Steve Louden
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open
Thanks Anthony. Our strong fourth quarter results capped off another great year. We executed well and delivered record results. Before taking your questions, I'll walk through operational and financial highlights and address the outlook. We saw a continued strong demand for players and TVs in the fourth quarter which resulted in an incremental $7.8 million active accounts for the year and ending 2018 with 27.1 million active accounts. Our scale has expanded rapidly over the last several years. We added just under six million active accounts in 2017 and nearly eight million more in 2018. In addition to increasing our scale, we continued to see growing engagement on the platform with 2018 streaming hours, up 9.2 billion year-over-year to 24 billion. As we mentioned in our shareholder letter, Roku users streamed more in the last year and a half than in the entire prior nine years combined. Not only are more people choosing Roku as their streaming platform, but they are also streaming more than ever. Please see our shareholder letter for the full financial details from the quarter. But I'll highlight a few items and provide our Q1 and full year 2019 outlook. Total Q4 revenue increased 46% year-over-year to $275.7 million with platform revenue up 77% to a record $151.4 million, representing 55% of total revenue. Player revenue growth of 21% year-over-year, again, came in ahead of our expectations with another strong quarter from retail channels and a well-executed holiday season. Player units were up 30% year-over-year and ASPs were down 8% as we continue to see strong demand for sub-$50 players. Our key financial performance metric is gross profit which was up 53% year-over-year this quarter to a record $112 million marking our first quarter above $100 million. Gross margin was 40.7%, up a 170 basis points year-over-year driven by solid platform margins, partially offset by the impact of player promotional activity during the holiday season that drove high unit growth in active accounts. We had a record number of net new hires in the fourth quarter and ended the year with over 1,100 employees up 36% year-over-year. We are attracting outstanding talent and believe the investments we are making in R&D, sales and marketing, and G&A are bolstering our market position now and strengthening our future growth opportunities. One of the key ways we attract talent is through competitive salaries and equity compensation. In 2018, we transitioned to an RSU-based comp structure and provided existing employees with their first post-IPO equity refresh brands. This created a step function increase in our stock-based comp which increased from a $11 million in 2017 to $38 million in 2018. We expect stock-based comp to increase to roughly $73 million in 2019. When compared with benchmarking data, we believe our stock-based comp is in line with our peers. OpEx in the quarter grew 67% to $106.8 million. Excluding stock-based comp, OpEx was up 49% year-over-year which is more in line with revenue and gross profit growth. Adjusted EBITDA grew 70% year-over-year to a record $24.5 million in Q4 and well ahead of our outlook as a result of higher revenue in gross profit. With that, let's turn to our outlook for the full year. As you saw in our letter, the midpoints of our 2019 outlook call for just over $1 billion in revenues and $450 million in gross profit. Each of roughly 36% year-on-year. Included in our outlook is platform revenue growth to roughly two-thirds of total revenue and roughly flat player revenue growth. For modeling purposes, you should plan for full year platform gross margins in the low 60s as a percent of revenue driven by continued mix shift to video advertising and introduction of premium subscriptions. For players, for modeling purposes, you should expect us to manage the player gross margin to low single-digit margins in 2019. We remind you that we are not optimizing for player gross profit given our focus on account growth and our strategy of trading player margin for account growth and platform revenue growth is working well. In prior forward-looking statements, we have consistently discussed managing the business to adjusted EBITDA breakeven, and our 2019 outlook reflects that continued approach. We are more confident than ever about Roku's fundamental competitive advantages and the huge opportunities that lie ahead and we have carefully prioritized a robust list of opportunities to pursue. While a meaningful portion of our OpEx is discretionary, we believe reinvesting gross profit back into the business is the right thing to do to drive long-term shareholder value. Our outlook calls for an $85 million net income loss in 2019 at the midpoint. But as a reminder, this includes expensing $73 million of non-cash stock-based comp and $12 million of depreciation and amortization. Q1 is seasonally the lowest revenue quarter for the year. For Q1, we expect player revenue to drop nearly 50% sequentially and platform revenue to fall nearly 20% sequentially. For Q1, our outlook is for year-over-year revenue growth of 37% at the midpoint. Platform revenue growth of roughly 60% year-over-year includes a tough comparison with Q1 2018 from the delivery of a new product to one of our Roku Powered partners. Excluding the impact of this item in the prior year, platform revenue growth would be more closely in line with Q4 growth rates. On the player side, our Q1 outlook factors in roughly high single-digit player revenue growth. Continued mix shift to video advertising is expected to be a drag on platform gross margin and when combined with a single-digit player gross margins, our gross profit growth outlook for Q1 is roughly 39% growth at the midpoint. One of the challenges that the Street seems to be struggling with in modeling Roku is that our OpEx is not seasonal. Headcount related expenses account for roughly three quarters of total OpEx and we have been and we'll continue to grow headcount throughout the year. As a result, Q1 OpEx is expected to be roughly $10 million higher in Q1 than in Q4 as we recognized the full quarter impact of the hiring that took place in Q4 as well as new hires in Q1. As a result, we expect to report an adjusted EBITDA loss of roughly $10 million at the midpoint and net income loss of roughly $30 million, which includes stock-based comp of $17 million and $3 million in depreciation and amortization in the quarter. We encourage you to factor in the seasonal revenue dynamics we have discussed and the sequential growth trends for OpEx going forward as well. I'll summarize by saying how pleased we are with the performance of the business by sharing a little perspective on where we have come from and where we are going. In 2015, Roku had nine million active accounts and a $50 million platform business and a $6 ARPU. In 2018, Roku had $27 million active accounts with a $417 million platform business and an $18 ARPU. As we look to 2019, we expect to achieve $1 billion in revenue with roughly two-thirds of that coming from platform monetization. The fundamentals of our business, the difficulty in replicating our strength and our laser focus on streaming, all give us confidence in our ability to deliver significant long-term shareholder value. With that let's turn the call over to for questions. Operator?