Matthew Grubb
Analyst · Neal Dingmann
Okay. Yes, we can do that. Our guidance for gas is basically 78 Bcf of gas production for '10. I'll give you a breakdown, and I'll tell you where we may be conservative there. In Piñon, Q2 of '10 in Piñon was the first quarter in a while where we actually increased gas production. We drilled as high as 34, 35 rigs in Piñon a couple of years ago, and production really ramped up quickly. And as Tom mentioned last September, we went down to about four rigs. So we had a rapid decline, and we had quarterly decline. But from Q1 to Q2, we had a slight increase of 115 million a day to about 118 million a day. And with the ramp-down in rig in the Piñon Field, we're projecting about 122 million a day in Q3 and Q4. The difference, there, in a year, when we're envisioning running 10 rigs flat in Piñon, we were envisioning going from 115 million a day to about 135 million, 136 million a day in Q4. So with the new guidance there and with the new program, we're looking at about 43 1/2 Bcf of gas produced from Piñon. East Texas, this is where I believe we are conservative. We ran a couple of rigs in East Texas in Q1. Because of the low gas prices, we’ve dropped off those two rigs. We produced about 34 million a day in Q1 and 34 million a day again in Q2. However, we're projecting East Texas wells will go on a pretty steep hyperbolic. They’re Cotton Valley wells. We're projecting 26 million a day in Q3 and 24 million a day in Q4, which, I believe, are probably 3 million to 4 million, conservative, and that even today, right now, we’re producing still about 32 million a day, and we're halfway through Q3. So I think there's a chance for a bump in East Texas production. But the way we have it modeled right now, we will produce about 10.8 Bcf of gas. Gulf Coast and Gulf of Mexico, those are areas that we are not active in. Unfortunately, out there, we had some well performance issues that were unforeseen. We had a big well in the Gulf Coast -- these are waterdrive reservoirs, so water started to come in, so we had to choke them back pretty severely to maintain production. That's one well in the Gulf Coast. And we had three wells in the Gulf of Mexico with the same type of event, one that we operate on our East Brae 165 platform and the other two that Chevron operates, but we have high interest, 66% working interest. So the combined result of some well-performance issues there, we're below our forecast probably 5 million to 6 million a day in the Gulf Coast and Gulf of Mexico that was just unforeseen, and we didn't know the time of when that would happen. So in those two areas combined, we predict to produce about 6.5 Bcf of gas. Midcontinent, we predict to produce about the same, about 6.3 Bcf of gas. And then the Permian, about 8.5 Bcf of gas. That will be a steady increase of gas from Q1 through Q4 as a result of drilling, but we're projecting pretty moderate increases, 21 million a day in Q1 up to 25 million a day in Q4. And that excludes Arena. For the Arena gas, we're estimating about 5 million a day in Q3 and 7 million a day in Q4, for a total of 1.1 Bcf. And then all the other areas, non-ops, et cetera, about another 1.4 Bs. So that takes us to 78 Bs. Yes, so anyway, I think where we're conservative right now, we’re a little bit conservative in Piñon, I believe, in that we do have a compression project going on where we we’re going to draw the field pressure on our high CO2 gas down from 1,000 pounds to about 500 pounds. We haven't fully migrated all the wells over yet. We’re about halfway through that process, and we've seen a 5% to 10% increase so far. And then in East Texas, I believe, we're conservative there by 3 million to 4 million a day. So I think the 78 Bcf, it may be a little bit light on the gas side.