Executives
Management
Javier Marín Romano – CEO Jose Antonio Alvarez –CFO Juan Manuel Cendoya Mendez de Vigo – EVP, Communication, Corporate Marketing and Research Javier Marín Romano: Okay. We’ll start. Good morning to everybody. Welcome to Santander’s First Half Results Presentation. Jose Antonio Alvarez, CFO of the Bank; and Manuel Cendoya de Vigo will be joining me for this presentation. As usual, I will begin with some key facts and figures for the Group. Later on, Jose Antonio will do the same with the respect to the individual units. And then, we will open – I will close with a few conclusions, and then we will open the – some time for Q&A. Let me start with a few highlights of what has been the second quarter for the bank. Santander continues to develop its business on a very complex macroeconomic and regulatory environment. The Group maintained the priorities of previous quarters; strong balance sheet in terms of liquidity and capital, and reinforcing underlying results offsetting external impacts in several units. Some key features, business volumes reflect the macroeconomic situation of the countries where we operate and the strategy of bolstering the balance sheet vis-à-vis in a sharp negative impact from exchange rates. Excluding it for management purposes, the Group’s deposits grew 7% and loans decreased 2% while de-leveraging in some countries. As a result, there was a further improvement in liquidity with a ratio of loan-to-deposits already moving into 107% which is a very comfortable ratio for us. There was a very strong organic generation of capital in the quarter, 44 basis points with a BIS II ratio rising to 11.11%, and of course very comfortably in order to meet the Basel 3 requirements for the end of the year. Of note in results were revenue stability, with some countries recovering and a still high provisions but much lower than 2012, where we had the exceptional provisions for the real estate loans in Spain. The first half attributable profit was EUR2.255 billion, the same as for the whole 2012. Let us look a little bit into these points. We have created a little composite here of what has been the growth of GDP in accordance with the footprint of the bank. We see basically the emerging markets growing slightly better, of course in the developing world but of course at a slower pace than they did last year at 2.3% with better prospects for 2014 where the IMF is already expecting a 3.3% growth. For developed countries, we would say that they were basically flat, and some countries in recession like Spain or Portugal and some other with a flat growth. And again with some better prospects for 2014, where the IMF is expecting with these composite index growth of 1.4% in the economies where we operate. Interest rates are also impacting business this year. We have flat interest rates, the historic lows in our – in the matured countries where we operate and we will see this at least until 2014. And we saw a sharp fall in interest rates in emerging market, around 140 basis points on an average compared with the first half of 2012, which is more than 20% in relative terms, especially this taking place in Brazil, although here we’ve seen are several where they are still in reversion in this trend and in Poland. How this translates into our loan and deposit growth. It is some de-leveraging mature markets due to lower demand for loans combined with more selective growth and even reduction in some areas, and some products like real estate in Spain or some portfolios in run-off that we have in the USA. We have a higher and more balanced growth in emerging markets that has accelerated through the second quarter, especially in Brazil, Mexico, and Chile, and that we expect especially in the three of them to accelerate over the next quarters. This has translated obviously into the liquidity position of the bank. As a consequence of the evolutions of loans and deposits, the liquidity trend continues to improve. We narrowed the trade deposit gap by EUR63 billion in 18 months which more than covers the maturity of medium long-term debt for this period. The liquidity ratios showed improvement. The most basic one, the loan-to-deposit ratio stands now at 107% within our comfort levels that will be between 110% and 115%. Worth to mention is our loan-to-deposit ratio for Spain, which Jose Antonio will later on elaborate on, which now stands at 85%. In terms of capital, the Group has continued to strongly generate capital organically during the second quarter. Basel 2 Core capital was 44 basis points higher, absorbing the negative impact of interest rates that impacted 11 basis points in the quarter. This rise was due basically first of all from profit retention favored by a high acceptance of the scrip dividend between 80% and 85% -- 86% for the last scrip that we announced a week ago. And there is also a sharp fall in risk-weighted assets of 7% stemming from reduced credit risk and improvement in market and operational risk. The leverage ratio, equity to total assets also improved to 6.80% according to IMF criteria. There has been no substantial changes in the Basel 3 ratio or what we have already been announced. Basically during the phase-in, we will see a very comfortable position always over 11% and in a fully-loaded 2019 that will always sit above 9%. From above, Santander has a few advantages over the mid-term compared to other banks. First a low capital buffer for systemic risk. We are at the lowest level, 100 basis points, that compares favorably to the average of our peers in Europe that are at 160 basis points and some of our competitors that stand at 250 basis points. As a consequence of course of having a lower risk profile than many of our competitors, and thus requiring smaller capital surplus. The second advantage that we see is basically the launch of the Single Supervisor in 2014. Single Supervisor will conduct a stress test basically through an asset review over the last part of this year, and then a stress test over the first half of next year, where they will go through as very thorough review of the quality of our assets in the balance sheets, and then a stress testing of the bank. It’s worth to mention that we already underwent a similar stress test just a year ago. Out of this, we were the only bank generating Core Tier 1 capital over the period with a surplus of more than EUR25 billion of capital even in the most – even in the toughest situation. However, I would like to mention that over the last five years – the last five years have been a truth – the truly stress test for the bank where we have provisioned EUR60 billion, generated more than EUR20 billion in capital, provided to our investors more than EUR20 billion in dividends, and of course coming out of the crisis really in a much more – in a much stronger situation in terms of balance sheet capital and liquidity than before. Another advantage we believe is the new Crisis Management Directive. The new framework as you all know requires a bail-in of 80% of liabilities and shareholders’ equity before records to external aid, governments, the European funds or whatever which is limited to 5% of the banks liabilities. This mechanism introduced much greater market discipline and rewards the soundest and best managed banks regardless of where the parent bank is based. In other words, investors would rather be in a good bank that is in a lesser stronger country of residence than a weaker bank but that is in a stronger country. In the case of Santander Spain, our Core Tier 1 plus the hybrids exceed 9% of liabilities. So this means that in case of any trouble, not only our deposits would be safe but also our senior bonds. Another advantage for us with respect to the launch of the Senior Supervisor is the ratio of transformation of assets into risk-weighted assets. Relevant studies like the studies from the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision or study that we – here in Spain, we asked Oliver Wyman to produce. So very strong local differences, focused on credit risk and loss giving default liabilities in the wholesale portfolios, especially in the case of the report from Oliver Wyman, the Spanish banks, should we apply the same rules that are applied in Central Europe would have – would increase their capital levels between 100 and 150 basis points. We believe that Santander is among the bank with the highest ratio of transformation of assets into risk-weighted assets, significantly above the average of our European peers. You see there in the graph that the ratio of transformation is around 44% that compares to the average of 33% of our peers in Europe, and compares to some of our competitors that are even below 20%. As a conclusion I would say, after taking a look into the liquidity and capital, that we are very comfortable with our liquidity and capital ratios and which both together generate a great foundation for the new future for growth. In terms of Group profit, the second quarter profit was EUR1.050 billion. This excludes of course the capital gains, extraordinary capital gains from the agreement with Aegon that has been offset by some restructuring costs for the integrations in Spain and Poland, and of course we have not included the EUR700 million of capital gains from these strategic agreement for Santander Asset Management that should be booked over the second quarter of – the second half of this year. The profit for the first half that is EUR2.255 billion is 29% above the results for the same period of 2012. And basically the same as the one we had over the whole last year, given the impact of the real estate provisions in the second half of year 2012. We believe that this is the first step towards the normalization of the Group’s profit. With respect to the P&L, we will say basically three main aspects, three key features to point out; year-on-year fall in gross income, largely due to exchange rates which took about 4 percentage points of growth and accounts for about one-third of the decline. The liquidity buffer, as we show, the increase in the liquidity position of the bank that accounts for one quarter in decrease, and the narrowing of the spreads in a few countries that could not offset the growth in volumes in the same, that accounts for another quarter. Loan-loss provision was lower than in 2012. With, I would say a broad improvement across the different units, should we – and in terms of real estate provisions in the first half of 2012, were higher than the capital gains while in 2013, gains were neutralized. Compared to the first quarter, we see a slight rise in growth in gross income, both in the financial margin and in commissions. Provisions actually increased 5% but should we exclude an extraordinary provision of EUR188 million resulting from the merger of Banesto, as customers were recorded on a like-for-like basis under the most conservative criteria, provisions would have actually decreased compared to the first quarter of this year. This has to do a lot with the standardized loans of course, and not with the individualized managed ones. This extraordinary charge will be compensated over the next year – semester with some future capital gains. Other results were higher because the first quarter of 2013 were below the normal levels. In the second quarter, they are back to more normal levels. Basically within this item, we have the extraordinary charges for registers and civil lawsuits in Brazil. Our expenses levels, we would say that costs were basically flat as a result of declines in countries where integration aren’t taking places like in Spain and Poland. We have also lower costs in Portugal, higher on the other hand in other countries where we are developing or growing our franchises, i.e. Brazil, the US and Mexico. In Brazil, although Jose Antonio will explain, our costs grow below inflation; in US they grow due to opened IT investments in order to grow our franchise. And in Mexico, as you all know, we are extending our branch network and we have opened more than 90 branches over the last year. We are making a big effort in order to combine business capacity growth with control over spending. We are maintaining a significant advantage in efficiency over our peers, but I am sure that we have still a lot of potential to keep on improving with the integrations that cruising in speed especially in the Spain and at a minor level in Poland, we will see there is still some more cost reductions. With respect to credit quality, the trends in the ratios basically continue. Coverage remains stable at around 70% following the provision that was made in 2012. The stability – we have a stability in the quarter in most units, except for Poland and Mexico due to one-off factors. In Poland basically to one operation in the developing world, and in the developers world, and in Mexico due to as to the developers and also to the slowing of the economy that we have experienced over this first half of the year, that has basically affected the numbers for consumption but we think that will come back during the next few quarters. We have no surprise on the non-performing loans ratio, 16 basis points more than the first quarter coming from 4.76 into 4.92. The non-performing loans entries were the same as in the first quarter and below the quarterly average for the last two years. We see new non-performing loans in some countries like Spain or Brazil basically coming down. And of course, we have the impact of the ratio of the fall of credit that actually accounts for about one quarter in the rise of the ratio of the non-performing loans, excluding the exchange rate impact. To this evolution, we should add the additional impact from reclassification of sub-standard operations in Spain, which is the dotted line you see in the chart. It represents an increase of 26 basis points at the Group non-performing loan ratio, one percentage point only if we take a look into Spain. In our case, it affects basically EUR2 billion which were previously recorded as sub-standard loans and are now recorded as non-performing loans. I would like to mention that 93% of these new non-performing loans actually are performing, so the clients are basically paying on these loans. So I would like to mention this as some technical non-performing loans. This reclassification would not have an impact on provisions as this portfolio had a provision already of EUR340 million in accordance with what is traditional conservative policy of the bank. We have a portfolio there of EUR3 billion of the mortgages that have been refinanced, out of which EUR2 billion have been reclassified into non-performing loans in accordance with a circular from Bank of Spain that have already this EUR340 million of provisions. We have an extra EUR200 million provision for the other EUR1 billion mortgages refinanced that are still classified as sub-standard, and for the overall portfolio of EUR33 billion that we have in reclassified loans, which have a real estate warranty of 84% we have a provision of EUR6.6 billion that we think is more than enough for what we expect from this portfolio. With respect to the three basic units, they have evolved of course differently. Expense ratio continues to rise mostly due of course to this reclassification. There is also a numerator company in terms of the non-performing loans continue to grow in companies, although the entrances are flat with respect to the previous quarter and we have the decline in lending, the reduction in the stock. The later was responsible for 15 basis points of the increase during the second quarter. There is a slight drop in the UK, both in retail as well as in companies. Our ratios in mortgages and foreclosed properties continued to be better than our peers. And the good news come from Brazil, where basically you see a sharp fall of 41 basis points in the second quarter, confirming the trends we already announced on bringing the non-performing loan ratio below to the one we had in June 2012. We think we’ll have reached the pick for both individuals and companies in Brazil in terms of non-performing loans, and we the arrears income for the fifth quarter in a row below. So we think that this should produce into the next quarters into a reduction in the non-performing loan ratio for Brazil. With respect to provisions and cost of credit; the credit quality is basically of course reflected in provisions with two basic ideas. First, for the second quarter’s provisions were lower than the average for the previous quarters. By units, we see the rises in Spain basically in companies as we mentioned. And in Mexico, homebuilders and a slightly consumer credit is due to the deceleration of the company – of the economy which is offset by significant falls in the rest of the big units precisely Brazil and the UK or the USA. Second, after the real estate provision we did in 2012, the Group’s cost of credit has started to decline. It was 2.05% calculated as the provisions for the last 12 quarters over the average lending taking into account only the second quarter on a stand-alone basis, it would come down to 1.65% annualized. This is too high compared to pre-crisis levels. I remember that in 2008, we had 109 basis points and in 2007, 63 basis points and towards these levels, we should move within the coming years. Let me hand now the mike now to Jose Antonio that will elaborate a little bit more on the evaluation of the different units, and I will come back for some conclusions.