Neal Froneman
Management
Good afternoon and good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our H1 2023 Results Presentation. Just a few comments upfront. This has been another period of our results being impacted negatively by one-off events, some of them self-inflicted and some such as the extreme weather events in Australia, an Act of God or for those of you who believe in climate change also self-inflicted by humanity. The economy and hence the running of mining operations is in a particularly tough place globally at the moment. And there could well be a downturn as we see it for some time. Remember, we refer to these more as pandemics, and this is where our anti-fragility culture or differentiator stands us in good stead. As you will see from the title of the presentation, our antifragility differentiator is creating significant advantage to our peers, for reasons that I'm going to outline in the first section. Antifragility for those of you who are wondering, what it means, and I took this definition out of Wikipedia, is something that does not merely withstand a shock, but actually improves. Antifragility is beyond robustness and that is the culture we draft within our company. Please take note of our Safe Harbor statement. I'd like to now discuss the agenda. I will continue with the introduction and cover the changing environment, or what I'll call, the Antifragility section. The Chief Regional Officers will present the operating review for each region separately, Charl will continue with the financial review, and I'll complete the formal delivery with a brief conclusion. As you know, our company is all about the people. We've had some changes in the C-suite and some new executive management appointments, Dawie Mostert left us, Themba Nkosi has stepped in as the Chief Organizational Growth Officer, in other words, driving the strategic aspects of HR and we are looking to fill the sustainability position hopefully with a woman. Robert van Niekerk, in addition to his technical and innovation responsibilities, has taken responsibility for the Australian region. And then with the resignation of Wayne Robinson in the U.S., Kevin Robertson has been promoted to Executive Vice President for the U.S. PGM operations and Charles will cover that in more detail. And very pleased that we have deep bench strength that we can make these changes relatively quickly and really what you don't see is the structures and a number of really good people we've got in our organization below these levels. If we could go onto the next slide. This is our strategy. It's built on a strategic foundation. The essentials are our primary focus, 80% to 90% of our focus is on operating business. And then of course the differentiators and the area where I'm going to really focus today is highlighted in the red-green, and that's about building pandemic-resilient ecosystems. And we've shared the strategy with you before, so I'm not going to go into the details, but pandemics we define as -- certainly COVID-19 was a pandemic, that's a vanilla pandemic in the sense of that's a viral pandemic. The Ukrainian invasion, we've referred to as the pandemic, and I think the current global economic crisis is the next pandemic we're dealing with. And if you deal with pandemics and you prepare for them well ahead, you become antifragile, which is really the theme we want to talk about today. But of course, this is our results, and let me just move on to the salient features. And very pleasing, significant operational recovery at our gold business contributed to H1 earnings cushioning the impact of softer PGM process, and you are now starting to see in practical terms the countercyclical characteristics of gold having been confirmed and something we've alluded to previously, and this is enhancing our portfolio. The South African PGM operations, another consistent and really solid performance, load curtailment and the strategy around that, Richard will cover that, very well-managed, industry-leading cost control with a 9% increase. I want to say only a 9% increase, a lot lower than our peers. And you will see it from some of the graphs I'm going to show you, we're really well positioned for the anticipated price weakness. In terms of the U.S. PGM operations, unfortunately, impacted by the shaft incident at Stillwater West mine, which you won't see the progress being made in our results. I do because I go to the site often. But we were proactive in repositioning this business in 2022 already for this changing environment and creating sustainable value. Ongoing skill shortages are still impacting productivity, and I'm going to show you again a practical map of the number of jobs and the number of positions available across states. In terms of the European region we started out at lithium refinery, I'm going to talk more about that, received the permit for the concentrate on the second mine. Our rights issue, the equity component of funding the project capital is now concluded. Our partners, the Finnish Mining Group has increased their stake to 20% contributing to that number. And the balance of that funding will come from debt. So effectively, it is now fully funded. We continue to have challenges at Sandouville, they are being addressed, Mika will talk more about that. Our feasibility studies on PGM autocat recycling in Europe, battery recycling and conversion of that plant to Nickel sulfate plant will be completed in the second half of this year. In terms of our financial position, strong balance sheet, our net debt is only ZAR262 million, which translate to 0.01 net debt to adjusted EBITDA. We did declare an interim dividend. We are very mindful that the dividend yield is low. You have my commitment to review this at year end. Depending on market conditions, we will look to again reestablish a leading dividend yield from our dividend policy, but that's final dividend decision at year-end. All right, Embedding ESG, this is not just green washing. Our tailing storage facilities conformed with the GISTM audits. We have advanced our renewable energy program with a commitment to 89 megawatts of the Castle Wind Farm, first step in our carbon neutrality journey. And then very pleasingly, when we start looking at our safety strategy and how it is improving our performance relative to our global peers, I'm going to cover that in fact in the very next slide. So all-in-all, a reasonable H1 impact, as I said, right at the beginning by one-off events. So let's have a quick look at safety. As you can see, this is the ICMM peer group. The 2021 peer ranking is the top graph, and you could see we were not in a good place. In 2022, you can see how we have, despite our deep level high-risk mines, we've moved into a much better position on this ranking. Certainly being in the midst of Barrick and Newcrest and better than the ones on the left is very pleasing considering all the hard work and our relative risk exposure that has been so well managed. This is a very pleasing outcome. So I want to talk about this antifragility and the current and changing environment that we are finding ourselves in. So let's have a look at, let's call it, the global context and the grey elephants. We believe this is a compelling framework to understand the external context, a great elephant has been presented to you before, a grey elephant is a highly probable, high impact, yet often ignored trends that are shaping the 2020s. You can see those are pandemics aging workforces angry planet, inequality, big squeezes, angry people, multipolarity and intelligent advances. On the next slide, you will see a few that I just want to highlight that there's been clarity and that these are real issues, I think on climate change. Climate records are being broken literally every day, every week. And if anyone ever doubted global warming, I think you really need to look at some of these trends. Global carbon emissions being covered by active carbon pricing initiatives are increasing exponentially. And of course, this is the fundamental driver of the metals business that we are busy building. So it gained confirmation that we are in the right place unfortunately due to climate change. In terms of big squeezes, again, becoming very apparent increasing scarcity of raw materials is putting a huge premium on these materials. I'm going to show you our entry points and what the pricing looks like today. But more importantly, the stewardship related to the responsibility of producing these metals is increasing on miners and being involved in recycling and recovery of these metals from waste is becoming a global imperative, and again, I want to say we've been early adopters of that. In terms of angry people, well, we've just experienced a very disruptive period in France with strikes and riots that impacted on Sandouville was not the only issue and Mika will cover that in more detail. We fully are aware and sensitive to the social tensions in South Africa, but well positioned to manage that, and I will share a bit more on the South African landscape in the next few slides. In terms of multipolarity, very interesting, we are very pleased with having established ourselves in North American and European ecosystems. We are starting to see the geostrategic importance of Africa with its mineral wealth, intensifying again early adopters of being in the right places at the right time. Just on the South African political landscape, it's evolving rapidly. I want to say, first of all, all credit to the Center for Risk Analysis, and I would urge you to -- if you're not familiar with this scenario planning in terms of the changing South Africa, I'd urge you to make contact with John Andrus (ph), the CEO. Of course, this is not predicting an outcome. It's actually understanding the possible outcomes that are in front of us with a 2024 election looming next year. The buffalo is the ANC and you can see they were phases where the Buffalo was charging. We've moved from a developmental phase or first age to a second age being detrimental under the leadership of Zuma, and we're now in the third age, which is an emasculated stage, which is why I am, let's say, motivated as business that we can make a difference. And there are various outcomes, we can go back to a detrimental phase, we can stay in emasculated phase or we could move into a very constructive lean phase, you will see references to our hyenas, you will see references to wild dogs, and clearly it's about being prepared for these changes that are coming. Thanks. If we can go to the next slide, which really just encapsulates what I said about in an emasculated phase, business does have the ability to influence outcomes and should be influencing outcomes. And what you see here, and I'm not going to go through the detail or the structures that have been put in place together with government to address energy transport, crime and corruption, and these structures emulate what was put in place for the vaccine challenges around COVID-19, and as you know, we had a very successful outcome in business and government working together to deliver vaccines to the nation. This is in the national interest, and I do believe all these workstreams are making and are going to make a very significant difference which makes me a lot more positive about South Africa and our future. As I said, I would just include a slide showing the skill shortage and the challenges in the U.S., you can see all the shaded states have more jobs than people, for instance, in Montana. They are 46 people available for 100 jobs, and that's our challenge in our U.S. PGM segment. It is changing, we've got some smart initiatives in place. But if you want to summarize, there are currently 9.8 million open jobs in the U.S. and only 5.9 million unemployed workers. I really wish South Africa was in this situation, but it's got its own challenges, but I think this represents -- it's not a unique Sibanye-Stillwater issue in Montana, it's its national U.S. challenge. It's only Washington, California and New York that has sufficient people to full openings. So what I want to do is just work through each one of these in terms of the operating context that we find ourselves in high mining inflation, the potential for impairments across the industry, and of course, restructuring. We are preparing for a prolonged and possible PGM down cycle, loadshedding and curtailment is affecting South Africa, being very well managed by my team. I will cover that -- the global call for lower carbon footprint and better TSF management, we've delivered on that. The critical metals or the green rush with regional incentives driving multipolarity, and then of course, this becomes an opportunity for those companies that are well positioned to drive value accretive and well-structured M&A, and I'm going to refer to some of the M&A we've done and being early adopters and having an antifragility culture has put us in a really good space. Thank you. Let's just move on to the first one. So high mining inflation and potential impairments, what have we done about it? Well, we have timelessly restructured and closed end of life shaft at Kroondal, Rustenburg and Marikana in 2016 and 2019 and then some of you would remember we closed Beatrix 4 shaft in 2022. That is just the nature of owning mature assets and being proactive in terms of avoiding cross subsidization. We've executed integration across our new acquisitions, realized synergies and we've moved our assets down the cost curve. I'm going to show you that as well. We've proactively repositioned our U.S. PGM operations in 2022, you would remember in anticipation of PGM price weakness, so in addition to some technical challenges that we had. So let's just look at some of those things. There's the cost curve, you can see where most of these assets were sitting on the right. Four of them are really in a good place, there are some areas at Marikana that need attention, I'll show you that. And then, of course, Stillwater was impacted in this period by the shaft incident, and of course, that is not a true reflection of its potential and I would hope in the next year to 18 months, you will see it in a very different place on this cost curve. So let's look at the next slide in terms of -- this is a South African PGM business, and you can see there's a very small part of it that needs, let's say, to be optimized for sustainability. We are busy with those processes, Richard will talk a lot more about some of the long-term life of mine planning we've done and I think you will find it particularly pleasing, but we are proactively looking at these things and have been prior to spot prices moving down to the sort of levels. On the next slide, you will see the same approach for our gold business. The market generalizes about our gold business being high cost and profitable. But you can see there's a very large portion of it that sits below the spot price line, clearly, those areas that are sitting above are being addressed and we are considering a number of scenarios, and we will look to provide more guidance in the next few weeks. But again, just because of a higher gold price environments will not sitting on our hands. So preparing for a possible downside fall, what have we done? Well, you've just heard me talking about optimizing operations for profitability. We've had a disciplined transparent capital allocation framework, which we've stuck to for a good number of years now. We have financial flexibility, a strong balance sheet, we have restructured our debt recently low coupon bonds and the dollar RCF was increased to $1 billion in April 2023. And both our rand and dollar RCFs are undrawn. Our multi commodity portfolio diversifies our risk exposure as well. So let's look at a couple of slides setting that out. There is our net cash or net debt to adjusted EBITDA. You can see we've been in a net cash position for some time but we're still in a very strong balance sheet position without net debt, just at 0.01, net debt to adjusted EBITDA. Next slide please. In terms of our capital profile, even with Keliber, Rhyolite Ridge is not in this graph, but with Keliber. As I mentioned right at the beginning, the equity portion of the funding has been raised and the balance will be in debt, and that's very manageable. I just want to point out if you think you're going to add a capital hemp on for Rhyolite Ridge, I want to point out that the purchase price is meant to cover the capital, of course, we don't know exactly what the capital cost is going to be, but feasibility study is being completed. But certainly the acquisition price is designed to cover the capital, so please keep that in mind when you model our company. Next slide please. I'm not going to go into the details on the left but sufficed to say PGM basket prices whether you look at the main 4E or 2E. In 4E, they're down 41% to date, in 2E, which is our North American basket price, it's down 27% year-to-date. That is very, very significant reductions in our revenue line. Next slide please. Obviously, the demand side needs to be well understood. Again, the bullets on the left hand side underpin what we see is effectively a balanced market now in 2023. So we don't see a lot of demand drivers despite light vehicle production having increased or forecast to increase from 80.6 million units to just under 84 million units. So nevertheless, we have taken a prudent view and relief at best the market will be in balance. So let's move onto loadshedding and curtailment affecting South Africa. Our South African operations, as I said, were well managed. There were no stockpiles that or major buildups in infantry at the end of the period. We now have a renewable projects plan of over 600 million, sorry, 600 megawatts with the first 89 megawatts wind farm project having now reach to a financial close. Very pleasingly, our first concrete step in investing in assets to ameliorate load curtailment, and of course address our carbon footprint. Next slide, please. So this is just a picture of the earthworks taking place for the new Castle wind energy project, which achieved financial close in May 2023, and of course there's more to come. Thank you. Next slide, please. In terms of a global call for low carbon footprints and better TSF management, well, of course, our PGMs and battery metals contribute to a greener future. So that's fundamental, and is the foundation of our business. We are on track to meet our carbon neutral target by 2042 and we had a very successful outcome, as I've mentioned, to the global tailing standard with all very high and extreme consequences TSFs in our South African and U.S. regions conforming to the standard, so very pleasing. This is a slide you should be familiar with. It shows our planned decarbonization pathway aiming to achieving carbon neutrality by 2040. What is new on this slide, however, is that we've increased our renewable energy plan to over 600 megawatts of solar and wind projects. And you can see it set out on the right hand side of the slide. Again, I'm not going to go through it in detail, but this is a slide you're familiar with and has really just been enhanced with additional commitments. All right, the critical metals or the green rush as we're calling it with regional incentives driving multipolarity or you could say multipolarity is driving regional incentives. Either way, we're well positioned, we acquired and consolidated our Keliber stake, well ahead of the lithium price surge. Lithium is going to be in short supply over an extended period, we absolutely convinced at that, in fact, there is not going to be enough lithium to meet the projected demand for battery electric vehicles. So, we're in a good space. We commenced the construction of the refinery in Finland. We also entered into a JV agreement for Rhyolite Ridge well ahead of the lithium price increases. The inflation Reduction Act, and again very pleased that we targeted the North American system -- ecosystem, I should say, is benefiting our U.S. PGM operations already. From the end of this year, we will be getting a credit of 10% of qualifying production cost and that's going to be in place for 10 years. We've taken the initial estimate in these financials, but I think we've been very prudent. And then of course, the IRA advantages for our Rhyolite Ridge, we've also seen through a $700 million conditional funding from the Department of Energy in the U.S. So let's just look at a couple of slides on this. There the two ecosystems North America and Europe. If you start on the right hand side of the slide, when we made our first entry into Keliber, the lithium price today, even after having come off a bit, is 447% higher than our initial entry. If you go to the left hand side of the page, and you look at the Rhyolite Ridge investment, you can see it's still 83% higher for lithium carbonate than when we made those entries. I'm very optimistic about the Rhyolite Ridge project as well, and I'll cover that in some detail. So the Keliber project is being built. James has indicated to me that that many analysts do not include the, let's call it, the value of Keliber, but they include the capital, that just doesn't make sense. Yes, it's a new project processing might be tricky but there's very little risk to this project. So I would ask that analysts to really start giving us credit for something that is already happening. In terms of the Rhyolite Ridge lithium project, myself and some of the technical team together with the U.S. team spent time on site. This project has advanced. The permitting risk has decreased significantly with the revision to the mine plant with the south basin and now not impinging at all on the battery. There's very significant upside potential as well, not only in the north basin, where we've agreed with IRA to continue with some exploration, which we will fund. In addition, in the south basin, there's additional potential which we hope to explore shortly. I think that's all on the base of, as I've said earlier, the commitment from the Department of Energy for a conditional loan of $700 million. So both lithium projects in a really good space. Of course, remember Rhyolite Ridge should be a low cost producer, even though the grade is low because of the boron credits. I just wanted to make a comment, we have been involved in a number of assessments in Africa, and it is very clear to us that Africa is emerging as a key player in the energy transition. And in fact, there's a bit of tug of war going on between the east and the west, and certainly I want to make it clear, we're a western facing company and we look forward to bringing some of these resources to account for the west, and this will be an interesting landscape that is going to evolve. So I wanted to conclude the section just talking about value accretive and well-structured M&A. Of course, I'm really proud about what we have achieved as a team in terms of our PGM acquisitions, and I will remind you of that again in the next few slides. And in fact, these acquisitions have petted for themselves multiple times over. And I think there are many, many examples for assets, they never pay for themselves, which is why some companies don't embark on M&A, I think it's a strong point of ours and of course we will continue to look for value accretive opportunities. Approaching value-driven growth with smart structures and innovative financing is something that I need to bring to your attention. We do not really like competitive processes because you end up being sucked into overpaying or you lose out because of your positioning around what is fair value. The shorter structures that have worked very well for us and while the shorter structures you will see us implementing and there is many good examples is where we invest in the asset rather than buying assets from shareholders. I've just spoken about Rhyolite Ridge, Keliber was the similar investment, predominantly investing in the prefea's and the feasibility studies, exploration and rather investing in the ground. There was some shareholder takeout, but investment in Africa, for instance, in Mopani are not going to be paying shareholders upfront as an example. Probably the best example of smart structures is Rustenburg Platinum, where there was an earning, both Anglo and ourselves that extremely well out of that structure. Those are the top structures we think of, and implement. Obviously, partnerships are important and that enables optimum value creation. So let's look at a couple of the underlying slides in this. You all know the sigmoid curves that have taken us to where we are. I want to point out and I really want you to focus on the red areas there. We initially leveraged our operating skills for commodity diversification, in other words, we did well in turning around the original gold field's assets that gave us the credibility to move into PGM's utilizing our core skills. Once we are done there, we can establish a bit of a base of PGM's, we were able to leverage those exact same operating skills in a new commodity to move into the U.S. and start our geographical diversification, and you can be critical of Stillwater, but it's paid for itself, and please remember that with probably still another 30 or 40 years of life. What we learnt in moving into the PGM's was doing things somewhat different to our peers in this industry. We realized there was a lot of benefit in terms of understanding the value chain and moving down further to the end user, and hence we leveraged our market and value chain knowledge tied to diversifying to green metals, tailings and expand recycling, and I'm going to come to that stewardship of those three elements now. But moving downstream is a very, very important part in terms of the business we are entering into. So, as I said, when you understand these big squeeze, when you understand the importance of decarbonizing the planet and the metals are critical constraint, the intention is not to abuse it, but to embrace resource stewardship, and it's not just through primary mining. In our view, you can't be in the sector if you only are conducting primary mining. So, as you know, over a period of time, we've built our secondary mining business that now has two rigs, DRDGOLD and New Century Resources, and of course we are in the recycling business in Montanna with Autocatalysts, one of the biggest recyclers in the U.S., but we are actively exploring opportunities for further recycling of precious metals and of course ultimately electric vehicle battery. So that's a very important concept and it does move us downstream in a responsible way. We are not going to build giga factories, we may invest in giga factories in a small way, but this does move us downstream. Next slide please. So, if you look at our timing in terms of our entry into the PGM business, it couldn't have been better and that's really the only point I'm going to make and when you couple that with our early entry into the lithium market, again I think you can see a track record of doing things at the right time. Next slide please. This is an interesting slide with two key messages, we fully understand our current multiple and what causes that. But you can see, when you look down the multiple column, you can see diversified companies do attract a bit of multiple because they are less risky, less exposure to market cyclicality. And then, of course, as you move downstream, you also see an increase in market multiples, so that boards well for us. The one aspect on this slide, in case you didn't think payback of all our (ph) assets was enough. If you compare our return on invested capital to some of our peers, you can see that in really good company, we have also provided a better return to our shareholders in terms of invested capital. So the strategy, the concept of moving slightly further downstream boards well for us, our returns to our shareholders through doing things at the right time in the commodity markets has provided very significant benefits, doesn't matter how you measure it. Next slide please. This is an interesting slide and the critical minerals that we are focused on are a very small part of the metals market. So if you interpret my comments as we are trying to emulate a Rio Tinto and Anglo America or a BHP, we are not. If you follow these bars, you can see iron ore or other metals translating to the orange spec bar with aluminum, manganese, copper of course is a significant block, but when you move into the little green block at the bottom, and I probably should highlight nickel at 2.8 million tonnes, if you move into technology and precious metals that's at little green block expanded into the bigger green block, you can see the type of metals that we are looking at, and if you expand the precious metals into golden PGMs, you can see it's a tiny portion. My point is that, this is a very small market, even including lithium in the bottom middle of the green block and copper which we see as a critical metal. We are still operating in a very small segment of the market, that's a niche part of the market and although we're going to be diversifying -- we're not trying to diversify unlike your traditional diversified mining company, so hopefully, that's also useful in understanding our strategy and where we're focused. Thank you. So at this stage, I'm going to hand over to the Chief Regional Officers to go through their regions in detail. And the first one up is Richard Stewart. Thank you, Richard.