Brian J. Lipke
Analyst · Robert W
Think you, Ken. Before we open the call to your questions, I wanted to talk about the outlook for Q4 and the quarters ahead. We continue to focus on organic growth opportunities, which will consume some of our approximate $200 million to $300 million of available manufacturing capacity as a key to our growth. We're continuing to be aggressive at driving organic growth and we feel good about our prospects in this area. In the residential repair and remodeling sector, we're not expecting significant improvement in Q4, but 2014 is shaping up to be a stronger year than 2013. Although the recovery and big-ticket remodeling has taken longer to materialize than we had anticipated, the latest published reports suggest that conditions may finally be improving. Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies index, leading indicator of remodeling activity, is dramatically up from where it was a year ago. The joint center's economists said in September that remodeling contractors have been reporting improving market conditions and are seeing strength in the future market indicators. Pent-up demand is 1 factor. It's been 6 years since the housing collapse and the home maintenance projects can only be deferred for so long. In addition, recent homebuyers are traditionally the most active home remodelers and this year's strength in existing home sales is beginning to translate into stronger sales of home improvement products. Given these dynamics, the LIRA index is projecting continued strengthening of the repair and remodeling market through the end of 2013 and into the first half of 2014. We remain optimistic about the outlook for new residential construction. Housing appears to be in the midst of a long-term recovery. The current reports on permits, seasonally adjusted starts and new home sales suggest that residential new build has lost some momentum recently. We believe this is in large part due to the rise in home prices and mortgage interest rates this past summer. The industry and its observers see this as a temporary slowdown, however, and our order flow for residential products suggest that they're right. After a slow start to the year, we are now seeing more new home building projects annually, actually being started, and our distributors also are gaining confidence in the recovery. We expect this trend to continue into the fourth quarter and into next years. The outlook in commercial new construction also appears to be favorable. The American Institute of Architects' Architectural Building (sic) [Billings] Index or ABI for the month of September was 54.3, up from 53.8 in August. Accordingly, this means that business conditions at architectural firms have been steadily improving over the past year. This improvement signals an impending [indiscernible] in nonresidential construction activity. In light of these dynamics, for 2014, we anticipate 10% to 15% year-over-year growth in the residential and low-rise commercial new construction sector. We're leveraging the momentum in both the new construction and the repair and remodeling markets, residential, as well as commercial, by aggressively launching new and modified products for the building industry. Products that we developed organically, as well as by acquisition. Last quarter, I talked about the growth of package deliveries as consumers continue to order more and more over the Internet. Gibraltar is focused on providing solutions to this growing need. One example of our efforts in this area include a new secured delivery solution we've introduced for apartments and condominiums that eliminates the need to have someone at the front desk to handle parcel deliveries. This is one of a long line of new product initiatives being undertaken. Parallel with that, we're developing a suite of new products that align with the U.S. Postal Service strategy to take costs out of their business, which creates numerous growth opportunities for Gibraltar. In the residential and low-rise commercial sector, we introduced one of the most innovative products in years during the third quarter, a product that's gaining traction for us. It's a new type of roof jack. A roof jack is the metal device that prevents rainwater from leaking around the plumbing and heating vent pipes that protrude up through a shingled roof. The difference between this new roof jack and conventional products is that ours is articulating, meaning that a single design can be installed regardless of what the pitch of the roof is. This makes it easier for builders and contractors to manage their inventories and it's been extremely well received in both of these communities as a result. In our construction products business, despite the slowdown in Q3, we're continuing to anticipate solid performance going forward and the Infrastructure business we acquired in Q4 last year is making a solid contribution. Most importantly, the underlying need to repair and upgrade the nation's aging bridges and highways is as compelling as ever. This is a crucial responsibility for the states, as well as Washington, D.C. State governments are recognizing the transportation infrastructure problems that they're facing are becoming more acute. As a result, we're seeing a growing number of them beginning to focus on ways to generate new tax revenue at the state level, specifically for infrastructure projects over and above funds coming from the federal government, which bodes well for this part of our business. In our industrial markets, we're anticipating a continuation of near-term challenges. While volume is flat compared to 2012, we expect our industrial sales to be down 6% organically for the full year 2013 versus 2012, which takes into account the 7% organic sales contraction in the first 9 months of 2013 compared with the first 9 months of 2012. Including acquisitions, we now continue to expect our company-wide industrial sales for 2013 to increase 2% year-over-year. Longer-term, we're well positioned for eventual recovery in industrial demand and prospects for that recovery appear to be improving. The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index or PMI for September marked its highest reading for the year, with 11 of 18 manufacturing industries reporting growth. Comments from the supply executive survey were generally positive and optimistic about increasing demand and improving business conditions. We're seeing similar optimism anecdotally in discussions with our major customers, which is another positive indicator for 2014. Our sales growth for the first 9 months of 2013 have been driven to a large extent by our recent acquisitions, so I want to comment on our position relative to acquisitions. Acquisitions will continue to be a factor in our growth initiatives. With our strong balance sheet, positive cash position, improved liquidity and positive cash flow generation, we're in a good position to participate in the acquisition arena. We're continuing to look for acquisitions that meet the disciplined criteria that we've developed. Key to these criteria are to improve our return on invested capital, improving our margins while providing new organic growth opportunities. Our focus is to acquire companies that build on our existing product leadership positions where possible or companies that allow us to establish new product leadership positions in new product areas. In the case of the 4 most recent acquisitions, each, while smaller in size, have all met our key acquisition criteria. We feel good about our ability to identify, assess and integrate new businesses to drive return improvement, margin expansion and provide organic growth opportunities. Summing up, looking across all of our markets, we believe the prospects today are better than they were a year ago. With the operational improvement we've made this past year, we have stronger capabilities to capitalize on the improvement in end market activity that we expect we will see unfolding. We look forward to finishing 2013 as strong as possible and improving on this record in 2014. At this point, we'll open the call to any questions that any of you may have.