John Pinkerton
Analyst · Johnson Rice
Thanks, Rodney. Overall, we're very pleased with fourth quarter and full year 2010 results. On a year-over-year basis, fourth quarter production rose 18%, beating the high end of our guidance. Fourth quarter production averaged $541 million a day, a record high for Range. This also represented our 32nd consecutive quarter of sequential production growth. For the year, production rose 14%. Adjusting for the property sales, production would have risen by 19%. At year end, crude reserves totaled 4.4 Tcf, a 42% increase over 2009. This represented a reserve replacement of 931% from all sources. Our SG&A cost averaged $0.71 per mcfe, the lowest in our history. Our drilling program delivered 840% reserve replacement at a cost of $0.59 per mcfe. These results reflect selling properties which contained 189 Bcfe and removing 230 Bcfe due to the five-year development rule. Based on what we see to date, these look like some of the best if not the best results in the industry. We combined exceptional growth in production reserves with low find and development cost. That is the hard part of our business, combining high growth with low costs. Again, this performance is attributable to our high-return, low-cost drilling inventory coupled with a very talented and dedicated technical team. Importantly, once again, both production and reserves per share on a debt-adjusted basis increased by over 10%. At Range, it's all about per-share results, as we believe that is what drives valuation. From a financial perspective, we continued our disciplined and simple approach. Bank debt declined, while total debt rose modestly. Debt per mcfe of reserves declined both on total proved and on a proved developed basis. We ended the year with almost $1 billion of liquidity under our bank credit facility, and, importantly, as the largest individual shareholder of Range, I was very happy and pleased to see that the average shares outstanding rose only by 1.1% during 2010. I'm also pleased what we didn't do in 2010. Other than a small $135-million very attractive acquisition of properties directly offsetting our Nora field, we stayed disciplined and focused on developing our Marcellus position and our other key projects. In summary, 2010 was a value-creating year in that production reserves per share both rose more than 10%. Our find and development cost of $0.71 looks to be the one of the lowest in the industry. We continue to drive down our unit cost, in particular, our find and development cost and our lease operating costs both materially decreased. Lastly, we maintained a strong balance sheet and ended the year with the most liquidity in our history. I want to take a moment to congratulate the entire Range team for a job very well done in 2010. Now instead of following our more traditional conference call format, I'm going to focus on what we believe are the key issues facing Range today. Said another way, I'm going to try to attempt to connect the dots as we look forward. First, let's focus on the balance sheet. We expect to close the Barnett sale in late April. Upon closing, we will pay down our bank debt facility, or bank credit facility, to zero and have roughly $400 million of invested cash. As recently announced, we have renewed and extended our bank credit facility. Despite eliminating the Barnett property, our borrowing base increased by $500 million. In addition, we extended the term to 2016, reduced the cost and added more flexible covenants. So with the completion of the Barnett sale combined with the new credit facility, we will have by far the strongest balance sheet in our history. We will have go-forward liquidity of $1.9 billion and no debt maturities until 2015. Second, let's discuss the Barnett sale we announced yesterday. We have recently announced our intention to sell the Barnett properties in October of last year. We looked at all the alternatives and concluded selling the Barnett properties was the most accretive course of action. Our decision to sell the Barnett property was strengthened by the exemplary results we were having in the Marcellus, Nora, Midcontinent and Permian basin. Given our results in these areas and our extensive inventory of opportunities, we believe recycling the Barnett sales proceeds into these higher-return projects was the right thing to do for Range and its shareholders. While we prefer to sell properties in a higher price environment, our thought was that we would reinvest the proceeds back into higher-return projects in essentially the same relative natural gas price environment. Said another way, if we felt the futures prices for natural gas were going to move materially higher in the near term, we would have waited for prices to rebound before selling the Barnett properties. Very simply, we view the sale as recycling capital from lower-return properties into higher-return properties. While many analysts had a view back in October of what we would receive, my view was that a reasonable price would be in the $1.1 billion range. So at a sales price of $900 million, it is roughly $200 million below my expectations. I believe the drop in the futures price for natural gas was a material factor in not meeting my original price expectation. However, in $900 million, the sales price is above our minimum, and the recycling effect is materially accretive to our NAV. We are familiar with the purchaser and are quite confident they will close. The purchaser has their financing lined up, and there is no financing out in the purchase and sale agreement. As mentioned previously, we anticipate the sale to close in late April. As a minor point, we retained two non-producing properties in the Barnett that we believe to have approximately $50 million of value. Now turning to the financial impact, because of the executed the purchase sale agreement prior to filing our 10-K, we deemed it appropriate to mark the Barnett properties to market. As a result, we recognized a $463 million non-cash impairment in our year-end 2010 financial statements. As I think about the impairment, it makes sense in that we invested all of our Barnett capital in a multiyear period when gas prices averaged roughly $8 per mcf. While accounting rules required that we record the impairment, we look at the sale more along the lines of a lifetime exchange, where we're exchanging Barnett properties for essentially Marcellus properties. The difference is that we're selling the Barnett properties at a single point in time, and we'll be reinvesting the proceeds over a one-and-a-half- to two-year period. From a tax perspective, we will recognize a gain of approximately $200 million which will be shielded by our $415 million NOL, so we will incur no cash taxes on the sale. Looking at the sale, our Barnett production is currently running at $113 million a day. So we're selling the properties at approximately $8,000 per flowing mcfe. We're receiving over 8x annual cash flow. Based on recent transactions, these are very reasonable metrics. I know some may compare our sale to the recent Chesapeake-announced Fayetteville sale. I think that the Chesapeake sale is a superior transaction based on the fact that they're receiving approximately $10,000 per flowing mcf. However, quite frankly, I think their properties, taken as a whole, are more attractive than ours. Their Fayetteville properties cover 487,000 net acres while our Barnett properties are 9x smaller, at 52,000 net acres. Also Chesapeake's Fayetteville acreage is much more blocked up than our Barnett acreage. Additionally, the Chesapeake-Fayetteville properties are producing 4x the volume as our properties and have 7.5x the number times more drilling locations than our properties. Although it's an asset deal, the purchaser of the Chesapeake properties appears to be paying a size and scale premium as well, which I think made the difference. Once we close the Barnett sale, we will lose approximately $113 million a day of production. Based on our model, we expect that we'll fully replace the lost production by the end of the third quarter this year. This illustrates why we are convinced that selling the Barnett and recycling proceeds is the highest and best use. Despite selling approximately 20% of our current production, we also anticipate generating double-digit year-over-year production growth for 2011 in the 10% range. As a point of reference, adjusting the Barnett sale, we anticipate the 2011 production would be more in the 25% range. Let's now turn and take a look at the Barnett sale, how it sets us up for 2011 and beyond with regard to capital spending and capital funding. The Barnett sale will generate $900 million of proceeds. We also have identified $200 million to $250 million of additional asset sales we plan to complete in the next 12 months, primarily in 2011. These are small miscellaneous properties and acreage that are not strategic, and their disposition has already been taken into account with regards to impact on production, growth, et cetera. We plan to spend $1.38 billion of capital expenditures for 2011. But at the end of 2011, we anticipate having approximately $400 million of excess proceeds to carry into 2012. Based on current futures prices for 2012, we currently estimate generating $850 million of cash flow. So when you combine that with the $400 million of carryover from 2011, we will have $1.25 billion. We currently anticipate that capital spending for 2012 will be equal to 2011. That will leave us approximately a $150 million gap for 2012, which can easily fund our new bank credit facility. Looking still further ahead, based on current futures prices, we currently anticipate we can fund 2011 and 2013 capital spending fully with internally generated cash flow and no asset sale. This plan was based on natural gas futures prices of a couple weeks ago that averaged $4.50 for 2011, $5 for 2012 and $5.25 for 2013. To connect more of the dots, as I mentioned, we anticipate that year-over-year production growth of 2011 will be 10% after deducting the production loss with the asset sales. I stated previously we anticipate the Marcellus production to grow from just over $200 million a day net at the end of 2010 to $400 million a day net at the end of 2011. We expect 2012 company-wide production growth to be in the 25% to 30% range, and we anticipate the Marcellus production will exceed $600 million a day net by the end of 2012. From both 2011 and 2012, we currently anticipate find and development costs to be $1 per mcf or lower. I'll say that again, because it is a very important point when you think about how we get to positive cash flow. We anticipate find and development cost of 2011 and 2012 to be $1 or lower. I think that will be well below the industry average and probably the top in our industry. This plan I just described is also balance-sheet friendly. At the end of 2012, we estimate that our debt-to-capital ratio will be lower and our debt per proved reserve will be materially lower than where we stand today. Clearly, what is driving these expected results is the Marcellus Shale play. As I noted above, we anticipate the Marcellus production actual rate will go from just over $200 million a day at year-end 2010 to over $600 million a day at the end of 2012. Currently, we have 790,000 net acres in the fairway of the Marcellus. Our current plan shows that we will alternately develop approximately 700,000 net acres. Some of our existing acres will likely be sold, traded, expire or may never be drilled to surface and other issues. In addition, we will spend capital dollars over the next several years renewing and extending leases. The resource potential numbers that we have published earlier this month are based on this plan and take into account the acreage numbers I just discussed. We also believe that approximately 60% of 700,000 net acres that we plan to develop for the Marcellus has potential for the Upper Devonian and Utica Shales. So by developing and holding the 700,000 net acres for the Marcellus, we are also capturing the Upper Devonian Utica resource potential. The size of Marcellus being one of the most economic plays in North America, we like it because it's really three plays in one. Because all the other share plays are essentially single-horizon plays versus the Marcellus, where we believe our acreage holds resource potential in the Upper Devonian and Utica as well as the Marcellus. We view the 700,000 net acres we plan to develop to be more like 1.5 million acres when you compare to the other plays. A very significant advantage we will have in developing the Upper Devonian Utica will be that we will be drilling, where we've been drilling Marcellus Wells, we've already incurred the cost for acreage, roads, surface location, water management, gas lines and compression. Therefore, the incremental costs to develop the Upper Devonian Utica will be reduced by approximately 1/3 versus developing these zones on a stand-alone basis. We believe this will allow us to continue to drive down the cost of the entire play. Now this is a good segue into the whole cost structure issue. Our strategy is to consistently generate double-digit per-share growth at top-quartile or better cost structure. Over the past five years, Range has had one of the better cost structures in the industry. However, as natural gas prices rose significantly, 2006, '07 and '08 time period, so did our unit cost. Most of the industry sold their unit cost rising even faster than ours. As a result, our DD&A costs, which is a reflection of your aggregate F&D cost over time, rose to a high of $2.48 per mcfe. Likewise, our leased operating costs rose to a high of $1.05 per mcfe. By selling our higher-cost properties and reinvesting in our higher-return, lower-cost properties, we have driven down these costs. Our DD&A costs had decreased from the high of $2.48 to $1.85 in the fourth quarter of 2010, a 25% reduction. We expect DD&A to decline to $1.75 for 2011 and reach $1.65 for the fourth quarter in 2011. Generally, lease operating costs have decreased from a high of $1.05 per mcfe to $0.72 for 2010, a 31% reduction. We anticipate lease operating cost to continue to decline to $0.65 in 2011, reaching $0.60 by the fourth quarter of the year. My current view is, to be consistently profitable in this business, your DD&A and lease operating costs combined need to be trending down to the $2 to $2.25 per mcfe range. We are clearly moving there, and I'm confident that our operating teams will get it there, and probably faster than I expect. With that, why don't I turn the call over to Roger, our CFO, to give you his thoughts and perspective? Roger?