Steve Louden
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open
Thanks Anthony. Our strong third quarter results have put us on track for another record year. Active account growth of 43% year-over-year and streaming our growth of 63% year-over-year help deliver another quarter above our outlook. Please see our shareholder letter for the full financial details from the quarter, but I'll highlight a few items and provide some color on Q4 outlook. Total Q3 revenue increased 39% year-over-year to $173.4 million with platform revenue up 74% to a milestone of $100 million and representing 58% of total revenue. There are several key components to our platform business and I'd highlight that video ad sales, the largest part of the platform more than doubled year-over-year again this quarter. We also saw very strong results from the audience development business, which is closely linked to our content distribution business since many of our content partners take advantage of our marketing tools to attract audiences to their services. Player revenue growth of 9% was ahead of the outlook we provided with another strong quarter from retail channels. Player units were up 15% year-over-year and ASPs were down 5% as we continue to see strong demand for sub $50 players, particularly our new 4k Premiere Plus, which is priced at an incredible $49.99 at retail. We tightened our Q4 revenue outlook slightly but as a reminder, Q4 is seasonally our strongest quarter and is very backend loaded with the bulk of our revenues occurring between Black Friday and the end of the year. So Q4 is still heavily dependent on how the holidays stack up given the highly competitive retail environment. Our key financial performance metric is gross profit, which was up 58% year-over-year this quarter to a record $79 million. Gross margin was 45.6% up 560 basis points year-over-year, slightly ahead of expectations, due to strong audience development and solid player gross profit upside in the quarter. Q4 is more promotional for players and the mix shift to video ad generally pulls platform margins down from Q3 levels. We expect to see that pattern again this quarter with platform gross margins down modestly, sequentially and player gross profit dipping to low to mid-single-digit margins. We are investing in a wide range of growth opportunities for 2019 and beyond. So we continue to invest in attracting top talent to pursue them. OpEx in the quarter grew 57% to $90.7 million driven by a combination of continued rapid headcount growth and significantly higher stock-based comp and payroll taxes from stock option exercises. Adjusted EBITDA came in at a positive $2 million in Q3, our first positive adjusted EBITDA Q3 ever and well ahead of our outlook as a result of higher revenue and gross profit. With that brief overview, let me turn to our outlook for the full year. Based on our strong performance year-to-date and what we know as of today about account growth, engagement and monetization trends, we are again raising our full-year outlook. Our updated full-year outlook increases to 42% revenue growth and 63% gross profit growth at the midpoint, up from the prior growth rates of 40% and 60% respectively when we provided outlook in August. As a reminder we plan to reinvest gross profit upside back into R&D and sales and marketing to fuel continued growth and innovation, managing the business to roughly breakeven EBITDA during this period of market expansion. However, based on the strength of the first three quarters of 2018, we expect to deliver between $21 million and $28 million in adjusted EBITDA for the full year, up from our prior estimate of $11 million to $23 million. For Q4, our outlook is for year-over-year revenue growth of 38% at the midpoint with player and platform revenue growth roughly in line with Q3 levels. Continued mix shift to video advertising and seasonality in player margins is reflected in our outlook for year-over-year total gross profit growth of roughly 41% at the midpoint. While we expect to report positive EBITDA margins of roughly 6% in Q4, stock-based comp is expected to increase to roughly $15 million in the quarter as we see the full impact of RSU grants issued in Q3 to new and existing employees, which are expensed in the quarter that they are granted and as they vest. We look forward to providing more color on 2019 when we report our full 2018 results in February. Given the strength of the fundamentals of our business and our leadership position, we continue to see plenty of opportunity to reinvest our business to achieve our long-term growth potential. And with that, let's turn the call over for questions, operator?