Executives
Management
Javier Marín Romano – CEO Jose Antonio Alvarez – CFO Javier Marín Romano: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you very much for joining us for this Third Quarter Results Presentation for Group Santander. And Jose Antonio Alvarez, Chief Financial Officer of the Group is joining me for this presentation. I will basically go through the main figures for what has been the third quarter. Then Jose Antonio will comment on the results for each geography and each area. I will come back with a summary of conclusions and for the priorities for the group for the next quarters. In an environment that shows signs of improvement, but which remains complex, the Group focused on two aspects. On the one hand and in line with previous quarters, maintain a strong balance sheet in terms of liquidity and capital and continue to reinforce the capacity to generate results. On the other hand, we are laying the foundations for our more efficient management in allocating capital and investments, generating more revenues by taking advantage of the group economies of scale, thus let’s say integrating multi-group, better segmentation with a great focus on customers. Some key figures and messages for this quarter. First thing, with respect to volumes that continue to reflect the different macroeconomic situation of the countries where we operate. We see our larger growth in deposits, a larger rise in deposits than in loans, that they shrink by 2% because of the de-leveraging of certain of the economies where we operate. As a result, we maintain a very comfortable liquidity ratio, the loan to the positive ratio stands at 108%, but this – and especially backed by Spain, where the loan-to-deposit ratio sits at 85%. Just let me remind you that we have grown in more than 230 billion in deposits over the last five years. With respect to capital, we registered again a strong organic capital generation in the quarter, increasing the core capital to 11.56 by 45 basis points in line to comfortably meet Basel III or we expect to be always above 11% for the phase-in ratio and above 9% for the fully loaded one. We have a very strong profit for the first nine months, 77% year-on-year. Of course affected because of the lowering of provisioning that were extraordinary last year for the two royal decrease that affected the real-estate assets. The third quarter, we had flat profits taking into account exchange rates. Exchange rates have had definitely a big impact over this quarter. If we eliminate this impact, the profit for the quarter increased 8.5% with respect to the previous one. Thanks to stable revenues on declining provisions. Let’s look to each of these points. This slide shows the evolution of GDPs in Santander footprint, helping us to better understand the context in which we are conducting our business, which is basically our context of lower growth and lower interest rates. The macro-picture this year, is still unfavorable. You see basically that only three countries grew above last year for the first half, where the rest of them are basically decreasing. Three economies improving, Brazil, U.K. and Argentina, the rest reducing like Poland or Mexico, are still in recession like Spain or Portugal. The good news is that the forecast for 2014 from the IMF points to a general improvement and a significant one. This will be probably the first year since 2007, where the 10 economies will re-operate, will have positive growth. We have positive news for Spain and Portugal where they get out of recession. We have heard the expectations from the IMF 0.2 of growth for Spain and 0.8 for Portugal. Our forecast for Spain is that we’ll be – is well above this. We expect that the Spanish economy should be growing at a pace close to 1% and still with room for some even more positive surprises. While we see faster growth in Germany, in Poland, the U.K. and the U.S. and in Latin America we’ll see our recovery in Mexico that has been affected because of the change of government that occurred this year and basically unchanged growth in Brazil and Chile. Meanwhile of course we’ll have low interest rates that will continue to accept pressure on revenues in some countries. In this context, and taking into account the strategy of the Group of strengthening our retail franchises in the last years, we have this reflected in the balance sheet. Where basically we see a de-leverage in mature markets because of lower demand for loans together with more selective growth of reduction in higher risk products, basically real-estates in Spain portfolios or portfolios in run-off in the U.S. We have a stronger and more balanced growth in emerging countries with acceleration in the third quarter in Brazil, Mexico and Chile, although below our forecasts. Just in Spain, basically create strength, although Jose Antonio will come in later, in Spain we’ll create strength over this first nine months by about 6%. Net new loans to SMEs -- sorry grocery loans to SMEs accounted for €31 billion plus €11 billion of bond issues for SMEs that work either lead managed by the bank. Even though we are still as I said before, the current stock is diminishing by about between 5% and 6%, but we are gaining market share by 0.4 points. As a result of these decrease in loans and increase in deposits, the loan-deposit gap has been reduced by €62 billion since the beginning of 2012. This figures covers the maturities of medium and long-term debt in this period. And so this year we have sharply reduced the volumes of issues by the group. The long-term deposit ratio as I said before stands within our comfort zone at 108%. Just let me remember that the comfort zone where we would like to be is between 110% and 115%. With respect to capital, the group maintains its strong capital generation in the third quarter. Basel II Core capital grew by 45 basis points in the quarter, and 123 basis points since the end of 2012 accelerating the growth over the last few years. This was due basically to profit generation favored of course by the high acceptance of the scrip dividends between 80% and 85%. Another reduction in risk-weighted assets, due basically because of the shrinking of the balance sheet by the reduction of credits and the positive impact of the new SMEs definition that was applied in Spain, in accordance with the European definition of SMEs. We also continue to improve our leverage ratio, shareholder’s equity to total assets in the quarter. According to the IMF criteria, we grew to 7%, this is the same criteria we used in the last presentation. So now you can all make your own calculations with respect to what this will represent in accordance with CRD4. In short, we are very comfortable with our capital and liquidity levels and with our capacity to grow and strengthen our balance sheet. We just received the letters from the European Central Bank with respect to the risk-assessment the asset quality and the stress test. We don’t expect any surprises from these exercises. We hope that it will definitely recognize our low-risk model and the low risk profile of the retail bank that we are. We are very comfortable towards a meeting with the criteria of Basel III. We will always be above 9% on a fully loaded basis and 11% on the phase-in. And it is very important to show the great capacity of the group to generate organically capital. With respect to profits, the attributable profit in the quarter was €1 billion and €55 million in line with the second quarter. If we exclude the exchange rate impact it was 8.5% higher, the profit for the nine months stood at €3.31 billion, 77% more than in the same period of 2012 given the big impact of real-estate provisions in the second half of 2012. This is the first step towards the normalization of the group profit. Let me just remember that these results do not include the €700 million of net profit that we will generate from the strategic alliance for the asset management unit, which are expected to materialize on the last quarter of this year. If we take a look to the P&L account. The first thing to note is the big impact of exchange rates as I mentioned before. So, I will comment basically on the grade line, that is basically excluding the exchange rates where we will see basically the efforts of management on the results of the management of the bank over this quarter. In relation to the first nine months of 2012, exchange rates explain two thirds of the falling gross income and close to half of the decline in net operating income. If we eliminate their impacts gross income decline by 2.9% due to the liquidity buffer. The narrowing of the spreads due to the change in the mix to our lower risk products in some countries like Brazil and lower lending volumes. Costs were slightly below the average inflation of the group. And low provisions were lower year-on-year. Lastly, the higher attributable profit reflects the impact of large real-estate provisions in 2012. We have a better evolution on our quarter, if we take a look to the quarter-on-quarter. Attributable profit was 8.5 higher after correcting the impact of exchange rates. The lower provision this quarter particularly in Brazil, explains a rise in attributable profit. Gross income wasn’t changed and costs reflected some revision of collective agreements basically in Brazil that we will comment later. And one-off factors basically in Mexico. With respect to the gross income, there are fewer basically two lines, the line that is excluding the impact of exchange rates and the bars that are including the impact of exchange rates. At constant exchange rates, gross income showed a stabilization trend in the last few quarters and reflecting some seasonal factors in the third quarter mainly for Spain. Important to say, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, that seven out of our 10 countries had a better income in the third quarter than in the second quarter. In current euros, the evolution is conditioned by the large depreciation of Latin American currencies which reduced growth and gross income by 5 percentage points. Another point is the composition of gross income which shows a significant degree of recurrence. Roughly 90% of the income of the group comes from net interest income on fee income, which we take into account only the operating areas, this percentage would grow to 93%. We have a reduced proportion of trading gains 9%, a lot of that related to client activity. Even though this is half of our peers that stand at this level at 17% in the first half of 2013. The rest of the revenues basically dividends, equity accounting methods and so on accounted for barely 2% of the income of the group. In terms of costs, we have a different performance by units, countries, depending on their momentum. On one hand the clients in those units going through an integration process like Spain or Poland, or adjusting the structures for loan growth like Portugal. On the other hand, some higher costs in franchises under development or growth like Mexico, the U.S. or Brazil. An effort is made in the letter to combine growth in the business capacity with control over spending. For example, the pace of growth in Brazil, costs continue to decline, 3% so far this year compared to 6% inflation. For the group as a whole, and at constant exchange rates, costs rose slightly below the average inflation rates of the countries that we operate. The average inflation for this country stands at 3.7%. At the same time and compared to our peers, we maintain a significant advantage in efficiency and we have the potential to keep on improving. I believe that in the coming quarters, with integrations at cruising speeds plus additional efficiency measures that we will comment later, we will see further cost cuts. This is key to adapt to a new environment of lower growth and lower interest rates. And to enhance the value proposition to our customers, becoming a more attractive bank for them. With respect to integrations, in Spain and Poland, both are ahead of schedule, which has reflected in the outward revision in the forecast for synergies. In Spain, we have the first wave of branches, 130 that was already rebranded. We have brought forward the exercise of re-branding. The whole Banesto branch will be rebranded to Santander before year end. We will bring forward the initial branch integration plan. You will remember we had, the plan was to close 750 branches, 250 this year and the rest next year. We will bring this forward to close 450 this year. We have already achieved almost 40 by September. And now that everything has been tested and works well, it will be accelerated over this year last quarter. In technology, branches already in four regions, in the center north, we have been successfully immigrated in September, with basically no incidences. We plan that 100% of the branch migration will take place before the end of the year. In Poland, the Kredyt Bank branches are already operating with the same brand and technology as the Bank Zachodni. Now that the re-branding of Zachodni has been fully completed, we are working on the transition to the Santander brand. The optimization of branches and headcount is also proceeding ahead of schedule and surpassing the intermitted goals in synergies. Technology integration is enabling us to launch common products in the unified branch network. This will help and it’s already helping to improve the productivity of the former Kredyt Bank branches. Let me remind that Zachodni is notable for its innovation and leadership in credit cards, in electronic banking and in mobile banking. Even though it’s not an integration, there is something important occurred recently that has been the re-branding of our bank in the U.S. from Sovereign to Santander. This shows a commitment to the country, to our employee’s, and to our clients. It places more pressure on us to improve the quality of service at the bank. We’re working hard to simplify the bank, to streamline the processes, incorporating new tools like the new mobile app that has been successfully implemented and with very good comments from our clients. So step by step definitely we’re working to improve the retail franchise that we have in the U.S. With respect to credit quality, it is basically maintaining the trends. The non-performing loan ratios stood at 5.43 up 25 basis points in the quarter, in line in terms of growth with previous quarter, except for the second one where we had the reclassification of sub-standard loans in Spain that was incorporated. The rise in the ratio was basically due to Spain. Because half of it, because of the fall of the credit, let’s say the fall of the denominator. On the other hand, we had units that account for two third of the Group loans that show stability or an improved non-performing loan ratio. Jose Antonio will come in later with more detailed price unit. Coverage remains at 65%, high level in relation to the mix of our credit portfolio. More than half of our credit portfolio are secured loans that require normal coverage. I mean, in certain countries, where we have the proportion of secured loans is lower due to the consumer business in countries like Brazil and Mexico, [this coverage] level, well close or above 100%. The evolution of the non-performing loan in the large units, we see basically Brazil where we have a new decline in the non-performing loan ratio, 37 basis points in the quarter, which confirms the trend we announced and return (inaudible) to the levels we had in the first half of 2012. The reduction was due both to individuals and corporates. And the declines were anticipated in the previous quarters because of the evolution of the early non-performing loans, let’s say maturities of less than 90 days that are materializing. In the U.K. the ratio has remained stable, at around 2% like the previous quarters. The Spain’s ratio, continue on a rising trend basically for [few] reasons. As I said before the denominator explained half of the rise around 30 basis points. We continue to see a rise in companies that the new entrants in non-performing loans continue at high levels, although stabilizing. The impact of unifying the Santander on Banesto loan portfolios to the most conservative criteria, we already mentioned this in the last quarter because we did a provision of €188 million. But now that we have the recognition of this non-performing loans into the – due to the more consolidated criteria in the figures for this quarter. My views are, we will continue to see an increase on the non-performing loan ratio. We should be close in Spain to 7% by year end. Although by next year, we should already begin to see a reduction of the cost of credit on our trend towards normalization. With respect to provisions (inaudible), first, is the trend of decline in total provisions in 2012 with respect to 2012 sorry. Secondary provisions made in the third quarter are the lowest since the beginning of 2012, we have low levels in Brazil, the U.K. Santander Consumer Finance Portugal and the U.S. in contrast to the still high levels that we have in Spain as mentioned and in Mexico, because of the home builders. And the regulatory change to provision with respect to expected losses that Jose Antonio will comment later. Lastly, these trends are reflected in a new and significant reduction in the group cost of credit in the third quarter. It is still that 1.77% calculated on the basis of the provisions for the last 12 months as a percentage of the average credit risk. It would take the quarter on a standalone basis, this ratio would be – the cost of credit would stand at 1.47% which compares favorably to the 1.65% that we had on the second quarter. It is the best figures of the last two years, still higher than the pre-crisis levels. Let me remember that in 2008 we had 1% cost of credit and in 2007 0.63%. These are the levels towards we should return in the coming years. I now hand over the mic over to Jose Antonio, who will comment on the different business areas.