Jeffrey A. Stoops
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. As you have heard, we did have a great quarter, exceeding the high end of our guidance across almost all key financial metrics. Once again, we led our industry in many important growth metrics. Our organic leasing activity has been particularly strong this year and the primary reason for our outperformance. We are experiencing strong demand across our entire portfolio, both domestic and international. We are seeing the benefits from that demand in both our leasing and services segments. We expect to benefit from these elevated levels of activity for the next several years as carriers build out their initial coverage footprints for 4G to be followed by capacity spending as consumer adoption increases. Commentary from our customers has been very clear that network speed and quality is now and will remain a primary focus. The path to better network speed and quality is more infrastructure. And we are seeing the results in our executed new leasing business and backlogs. We are seeing increasing amounts of cell splitting in the U.S. And our new tenant backlog is at an all-time high. Having said that, we have just experienced another wave of amendment applications, which has pushed our amendment backlog to a 2013 high. Internationally, we are seeing strong growth in new cell sites with a lot of basic 3G coverage builds still ongoing in our markets. We look forward to the buildout of 4G in many of our international markets in the future. As a result of anticipated continued strong demand from our U.S. and international customers, we're guiding to strong organic leasing growth again in 2014. In the third quarter, we had a very busy quarter with respect to new leasing business. And we signed up the highest number of new tenant leases in years. In addition to an increased of volume of new leases, our customers are requesting larger equipment loads, which have a favorable impact on rate. AT&T and Verizon continue to be very busy and represented well over 1/2 of our new business in the quarter. Both customers were active with new leases and amendments. We saw another material contribution from Sprint due to its Network Vision project. And T-Mobile remains active on its 4G upgrade. We have not yet seen any 2.5G business from Sprint, although we expect to see material activity in 2014. Our services segment produced another record level of activity for us in the third quarter, once again with the primary contributors being the Sprint Network Vision and T-Mobile 4G projects. We expect continued strong services segment contribution for the remainder of 2013 and through 2014, although we expect that our 2014 outlook reflects our work on the Sprint Network Vision project tapering off as the work we were contracted to perform nears completion. We expect Sprint to stay very busy with leasing activity. We continue to see strong activity in our international markets. Leasing activity is mostly new leases, but there is a growing amount of amendment activity. We had a busy quarter-end in Brazil. We closed on the acquisition of an independent tower company with a quality employee force and a sizable new build backlog. The transaction closed at the end of September. The integration is going well. And we now have about 30 experienced employees in Brazil ready to close and integrate our pending 2,113-tower Oi acquisition. We will continue to expand our Brazilian workforce as we grow, but with much of our back-office functions located in the U.S. We expect our Brazilian overhead to grow in the future at a fraction of the rate of growth we expect in Brazilian revenue. With our leverage currently below our target range of 7.0x to 7.5x net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA, and at the low end of the target range pro forma for the Oi transaction, we are seeking additional portfolio growth. We will look both domestically and internationally and believe that we will continue to find attractive opportunities that will meet our investment requirements. We are reaffirming our goal of 5% to 10% portfolio growth in 2014, while maintaining our target leverage levels. Our initial 2014 guidance reflects a lower percentage of portfolio growth, reflecting only those acquisitions we have under contract today. And if we are successful in consummating some additional acquisitions, I would expect our initial 2014 outlook to increase. Our access to capital and balance sheet are both in great shape. Our undrawn $770 million revolver and anticipated AFFO generation are more than sufficient to fund pending investment activity. If we pursue additional investments, as is our goal, those would likely be funded with additional debt financing, which is currently readily available to us at attractive rates. With respect to our expected obligations related to our 4% convertible notes due October 2014, our outlook contemplates a $1.4 billion debt refinancing to fully cash settle the convert obligations, and to call the remaining $244 million of our 8.25% senior notes. We anticipate seeking such refinancing in the secured and securitized markets and have assumed a 4% refinancing rate in our 2014 outlook. As our initial 2014 guidance indicates, we expect the current strength in our business to continue into 2014. A primary driver of the substantial growth we expect to set forth in our initial 2014 outlook is strong same tower cash revenue growth similar to 2013, which we expect to finish the year in the 9% to 10% range before iDEN terminations. We see a tremendous amount of amendment activity again in 2014 at an increased number of new leases. We have included no material contribution in 2014 from any customer that was not reasonably active in 2013. So that would exclude DISH and Public Safety. We are anticipating in our services outlook some Sprint 2.5G activity, although not in our leasing outlook. Please keep in mind that our 2014 outlook reflects site leasing revenue on a GAAP basis, while our tower cash flow, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO outlooks are all on a cash basis. Total noncash leasing revenue in 2014 is estimated to be approximately $43 million compared to $66 million in 2013, a $23 million difference. As is our custom, our outlook includes only those towers we own, intend to build or have under agreement to acquire as of today. And we do not guide to any stock repurchases. As a result, we are today, including in our initial 2014 guidance a level of discretionary capital investment well below 2013 levels and well below our guided AFFO. As I mentioned earlier, it will be our goal to invest additional material amounts of capital in portfolio growth or perhaps stock repurchases or both. Assuming the one refinancing contemplated in our outlook ahead of the maturity of our 2014 convertible notes, we will have significant liquidity that could be deployed for additional asset growth and/or stock repurchases. Based on our estimated 2014 year-end run rate adjusted EBITDA, we could invest approximately an additional $800 million into portfolio growth and still maintain our target net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage levels. In the aggregate, we believe our initial 2014 outlook is strong with potential opportunities for improvement throughout the year. Our focus next year is straightforward: execute well against the favorable macro environment, add quality growth assets and continue to take advantage of what is expected to be a favorable financing market. We expect to once again, produce material growth across a number of key metrics, including growth in AFFO per share. Before we open it up for questions, I want to recognize the contributions of our employees and customers to our success. Our employees work really hard to achieve the goals of our customers. Our employees do a great job. Our customers recognize that. And as a result, we are a preferred provider for our customers' network needs. Our customers are and we think will remain, extremely busy improving and expanding their wireless networks. We look forward to continued success as we finish this year and move into 2014. Rochelle, at this time, we're ready for questions.