Rusty Rush
Analyst · Credit Suisse. You may proceed
Well, that's -- I'm going to -- I will start with the truck market. That's probably easier for me then I will get back to [Technical Difficulty] I want to approach it. As you know, I don't give numbers out, okay? So I will build a model around -- you can build a model around the overall macro numbers and you guys get to do that. But I will get back to that in a second. As far as next year goes, it's still percolating out there in my mind. Obviously, you go back a year-ago in '18 -- '19 was already booked, everybody thought, right? So in my mind that -- the year still percolating, we're on business. I feel solid that our Q4 while being off in Q3 -- record Q3. I feel pretty good about Q1. I'm just not sure on some -- there's folks that are still debating what their purchasing is going to be like next year. Obviously, because if you look at what's going on, contract rates are getting big up really good out there. I mean, you guys are taking hits anywhere from 10%. And then the contracts are being -- tender rate acceptance, they are up 95%. There is an oversupply of new trucks in the marketplace right now. So that has to clean itself up and the big guys are going to be fine, getting through it. But as always in the last part of the cycle, you get the smaller mid-sized that's what came in earlier this year. That's why bankruptcies are up. That's why more repos, client growing right now. So we are in the middle of trying to -- that getting cleansed up. S0 -- but that has an effect on what people decide to do next year. They may wait a little longer. It may take some replacement trucks, but everyone remember this was the two biggest years since '05 and '06 ever in history. So there's a lot of trucks out there right now. Freight has been steady, but with an oversupply of trucks, the supply demand has driven rates down. And people are having to deal with that. And I think you will see that in some of the reports. But we are in that cleansing process. I know you ask me for when? I expect -- we got orders that are going to naturally -- will be a little better here in these next three months, okay? That's just natural. They're not going to be 10,000 units again. But do they only go to 20 or something like that? I don't know. Where they should be, which is up in the 35 range or something like that, not that crazy 50,000 that we were doing years or something ago. But you would look for -- to know that it is going to be real solid next year, you would look for order intake, coming in my mind, start creeping up in that 30,000 range. And I don't know if I see that just yet. But I’m not -- I don't represent all OEMs. I don't know what all the OEMs are doing and where that's at. We are taking -- I think there will be more business booked. Well, it -- I looked at ACT's number they put out a [indiscernible] I think for U.S retail. I will be honest. I don't see much upside to it, okay, if at all. If anything I see a slightly some downside in that number. But that's just Class 8 truck sales. I mean it's an election year. People sometimes don't enjoy not knowing what's going on, right, and the fleets pretty fresh out there right now. So we know that might wait a little bit longer before I order. And this is just my opinion, okay? In fact, I've seen it like -- happened like that before. I think I'm getting old now, I'm 61. So I have seen a few of these. So, Jamie, I can't pinpoint it. But I can tell you, I buy into the 204, at high-end for U.S retail deliveries next year coming off of 277 or whatever it should be this year, wherever it lands. Getting slight Q4, but it will get going down compared to Q3. So I mean Q4, there will be often deliveries compared to Q3. Not just me, the industry. So I know you're asking for when? I'm not giving you the exact, because I'm not sure either right now. I really I'm not. I know what will work in business and I don't work, we're pretty solid. But I have -- I still got a year to make. I feel pretty good, we're working still -- I'm still working the first quarter. I can get you a truck right now, if you want one in the first quarter. So it's back to that. We don't have these nine month lead times anymore. It's more back to this more 60-day stuff, right. So …