at all of this, I think that the unusual items are more unusual on the negative side than the fact that we had a very good banking quarter. So I am just very pleased with our results and feel that it shows the kind of firm that we’ve been building through the investments that we have made. Looking at the next slide. As I said record, revenues for 2014 $2.2 billion, up 12% for the year. On a non-GAAP basis, our EPS was a record $2.76 compared to $2.51. On a GAAP basis, that was $2.35 a share. For the year, our non-GAAP comp and benefits was 62.3% and non-comp operating expenses 22.5%. So all in all, to have 15% margin is what our target is, it’s all that we've been doing. I am pleased with those results. I will now discuss our top line activity during the quarter. Brokerage revenues were flat at $269 million and up 4% sequentially. As I said, we had trading loss as compared to where we normally have trading gains that I’ve already addressed that. Investment banking revenues increased 8% to a record $175 million, from $161 million but also increased 42% sequentially. The increase was a result of a very strong advisory quarter which increased 18% from the prior year. In the quarter, as an example, we received our final payment for the advisory work that we performed the city of Detroit by Miller Buckfire and that was a very positive event. Overall I want to comment and I have been especially pleased with our growth in investment banking. As a way of backdrop, in 2008 we recorded total investment banking revenues of $84 million. In 2014, our investment banking revenues totaled $579 million. That’s almost a seven-fold increase, and it underscores the investments that we've made to bolster this business. Asset management service fees increased 26% or record $106 million. As always, it’s due to an increase in assets under management, our fee based accounts and some market performance. The quarter was also positively impacted by the addition of 1919 Investment Counsel and Ziegler which both contributed nicely to the quarter. Our other item was negatively impacted again by the losses recorded on our investments of $7.2 million compared to a gain of $1.5 million in 2013. So the other thing I would note is that when you look at net interest income, it appears to be down sequentially. We had – there were some accounting entries in the third quarter that positively impacted that. So I think that’s most of the top line results. I’ll turn now to our brokerage and investment banking revenues. Global wealth brokerage revenues were up slightly 1% year-over-year while institutional brokerage revenues were flat. Equity brokerage, on one hand, was up 14%, but was offset by a decline in fixed income of 18%. So total brokerage was up 3.3% and exceeded for the first time over $1 billion. Investment banking at a record fourth quarter, as I said, $175 million in revenue and a record year. For the year, equity capital raising increased 27% to $232 million and our advisory increased 36% to $273 million in advisory fees. Our investment banking results highlighted the reserve [ph] capabilities we are building at Stifel. For example, Stifel ranked number one as the most active 2014 midmarket investment bank in terms of M&A with 62 completed transactions totaling $8.7 billion. We continue to build a leading middle market M&A franchise by consistently ranking in the top three for completed transactions under $1 billion. Miller Buckfire ranked number two in the fourth quarter with 702 billion, the way we measure their business. In volume for an investment bank in 2014, Miller Buckfire completed a number of notable assignments, including the city of Detroit, almost $17 billion municipal restructuring and $975 million out-of-court restructuring for iPayment. Stifel’s public finance group, including our acquired firms, led the nation in a number of negotiated issues in 2014, serving as sole or senior manager for 586 transactions with a total par value of over $11 billion. We're also number one in national K-12 financing, number one in assessment district, number one in multifamily housing, and number one in national TIF financing. So that business is also showing the growth and as you know at the end of the year and I’ll come do it, we had completed a merger with Merchant Capital which would bolster our abilities in the South-eastern section in the United States. Looking forward, with backlog our equity capital markets business, issuance levels are below last year's level and that’s true for IPOs and follow-ons. And our backlog generally mirrors this. Our market share is steady but market volumes are lower. In terms of M&A, while the broader M&A markets have moderated slightly from their hectic pace in 2014, we continue to see a very robust pipeline of M&A mandates across-the-board. The next slide reviews our core non-interest expenses for the quarter. Excluding non-core expenses, comp and benefits as a percentage of net revenues was at the low end of our stated goal; they came in at 61.5. It was the same as the year ago quarter. Transition pay, which is our investments over the past is where we pay above our model for people that we bring on board, as a percentage of net revenue, it was 4%. Core non-comp operating expenses were $132.8 million and I have already given the reasons for the increase and the quarterly non-comp again being a legal settlement and charitable. The next slide reviews, for the full year our non-interest expenses, we came in on target in terms of comp and benefits as a percentage of net revenues of 62.3% and we maintained our target goal of 62 to 64. Core non-comp operating expenses were $498 million or 22.5% of net revenues. After we review and update our projections, I will provide guidance on forward non-comp operating expenses. We will probably have a call to update some of the numbers for forward-looking on things like that prior to the first quarter earnings, but I am not prepared at this point to provide a projection for non-comp operating expenses in 2015. Next slide shows the results of our reporting segments. For the year, global wealth management, record net revenues of $1.2 billion, up 10% from the prior year and operating contribution of $347 million. And our institutional group, record net revenues of nearly $1 billion, an increase of 16% and operating contribution [37%]. Global wealth management has been steady and growing, another great quarter, margins of 27%. The increase in net revenues as compared to the prior year fourth quarter is primarily attributable to our growth in asset management and service fees and increased cash flows as well as the contributions from Ziegler and 1919. We have increased net interest revenues due to the change in mix between investments and loans at Stifel Bank, primarily that’s the reason, and an increase in commission revenues which is offset by a decline in other income and principal transaction. Turning to the next slide of Stifel Bank. Bank total assets stayed consistent, of around $5 billion. However as I previously mentioned, our strategy is to increase loans as a percentage of our total assets. And loans as a percentage of total assets grew to 43% of interest-earning assets from 31 at the end of 2013. Loan balances grew 11% in the quarter and 47% for the year. This transition, as we’ve talked about the transitions from loans out of the investment account would result in an increase in our NIM, or net interest margin and that's true here in that our NIM stood at 2.87 versus 2.34 at the end of 2013. The bank is asset sensitive and will benefit from rising rates. Looking at asset quality, non-performing loans and non-performing assets were [25] and 11 basis points respectively. Trailing 12 month charge-offs were zero and reserves now covering NPLs are at 373%, a very robust credit statistics. Securities based loans decreased 17% for the quarter and 44% for the year to almost $750 million, $733 million to be exact. We like this business, securities based loans, this asset class is highly complementary with our global wealth management business, has attractive spreads and carries a zero risk weighting in terms of the new risk rating rules. And frankly, this business has a lot of runway for us in that I think we've only tapped about 3% of the assets that could be there to support securities based lending or line of credit. So that’s a business that we like and will continue to grow. The mortgage portfolio increased $60 million to $433 million. We believe these are high quality loans sourced in the Acacia acquisition and we do source loans and portfolio loans through our private client group. Commercial loans increased 8% in the quarter and 62% for the year. They stand at $900 million. These are primarily variable-rate senior secured term loans and revolvers. They are generally rated credits, nearly half of which are investment grade. Loans continue to be sourced through large indication banks and on the commercial side secondary market purchase into a lesser extent through investment banking in St. Louis based credit facilities. Loan underwriting is traditional in nature with all credits individually research underwritten and reviewed and approved by the bank’s loan committee. I will say it’s fully independent of the investment bank. Also if you look at the SNC review, more than 80% of the portfolio is reviewed in the interagency Shared National Credit process. None of the bank’s credits are criticized and as comparison in the nationwide review, about 10% of credits are criticized. Again I am pointing to the asset quality. We have a diversified portfolios. Securities based loans, mortgages and C&I loans are diversified geographically and by industry, financial services of 17%, consumer and retail 16%, diversified industry is 12%, technology 8%, healthcare at 7%. So bond redemptions and runoff, when you look – turn to the loan portfolio it’s the bond redemption and run-off has funded loan growth as we held off crossing $10 billion in total consolidated assets, which would trigger DFAS requirements. Looking forward, it’s our plan to stay $10 billion through the third quarter of 2015. I believe that will be over $10 billion in the fourth quarter and we will then at that point with the infrastructure and all the things that we believe we need to do that meets all the requirements and doesn’t put any limitations on our growth, frankly, we will then prudently grow the bank in excess of that $10 billion number. The next slide looks at our institutional group results. For the full year, institutional group revenues were up 15% to a record $994 million. Comp and benefits was 62.4, non-comp came in at 22. Pretax operating income increased 7% to $153 million. Turning to our capital structure. Total assets are $9.5 billion, it's just up 6% from the end of the year. Our debt to equity ratio at the end of the quarter was 30.5%. Pro forma debt to equity which excludes as I have told you before, we called our 6.7% senior notes on January 15. So we’re now at 22.9%. Our tier 1 risk-based capital ratio remains robust at 25% and we continue to analyze our use of capital through various strategies that I have discussed in the past. Looking at other financial data. Stockholders’ equity stood at $2.3 billion, book value per share stands at $35. Our leverage ratio, very conservative 3.1 times, the way we define leverage. So again we’re very conservatively levered up as a company. At the end of the year we had 2103 financial advisors. During the quarter we hired 25 advisors and for the full year we hired 122. Client assets totaled 186 – almost 187 billion, 13% increase from last year. So again all in all a very very good year. Turning to turn Sterne Agee. We've identified a great firm in Sterne Agee to bolster our global wealth management group with the addition of more than 700 financial advisors and independent representatives, increasing our advisor professionals by 35%. And importantly, Sterne Agee’s fixed income platform is highly complementary to our existing products and services and together we’ll catapult this business to a new level, continuing the momentum we've established with the addition of Knight's fixed income sales and trading business. This acquisition furthers our goal of creating a balanced well diversified business mix with both wealth management and our institutional business. So I also want to, I think I’d like to thank Eric Needleman, Chairman of Sterne Agee Group and CEO of Sterne Agee Leach. Eric is a consummate financial services professional and has been a tremendous leader of the Sterne Agee businesses during a difficult transition period. We at Stifel recognize Eric’s skills as a leader and at least as importantly recognize his outstanding talents in building and guiding a world-class fixed income business. He has tracked and led one of the most experienced and talented teams in our industry. We and he are excited by a desire to join with the new Stifel colleagues to lead and build our combined fixed income franchise to one of the premier ones on Wall Street. Eric has more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry, including co-head of the US market making and head of high-yield sales, trading and research at KBC Financial Products. He also served at executive positions at Lehman Brothers and Granchester Securities which is a high-yield division of Wasserstein Perella. Eric’s leadership has been critical in bringing our two companies together and we look forward to his contributions as we move forward as one company. And I think Eric is on the call with me and Eric, welcome and –