Talya Nevo-Hacohen
Analyst · Scotiabank
Thank you, Mike. This morning, I'll provide you with third quarter operating results of our Managed portfolio. This is the second consecutive quarter where operating results have been materially affected by the global pandemic and the first where federal government funding to the CARES Act, that Mike just described, has provided assisted living operators some relief. I will also share some statistics for the month of October in order to provide additional visibility into operating trends as Senior Housing continues to find its way during these challenging times. As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, approximately 15% of Sabra's annualized cash net operating income was generated by our Managed Senior Housing portfolio. Approximately 51% of that relates to communities that are managed by Enlivant and 34% relates to our Holiday managed communities. The balance includes our Canadian portfolio and five assisted living and memory care communities in the United States. Senior Housing operators have now transitioned into a phase where operating during a pandemic is the new normal. They have operationalized protocols, focused on infection control and prevention, and created ways to relax restrictions which can be flexed as warranted by circumstances and location. At the same time, consumers have transitioned from pandemic fear to pandemic fatigue. The results have been that while our Senior Housing operators have data and evidence that living in our communities is safer than staying at home, prospective residents worry that they will never embrace their families again as they move in. To start, I will provide highlights of the operating results of our Managed portfolio on the same-store quarter-over-quarter basis to illustrate the trends in the industry. These results will exclude two recent acquisitions and one transitioned community in our wholly-owned portfolio, consistent with the presentation and our supplemental information package. Revenue increased 4.2% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of 2020 and included $4 million from the Provider Relief Fund Phase 2 general distribution that was made available to eligible assisted living facilities in the third quarter through the CARES Act. If we exclude this grant, then same-store revenue declined 1.5%. And if we look at revenue for those facilities that were eligible for the grant and exclude those funds, then same-store revenue declined 1.4% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Revenue per occupied room, REVPOR, excluding the non-stabilized asset and the CARES Act grant, rose 1.7%. While occupancy, also excluding non-stabilized assets, declined 270 basis points to 79.3% from 82% in the second quarter. Cash net operating income increased by 20.6% to $19.7 million from $16.3 million. Without the federal grant, cash net operating income would have declined by 4.1%. If we look at the cash net operating income for our eligible facilities and exclude those funds, then same-store cash net operating income without government funding would have declined 2.2% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Cash NOI margins increased to 26.8% from 23.1% in the preceding quarter. Again, excluding the government grant, cash NOI would have been 22.5%. While REVPOR has remained robust, occupancy has continued to decline during the third quarter. As the pandemic has continued to affect our hemisphere in varying degrees, we have seen changes in behavior of residents and their families. Pandemic fatigue to both residents and their families is contributing to higher discretionary move outs and deferral of move-ins. In contrast to that, rates continue to be strong in our portfolio, indicating that residents appreciate the value operators are delivering to them. Senior Housing is a high operating leverage business. Operators have scrutinized their cost structure, but there is a limit to expense cutting given the fixed costs inherent in the business model. For this reason, a decline in revenue attributable to lower occupancy or an increase in revenue from CARES Act funds, have a disproportionate impact on cash net operating income and cash NOI margin. The Enlivant joint venture portfolio, of which Sabra owns 49%, posted stronger third quarter results bolstered by the receipt of approximately $3 million in CARES Act funds. Average occupancy for the quarter was 75.8% reflecting a 3.1% decline on a same-store quarter-over-quarter basis and a 5.6% decline on a same-store year-over-year basis. REVPOR, excluding CARES Act funding was 4,411 compared with 4,302 or 2.5% higher on a same-store quarter-over-quarter basis, and 2.4% higher on a same-store year-over-year basis. Revenue was 7% higher on a same-store quarter-over-quarter basis and 3.6% higher on a same-store year-over-year basis, driven by the federal grant receipt. Excluding those funds, revenue decreased by 1.6% on a same-store quarter-over-quarter basis and 4.7% on a same-store year-over-year basis. Same-store cash net operating income was $9.1 million, a 37.3% increase on a sequential basis driven by CARES Act funds. Without those funds, same-store cash NOI would have declined 8.7%. Same-store cash NOI margin was 24% compared with 18.7% for the prior quarter or 5.3% higher on a same-store quarter-over-quarter basis. Again, excluding the federal grant, cash NOI margin would have been 17.4% and more in line with the prior quarter's results. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, October occupancy was 72.8%, 890 basis points lower than February occupancy before the impact of COVID-19. Rate increases occurred on October 1st for eligible residents. Rather than increase rates by 5%, as has been done in the past, Enlivant chose to increase rates by 4%. As a side note, Enlivant was not allowed to increase rates in the State of Washington because of the Governor's order. We have 12 Enlivant communities in Washington and the impact of this temporary rate fees on the portfolio is negligible. Since the pandemic began until start of this week, 98 of our Enlivant JV communities have had a resident or staff member test positive for COVID-19. As of the beginning of this week, 33 communities had a resident or staff member with a positive test. And of those, 20 are located in Texas, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin. To put these numbers into context, Enlivant just had approximately 2% of its residents test positive to COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. This compares to an industry average of between 5% and 7% in assisted living and memory care communities. The third quarter operating results for Sabra's wholly-owned portfolio of 11 communities had similar theme in its performance. Third quarter occupancy was 81.2%, a 2.1% decline compared to the prior quarter and a 7.6% decline on a year-over-year basis. REVPOR in the third quarter excluding CARES Act funding of $797,000 was 5,761, essentially flat from the prior quarter and 4.2% higher than the prior year. Revenue was 6% higher on a quarter-over-quarter basis and 3.9% higher on a year-over-year basis. Excluding the federal grant, revenue declined 2.7% on a quarter-over-quarter basis and 4.7% on a year-over-year basis. Cash net operating income was $2.8 million, a 42.4% increase on a sequential basis, driven by CARES Act funds. Without those funds, same-store cash NOI would have increased 2.1% for the same period. Cash net operating income margin was 29.2%, 7.5% higher on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Excluding the federal grant, cash NOI margin would have been 22.8%, 1.1% higher than the prior quarter. More recently, October occupancy was 78.9%, 710 basis points below February's pre-pandemic occupancy level. As in the joint venture rate, increases occurred on October 1st for eligible residents at 4%. 7 of our wholly-owned Enlivant communities have had a resident or staff member test positive for COVID-19. And as of earlier this week, only 2 communities had not yet recovered. Enlivant has made a strategic decision to maintain a 6 to 9 month inventory of personal protective equipment such as gowns, masks and gloves in order to avoid potential shortages in months ahead. This has given them some latitude and timing of purchases in order to achieve better pricing. Since occupancy is the key to improving financial results, Enlivant has been focused on lead generation and moving in new residents. Lead generation has rebounded since April and is in line with prior year leads. Move-in volume while recovering since April is about 74% of pre-pandemic results, driven by potential residents and families concern over possible restrictions on visitation, quarantine, et cetera. Regulations on indoor visitation vary by state and may be tied to county infection rates and local regulation. These limitations currently impacting half of the states in which Enlivant operates tend to dampen move-ins and accelerate move-outs. Enlivant has planned to mitigate these concerns including offering testing for new residents so that they can avoid 14-day isolation and incentivize move-in and testing employees to prevent the infection from entering the building to mitigate pandemic fatigue. Holiday Retirement operates 22 independent living communities for Sabra, one of which was transitioned to Holiday in the fourth quarter of 2019. Since healthcare services are not provided in these independent living communities, these properties were not eligible to receive CARES Act funds allocated to assisted living providers. All of the following operating results are presented on a same-store basis and exclude the transitioned property. Holiday portfolio occupancy was at 82.5% in the quarter, 2.5% lower on a sequential basis and 6.1% lower on a year-over-year basis. REVPOR was 2,519, slightly higher than both 2,499 on a sequential basis and 2,483 on a year-over-year basis. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the Holiday portfolio experienced a 2.2% decline in revenue and a 5.6% decline on a year-over-year basis. Cash net operating income was $5.9 million, a 7.4% decline on a sequential basis, and 18.6% decline on a year-over-year basis. Cash net operating income margin was 33.2% compared with 35.1% in the prior quarter and 38.5% in the third quarter of 2019. Nearly the entire difference in margin is a result of lost revenue due to occupancy decline, with the balance being increase in expenses associated with the pandemic. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, excluding the one transitioned community, October occupancy was 80.6% compared to 86.8% in February, a 620 basis point decline. Of the 22 properties of Holiday managers for Sabra, 18 have had a resident, staff, member or private home health aide test positive for COVID-19 and 12 communities have recovered. 16 properties are now in various states stages of lifting restrictions such as dining room use at reduced capacity, limited visitors and reopening of the beauty salon. Holiday has been focused on ensuring that its residents are kept safe, which has made easier because of the lower acuity in independent living and fewer staff. Testing and implementing safety protocols have been the cornerstone of these efforts. Holiday residents have had an infection rate of less than 1%, which is 64% below the infection rate among 75-plus year olds in the U.S., made all the more impressive because more than one-third of residents and staff COVID cases have been asymptomatic. After having fewer move-outs in the second quarter, Holiday saw an increase in voluntary move-outs starting in July. Move-outs are trending down since quarter end. The excess move-outs, those above normal levels, are a result of COVID related restrictions. At the same time, the number of move-ins per community rose to near pre-pandemic levels in July and August before turning down in September due to concerns over COVID-19 surge and resident concerns about restrictions after move-in. Holiday continues to be proactive in maintaining its reputation for safe communities. In anticipation of the regular flu season Holiday partnered with CVS Health to arrange for flu vaccine clinics on-site with more than 10,000 vaccinations delivered to residents and staff. Sienna Senior Living manages 8 retirement homes in Ontario and British Columbia for Sabra. In the third quarter of 2020, the 8 properties managed by Sienna achieved 79.5% occupancy, 3.2% lower on a sequential basis and 10.3% lower on a year-over-year basis. REVPOR was $2,495, flat to the prior quarter and 1.1% higher on a year-over-year basis. Third quarter revenue was $4.5 million, 4% lower than the prior quarter and 10.4% lower on a year-over-year basis driven by occupancy declines. In the third quarter, cash net operating income was just over $1 million, a 17% decline on a sequential basis and 46.7% decline on a year-over-year basis. As in Holiday’s case, nearly the entire difference in cash net operating income is a result of occupancy loss. Cash net operating income margin was 23.8%, lower than both 27.5% in the prior quarter and 39.9% in the third quarter of 2019. More recently, October occupancy was 80.2%, 400 basis points below February occupancy. There have been no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in our Sienna portfolio. The number of cases is very low in the interior of British Columbia where four of our retirement homes are located, with a total in the province of 777 cases and there are fewer than 80,000 cases in the entire province of Ontario. While the more populated provinces in Canada have managed to flatten the curve, a surge in COVID cases triggered by Canadian Thanksgiving is causing the government to tighten restrictions. Sienna has seen similar dynamics in move-ins and move-outs with Holiday and Enlivant. Seniors have been interested in moving in but fearing the imposition of restrictions or waiting on the sidelines to see what happens. In the second quarter, move-outs in Ontario had slowed down because there were no available long-term care beds, which are paid for by the provincial health system, by the way. Once beds became available, there was a touch up in move-outs from the Sienna portfolio which now seem to be reverting to normal levels. Between February and October of this year, our total Senior Housing Managed portfolio inclusive of non-stabilized assets lost 687 basis points in occupancy. That change in occupancy is the key variable driving the operating results of our Senior Housing Managed portfolio. Pandemic-related operating costs have become more routine, as operators have acquired PPE inventory, operationalized infection prevention protocols, and managed delivery of services to residents. Our operators in the reporting reduced agency use, key role pays decreased significantly since the summer and Enlivant has even seen an increase in employee retention over the last few months. These expenses are not driving the ongoing pressure on net operating income. It is the decline in revenue from the erosion in occupancy. In order to be a desirable alternative to home, senior housing has always needed to offer a multi-faceted value proposition to residents and their families. Senior housing has needed to provide a pleasing living arrangement, tasty food, engaging activity, social life and delivery of care. COVID-19 has added a significant new facet, infection protection. The challenge has been to do this without infringing on residents’ lives. Our Managed communities located mostly in secondary and tertiary markets, targeting a middle market price point were somewhat shielded from COVID-19 outbreaks during the early months of the pandemic. Now after seven months, COVID has spread across all markets, infecting people in nearly identical rates per capita from urban to rural markets and everything in between, the advantage of Sabra Senior Housing portfolio market location has now become a time advantage. The operators in our Managed portfolio had more time to prepare. They were able to be more tactical in their approach, and implement infection control, stockpile PPE and other inventory, develop testing protocols and address staffing concerns. This has allowed them to maintain low infection rates by limiting community spread from entering the building. Potential residents making a decision about whether to move into a senior housing community today are faced with a difficult choice. And that choice is increasingly being skewed by need rather than want. The pent-up demand that we talk about are those people still in the want category who will move into the need category. And that timeframe is measured in months, not years. Enlivant has already noted that they are seeing higher acuity residents moving in. Higher care may result in higher revenue, but it may also result in shortened average length of stay which will drive greater turnover in the near-term. Until an effective vaccine is available and administered to residents and staff, Senior Housing operators are walking the fine line of keeping residents safe, while keeping them engaged and fulfilled. That is why our operators are so intently focused on creating testing programs that are effective at stopping potentially infected individuals from entering the building, regardless of their symptoms or lack thereof. The better our operators can insulate residents from community spread, the freer our residents can be within the building. This gives our operators the opportunity to sway the people who want to move in that now is the time. In prior earnings calls, we've spoken about the importance of our Senior Housing operators in the healthcare continuum. We saw that recognized by the Federal Government in September. We also believe that the pandemic will be seen as a period where operators’ reputations will be garnished because they kept their residents and their staff safe, and did so with care. I will now turn the call over to Harold Andrews, Sabra's Chief Financial Officer.