Dustin Semach
Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.
Yes. So I really appreciate the question as it relates to kind of price/cost dynamics for each individual business. And you're correct. And what you said, obviously, if you look at Q4, what's implied in our guide beyond the overall kind of low single-digit growth that we have for volumes, which is kind of commensurate with the prior three quarters, you're also seeing price, the spread come down almost in was flattish, right, which is obviously a very positive indication in terms of going into next year. There are still some pressures within the Food business related to some of the largest industrial processors, particularly in their businesses going into next year. But we still -- we see pricing dynamics more favorable going into next year than where we sit today. Now I'll caveat that and say that, obviously, input costs, resin costs are obviously a big factor into that. They've been very stable this year, and we talked about the positivity around reducing a lot of volatility. And so we do think the wraparound effect going next year is going to be a better pricing cost dynamic than we had in 2024. To what extent for Food, we're still working through. And that will be kind of thought through kind of over the next three to four months. On Protective, there are still pricing price, right? It's definitely narrowed because a lot of that comes down in terms of the price reductions due to a number of things kind of working through the supply chain, but really the bring down on resin happened across 2023 into 2024. So that wraparound effect. You still feel it to some degree, but it's narrowed again similar to Food, but not quite to the same degree. So you'll see about a 1% reduction in price in Q4, which will obviously have a tail going into next year. A lot of that is coming from competitive dynamics, particularly in the areas that we talked about where you have deterioration in volumes. Like poly, void fill. So it's not just that there's a volume loss there, but because there's less volume to grab right now, you're seeing a lot more pricing pressures across the competitive landscape in that particular area. But again, in a similar vein, we seem to be more positive going into next year than we experienced in 2024. To what extent, and does that mean, it will be positive overall, from an NPR relative to the -- if you -- just as a reminder, we're down -- it's improved throughout the year, but we're down about negative $60 million this year. So TBD, but we do expect it to be better. It's a great question.