Earnings Labs

Sealed Air Corporation (SEE)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 25, 2025

$42.15

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2024 Sealed Air Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Mark Stone. Please go ahead.

Mark Stone

Management

Thank you. And good morning, everyone. Before I begin our prepared remarks, I'd like to introduce myself. I am Mark Stone, Sealed Air's new Vice President of Investor Relations. Brian Sullivan now serves as our company's treasurer. I'm glad to be here this morning and look forward to engaging with our investor community. With me today are Dustin Semach, our newly appointed president and CEO, and Ronnie Johnson, our recently named interim CFO. Before we begin our call, I would like to note that we have provided a slide presentation to supplement the call. Please visit sealedair.com where today's webcast and presentation can be downloaded from our investor relations page. Statements made during this call stating management's outlook or estimates for future periods are forward-looking statements. These statements are based solely on information that is now available to us. We encourage you to review the information in the section entitled forward-looking statement in our earnings release and slide presentation which applies to this call. Additionally, our future performance may differ due to a number of factors. Many of these factors are listed in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K as revised and updated on our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and current reports on Form 8-K. We discuss financial measures that do not conform to US GAAP. You will find important information on our use of these measures and their reconciliation to US GAAP in our earnings release. Included in the appendix of today's presentation you will find US GAAP financial results that correspond to the non-US GAAP measures we reference throughout the presentation. I will now turn the call over to Dustin and Ronnie. Operator, please turn to slide three.

Dustin Semach

Management

Thank you, Mark. And thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to address the recent CEO transition. Let me start by saying I am very grateful for the opportunity and privilege to be Sealed Air's CEO. I couldn't be more excited about our future. I recognize that quick changes at the CEO level can raise concerns for all of our stakeholders. Let me assure you, our strategy has not changed. We continue to execute against the plans developed under my leadership as co-CEO and president, and those initiatives are already taking hold. Over the past two years, we have stabilized our business performance, rebuilt our leadership team, strengthened our balance sheet, and transformed back into two market-focused business segments: food and protective. While we have made significant progress, there is much work ahead of us to improve outcomes for our customers and shareholders and we plan to accelerate the pace of execution from here. I am partnering with our board, segment presidents, and the rest of the Sealed Air team to meet these challenges head-on with urgency as we continue our transformation journey. With that, I'm excited to give an update on how we closed out 2024 and provide insight into our ongoing transformation in 2025. We exceeded our expectations in the fourth quarter, including coming in higher than our guided midpoint across adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow, and driving constant currency sales growth. We have now consistently delivered against expectations for six straight quarters, reflecting improved discipline and fundamentals and better commercial execution. The strength of our food business more than offset the challenges in protective throughout 2024. Excluding the restoration of our incentive compensation pools, we drove mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth despite a sales decrease of…

Ronnie Johnson

Management

Thank you, Dustin, and good morning, everyone. It's a privilege to step into this interim CFO role and I look forward to engaging with you all. Let's turn to slide four to review Sealed Air's fourth quarter performance. Net sales were $1.4 billion in the quarter, up 1% on a constant currency basis and were $5.4 billion for the full year, down 1% at constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $271 million, down 1% compared to last year as reported. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $1.11 billion, relatively flat with the prior year. As reported, adjusted EPS in the quarter of $0.75 was down 15% compared to a year ago. Our adjusted tax rate was 28% in the quarter, compared to 18% in the same period last year, which benefited from the reversal of liabilities related to uncertain tax positions. We did not repurchase any shares in the quarter. Our weighted average diluted shares outstanding was 146 million. For the year, adjusted EPS of $3.14 was down 1% primarily driven by higher tax expense partially offset by lower net interest. Turning to slide five. Reported sales were flat in the quarter as volume growth was negated by FX headwinds. On a constant currency basis, sales were up 1% on higher volumes, reflecting strength in food, partially offset by continued declines in protective. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $271 million decreased $3 million or 1% compared to last year, with a margin of 19.7%, down 20 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA performance reflects positive volume and productivity benefits including cost takeout action, offset by the restoration of our incentive compensation pool and unfavorable net price realization. Moving to slide six. Food sales of $923 million for the quarter were up 5% on an organic basis primarily due to…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Our first question comes from Anthony Pettinari of Citi. Your line is now open.

Anthony Pettinari

Analyst

Good morning. Dustin, assuming protective volumes remain negative in the first half, are there parts of that business that you expect to be maybe a significantly larger drag on volumes than kind of the segment average? Or conversely, are there parts of the business that are already seeing a volume inflection?

Dustin Semach

Management

Yes. So, Anthony, again, thank you for the question. And a couple of comments on that. If you actually look at the past year, it's very similar trends that we talked about in '24 as you're going into '25. If you think about in '24, our industrial portfolio was largely down and of the mid-single digits perspective from a volume. And there were some bright spots in there largely our shrink films. And then in fulfillment, it was down to high single digits. And that was really the areas we've talked about historically around Polyvoid fill as well as our Poly Mailers. Finger pressure point on the fulfillment side being offset by our APS business, which again was positive volumes in '24. When you think about '25, we expect those similar trends to continue with one major difference is part of what you're experiencing in the first half relative to having lighter volumes, and we kind of see the first half being in that, you know, the core first quarter being the high single digit, and you're looking in the mid-single digit range in the second quarter. And then evening out the second half. And what you're doing there is wrapping on some of the large churn we had in the prior year. And these are the items we discussed publicly around some of the fill air business, particularly from Amazon, that we lost as they converted into fully paper voice mail.

Anthony Pettinari

Analyst

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just switching gears, I think in your guidance, you said that you're only contemplating tariffs that have been enacted. I guess there's all kinds of scenarios we could imagine, but can you talk about maybe just some of the sensitivities in terms of, you know, what regions are you moving product cross-border or maybe customers have specific sensitivities or, I mean, when you look at Mexico, Canada, Europe, China, like, where is the potential impact to Sealed Air?

Dustin Semach

Management

Sure. And so and then keep in mind, go back to some of the frame of the script, which is, you know, the comments we made around the tariffs are in fact, this is largely the new Chinese tariffs that were put into effect about thirty days ago. Which we don't see as having any material impact on our business. This is a small portion of protective that'll be important to the US. As it relates to the broader comments I made, which is most of our business is domestic production for domestic consumption, which really prevents that issue holistically. But in our North American business, we do trade both with Mexico as well as Canada, which is where you would see the most pronounced potential impact for us. I think potential because, again, if you go back to the comments in the script, right now at this point in time, we're making shifts in our supply chain to accommodate that as well. And then, obviously, if we need to pass through costs, you know, to our customers, we will do that if necessary.

Anthony Pettinari

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. For our next question, we have Ghansham Panjabi of Baird. I want to reiterate, we will allow one question per participant.

Josh Spector

Analyst

Good morning. It's actually Josh Dessley on for Ghansham. Thanks for taking my question and Dustin, congratulations on the new role. Maybe Dustin, and I know you gave some detail in the prepared remarks, but if you could just from a high-level standpoint give us some additional color on what your initial priorities will be for the company's CEO, whether that might be potentially rightsizing any recent changes within the organization, maybe acceleration in cost outs, etcetera. Just any color there would be great.

Dustin Semach

Management

Hey, Josh. Of course. And thank you for the question and congratulations. So a couple of comments I'll make, and I go back to what we discussed earlier, which is really I break it down to three buckets. The first being this acceleration around our customer focus. And, again, I go back to the comments we made, which is what's been great in the fourth quarter is we finally brought to market fully our food and protective business. And operationalizing both those businesses in terms of fully integrating our commercial innovation supply chain teams. I think about the priorities going forward, it's about this relentless focus on the customer. I talked about some of the initiatives in protective that were already in place and for protective is largely about executing against those initiatives now. That they're fully kind of implemented. Within food, specifically, we talked about the fact that we see some pressure in shrink bags largely due to our exposure to the industrial protein markets. And our focus is really on case ready and fluid solutions because retail end markets they serve represent higher growth for us. But to do that effectively, you have to rethink your go-to-market, you have to rethink innovation. And that's in combination with the work that we're doing with Steve. We're working through that process now. We expect that yield results in 2025. So first acceleration is really making those two pivots the higher growth areas for food, and as well as protective continuing to stabilize that business. The second piece as we mentioned in the, you know, in the script as well really around your point around accelerating cost takeout. And one of the really positives about going to this new operating model that gives us, you know, more visibility to the cost structure of each business. And so we're more intentional now going forward. But again, trying to be proactive, particularly in protective, where you may see more volume weakness as we go and making sure that we're getting ahead of that going forward in combination with the cost takeout that we took in the fourth quarter as well. So the third piece and the last comment I'll make is around, again, the piece around leadership. Again, really pleased where we're at from total company leadership as well as some of our in-market teams. But we're gonna have to as we go forward throughout this year, we're gonna continue to make those adjustments make sure we have the right people in the right positions to ensure that we're successful going forward and largely thinking around having that kind of growth-oriented mindset.

Operator

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question is for Phil Ng of Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Phil Ng

Analyst

Hey, guys. Congratulations, Dustin, Ronnie, and Mark in your new respective roles, and good luck with that. My question is on protective. Dustin, I guess, you're calling for a back half ramp up, volumes a little more pressure in the first half. Is the weakness in the first half largely the Amazon hangover or you're seeing more pressure in certain pockets? It just feels like demand's been a little choppy here. Then on the pricing side too, what are you seeing on that front? Are you seeing more heightened competition? And then lastly, you talked about scaling up auto bag and your fiber mailer. That process has been probably a little slower than I would have expected. How do you kind of see that ramping perhaps year going to '26?

Dustin Semach

Management

Alright, Phil. I appreciate that. And I'll break down your question into three parts. The first one is just kind of the first half in protective. And it is. It's a mix of, you know, continued, I would say, underperformance, but more but split between the underperformance in the business that we're experiencing kind of in Q4. As well as the hangover from Amazon, but also a couple of other customer churns that we had in Q1. I think the really important point to leave you with there is that going into this year, we're in a better position from a churn perspective than we have been in the prior two years. Right? So on a positive note, particularly as it comes to more material customers. And so that's been a positive piece. And then the second piece is we talked about that change in the go-to-market model particularly in North America. Some of the changes we're making, and it does take time to work through that transition. So we expect some choppiness, you know, as we continue to work through that in the first quarter, and then you expect the benefits starting in the second quarter. So you'll benefit from those initiatives kind of fully in motion, coupled with the fact that you're kind of fully wrapped now on the churn that happened last year. As it relates to the fiber piece of it or excuse me. I'll go to the pricing piece first. So pricing overall, as you know, holistically, from a resin perspective, you're seeing resins slightly inflate right now. Competition in protective, particularly in our fulfillment areas where competition is still, you know, think about the pressure you have on polyvoid fill. You're seeing more pressure there from competition, but everywhere else, you know, if you…

Operator

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Edlain Rodriguez of Mizuho. Your line is now open.

Edlain Rodriguez

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. And again, congrats Dustin. I think in the prepared remarks, you've talked about enhancing the profitability of each business. In your view, like, what is the earnings power of each business in terms of volume and margin as we look into 2026 and beyond?

Dustin Semach

Management

Hey there. Again, appreciate the congratulations and I'll start here. So there's a couple of comments I would make. One is we have not issued a longer-term, you know, guidance for both individual segments. Right? And that's something that as a leadership team, we're working through in terms of how we see the business shaping up over the next two to three years. But what I will tell you and what we put in the script is around the fact that in both businesses, the end markets that we currently serve are in the low single-digit range. That is, you know, from a volume perspective. And if you think about pricing over time being somewhat linear, and what you would expect on that is the ability to drive low single-digit and mid-single-digit kind of earnings power both based on where the rat stays and the markets they serve, the portfolios we have, as well as the footprint we have right now and the capacity within that footprint. Longer term, so if you think about the first phase and I think what we talked about in 2025 is really we need to fully realize that. We recognize if you look at our food business, it's very positive the performance we had in '24. Expecting another strong year in that similar vein in '25. Our protected business, we're still obviously working through the turnaround trying to stabilize it. And get it back to a place where it's really achieving its underlying potential. Before we enhance it further with further capital deployment as well as innovation. And there'll be more to come on these topics as we progress throughout the year.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Josh Spector of UBS. Your line is now open.

Josh Spector

Analyst

Yeah. Hi. Good morning. I wanted to ask on the price within food. I think in your comments earlier, you said 2% growth and most of that price. I'm just curious about the visibility of that either through contracts or pass-throughs or if there's anything unique that's happening to drive pricing up. I mean, I know resins are up a little, but not a ton. And that seems, you know, about a point better than what I typically assume for that segment. So if you could unpack that a bit, that'd be helpful. Thank you.

Dustin Semach

Management

Hey, Josh. This is Dustin speaking. So a couple of comments I would make on that. We are already benefiting from formula pricing heading into the year. So just keep in mind, we talked about this in the past, but a big portion of this is in our North American business. Where you have the pass-throughs. And really based on how resins and the synergies have moved in the back half of '24, you'll see that benefit now heading into '25. Right? And if you expect revenue to continue, it's like there's a lag, but that lag will continue to drive. Beyond that, we have been able to take, you know, price in that business. Again, it's very modest, but, you know, reflecting some of the underlying inputs we have. It really speaks to the value proposition of the portfolios. But it's really a mix, a mix of those two dynamics sitting within that business today. That's driving that outcome. And I think that, also, the point I would leave you with is that for the first time heading into 2025, we're operating in a more stable environment where you kind of while you have some inflation of resins, it's more fully wrapped than you experienced all the volatility from, you know, kind of think of it as, you know, pre-COVID all the way to 2024.

Operator

Operator

One moment for our next question. Stefan Diaz of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Stefan Diaz

Analyst

Hi, Justin, Ronnie, and Mark. Thanks for taking my question, and congrats on the new roles. Maybe, Dustin, can you let us know how much automation revenue you had in 2024? And then maybe what your expectations are for this part of the business in 2025, like, for example, are you seeing any green shoots or any conversation changes with customers? Given the increased focus on nearshoring. And then maybe longer term, are you still thinking about this part of the business as a material growth vector for Sealed Air going forward? Thanks.

Dustin Semach

Management

Hey there. I appreciate the comments and the questions. So I'm gonna start with kind of your second question first just to frame it up. Look, automation continues has been historically and continues to be an incredibly important part of the business. But it's a when again, I go back to it. One of the three legs of that total stool between, you know, material science service as well as the equipment offering and the automation itself. So really that combination that creates the strength of the value proposition to our customers for our packaging solutions. So it's continued to be that way. And I know in the past, there's been maybe a focus on potentially on that particular piece, but the way we see it is really, it's an enabler of, again, pulling through material sets. We've talked about over the past couple of years where the parts and service of the business continue to perform really well, but the actual equipment sales have declined. Historically, that's been driven by some of the capital constraints of our customers in terms of where we're at in terms of the investment cycle. And what I would tell you is going forward, we're actually optimistic. You know, breaking down is really talking about it together, it really is more meaningful as you think about it between food and protective. You think about protective overall holistically, you know, you're looking at a business that is we're really expecting to drive it with growth going into '25, and that's really coming off the back of our renewed focus on our auto bagging equipment. Talked about in the script a little bit about the new hybrid auto baggers, which are really substrate agnostic. Allowing you to run poly as well as fiber, you know, and with really limited changeovers. Same thing on the food side where I would say we still see some pressure in that business. But, again, it's more reflective of the dynamics of the industry than less about the strength of their portfolio. And in both of them, we're really focused on net new placements. So, right, as you think about each, it's more around, you know, new customers, new placements, that drive new material sales. Than think of it as replacing older equipment. So that's kind of our focus right now. But in again, all in the spirit of driving more material longer term.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Roxland of Truist Securities. Your line is now open.

Michael Roxland

Analyst

Yeah. Thank you, Dustin, Ronnie, and Mark for taking my questions, and congrats on your new role. In terms of, you know, Dustin, you mentioned shifting the culture to become high-performing and engaged and accountable and you want to push decision-making down into the organization. The comment you that you ended it with is that you made progress last year especially in food. So it sounds like progress in protective was more mute. So just wondering, did anything occur that hindered more noble progress in protective that you're trying to address currently?

Dustin Semach

Management

Great question, Michael. And it's got a couple of comments I would make as part of this. One is this is really important. And I want to leave you with that over the past few years, we've been on a journey in this area. And every step that we've taken relative to leadership, structure, strategy, you know, at the center of that is really making sure that we're enabling the culture. Because longer term, we really need all sixteen thousand plus of us to really be rolling in the right direction. And the comment I made specifically in food is, you know, it was not intentional in the sense of the way it kind of came to be. But we really got to the structure in food much more quickly than we have yet in protective. And it's really also a statement about the complexity of protective as a business. We've talked about in the past. Yeah. Albeit it's a thirty, forty percent of the overall business. It is a very complex business with multiple portfolios that are operating across many geographies. So it's more of a statement about the complexity of the business and how you navigate that. And as we think about the structure of the company at the very top, there's a lot more work as you kind of work it down all the way down to the field. And, again, really positive stuff. I would say the North American go-to-market transformation that was put into place at the beginning of the year, it's material. We've gotten really positive feedback from our end customers about our distribution partners. It's moving in the right direction. There's just more work ahead of us to tackle not just to make sure that that piece of it's actually working and you're seeing in the results, but the rest of it is actually in a similar place.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeffrey Zekauskas of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Analyst

Thanks very much. Can you talk about the protective segment in 2024? That is what the growth rate was on the industrial side and what the growth rate was on the e-commerce side and maybe what the split is now between those two businesses. Then for Ronnie, cost of goods sold was down about $80 million year over year. Can you talk about what was behind that? Was that raw materials or cost reduction or how do you analyze that?

Dustin Semach

Management

Okay. So, Jeff, great question. Thank you for that. If I go back to some of the earlier questions around this particular piece of it, if you looked at the split between the two is roughly 60% industrial, 40% fulfillment. That's within the protective segment right now relative to 2024. And as I mentioned earlier, you know, our industrial portfolio was down from a volume perspective in kind of that low single digit, you know, kind of mid-single-digit range. And then on the fulfillment side, it was a step higher on the other side of it, which was it was down in the, you know, mid-single-digit, high-single-digit terrain depending on the portfolio. Now in both areas, there were bright spots. And they could give you an idea. In a couple of areas, you had shrink film as an example. We called out. We've talked about our inflatables. And we've also talked about our auto bagging equipment. And material sales, which were all very positive.

Ronnie Johnson

Management

Yeah. From a cost of goods sold per se, as a percentage of sales, we do see correlation in the reduction of cost. The sales aligning with the overall sales reduction. However, that is combined with a little bit of favorability on the raw material pricing side.

Dustin Semach

Management

Yeah. And then, Jeff, just to complement, keep in mind too that we talked about the cost takeout actions that we took last year. We started out the year talking about roughly $90 million. We ended the year at $89 million. A significant portion of the cost takeout as well as other productivity is also hitting the cost of goods sold plan.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan

Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the new role as well. Dustin and Ronnie and Mark. I guess just wanted to understand the guidance ranges a little bit more. So it looks like you're up about 3.5% for EBITDA at the midpoint, 2.5% EPS. And what would really drive you to the upper end of your range? Is that kind of very macro dependent? Is it maybe, you know, continued performance in food and maybe the stoppage of underperformance in protective or how should we think about attaining that range or is the midpoint really more what you have line of sight towards? Thanks.

Dustin Semach

Management

Arun. This is Dustin speaking. I will tell you, I'll break it down into three individual components. So the first in our food business as we kind of alluded to, to go back to last year, we entered the year thinking that the North American beef stock will be a headwind to the business. And, you know, we're down probably in the 4% range at least at the beginning of the year. We ended up being flat even benefit at the fourth quarter. We think about next year, we're in a similar position, right, where the herd hasn't been rebuilt. And so what you're hearing, at least initial thinking is that you're down 3 to 4% again going into the full year. Once your point about macro dependent, I think one of the areas that gets you to higher in the range is if the food business. If you see that actually become much better, you know, for the full year, you know, which is always a possibility. Again, well, I'll just caveat it being that we're in a dynamic environment. Second piece on protective is, to your point, is the acceleration of, you know, independent on when can we inflect volumes. As I mentioned in the script, you know, the timing is difficult to predict. And far as the reason you're calling a second-half inflection point, but we do believe that we're taking the right actions in the business to make that happen is just at what rate and pace of speed do you actually see that improvement? Right. And then the third piece is, you know, as we alluded to in the script, we're still thinking through while we're already committing to roughly $90 million of cost savings in 2025, we're really now taking a look at both businesses and making sure that their cost structure is fit for purpose. Which could also yield going back to the EBITDA line, not necessarily on the sales side, that gives you, you know, that gives you potential further lift. As we think about the back half of 2025.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Roberts of Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Matt Roberts

Analyst

Hey, Dustin, Ronnie, Mark. Good morning. I'll echo everyone else's sentiments. Dustin, on the, you know, that there are two plants closing, I believe, by year-end. Are there specific product lines that you're reducing the contribution mix from in those closures? And maybe when you think about that portfolio rebalance or the complexity in the protected segment that you discussed. When you look at the facility footprint, is there major overlap in terms of assets or sales functions or even resins from underperforming lines versus areas that are not structurally challenged? You know, basically, when you think of facilities in relation to the total portfolio, how do you weigh trade-offs in either maintaining the underperforming assets versus investing in areas of innovation that you discussed. Just wondering if there are potentially more closures coming with cost takeout or how you weigh the trade-off there. Thank you for taking the question.

Dustin Semach

Management

Matt, great question. And that was a very complex one. So the and I appreciate you asking because it's very thoughtful. And what I would tell you is that as it relates to the two specific ones, this is around specifically network optimization. We put it in reference largely to protective and it's largely consolidation. It's not reducing contribution from an individual product line. It's all about improving your cost position relative to those particular products. Which is what largely most of our network optimization has been done. As it relates to the thus far, we're down about, I want to say, five kind of missing little digits in terms of facilities over the past few years. And so as it relates to your question around as you'd say about kind of going forward and how you weigh these options, largely, and this specific guy as it relates to protective, we feel good about the I go back to that domestic production for domestic consumption. If you really take protected, for the metropolitan market. And so what's important as we evaluate those things is largely which geographic market you want to go into and then which metropolitan markets you want to serve within the countries that we operate in today, which is obviously sprawling and broadly international. And so, you know, we feel good about the flow from we have. And in terms of where we're at today, there's always potential for more network optimization, and we're very thoughtful about how we evaluate that. Are very big decisions that we spend a lot of time really thinking through. And as part of the reason today, we're not announcing that. And, again, I go back to it. It's not just from a lens of cost takeout for cost takeout sake. It's got to create longer-term value. So you know, again, when you think about a protected market, the last thing you want to do is exclude yourself from a metropolitan market that you think may have longer-term growth. Because you have short-term challenges. And so as I've mentioned beforehand, we feel really good about the portfolio we have in protective, and it's largely right now focusing on commercial execution as we move forward. So and making sure that we obviously put volume back into our plants. So we can just benefit from the other side of this and the incremental is going on the way up versus the deleveraging. Have experienced. And so that's where our heads at today.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Parkinson of Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Chris Parkinson

Analyst

Great. Thank you so much. Can you just talk a little bit more about global protein markets and kind of what you expect in 2025? What's embedded in your guidance? Just given some of the noise on the Red Meat side as well as potential headwinds to poultry, just any dynamics that you think are worth noting would be very helpful. Thank you.

Dustin Semach

Management

Sure, Chris. So great question. And again, kind of piggyback off the comments that I made earlier. If you think about, particularly, you know, let's say, you know, our Latin American, Australian cycles are kind of they're, you know, around the peaks. And then if you think about our North American cycle, that's the area that last year we thought was gonna be three to four down and then now it ended up being flat. And now we're kind of looking at them this year. Three to four down kind of was baked into our current outlook. The flip side is that when you go back to last year, if you look at most of the markets, whether it was dairy, smoked and processed food service, even poultry, they were slightly down for us globally. Now keep in mind, I'm beyond North America now. As we go into next year, those areas have slight upsides. Which is really playing in well to the strategy. Go back to we had very strong gains in our portfolios outside of shrink bags. But going into next year, those markets, which in many cases actually lend themselves more to retail in markets versus industrial food processing, you know, kind of end markets, there it presents more opportunity. We see those being positive even poultry because largely what most people are referring to in poultry, there's concerns around largely turkey. Where we had less exposure, and that's really tied to the ovarian fluids. So I think that for us, we still see poultry. Poultry consumption moving up. It plays well into our strategies around case ready and we see that as, you know, a long-term source of growth, not just in the short term in '25, but in system beyond.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our final question comes from Gabe Hajde of Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Gabe Hajde

Analyst

Good morning. I will echo the congratulations from everyone. Two, hopefully, quick ones, Dustin. First, the large player in e-com made an investment in one of your pure play kind of fiber-based competitors. I think this move is pretty unique at least relative to what we've observed historically. So two questions. Does this change your view at all on how to maximize value out of maybe the protective segment? And are you seeing increased activity in the M&A world in either the sweet or protective segments? And second, you called out $89 million, I think, of cost out in 2024. I think Ronnie mentioned $90 million was embedded in the outlook. I don't know if you're specifically describing all call it $180? The cost out to grow, but I think you're initially targeting $150. Where is the upside coming from? And then maybe if you're willing to quantify what that runway looks like. Thank you.

Dustin Semach

Management

Thank you, Gabe. It's a great question. So I'm gonna start with talking about and specifically Rampak, which I believe is what you're referring to, and then I'll turn it to Ronnie to not only walk you through the cost out to give you clarity there, but walk you through kind of the EBITDA bridge for the year. And then talk you through a little bit about net price realization that plays into that EBITDA bridge as well. So when you think about, yeah. I go back to the comment around Rampak. While it's unusual for Amazon to operate this way, I would say, with their industrial partners on the retail side, it's actually quite common on how they operate this way. On their AWS, their cloud services, or cloud infrastructure business and with their services partners. So it's very similar. And if you could go back to it, really, what we see from this is that it's a is one is continuity of supply, but also the, you know, from Rampak specifically, and this goes back to the business they won last year on the paper side, which is paper void filled, but a much more simplified version of that in terms of how they're offering it to Amazon. As you tell me, our natural reaction to a keep in mind that paper void fill today is a relatively small part of our overall portfolio. Where we see growth from a fiber perspective and particularly in fulfillment. Is less around the box and what's in the and how you solve for void fill in the box. It's more around the actual packaging formats, particularly on the mailers. Which is the reason why we talked about doubling down the fiber discrete mailer itself as well as our auto bagging equipment, which is in itself a form of a mailer. Right? Which is we've already had a lot of success with. And so we see it we don't see it as unusual what they're doing. Now what it does do for us is potentially create an opportunity relative because, you know, just kind of publicly doubling down and strengthening their relationship which gives us an opportunity for others that may not, you know, that may not respond well to it. But it doesn't change our strategy. Doesn't change our thinking about how the opportunity we see in that business. We believe in what we're doing. We believe it will when you look results. And then going back to your question around the cost out, I think I'll clarify one point that $89 million versus the $90 million in 2024 was just talking about where we set out to begin the year where we landed. I'm gonna turn it over to Ronnie to talk about EBITDA bridge for the full year. Is this similar? I think that may create some of the confusion and then talk about net price utilization.

Ronnie Johnson

Management

Yeah. Thanks, Dustin. Thanks, Gabe, for the question. From an EBITDA bridge perspective, as you are aware, we are facing FX headwinds of roughly $25 million. And combined with that, we are seeing unfavorable net price realization of roughly $65 million. This is split or this is driven rather by an increase in cost of $105 million due to inflation offset by pricing increases of roughly $40 million. The combination of FX and net price realization are effectively offset by the $90 million of savings that we referenced in the script. The $90 million in savings can be split between $65 million of cost takeout actions and $25 million of productivity efficiencies. When we think about the CTO program, we set out to achieve the $140 to $160 million of savings. As you had mentioned, through 2024, we did realize $100 million of CTO savings. Incremental? $65 million will bring us to the high end of that range. When it comes to the productivity savings, Dustin talked a little bit about plant optimization, etcetera. The $25 million is largely driven by VAST. From a comparative perspective, it's generally difficult to guide on. Because it's heavily contingent on what we do within the plant.

Dustin Semach

Management

So, Gabe, just to follow on to that point. So if you think about holistically, what she's referring to is really the productivity that we're driving within our plants, on that particular piece of it, but, broadly speaking, it's the same categories we've been going after the past two years. It's just now with the new structure in place, we have a lot more visibility. And it's given us more tailored opportunity to make adjustments. You go back historically, some of the comments we've talked about, which is whether it's their back-office optimization, which we continue to go after, and then also areas around, you know, further, you know, automation within most of our functions, and other G&A type of productivity enhancements. And so what I'll leave you with on this particular piece, is that we're staying flexible as we go throughout the year to make sure that we're proactive. So while this is a starting point or outlook for the taking another hard look at the protective cost structure, particularly as we progress throughout the year if we're not seeing our initiatives take hold as quickly as we would have planned. And so I would say on this particular topic, stay tuned.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Dustin for closing remarks.

Dustin Semach

Management

I'd like to thank everyone for their time today. I'm incredibly excited about our future. And I look forward to updating you throughout 2025 as we execute on our strategy to return Sealed Air to growth. Lastly, I'd like to close by reiterating my appreciation for all the Sealed Air team members for their tireless efforts in solving our customers' most critical challenges and their continued commitment to our transformation. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.